what the f*&k...

November 14th you're probably going to

have to hold your breath until November

14th if you're at all invested in the

stock market and it sucks it's painful

we all love the beginning part of the

Year where it's like yeah yeah yeah yeah

Kevin okay volatile Nike Swoosh it's

just going straight up I like this tell

me more it's like well here's the

volatile part and the question is does

this last forever that's always the

feeling that we have when we look at

stocks and there down since July 19th

that means they're down through August

through September not through October

that's an entire quarter that's three

freaking months of Hell of basically

just bleed bleed bleed bleed bleed bleed

pain pain pain pain pain and then you're

looking and you're like come on man I

don't even make as much as I just lost

in a day you know that's very natural

it's very human it's psychologically

normal for us to go what the hell this

causes so much pain and then of course

what happens when we experience pain

well human nature says fight or flight

but how do you fight well you fight by

leaving dislikes on YouTube for stuff or

you flee by paper handing and and

selling and ending the pain accepting

that you know what I just I'll just have

less than I had and I'll accept I will

sell everything and end the pain because

by ending the pain the pain will stop

and it will make me feel as though I am

making the correct decision because

after all if you're experiencing pain

and you sell everything the pain stops

you've already realized the pain of the

loss of value now you just have the loss

of potential opportunity cost but in the

moment the feeling of pain stops and so

it reiterates the idea of during painful

and dark times we must sell and

rebalance when the truth is that's often

not always but often the worst thing to

do because there are two sides of being

an investor there's the human emotion

side which says I must stop the pain of

stocks going down I must end this

feeling of Despair this feeling that

makes me want to stay in bed not wake up

not go to work this depression of well

I'll just restart at zero that is a

normal human feeling but it's also

detached from the reality of an investor

the best words to consider are those of

Warren Buffett Warren Buffett who says I

don't care when I'm at a baseball game

and somebody's throwing pictures at me

and every ball is a ball I don't like

like in the stock market it's a price

like maybe you're a Tesla investor and

somebody's throwing balls at you going

you want to sell it for 100 want to sell

it for 69 want to sell it for 150 want

to sell it for 500 oh yeah I'll hit on

that one

bing that's Warren Buffett's analogy and

it's actually a great analogy it's that

the stock market is this perverse place

where we have this daily valuation this

Daily Baseball being thrown at us hey

you want to sell now how about now come

on man when can I tempt you to sell

maybe if I go lower I'll tempt you to

sell and that was always something that

Warren Buffett thought was the irony why

was it that as people threw worse

numbers at you you were more likely to

sell it's like going to a house and be

like sir your house is listed for 480 uh

I'll offer you 450 in the seller's like

go pound sand man it's let sit at 480

maybe I'll give you 475 but not 450 and

then you're like 43

how about 400 that's it 350 okay I can't

take it anymore here take it now the

difference is someone's

offer isn't the actual market value of

the property and the stock market the

value we see today is the actual market

value the difference though in waren

Buffett's world is well the stock market

is valued at what he believes it's

valued for and he waits for the market

to align with those prices so why

are markets potentially un aligning with

interest rate sensitive sectors well

it's simple folks they're giving up

they're throwing in the towel and it

makes sense it makes sense and I'll tell

you what I'm going to do about it but it

makes sense oil is at

$93 for the international blend WTI

sitting at

$9 we have gold Rising 1% we have crypto

Rising 2.8% on bitcoin ethereum 2.4

although that could be related to

coinbase suggesting oh we're about to

get an ETF approved here for crypto

which is great uh but gold Rising oil

Rising these are inflationary fears at

the same time that inflationary fears go

up we are seeing treasury yields at the

highest level that we have seen in

nearly 20 years the 10-year touched

5% this is remarkable the inverted yield

curve is getting

even more or becoming even more of a

sign that we're getting

close to the biggest pain yeah that's

unfortunate I I really I hate to say

that but the inverted yield curve says

we're getting closest to the worst

amount of pain the worst amount of pain

in the inverted yield curve this is the

famous argument the Bears always have

it's the inverted yield curve it's been

for a long time one of the strongest

arguments they've had and the hardest

one to dispel as a bull and the reality

is is when the inverted yield curve

steepens when the line goes up pain gets

worse pain gets worse when the line goes

up what's been happening for the last 3

months as you can see we're now only 17

basis points inverted and unfortunately

this is not a bull steepening this is a

bare steepening what is that mean excuse

me a bare steepening occurs when the T

10 year Rises while the 2-year does

little that finally brings long-term

rates higher which uninverted this which

basically makes that line go up Okay a

bull steepening is when the 10 years is

falling but the two years falling

faster we're getting the bare steepening

we're getting the fearful one right now

we're getting the one that says people

are not convinced inflation is going

away and don't get me wrong they have

every right to believe that inflation is

not going away and they have plenty to

site for inflation not going away why

don't we site some of the reasons why

okay let's just draw it right here let's

make it simple oil prices let's start

there okay wow we can't type oil prices

