I F**k'd up. sorry.

hey wow 2024 is behind us happy New Year

in this video we're going to talk a

little bit about strategies for

2025 and what I think might be a good

opportunity for making money in 2025 so

we'll talk about all of that but uh

first I think it's worth noting that I

may have been well I think I was but it

depends on what happens in the future a

little bit early which is much like what

my wife tells me I always come through

but I'm often too early and so my big F

up in 2024 was probably being just too

early to what I still think is coming

our way which is not ideal because we

don't want it to happen give you a quick

overview of some of these calls where it

went right where it went wrong but then

I really want to talk about what I think

uh is the future and uh what will do

well uh in 2025 so we'll talk about them

uh so first uh you know this I mean many

of you have been watching the channel

for a while you already know that we

called the crash in 2022 once the

Federal Reserve had the disastrous

January U-turn that led to the sort of

big flip-flop that people said where

it's like oh my gosh Kevin sold really

grateful I did because it saved a lot of

downside uh then I did start reing at

the end of

2022 and I called for a Nike Swoosh

style recovery as I thought that people

would sort of get used to the idea that

inflation was actually falling that we

were starting to get disinflation not

necessarily deflation like price is

coming down but that inflation was

mostly under control and I said there

would probably be a euphoric rally at

the end of that Nike Swoosh recovery

well we got the Nike Swoosh recovery and

now a lot of people say we're in the

euphoric rally especially for Tesla and

companies like paler but I didn't time

it perfectly and this is unfortunate

because even though these were all

absolutely correct I ended up uh

believing that we were closer to

recession during the Japanese Yen carry

trade crisis in August when we started

getting some pretty nasty employment

data and unfortunately that led to too

early of a

recession uh hedge trade if you will

which the Hedge trade for recession is

really simple you buy long bonds

short-term bonds don't do that great

because their price doesn't move up that

much in a recession so usually longer

term bonds do better and this is where a

lot of people plow into trades like a

TLT the problem is and this is what I

didn't expect the next few months of

employment data got boosted by

government jobs data and frankly the

election of Donald Trump led to fears

that we were going to get a second wave

of inflation whether from tariffs or

from businesses just potentially booming

under Trump again and people still today

believe that and because people have

that belief there are a lot of

Institutions and hedge funds that have

started to short and continue to short

longer term treasury bonds that

depresses the price for a trade like a

TLT which isn't great obviously if

you're using that as a hedge trade now

how could potentially TLT be used as a

hedge trade well this is what you have

to evaluate its benefits for uh take a

look at this this is how TLT works well

so TLT goes up when bond prices go up

that should be pretty simple right this

also correlates to the 10-year treasury

yield even though TLT is really like a

20 25.5 year maturity roughly last time

I checked uh the it correlates to the

10-year treasury basically longer uh end

coming down so when I started making

this trade in July I actually made money

on this trade you know it was up

somewhere around 25% which was great

unfortunately once the FED started

cutting rates we started seeing this

trade get killed why well because as the

FED cut 100 BP we saw the 10year move up

100 basis points as opposed to

continuing to move down which is really

unfortunate

because there really aren't actually

ingrained signs that we're going to have

a Resurgence of inflation

at businesses whether you look at

Services whether you look at uh consumer

packaged Goods or just basically things

people are buying Autos TVs products

companies are selling there's more uh

evidence of deflation than there is

evidence of a second wave of inflation

but that doesn't mean the trade still

isn't getting decimated so TLT while it

was up at

1.25% now it's down like 50% in terms of

a trade but here's how it works s uh TLT

works really well when there's a

recession much like gold TLT also

works okay in a soft Landing TLT Works

terribly if the economy keeps booming

and so far it's felt like the economy

has just kept booming now this is really

good for startups so don't get me wrong

as a somebody who runs a startup like

house hack I'm really really excited

that the economy at the moment seems

like it's booming now I don't think it

will last mostly I'm not going to go

through all the whole recession thesis

in this video but basically I think on

the horizon the storm clouds are there

27 weeks unemployed Rising unemployment

claims Rising unemployment rate uh the

fact that most of the jobs that we've

created have been government jobs right

before the election which make sense

they don't get seasonally adjusted out

but they're probably overstating the

amount of actual jobs our economy is

creating given that Bloomberg

intelligence also thinks we are

overstating payrolls by somewhere around

90 to 110,000 jobs per month which it

just stated a couple days ago you're

kind of in a place where at some point

the Reckoning is probably going to come

in the jobs Market which I I really

really don't want to see because I

remember what it was like in 2008 when

everybody around me couldn't get a job

they were losing their jobs

unfortunately uh and you know obviously

people's portfolios were getting

decimated things were really bad

people don't like that sort of

environment uh it's a really really

tough and depressing time that's why

sometimes recessions are called

depressions well also because prices

fall more into depression but anyway

when unemployment Rises really

substantially you can rapidly go into a

depression and unfortunately I think the

storm clouds of that are

building and artificial intelligence

will just add fuel to the fire of

whatever recession or depression we have

that's because usually in a recession or

depression you have prices going down

