Massive $3.5 Trillion Stimulus & Infrastructure Update

hey everyone kevin here here's the

latest madness going on with the 3.5

trillion dollar infrastructure package

including updates on some negative

outcomes of the bill massive timing

issues and how everything honestly could

just fall apart uh we'll also talk about

an unemployment extension being debated

and more but i have to warn you some of

the information in this video might be

stressful and this is where it's always

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all right folks let's talk first about

some potential negative externalities

that are going to or could come out of

the three and a half trillion dollar

infrastructure and stimulus package

first the resource that i'm about to

show is from the tax foundation it is an

analysis put together by that group this

particular group does have a slight

right bias though they are deemed highly

factual

for what it's worth let's take a look at

what they say right here they mentioned

that they expect the three and a half

trillion dollar infrastructure package

to reduce our national gross domestic

product by about one percent so a loss

of about one percent of gdp over the

next 10 years

we also expect to potentially lose up to

300 and 3 000 jobs that we would have

otherwise had over the next 10 years if

this bill passes in addition to that

well actually better yet here take a

look because you might be wondering wait

a minute like isn't this bill supposed

to create jobs isn't that the point that

we're creating infrastructure jobs and

the issue is that

this

work together here or this sort of

report analyzes not just the benefit of

jobs that we would get but the potential

that we would be losing jobs because of

higher taxes in certain places and then

makes net estimates to determine okay

how many fewer people do we think are

going to be employed in all different

industries throughout our country or how

many more people are going to be

employed and through all of the changes

that we have here we do expect to see a

net decline in employment such as here

increasing the top ordinary tax rate for

individuals to 36. or 39.6 percent from

37 percent could cost 64 000 jobs

uh changing some limitations on active

pass-through losses and sixteen thousand

jobs applying a three percent surcharge

on income over five million dollars 32

000 jobs could be lost because of that

over 10 years raising the corporate tax

rate from 21 where it is now to 26.5

could reduce jobs by about 107 000 over

the next 10 years and so ultimately they

do add up about 303 000 jobs in total

here there was also one report that

suggested hey wait a minute if you

increase taxes on uh cigarettes or

nicotine tobacco-related products

you're actually kind of taxing a lot of

people who do smoke who make less than

four hundred thousand dollars and biden

has regularly said that we would not tax

people who make under 400 000 although

that might just be splitting hairs that

particular argument now something that's

maybe a little bit more uh

relatable to us as individuals has to do

with our income and that is this piece

right here by the same report that

suggests that if your income is in the

top

80 percent so in other words you're not

in the bottom 20

your income is expected to go down over

the next 10 years as a result of this

plan and you can see the higher your

income goes over here the more of a

percentage decline in income you're

expecting to face

with people between uh or around 20 to

sixty percent experiencing anywhere

between a point seven to one point three

percent decline in income over the next

ten years ninety five to ninety percent

experiencing a one point eight percent

decline and that top one percent group

here experiencing about a four point

seven percent decline in income

expected to experience this rather

after this bill passes and again over

the next 10 years the bottom 20 however

would expect to see their income go up

by about 2.6 percent over the next 10

years and this is likely because of a

lot of the benefits that are income

restricted like the child tax credit

disproportionately helping elevate the

incomes of individuals with lower

incomes for example if you make 18 000 a

year and you have one child and you all

of a sudden get a thirty six hundred

dollar child tax credit that's

almost like making actually it is like

making twenty percent more money but if

you make a hundred thousand dollars and

you get a child tax credit of three and

a half thousand dollars that's or three

three thousand six hundred dollars

that's like making three point six

percent more money so you can see how

there's a disproportionate benefit to a

lower incomes compared to higher incomes

with uh things that this infrastructure

bill includes a lot of this of course

social infrastructure like expanding the

child tax credit up to five years as

opposed to only making it available for

2021. there's some other plans also

expected in this infrastructure bill

that are still being debated a new one

for example that came up is talking

about no more conversions so allowed for

high earning individuals to where folks

could go from an ira to a roth ira by

using backdoor conversions there might

also be required distributions and

limitations on how much you could

ultimately end up getting in a

retirement account like a 10 million

dollar cap on on your account and then

requiring distributions thereafter now

in addition to this we also have a

debate happening regarding the debt

limit we have to get a bill passed for

the debt limit to raise the debt limit

by september 30th otherwise we risk a

government shutdown the treasury

department has already warned us that we

have funding through about the middle of

october and then the united states

government would have to shut down and

potentially default on some of its

payment obligations which would be very

very bad we don't expect this to happen

and steny hoyer in the house has already

mentioned that we will vote next week on

a stop gap measure to essentially kick

the can down the road probably through

about the second week of december this

is the same thing we did last year

despite the fact that people like mitch

mcconnell were saying hey we're not

interested we want to just keep the debt

limit let's stop spending money uh the

debt limit ended up getting not only

extended through december but then ended

up getting increased

so usually politicians are all about

saying one thing and doing the other

thing and i kind of grow tired of it but

anyway at least i'll keep you updated on

what's going on and this is why you want

to subscribe to the channel and of

course get life insurance go to

medkevin.com life but anyway we have uh

we also have considerations right now

from mitch mcconnell that democratic

