tesla's new car announcement

Tesla plans Cyber Cap Asia-Pacific debut

in Shanghai at a November expo. Uh this

is news of today from Reuters and

they're going to showcase the Cyber Cap

at the China International Import Expo

in Shanghai that runs from the 5th

through the 10th. Okay. Uh it's unclear

if Tesla has plans to roll out the Cyber

Cab on Chinese roads. Actually would be

kind of brilliant because in America the

twodoor car market is very bad. The

Honda Civic Coupe, for example, was

discontinued. People don't love the idea

of a twodoor car in America. The frank

reality is most of our cars are utilized

by, you know, one person. So,

realistically, a lot of cars don't need

four seats, five seats, or whatever.

Realistically, we only need a two seat

car. So, the Cyber Cap is great for

that. But the problem is with a

two-door, two seat car, you're you

really don't

have an American consumer that ends up

actually throwing money at it because

then they go, "Oh, but what if I want to

bring my kids or my friends or my family

or whatever." So, you really need people

that are typically going to be Tesla

investors. Then I'm going go, "Well,

well, I'll just buy a second car to

support the cause." Uh, but they don't

actually need it. Uh, and so the Chinese

market could be better for that. Uh so I

think that might be why you're getting a

cybercap potential demo in China because

a lowerc cost vehicle in China where you

have so much competition amongst lowerc

cost vehicles would be critical. Now

Tesla sells about 650ish,000

vehicles in China which is a substantial

uh amount of their sales that go to

China. We already know this. The problem

with this is Tesla uh Tesla's Chinese

Chinese sales are declining relative to

other businesses. is. And so this could

be a way to sort of juice some of those

Tesla China sales. Uh because relative

to other automakers, their sales are

declining. Uh not just in China, but

also in Europe. In Europe, sales are

down 10% year-over-year for Teslas and

down 17.5% year-over-year. So, so you

need to juice this. Part of this is

because you have Chinese companies now

making an entrance into European markets

and their sales are actually rocketing

in European markets. So, you know, the

Chinese are taking over uh and China is

at the same time as this sort of like

one-year truth is going on with China

and Donald Trump, you are seeing uh

other countries in Europe fade away from

the United States in favor of China

because you can actually get cheap

products from China. So you're seeing

this this almost coalescence between

China and Europe, China and and other

countries around the world, China and

South America, South American countries

as part of this trade war. So you know

this could be why they're looking for a

cyber cab event uh in in China. So take

a look at this. Uh unveiled by Elon last

October, the AV was uh tentatively

launched in Austin with invite only

access. This is because of the robo taxi

plan. The Shanghai showcase will come

even as Chinese companies such as BU and

Pony AI have been conducting robo taxi

trials in various cities for years.

Okay, that's fine. I mean, we do that

here in America as well uh you know via

Whimo and of course our robo taxi

rollout uh in like Austin or San

Francisco with supervised drivers. But

anyway, uh here's an article from uh

electric vehicles.com. Tesla to begin

public road test for CyberCap before 26

production. vehicle was cited in Los

Altos, California. Part of this, by the

way, like they do this on purpose. These

are called controlled leaks, uh, and

then they'll send, you know, little the

pictures to Tesla influencers. So,

basically, uh, you know, you get

insiders in the company. They're like,

"Hey, don't tell anyone I sent this to

you, but take a look at this leaked

image." You know, you're like, "Oh, I

got a leaked image." And then you post

it. It's basically a way of like

revealing information without having to

wait for the public to find it

themselves. Uh, and so this is very

normal and it's not a surprise that it's

coming right ahead of the shareholder

vote because Elon's going to try to do

everything he can to drive up attention

in business. This is why Robin's going

on the, you know, circuit of uh going on

CNBC and Bloomberg to to push the

shareholder vote. And so a lot of people

obviously expect that retail is going to

overwhelmingly approve uh the uh uh the

stockcom plan for Elon because I mean

people broadly view it as hey what's

good for Elon will be good for me. Uh

Elon posted this 20 hours ago. Just saw

this in a conference room at Tesla

Global Engineering Headquarters in

PaloAlto. Now, why would he showcase,

you know, essentially the Cyber Cab uh

in in in this post here if it wasn't

sort of a mission statement for the

company of like the next phase? Uh and

that's I think what is creating a lot of

excitement here. The question is will it

make money? Uh and that's a big

question. uh because you know we've seen

this before and a lot of people see this

as broadly as just FUD but it is very

interesting to comment on an internal

Tesla analysis found that robo taxi

would lose money and you'll never guess

what Elon Musk did in response actually

we probably will guess but understand

for a moment that over time I actually

don't believe that Tesla operating the

robo taxi network will be the most

beneficial for Tesla I actually think

they would be better off manufacturing

ing the car at the highest margins that

they can and then selling the vehicles

in mass numbers and quantities to

companies like Uber or or just

individual operators mostly because I

think the margins on selfdraw on sort of

like taxi services will really compress

because you're going to get companies

that want market share over margins. I

think Google and Whimo wants market

share over margins because get this.