you have rapid deflation which yes many

of us are going to want that deflation

but it's not going to do us any good

unless we have a bunch of money saved up

because if we don't have money saved up

and we don't have a job because we've

lost our job then you're not going to be

able to afford those lower prices anyway

which sucks because then it's like oh if

real estate prices go down which we'll

talk about that in a moment or stock

prices go down how are you going to buy

if you don't have cash or a job to keep

funding that right so uh this is where

what's interesting

is as a hedge TLT actually works really

well in a recession uh much like gold

but the problem is gold in my opinion

doesn't work as well in a deflationary

recession it usually works well when

you're facing inflation like in the

1970s either way though gold and TLT can

work really well here TLT also works

okay in a soft Landing Gold's obviously

come up it started stagnating but

recently we've started seeing a little

bit of a pickup uh risk assets obviously

do very poorly in a recession right uh

risk assets down this would be I mean

just think back to the Japanese Yen

carry trade how much pain there was in

the stock market and how quickly there

was pain in the stock market uh when it

looked like oh my gosh we were starting

to price in a recession the stock market

can fall very very very rapidly

especially at where valuation sit now

you know paler trading for like a 10 Peg

it's insane it's a great company don't

get me wrong same thing with Tesla great

company but the valuations are just

kooky right now so there is a lot of

risk sort of in and there's also this

fear that people think hey you know if

you want to take profits maybe you take

profits in

2025 because hopefully Donald Trump will

lower price you know lower taxes no

guarantees though but some people have

argued that there'll be less profit

taking at the end of 24 and More in 2025

because of this uh but anyway what's

really interesting uh about all of this

is artificial intelligence could enhance

the future recession because it's going

to be so much the barrier is going to be

potentially so much higher for

businesses to hire uh

workers because they can use artificial

intelligence to enhance the productivity

of their existing workers and

potentially reduce the need to hire more

workers think about customer service

agents I mean they're getting wrecked by

artificial intelligence Clara has just

completely stopped hiring people and

they expect to lay off as much as 75% of

their staff thanks to artificial

intelligence which I also think this is

just my belief but I also think that the

AI boom uh has has delivered us very

very smart

encyclopedias basically a quality

version of Siri but you know in a voice

generated GPT essentially these are

fantastic as far as how much they're

going to actually help us with drug

Discovery or anything really Beyond like

customer service and encyclopedic

information I'm not convinced I don't

think the progression that we are seeing

in artificial intelligence is

exponential I think it's more like a

stair stepper where it's kind of like

wow GPT moment and you know everything

kind of ran up to that moment and then

we kind of stagnate there for a while

which probably won't do too well for

continued server expansion chip

expansion you know valuations at

companies like maybe Nvidia AMD or

whatever they're great if we can

continue to sell the amount of chips

that we're selling today and yes

nvidia's valuation is supported by

earnings today but what happens when we

are no longer buying as many Nvidia

chips because we don't really need to

keep that Nvidia or AI boom Going if all

of this comes together with you know the

layoffs in election workers the slowdown

in artificial intelligence the

realization that the job that we've been

getting has been bad the realization

that the inverted yield curve usually

pushes us into a recession once we un

invert by 50 to 90 basis points which

we're like 30 basis points un inverted

now so we're getting closer and uh when

we look at the trajectory of employment

data

and you know once these revisions all

come in things aren't really looking

good for avoiding a recession which

continues to make TLT a desirable trade

in my opinion as a hedge the

non recession play though is go make

money at your work as much as you can

you know make make money while while uh

the sun is shining make hey while the

sun is shining as they say uh and this

is what I always motivate hopefully you

to do is think of what can you do to

look at 2025 and say I'm going to make

as much money as possible so that way I

can invest if prices fall otherwise

maybe you're buying the dip who knows I

think it's also worth mentioning that I

think some banks and mortgage lenders

may end up doing really well in 2025 if

a you don't have a residential housing

crash which I don't think you have B you

continue to get deflation or low

inflation which I think we were going to

get especially as joblessness continues

to ramp up and three you end up in a

place where you start leaning more

towards a recessionary environment and

fed is actually forced to really drive

down rates those would in my opinion not

only help mortgage companies do really

well especially those that focus on

residential loans less likely to default

but then they can capture refinances but

could potentially also help smaller

Banks so I'm paying a lot of attention

to smaller banks in 2025 and I'll be

sending some alerts to course members on

specific banks that I'm looking at

because I think as rates start trending

down banks that haven't gotone broken

yet would actually be supported by

Falling rates refinancing an upsurge in

lending so while I'm usually not super

excited about the financial sector of

the S&P 500 2025 could be the year for

banks mortgage companies and bonds so

keep an eye on that I think the Federal

Reserve is convinced or I say committed

to not allowing a single Bank to fail

some ideas for you to uh think

over but 2025 is very exciting to me

because while there were some good wins

in

2024 I wish I had more I know this

sounds crazy but let me go through some

of these so I did some wonderful things

with in in 2024 and hopefully they're

motivating to you but I had triplets so

I have seven children now very excited

