Why Bitcoin is Skyrocketing

some good news here recently about

Bitcoin and it specifically has to do

with this this hope around a Bitcoin ETF

maybe actually getting approval and part

of that has to do with who's filing for

that approval and I will talk more about

that in just a moment but I want you to

see from a technical basis what that has

done look at what that has done it is

incredible what it has done to BTC this

is very important this is the day chart

for BTC you should be able to see a very

clear downtrend that has been going on

since April 14th something just broke

though

the trend broke to the upside let's

extend the TA to approximately

here we will sticking it in a weird

place I'll leave it right there as you

can see you and we'll extend this a

little bit like this there you go here's

your clear downtrend it's hard to call

it a converging downtrend uh or or wedge

pattern it's just a pretty much straight

downtrend which if you want to see

another downtrend you kind of had that

in the queues last year right you had

this perfect downtrend right here and

then now we're finally in this crazy

uptrend uh and the uptrend has been

pretty wild and aggressive

but look at what we just had at Bitcoin

you had a break of trend from a

technical basis that is a big deal that

we finally broke above uh this 27 to 27

3-ish level fantastic because we've

we've gotten rejected here quite a bit I

mean you could see the rejections if I

just hover the mouse here uh previous

low became new resistance and you got

reject reject reject reject reject

multiple rejects here uh and we were

trending down

it was pretty obvious it's very basic

technical analysis but why is this

happening uh well a quick reminder

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meet kevin.com so what happened well

BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin or blackrock's approvals for