Okay, ready for this? I think in the

future you're going to Rokuify

taxi services. So Roku sells TVs at a

loss so they can sell you advertisements

on the software inside the taxi. You'll

have a captive audience. You'll have

larger and larger screens, especially

when you get rid of the steering wheel

and and you have no need for a driver

compartment. you'll really just have a

box that's a moving ad for people and

you have this captive audience in there

and you know you'll be able to pay extra

to have a ride without ads. I think

that's how in the future taxi rides will

be monetized. I don't actually think the

money will be in doing the actual

driving service because the cost of the

electricity or or whatever uh will

frankly be too too great uh as well as

the maintenance of the actual vehicles.

But back in October of 2024, Tesla

investors uh saw the Wii robot event uh

and then we saw uh the peak into the

Cyber Cab uh product came with limited

details. That's fine. We subsequently

saw spotting. So that's fine. But the

information found that an internal

analysis at Tesla suggested that the

cyber cab was unlikely to sell well or

become profitable. Right. Well, this is

we don't actually I don't believe that

the Cyber Cab this is a concern that I

have. I think unfortunately the Cyber

Cab will sell much like the Cyber Truck.

Now, I own the Cybertruck and I think

it's a phenomenal vehicle. I mean,

you've you've seen me, you know, uh post

pictures of the Cybertruck. I love this

thing. I think it's a utility machine,

but you know, not a lot of people are

buying it. The sales for the Cybertruck

have have really been a flop and it's

really sad. uh because it's a great

vehicle. Like here was me on October

25th, which is just five days ago.

Lowe's dashing for house hack again with

Jack, you know, we got, you know, same

uh company, Reinvest obviously, but we

got the branding on here. We got the

boxes, uh the racks on the top, you

know, we got the whole thing's wrapped

obviously, but like it's a functional

great vehicle, but the problem is people

aren't buying it. So, we can love the

Cyber Cab. Uh, but when a functional

cyber truck isn't selling, I mean, this

is me like in a very disorganized manner

just throwing a bunch of medicine

cabinets on top of what I actually did

have organized. You can see the various

different racks I use. I can carry

vanities and the back rack or whatever

over here in like this is great. It's a

fantastic tool. The problem is the cyber

cab is even less useful than that. Uh

and and that's why I get worried about

them mass-producing a cyber cab as

opposed to uh you know a like a model 2

or model 3 that's just paired down. But

anyway, Musk buried the report instead

of facing reality. We have a lot of

modeling that showed the payback around

full self-driving in robo taxi was going

to be slow. That's a red flag especially

when right according to Rohan Patel

that's a that's a problem especially

when right now Tesla's selling for like

a six- peg. you've got a lot of

enthusiasm on humanoid robotics uh and

and future profits that we're trying to

pull forward without seeing the real

growth and profitable endeavors today.

That's a problem. Uh Tesla's former head

of business development and policy who

left the company last year told the

outlet, "It's going to be choppy. It's

going to be very very hard outside of

the US and given the regulatory

environment or lack of regulatory

environment, right? Because countries

like you know Germany make it even

harder to do this." Per the information,

the internal analysis was based on

Musk's own hairbrain assumptions that

individuals would buy cars, but a large

portion of the sales would go to fleet

operators and the vehicles would mostly

be used for ride sharing. I think that's

a great way to do it. I actually agree

with Elon there that you want it to go

to uh fleet operators. Ultimately, I

think Elon is just uninterested in

making a Volkswagen Golf type car,

right? I think the board has actually

been pushing Elon to do this. Uh, and so

I think this is honestly dated at this

point. I mean, obviously this is from

from April back when they killed the

Model 2, but more recently, you've had

Robin talk about new models coming out.

Uh, I I really hope it's not just the

Cyber Cap. That's my hope. Uh,

unfortunately, you know, this is

somewhat implying that it's just going

to be the Cyber Cap.

I don't see it as being a functional and

high seller, especially since we just

even with version 14, we just aren't at

the robo taxi level yet. Uh, and so

unfortunately in the near term, I do

think that Tesla has a good shot of

going up uh following the vote. Uh, so

once once the vote comes in, I think

that's probably the near-term high for

Tesla. Uh, and it wouldn't surprise me

to see a revisit down to like the 295

line over time, which is uh, you know,

bearish. I would say call it like 2026.

Uh, so anyway, you know, some some

thoughts on this sort of like cyber cab.