about that summer is alive which is

great that took a lot out of me when uh

there were three months of uncertainty

for her we raised over eight figures for

house hack and deployed over $50 million

into properties and Renovations we also

just started Adu development and raw

Land Development which is really cool I

think uh we're going to launch our

regulation a offering hopefully in

February for non-accredited

investors uh so if you want to be a part

of house act stay tuned for that no

guarantees on the timing of that yet

it's all sort of SEC dependent uh but

house Haack for me is going to be a big

driver in 2025 very excited about that

uh I don't actually see real estate

prices especially in single family

collapsing even if there's a recession

so unfortunately I think a lot of people

might lose their jobs and we might

become more of a renter Nation than I

see real estate home prices collapsing I

could see Star prices falling

substantially more rapidly than home

prices collapsing I actually think if

there's a recession interest rates will

truly come down rapidly I believe that

by 2032 we'll have lower interest rates

than we've ever seen before and owning

real estate will be most valuable

because your ability to refinance these

at interest rates under 2% in my opinion

we're going there uh will be really

desirable and actually supportive of

asset prices for houses but not for

tenants they'll be supportive for people

who can actually afford to buy those

homes uh specifically wealthier

landlords now I think that's bad but I

mentioned this as a signal to you to

consider getting into real estate sooner

rather than later I don't see that there

are significant defaults coming to

single family real estate or residential

1 to4 real estate now remember what we

do at house we we want to be the best

landlord in America and eventually even

sell these homes that we renovate that

are unlivable to tenants so we don't

want anybody to think that we're you

know taking homes away we're actually

bringing supply to the market we're

taking homes that are unlivable and

bringing them to the markets which which

helps lower rents and then if we end up

selling well then we're contributing

more inventory to home owners right so

we think as America's best landlord we

uh we're providing a true service

especially if we're building adus and

adding inventory and Supply but I do

encourage you to get into real estate uh

and I want you to know I'm putting my

money where my mouth is I just invested

$5 million of my personal money and

Lauren's personal money into house

hack's latest fundraising round because

we believe so much in what we're doing

at house and we believe so much in real

estate as the True Value going forward

especially where stock valuations are

right now it just it doesn't make sense

to take $5 million and go I'm going to

buy stocks right now in my opinion that

doesn't mean I'm not you know funding my

children's retirement accounts uh which

potentially could go into the S&P 500

but you know certain like 529 plans you

have to pick you know basic options that

you get from Fidelity you don't get too

much discretion but uh you know I

actually had my children's 529 plants go

into bank deposits for right now you

know they yield 4 and a half% or

whatever it's like a money market and

eventually if there's any kind of

Correction then I'll take the money and

take the kids uh funds and buy the dip

on like the S&P 500 or whatever but not

right now I'll wait for us to get closer

to the 200 day moving average uh but um

Adu development big fan of it right now

I think they're a great opportunities to

do that and I think contractors have

enough time right now there's there's

not like I think there's a lot of

availability for cont Contracting right

now that's at least what I'm seeing uh

and there's a lot of desire for real

estate agents to send you deals and I

think we'll see more inventory come to

the market now that we're in q1 which

will be very good for real estate and

opportunities to buy since there

sometimes in December it should be a

good time to buy but there's so little

to choose from it's kind of like uh like

really like do I want to settle on that

so then you just wait for like January

February things really ramp up with home

buyers buying usually March so you still

have January February 2024 I hit 16

years with Lauren which is really cool

in December actually launched a robotics

VC we raised over seven figures we're um

uh investing a good chunk into a

robotics uh private Venture uh

opportunity that that I've already been

invested in and they're doing another

really big round a VC round and we're

going to be part of that so that's very

exciting 2024 I became a pilot started

golfing and bowling with Max and

teaching them skiing Max went from

skiing on greens to uh doing his F and

falling on greens to doing his first uh

Black Diamond run just yesterday which

was very very very cool stopped drinking

and about 100 days of uh not drinking uh

it's been tempting but then also not so

it's kind of gotten to sort of this

weird place where I'm like I'm good it's

interesting I've become a lot more

patient uh reading more able to sort of

self-reflect more without taking

criticism to heart I I feel like

everything I do is of the most utmost

integrity and yeah I make mistakes

you know being early on TLT wasn't a

great move but for what it's worth I

still think uh it it is the the move uh

for the next year we'll see though uh

we'll see what comes out with this job

data over the next uh probably two or

three months if we can if we could get

through the next two or three months

without recessionary jobs data we might

be okay we might be able to dodge it and

actually stick this off Landing so the

next the next quarter here will be

pretty critical for

that uh we also in 2024 bought the house

next door which is kind of cool because

it avoids sort of destabilizing the kids

when I was a a child I uh moved

endlessly and I never really had a

stable friend group or school so it's

really nice to be in one particular

place somebody actually sent us these

was very nice they have an Etsy store

somebody sent us meet Dad and uh meet

Mom so if they're watching this video

you should leave a comment with your

Etsy store and then I can pin it that'