ETFs are really good they have filed for

575 different ETFs and they have only

lost one filing that is they have not

gotten approval on one and that was for

a non-transparent ETF in 2014 and since

then the ETF has actually approved

non-transparent ETFs now to be clear

since I'm a financial advisor and I run

an ETF even though this video isn't

personalized Financial advice

most ETFs are transparent they disclose

their Holdings every day at the end of

the day

you don't actually have to do that if

you have a non-trans transparent ETF as

long as that's properly disclosed anyway

point is basically BlackRock always gets

their ETFs approved that's why I'm

giving you that background on those ETFs

because the one that didn't get approved

that structure ended up getting approved

anyway later so basically BlackRock for

the purpose of this argument has a

perfect record

exception again of that one exception

they basically have a perfect record

for getting ETFs approved

unlike all of the other companies who

filed for ETFs that have not gotten

approved for a Bitcoin ETF which we

don't have a Bitcoin ETF right now there

is a Bitcoin Futures ETF but that is not

a Bitcoin itself ETF the thesis is that

if there is a Bitcoin ETF then fund

managers will finally be able to invest

in Bitcoin in a way that's not having to

deal with keys right we know the whole

not your keys not your crypto to some

extent the same thing is true with an

ETF structure except it would likely be

regulated in a way where whomever is

investing in that ETF does not actually

have to worry about the key or worry

about being hacked or whatever because

presumably there would be some form of

Regulation or security to make sure that

ETF structure could not fail to some

form of hack whether it's via insurance

or security whatever right I would guess

the SEC would require something like

that but we'll we'll obviously see the

details when it comes but the idea is

that a Bitcoin ETF should open

mainstream adoption for cryptocurrency

and finally usher in an era of

regulation for Bitcoin and

cryptocurrencies that is the idea if

that were to happen the expectation is

there would be a lot more demand for

Bitcoin and therefore well prices go up

that's why we're starting to see prices

go up being priced in now now what's

fascinating is

the SEC so far

hasn't declared Bitcoin a security and

ETFs are generally a structure put

together for Securities although there

are also uh funds that uh that trade for

Commodities so it kind of makes you

wonder okay would would this ETF

application have to also go through the

commodity and Futures Trading commission

where we suspect that Bitcoin and

ethereum would probably lean more

towards Commodities versus Securities

who knows

but the point is the fact that BlackRock

filed for this ETF

suggests that maybe the suits running

Wall Street are finally feeling

comfortable that hey we're actually

ready for a Bitcoin ETF and it's

injecting a lot of enthusiasm now keep

in mind

this is going to be the 28th attempt at

launching a spot Bitcoin ETF spot just

means like the underlying asset rather

than like a futures

and uh this is about the 20th company to

file you've had other companies like

even Kathy Wood over at ARC file for a

Bitcoin ETF and nobody's gotten it yet

they've basically just been ignored by

the SEC and generally it takes around a

full 240 days to decide

uh on on an ETF as to whether or not

they'll approve it or not usually though

they tend to give some form of response

within the first 45 days uh they can

keep kicking the can down the road and

eventually just deny you but since

BlackRock is doing it a lot of people

are speculating this is it and maybe in

2023 we'll actually end up getting an

approved Bitcoin ETF which would be a

way for individuals on let's say Robin

Hood or whatever to go in and say rather

than just buying BTC where Robin Hood is

custodying that Bitcoin for you you're

able to buy an ETF you know call it

bbtc BlackRock BTC just as an example I

don't know what ticker it's going to be

uh and now all of a sudden they're

custodying it in an SEC approved manner

for a transparent ETF that would hold

the underlying asset this is not to be

confused with like a grayscale Bitcoin

Trust which is sort of a way of

investing in a fund it's a closed fund

where you can invest in Bitcoin through

a fund but the problem with gbtc is

it doesn't actually trade at net asset

value it trades at a discount sometimes

as much of it as a 50 discount and

that's because there are liquidity

problems because it's closed fund you

get this this potential Arbitrage on

gbtc you wouldn't have that in an ETF

however it creates a potential money

making opportunity

if gbtc is trading at a large discount

and a BlackRock ETF is approved then

gbtc might get their application

approved to turn their fund into an ETF

if they turn their fund into an ETF

we would expect gbt's valuation to get

to net asset value which basically means

gbtc would Skyrocket and that Arbitrage

opportunity would vanish as basically

people realize profit

that would be a big deal and a big day

for gbtc in the Bitcoin community and

everyone

which is very bullish for BTC so in case

you're wondering a little bit of a catch

up as to why all this stuff is happening

there you go the BlackRock move into

filing an ATF with a near perfect record

you may as well call it perfect it's

very bullish it's great for gbtc it's

great for institutional access to BTC

it's great for not potentially having to

worry about you know again it depends on

what regulations and security and

insurance as we see but the whole not

your keys not your crypto because I

think a lot of people are intimidated by

oh I need to you know back up my private

keys on on a hardware wallet what even

is that uh you know what what is

cryptography and and why do I have these

16 different words that I have to

remember you know here let me read you

mine oh wait

um

yeah it takes away a lot of the uh

barriers and potentially ushers in an

era of positive regulation rather than

to some extent the nonsense crypto has

been going through lately which is

somewhat

hey you all should be regulated okay

what are the rules we don't know okay

how about these rules no uh okay can we

work with you on this sure we'd love to

work with you okay now we're working

with you how does this sound screw you

we're suing you coinbase and whatever

right like that's roughly what

regulation has felt like I personally

think that's a failure of Congress

Congress should make the rules

and then the SEC can enforce them but

since Congress ain't doing anything it's

on lawyers at the SEC to basically put

their opinions in front of a judge and

then a judge to regulate and now you go

and like well who is the judge that's

actually going to decide what is a

commodity versus uh you know a security

is it going to be the Supreme Court and

then you look and go

do you trust the Supreme Court to figure

it out you know like are they really

going to be suddenly crypto experts who

are going to figure this out

although do they need to be do the

crypto experts instead

present Arguments for why something

should be what and then the Supreme

Court does decide it'd be a lot easier

if some lobbyists wrote a law

that was you know

had the free market do its little

manipulation to it via lobbying that's

what happens and uh and then Congress

actually passed a law that the SEC can

actually enforce rather than all this

lawsuit nonsense hey lawsuits anyway

all that said

BlackRock ETF

bullish

how bullish very bullish

why are we breaking Trent because of the

BlackRock ETF breaking Trend also

bullish

get denied on bitcoin ETF at BlackRock

very bearish so that is a risk

all the good I just said

would get turned on its head if even

BlackRock got denied

and so there is that potential if there

was no collusion

about hey hey y'all ready for us to file

that Bitcoin ETF you know we always get

approved you're gonna approve us this

time right and if someone at the SEC is

like yeah yeah we'll approve you great

if that didn't happen and BlackRock gets

rejected that's bad because then it's

like this is never gonna happen until

the Supreme Court gets to it which will

take years

so

as usual when it comes to finance it's

either really good or really bad

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get back to you today

pressure pressure all right uh yes

somebody here writes oh God if it was

denied buy crypto Market

uh and then somebody else replies then

buy more

yeah BlackRock gets denied it's going to

become a problem somebody here writes

once you learn about public private key

cryptography crypto becomes easy that's

basic but but you just lost

a lot of people at learn

I I know mind-blowing right people a lot

of people refuse to invest in themselves

and actually learn uh

is microstrategy one of the best ways to

invest in BTC through a non-etf

some people make that argument because

they hold so much Bitcoin that you could

potentially just look at their market

cap compared to how much PTC they own uh

there is a risk because you know it is a

company with employees and Executives

and CEOs and that who are going to pay

themselves and could you know dilute the

stock and and you know basically

mismanage the company so that now you're

relying on that management so so there

is some some risk there uh

two scenarios one approved rich

not approved

not rich

[Laughter]

yes yes uh it it is binary really good

or really bad now I want you to know

this when it comes to AI time is what's

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don't get replaced but