It it doubles down on actually what I'm

most nervous about Tesla doing. Uh,

let's see what some of your comments are

here. Uh, somebody here writes, "Robbo

taxis have a driver up front nowhere

near Whimo yet." I mean, this is true at

this point. Uh, so if Elon comp package

gets voted up or down again or whatever

that if it gets voted down again, Elon

seems like the type of person who was

going to rage quit. I I think that's

like great marketing for the plan. I

don't actually think he will rage quit.

Uh, but I I do think they're using that

as uh as as a you know, encouragement

for people to vote. Somebody says it's a

great time to buy the Tesla car, not the

stock. Uh, somebody else says, "Launch a

subscription service monthly and Tesla

Cyber Cab you ride anywhere. Problem is

government regulations could limit that

for now, right?" Yeah, you're really up

against, you know, remember with with

Tesla's original launches with their

electric vehicles, they had the

government supporting them, showering

them with money, right? Uh unfortunately

uh right now we're in an environment of

uh pressure, a weak consumer, a weak

regulatory environment, a uh you know

government that is not supportive

towards electric vehicles, a government

that's not that supportive to fully

autonomous vehicles at this point. Uh

and and then rising competition. Uh so

so anyway

uh so

how bullish on automation and robotics

but bearish on Tesla, right? Uh so I

think that's a fair question to rec

reconcile. So uh and and and it's

evident to me that you know you're not a

course member and so I have to fill in

the gap, right? But here's what I say to

course members. I probably should just

keep this to course members, but it's

what I say to course members. When I

look at a company like Tesla that's

trading for a six peg, I would rather

invest in a cheap pickaxe play than in

the hope play. So, I think unfortunately

that right now Tesla stock is a hope

play, but I'd rather invest in the

pickaxe sellers that are selling the

components that would go into uh Optimus

Robots because it is not a foregone

conclusion that the Optimus robot is

going to be the best robot, right? And I

think that Tesla proved to us that they

were the best electric vehicle and the

best ADAS suite, but it is not a

foregone conclusion that they were going

to be the best robo taxi software. It's

not a foregone conclusion that they're

going to be the best robotics play. We

don't know that. We knew it was the best

car because in 2017 when I bought my

Black X and I loved riding my Black X, I

could touch and feel that car and go.

People don't understand how great of a

revolution full self-driving is, you

know, supervised, which is fine. You

know, autopilot, whatever you want to

call it, it's basically the same thing.

Uh, people didn't realize that

revolution at that point. And so, think

about this. In 2017, I go buy Tesla and

I start making daily videos almost about

how amazing Tesla is. And what you have

is uh me going, "Here's a great product

that's making a lot of money for the

company right now that has government

incentives. This is a great stock to

buy." What we have right now is here is

hope of a great product in the future,

but we don't know if Tesla's going to be

the one to provide it at a valuation

that already prices in all of the hope

for that happening. That is a complete

completely opposite scenario from Tesla

2017. Completely opposite. Like the

numbers that I have to do right now to

justify Tesla remind me of what I had to

do with Square to justify

even remotely considering Square. Uh so

which is now Block which is now ticker

XYZ which is just like it is just

stupid. But look at this. So Block which

by the way this year fell off this like

bottom support line over here again. By

the way, write this line down if you

don't have it yet on the stock. 4977. I

mean, look at that. You've had like

three near I mean, it's not perfect.

You've got a near perfect here, near

perfect here. But anyway, that seems to

be a pretty dang strong support line

over here for a block. But anyway, I

remember back over here like the magic

that you had to put into a spreadsheet

to justify it's still a bad investment

then obviously it's way down. But that's

the point is like back here to make to

justify the spreadsheet for block you

had to do some crazy assumptions and I

hate to say it but like part of what I'm

seeing now is I have to go in here and

go oh it's not going to be a

manufacturer it's going to be a service

play uh and you know I have to assume

that we're going to do we're going to

double nearly double our energy plays

we're going to sell 2 million optimuses

by 2030 that could be really ambitious

right we're going to double the number

of vehicles we're doing right now at 4

million vehicles. Uh we're going to have

margins that are uh uh you know 25%

gross margins on the Optimus and 18%

margin on the vehicles. We're we're not

we're not at 18% gross margin on

vehicles right now, right? We're like

15%. Right? So and and that gets me to

564 in 2030 with those assumptions. You

know, if I now go in here and I say,

"Okay, well, if I go to a margin of just

15% on just the automotive side, I go

down to $491 on the stock in five

years." You see what I mean? If I now

kill Optimus out of here, I put Optimus

at zero because we're still not doing

Optimus, but we're selling 4 million

vehicles because we're putting the Cyber

Cab in here, which is a cheaper vehicle.