be maybe maybe y'all can find it and

upload it to meet Mom it was cool thank

you for sending that to me very

cool uh what else 2024 I launched a new

course called uh trumponomics for 2025

how to invest in Tax Strategies uh for

Real Estate uh stocks trade alerts and

everything that's over at meetkevin.com

I've uh Got a New Year's sale going on

through Friday you're welcome to check

that out launch the free Alpha report

you can get that over at M kevin.com

significantly worked on something

special with um finra as well some

broker deal work so that's pretty

exciting I'm going to keep that going

this year and continue building the team

that we have done a lot of consolidating

and refining of our team we've got a

really really good coure team now so

very grateful for that we're going to

keep this going in 25 I think for

YouTube my goal is to get a lot more

content out as well uh I in 2024 I

realized I posted a pul tree 1.1 times

per day which is Fourth of my 2020 and

21 average so I really got to step it up

again I want to get into I've read a lot

of your comments on what you'd like to

see so I want to focus more on news

analysis real estate uh specific stock

analysis for example like hey micro

strategy they've been buying stocks for

12 they've been buying Bitcoin for 12

week straight are they going to buy for

the 13th week straight they've got about

$45 billion of Bitcoin and their market

cap has fallen to just $71 billion they

used to sell for like a 3X multiple of

the Bitcoin that that they have now

they're selling for just 1.5 times a

multiple find that very interesting but

they also issue a lot of convertible

debt which the cool thing about

convertible debt is if the stock keeps

skyrocketing cool people get to

participate in some of the upside after

I think this the stock at this point

would have to probably double or more

for people to actually get some upside

in latest convertible Bond rounds that

they did and they're at 0% interest

which is crazy uh but if you know

Bitcoin or micro strategy don't keep

going up then into 2029 or 2030 or

whatever then at least people are

promised their Capital back via

convertible Bond unless of course micro

strategy goes bankrupt that similar

Style by the way is what we're doing

with house Haack we raised money uh for

accredited investors at house hack.com

with a convertible Bond where if you buy

it you get paid 5%

interest and you get 100% of The Upside

in the stock for whatever it goes up uh

and and uh it's it's pegged to what we

think is relatively low valuation which

is really exciting so uh we think we're

giving people a really good deal but

it's win-win you know investors get 5%

but we're also borrowing for Real Estate

at 5% which is cheaper than what Market

rates are right now so we see that as

win-win for both sides but anyway uh the

reggae round hopefully will be similar

stay tuned for that in about

February uh you know we're supposed to

hit a Deb ceiling again before inaugura

before inauguration day which is crazy

but anyway uh these are some of the sort

of looking back to 2024 items 2025

really looking forward to again more

content on YouTube bringing you more

value bringing you hopefully more

inspiration whether it's updates on

what's going on with hedge trades or

just long-term Investments uh not just

long-term Investments but where there

might be Value Place where there are

updates in the real estate market what's

going on in the news world at the same

time I want to balance that with spend

more time with my boys who are now well

Max is about to turn seven and then Jack

who's nine again why I've started

bowling and golfing with Jack and Max

and

skiing uh I plan to as a pilot as well

get my uh instrument rating multi-engine

rating one day maybe we'll even get the

uh ability to fly the plane that I own

which is a jet but you've got to get

typed for that and so that that's a

little bit more

challenging uh so lot of exciting things

going on but uh I'm not going to hold

back 2025 some of the goals I've got are

to wake up and and these are some some