leaders he says should raise the debt

limit on their own

using budget reconciliation and that's

because he says republicans are united

in opposition against raising the debt

limit not because it doesn't need to be

done but because he specifically

believes that democrats should include

raising the debt ceiling in their three

and a half trillion dollar

infrastructure bill and pass it without

republican support now this is really

important because there are a lot of

moderate democrats who are not big fans

of spending so much money and raising

the debt limit to pay for certain

programs inside of this so mitch

mcconnell believes his best opportunity

to water down the three and a half

trillion dollar bill is to essentially

force democrats to be more moderate in

their three and a half trillion dollar

bill by making sure that they can get

moderate democrat support on the three

and a half trillion dollar bill along

with raising the debt ceiling and

republicans don't want to have anything

to do with it that is potentially a way

of also setting themselves up for their

2022 elections now nancy pelosi has said

that they plan to vote on the

infrastructure bill by september 27th

which would be perfect because that way

nancy pelosi could do as promised she

could vote on the one trillion dollar

infrastructure package the three and a

half trillion dollar package and the

debt ceiling all together remember the

one trillion dollar package is already

passed by the uh the senate and the

three and a half trillion dollar package

along with the budget would get sent

over to the senate where it is expected

to be passed now the three and a half

trillion dollar bill though and this is

where things get touchy is not expected

to be a hundred percent ready by the end

of this month remember the house of

representatives in whole hasn't been

called back to session they've just been

back for specific committee meetings

they come back on monday the senate was

also gone thursday and friday they'll be

back on monday as well so this upcoming

week is going to be pretty big we've

also got the federal reserve coming out

to tell us if inflation is as much of a

concern as it always has been

and if they expect to taper or reduce

the federal reserve's money printing

essentially their bond asset purchases

of 40 billion dollars per month of

mortgage-backed securities and 80

billion dollars a month of treasury

bonds that kind of support could start

going away this upcoming week though

personally i expect this not to go away

until november which should give

congress some breathing room on this

plan now what's interesting about mitch

mcconnell and this debt ceiling debate

is mitch mcconnell knows that if

moderate democrats don't get on board

with this three and a half trillion

dollar plan that basically nancy pelosi

is going to be backed into a corner

she's going to have to use budget

reconciliation to make biden not look

like a looney who ended up letting the

government default on its debts so in

other words biden is going to pressure

nancy pelosi to make sure the debt limit

gets increased while at the same time

that's going to rush nancy pelosi and

probably forced her to make more

compromises on the three and a half

trillion dollar bill than she otherwise

would have this is why mitch mcconnell

is saying just raise the debt limit with

your three and a half trillion dollar

bill he also realizes that democrats

only have one opportunity to use budget

reconciliation if they use it solely to

raise the debt limit then they can't use

it on the three and a half trillion

dollar bill if that three and a half

trillion dollar bill isn't ready yet and

that would basically kill the three and

a half trillion dollar bill so nancy

pelosi has a massive time frame and time

crunch ahead of her she's gonna have to

bang out some serious negotiations over

the next two weeks to negotiate that

three and a half trillion dollar bill

and raising the debt ceiling all

together in one package making sure not

to lose too many moderate democrats in

the house or a single democrat in the

senate otherwise that three and a half

trillion dollar package will not happen

again the house comes back this week you

can see this one's gonna be tense

now we also know

that aoc has suggested extending

unemployment benefits until february of

2022 that's the 300 federal boost

unemployment that ended about two weeks

ago if there ends up being an extension

it would be the fourth extension that

we've had during this pandemic now aoc

is pushing for this to be re retroactive

through about a labor day however she

does acknowledge that this is very

unlikely to happen i also agree i think

it's unlikely to happen i do not think

we will see another unemployment boost

from the federal government i think more

focus will be on that child tax credit

and some of the other benefits like paid

leave within the actual stimulus and

infrastructure package

we're also seeing very very little

discussion about actual stimulus checks

now now aoc has also been a vocal

opponent of the salt tax deduction

coming back in fairness research does

show that 57 of the benefit of that

deduction would go to the top one

percent so if it comes back 57 percent

of that benefit would go to the top one

percent and remember earlier

how incomes in the top one percent would

drop around 4.7 over 10 years with the

new plan well if the salt tax deduction

comes back we would only see the top one

percent have their incomes decline by

about 1.9 percent in other words in line

with kind of everybody else's income

decline kind of worth noting in

comparison there that that salt tax

deduction actually makes a really big

difference you've also got folks right

now like representative adams

threatening to vote no on the

reconciliation package unless it also

includes billions of dollars in

additional federal aid for more

historically black colleges and

universities he says this is a

requirement if we want to build back

better we do have a big evictions and

rental cliff coming up on september 30th

that's because fannie and freddie have

disallowed landlords from conducting

evictions on lo on properties that have

fannie or freddie loans on them these

are conventional backed mortgages a lot

of people use these mortgages and so

that eviction deadline comes up

september 30th and california's own

eviction moratorium and september 30th

as well so september 30th is a big day

and folks there you have it that is a

complete roundup of all the madness

going on with the infrastructure and

stimulus package i expect this week to

be a very busy week thank you so much

for watching this video and folks we'll

see in the next one check out the life

insurance at mattkevin.com

life

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