We throw that in there at a 15% gross

margin, I'm at a $324 stock, and that's

at a services margin, right? If I take

the the manufacturing multiple, which it

should be, it's a $200 stock. So, this

is what I'm saying. It's like I can love

Tesla, the company, like I love getting

my software update. I just got a

software update on the Cybertruck

yesterday. And like on the inside, I'm

kind of like giddy. I'm like, "Oh man, I

want to go out there and I want to go

ride my Cybertruck cuz I want to see,

you know, what the latest progress is on

on, you know, FSD, right?" Like, I'm

excited about that. as as a consumer,

I'm like, dude, like I feel like I go in

there and I refresh the Tesla store to

see if they've got more merch I can buy.

Like, you know, I'm like a shill. Uh but

uh but but then you look at the

fundamentals, I'm like, I'll go buy

something else, [laughter] right? Uh so

anyway, somebody here writes, "Cyber

security is a good investment." It's

funny you say that because in the Meet

Kevin app, we have a a community tab. Uh

it's sort of like our little internal uh

uh Discord replacement. And uh this

morning uh I replied to uh to one of the

community posts and I go I love cyber

security. We're big fans of like

Cloudflare for example. And the problem

is Cloudflare Net is the name of the

song has is an APEG. It's like well how

much do I justify

you know this these valuations on on

some of these plays? Like that's scary

right? So, uh, so there's a there's a

lot to be considered there. Uh, and and

I just don't know that that's the right

place. So, uh, anyway, uh, then what

what else do we have here? Uh, can you

explain financial engineering that had

Metapix? Oh, okay. Well, this is a

question about meta, a different topic.

I thought we were going to ask about

Tesla here. Let me see here. Uh, so

somebody writes, "BYD is better." Uh, I

mean BYD is just it's Chinese

manufacturing, right? Maybe we need to

do another Tesla FSD video. You know, I

have like uh like a portable live

streaming setup in in the Tesla. It' be

great. [laughter]

Uh, somebody here says, "Let me put this

analogy on Tesla stock price. You are

paying a high school prospect athletic

with an NFL salary." I mean, that's kind

of probably a good way to put it. You

know, I like this. [laughter]

So anyway, my take the thing is I I just

want to like say this one more thing

about Tesla and then we'll move on from

Tesla. But if you don't fully kneebend

to Tesla, uh Elon doesn't like you. You

know, I think that's why I I actually

consider this an honor. I actually think

it's an honor that I was blocked by Elon

on X and then unblocked by Elon because

it's like I am like so on the teeter

totter of of like not being good enough

for him. You know what I mean? And I

love it cuz I'm no I'm

You know who supports this channel and

you know who supports House Hack and

Reinvest my companies? You do. That's

it. Okay. like there's no there's no

like Elon sending money or whatever.

It's like it's it's 99% you guys. It's

great. Uh so, you know, and then we got

like the occasional helium sponsor or

something, right? Or baseline sponsor.

Okay, cool. But to 99%, does that really

matter? No. So, anyway, and those are

very very transparent, too. Uh, but I do

think like what we saw with that Neo

robot yesterday, I do think a lot of

people out there are getting paid to

shill like that Neo robot, which I think

is a total scam. And uh, and they're not

disclosing that they're getting paid or

they're getting massive perks, which

doesn't really matter in this market

because there's no regulator anymore. I

mean, Donald Trump basically gutted the

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau,

which would be the bureau that would

make sure that people are actually

properly disclosing their advertisements

via fair advertising. I mean, maybe the

Federal Trade Communication would would

step in, but you know, they're probably

all furled right now. So, you know, in a

weird way, the government shutdown

basically just licenses white collar,

you know, skirting of the law. Uh, and

it's sad cuz it shouldn't be that way.

Uh, and and you know, bad karma catches

up anyway. Fascinating chart by the

information listed robo taxi related

jobs by Tesla. Look at all these

locations. Austin, Texas, Dallas, Texas,

Houston, Texas, San Francisco, Los

Angeles, San Diego, Las Vegas, Miami,

Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix,

New York, Denver, and Chicago. If they

actually have like if they got licensing

in New York, that would be the gamecher

uh for Tesla. That would that is the

hardest place to pull this off. Uh and

we've got public sightings already of

these robo taxis in Orlando, Miami,

Phoenix, San Francisco. Though the

information here is dumping on Tesla a

little bit, saying that they're slow

walking some of their paperwork and that

it's unlikely that they're actually

going to be in eight metros by the end

of the year, unlikely they're going to

service half the US population by the

end of 2025. Uh but still, I mean, so

far, I mean, it like even though things

go on Elon time, it seems like they're

trying to work a little further towards

uh getting this robo taxi licensing in

place.

>> Why not advertise [music] these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.