what else do we have War how much does

that affect Supply chains are we

increasing commodity prices because

we're using metal for guns instead of

butter this is the old world war

reference of guns and butter anyway

point is cars become more expensive to

manufacture when raw materials are more

expensive because they're used in war

the question is is that actually true or

are we just making the same amount of

crap that we're making anyway at lockeed

Martin and these other military defense

contractors and shipping the stuff

overseas so we could just continue

making new stuff for ourselves probably

that that's what Joe Biden suggested in

his speech yesterday we're just

restocking our own stock piles and this

is a united front Israel Ukraine it's

the same Fight Against Terror just an

interesting combination of Wars

especially as Israel discusses their

three-phase plan for escalating the war

to not only now evacuate towns in the

northern portion of Israel suggesting

maybe there'll be more conflict with

Lebanon but

also suggest that after strikes and

precision Commando infiltration to

attack and Rescue res hostages attack

Hamas and rescue hostages there will be

some phase of Israeli occupation chaos

and Hell awaits the Gaza strm this adds

to fear inflationary fear anytime you

have geopolitical uncertainty you get

inflationary fear add to that a

potentially conf potentially confused

Nation over what direction are we going

to go in we have no speaker of the house

we have no functioning Congress who's

going to be president we have no

idea polls are basically a coin toss for

Biden or Trump right now and quite

frankly there are plenty of people going

to say if Trump gets in I'm leaving the

freaking country again but you know what

there are plenty of people saying that

about Biden right now less probably

because it's maybe less extreme people

see Biden as a little bit more of a

placeholder but then people wonder well

then who am I electing maybe it's KLA

okay probably not but anyway the point

is uncertainty is extremely high right

now but not only is uncertainty

extremely high we're not done with the

inflation fight so we have to mark a

date on our calendar and this is very

important the date no no no no no no it

is not November 1st November 1st as you

know is fed day it is also the

expiration of the 20123 fund raise uh

for house hack at a one toone valuation

you want to be involved in my real

estate startup go to house act.com and

read the offering circular okay what you

actually want to do is mark your

calendar for a different date and

there's a very specific reason for this

date and this date is probably one in

which you will continue to experience

hell in the markets until because this

is the true driver of pain right

now November

14th why let me let you think about what

is on November 14th 5% of you probably

already know congratulations

but

inflation CPI release day why who cares

come on it's just another rigged report

right everybody knows there's so much

inflation right I mean uh food and and

beer at the grocery store everything's

up 35% since 2019 ra inflation so high

actual people who study the markets know

this is not true actual people who study

the markets know that this is not truly

the representation of what is ahead of

us rather is the better way to put it we

do know that inflation has averaged 18

to 30% in different segments since 2019

that part is

true but the concern that people have is

the following and it's something Jerome

Powell told us about yesterday the

concern is that the summer we had softed

inflation reads but in September we had

high inflation well we had a sudden peak

in core Services X housing that's the

bad one okay that's the one that's

driven by wages now the Federal Reserve

believes there's a chance this is a

onetime remember how one time doesn't

make a trend well this onetime High may

not make a trend and yes we have had 18

to 30 18 to 35% inflation at food and

hospital or uh what actually Medical

Care in some regards too travel

entertainment you name it absolutely we

have to remember that when you have $100

of uh of a product and it is now selling

for

$130 yes that equals 30% inflation yes

there has been a lot of inflation

absolutely but when that $130 product

goes to

$133 the very next year how much

inflation are we down to this is why

people say is there really that much

inflation anymore the people who get

upset are like of course your res

there's so much inflation there's been

so much inflation yes that is true but

it's also true that when you go from a

buck 30 to a buck 33 you're actually

sitting at 2.3% inflation which is

roughly getting to the Federal reserve's

target it's not there yet though but

what's most important what's most

important is again that November 14th

date why is that November 14th date so

important it's so important because we

are going to see if that onetime Spike

was a beginning of a trend or if it was

a one-time anomaly that's the question

are we going to face a spike of core

Services X housing we already know that

number one Goods is down goods inflation

solid we're good we're probably facing

deflation on that uh number two we know

that housing is supposed to roll over

and it's starting to roll over but we

haven't seen the big part of in housing

disinflation yet in terms of rents

stabilizing year-over-year this doesn't

actually mean rents going down a lot

rents are going down slightly in many

parts of the country but they're still

way higher than where they were in 2019

we know that and the third one is the xh

Housing Services this is very wage

sensitive Nick T and Jerome Powell

yesterday told us that wages were

actually coming in consistent

wages consistent with 2019 growth job

Changers regular wages wages are coming

in consistent with 2019 this is good and

this reiterates that we could have this

one-time spiking Trend but here's the

problem what if it's not a one-time

spike in Trend then you have two

potential realities and that's one of

those is the reality the stock market is

preparing to for today whether that's