of the sort of uh how should I put it uh

um new I wouldn't really call them New

Year's resolutions but I just call them

sort of daily objectives that I have

I'll put it that way so one of them is

to uh try to as much as possible and

this is challenging be calm around the

kids uh sort of like stoic to to the

madness and that's because especially

when you're traveling alone like I

traveled alone with Jack and Max for a

5-day ski trip and it's really difficult

when let's say you're trying to solve a

problem whether it's you got an email or

a phone call or even just fixing your

ski Booth but then Jack has a bunch of

Demands and then Max has a bunch of

Demands D D D D and and so responding

calmly to this especially when things

are frustrating can be very hard but I

think it's really important as a dad to

grow and and so always maintain calmness

so I've been getting better at that

although I want to be even more

perfect I uh will make it a goal every

single day to just continue waking up

early some of this has been messed up

with ski vacation and piloting and such

but I have been waking up consistently

around 3:00 a.m. want to get back into

that routine so uh also you know try try

my best to make sure I sleep at least 6

to 7 hours a night really important once

you start getting under six you start

having a lot of problems things just

don't go well uh as well as of course

continuing to focus on health and

fitness making sure to get that cardio

in getting some body weight work in uh

but also maybe free weight exercise or

uh that would be very good uh and uh uh

and ultimately continuing to deliver

value to y'all with the Daily Wealth

email which hasn't been as consistent in

the last month of 2024 and that is my

fault uh that will be back to

consistency as well as the uh Alpha

report uh every day the market is open

as far as plans for live streams uh I

think what will work best at the moment

is doing Market open live streams for

course

members and going back to somewhat more

of a Consolidated live stream schedule

where I'm consistently live for course

members uh but really only going live if

there's breaking news for the public

mostly because what I find is if I

go live on a public video and then I go

live for course members uh and uh you

know then I've got to get my team

started all of a sudden it my entire

morning gets a lot less productive and

it's a lot harder to continue to produce

actually produce content uh and I feel

like that actually ends up robbing my

viewers uh value that I could be

providing so we'll be consolidating that

and uh remember you could just have

lifetime access to those course member

live streams if you want just join

trumponomics over at me

kevin.com so yeah those are some of my

plans those are some of my plans some of

my

goals uh some of uh the the tasks that

I'm focused on and uh we'll take it from

there so that's uh that's a to a great

2025 uh wish the best for everybody and

and honestly I do wish that we uh we

avoid a recession I don't think uh it

will go very very well I think it'll be

pretty dark and dirty but uh hey you

know what I always like to say don't get

caught up in your oopsies try to focus

on your W's instead because otherwise

you just end up depressive and broken

and uh ultimately if the only thing

you're sad about is a dollar in a bank

account or in your stock brokerage

account at at least you're not dead or

you know have some terrible terminal

illness or your family's dead or dying

or something right like things could be

a whole lot worse my heart goes out for

example to the people who died in a

terrorist attack today uh horrible

so I don't know hopefully that adds some

inspiration so thank you so much for

watching and uh we'll keep bringing you

value appreciate you all do not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see go congratulations

man you have done so much people love

you people look up to you Kevin PA there

financial analyst and YouTuber meet

Kevin always great to get your

take see you soon goodbye and good luck