via Tesla via the solar sector you name

it markets are not yet convinced that

inflation is gone that is part of the

Nike Swoosh inflation the volatile Nike

Swoosh says it is going to take hard

hard work to get people unprogrammed

from the mindset that just because we've

had 30% inflation over the last 3 4

years does not mean we're going to have

30% inflation again going forward it

doesn't even mean we're going to have 3

or 2% inflation going forward those are

detached but it takes a very long time

to get people past but everything's more

expensive to actually understand that so

what does the market do the market

prices in pain the market prices in that

Jerome pwell says rates are not too high

and you know what if inflation ticks up

we will keep going and people truly

believe that inflation will keep going

so what does that mean it means as bosk

said this morning probably not looking

at rate Cuts until later in 2024

certainly not before the middle of 2024

maybe even per him the end of 2024 what

does that mean it means interest rate

sectors interest rate sensitive stocks

get reamed solar gets destroyed as we

saw via solar edges earnings yesterday

not only does solar get destroyed but

Autos get destroyed everything interest

rate Sensitive gets wrecked the only

people who actually invest in those

stocks are people who have a long-term

mindset and I'm not talking a long-term

mindset of like carry this all the way

to bankruptcy I'm talking about a

long-term mindset that says we know when

rates go down the these are stocks with

massive growth potential cash flow

potential margin potential uh preference

potential style of pricing power right

people prefer one over another and so

the question is on November 14th which

direction will we go will we get a hot

read on November 14th on November 14th

will we get a read that says that's it

inflation is coming in so high and now

we have two months of pain ahead of or

we have now a two-month Trend solidified

of pain and inflation stocks go even

lower into the end of last year and do

we then potentially revisit the idea

that uhoh now we have a bearish tax loss

harvesting winter which potentially

rolls us into recession in 2024 entirely

possible shallow deep doesn't matter

entirely possible and that November 14th

date is going to be really important now

on the flip side if we do not get an

inflationary trend to the upside and we

actually start confirming disinflation

again what can we start seeing we could

start seeing a rollover of Treasury

yields we could start seeing a

relaxation of the FED where maybe the

FED finally says okay hey look if we

stay on this trend we might be done then

of course we'll go into December and

we'll realize okay like are we still on

a three-month trend of maybe inflation

you know averaging down again because we

take the three-month averages and kind

of see the moving averages entirely

possible the problem now though is there

is so much uncertainty that people do

not believe it is possible for inflation

to go back down if people don't believe

it's possible for inflation to go back

down they stop spending especially on

interest rate sensitive items like cars

and solar they stop spending and when

they stop spending they kill earnings at

companies they kill growth at what were

once growth companies it's a big problem

it's a big problem for those sorts of

stocks and again the only way you can

stay in them is by believing that at

some point in the future rates will be

lower but in the short term selling will

always feel better so what's my vision

in my game plan well my vision is that

it makes a lot of sense to be 50%

Diversified to real estate for exactly

this reason when you're 50% Diversified

to real estate you can soften the pain

Jack come over here say

hi say hello we're not live but just say

hi so perfect you could soften the pain

when you're 50% Diversified to real

estate that doesn't mean that real

estate market is insulated but it does

give you a different cycle that you're

on that can then enable you to actually

make bets when other people feel pain

and that circles back to Warren Buffett

be greedy when people are fearful be

fearful when people are greedy we have

not seen in my opinion the true greed

of a stock market again yet we saw it at

the end of 21 but we have not yet seen

it ahead of us it will come when rates

start trending down I believe we'll see

Bond I we don't know when that's going

to be that could be in three months it

could be in six months it could be in a

year it could be in two years when rates

start trending down and treasuries

bottom out which mean treasury yields

start

plummeting I believe we will see true

Peak greed in markets again

unfortunately for those of us holding on

to stocks today or feeling pain today

that doesn't make things better for us

today it just means more patience but

unfortunately more patience mean you

have to suffer through more pain for

longer and it hurts so if you want my

perspective or more of my perspective

make sure to check out the newers pro

courses at meetkevin.com also make sure

to go to house Haack to read the

offering circular so that you can get

Diversified to real estate anything else

you want to say Jack like And subscribe

um yes and also his coffee mug is broken

yes this coffee mug is broken thank you

for pointing that out I don't know how

that handle broke but now it looks more

like a Pokeball we should finish

breaking it anyway thank you so much for

watching Remember folks uh that even

though I'm a licensed financial adviser

and becoming a licensed stock broker as

well as a licensed real estate broker

this video is not personalized Financial

or real estate advice for you nor is it

tax legal or otherwise personalized

advice and it shall never be deemed

reasonably sufficient information for

the purposes of making an investment

into a particular security uh that I may

mention thank you so much for watching

we'll see you in the next one goodbye

and good luck not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always bit to get

your

take