Trump's Decision on Striking Iran vs Israel - THURSDAY ANNOUNCEMENT

and he will make a decision within the

next two weeks. Caroline, thanks

Caroline. Um Caroline Levit just told us

that Donald Trump will make a decision

on whether or not to attack Iran within

two weeks. This basically gives Donald

Trump this opening where she says

negotiations are still ongoing to within

the next two weeks decide to strike or

not. It gives Donald Trump a lot of

optionality. This is normal. This is

kind of part of Donald Trump's chaos

theory. Though she's immediately asked,

"Hey, what about the fact that Donald

Trump always extends his two weeks?" and

she's like, "Well, Donald Trump doesn't

always extend it, do we?" Point is,

doesn't look like the strikes are super

imminent anymore, but we can obviously

keep paying attention to the updates on

what else is going on. And for now, it

looks like the Iranian Israeli strikes

are just going to keep going back and

forth. I personally believe nothing

short of America going in and watching

the dismantling of Fordo would be

something he would agree to. His

agreement would be one that would ensure

Iran does not get nuclear weapons. We

can't just make it the IAEA. They're

feckless. their week but do nothing. All

right, we'll move on. I mean, that's not

entirely clear. There are some important

updates that we got to talk about coming

out of Israel, but it's not entirely

clear that IAEA weapons inspectors are

worthless and useless to the point where

we should just start bombing countries

that, you know, abide by IAEA

inspections. The problem with Iran is

that we used to have a joint

comprehensive plan of action that Donald

Trump tore up and he was going to

replace with a better, more aggressive

plan with Iran. The issue was that at

the time a lot of people were frustrated

that the restrictions on Iran's ability

to rich uranium weren't as restrictive.

But then when Iran walked away from the

JCPOA, guess what ended up happening?

You ended up getting an Iran that, well,

guess what? ended up manufacturing more

enriched uranium. We are concerned about

highlyenriched uranium which obviously

could potentially be used and further

enriched into weaponsgrade highly

refined U235. This takes a lot of time

through centrifugal process and

otherwise. So Donald Trump right now was

lashing out a little bit this morning. I

saw him lash out at the Wall Street

Journal. The reason it looked like he

was lashing out of the Wall Street

Journal along with we got to talk about

some of the other strikes that happened

on Israel including on the medical

facility which remarkable by the way

that the surgery center that got hit was

evacuated

just one day prior almost like they had

some kind of six sense uh that uh that a

missile strike and a direct hit was

coming which is which is absolutely

insane. Uh, apparently Iran was trying

to hit the intelligence facilities close

by. Didn't mean to hit the uh medical

center, but they did. But see, Wall

Street Journal has this talk about Trump

privately approving the attack plans for

Iran, but withholding his final order.

This is where, remember, we talked about

how a strike was imminent from Donald

Trump. This was because we were putting

all of the pieces of the puzzle together

and leaks within White House suggested

Donald Trump, he was down. He's like,

"Let's go. Let's strike him." Turns out,

as he was, "Yes, let's do it. Get all

the planes in place. Get the bombs in

place. Get everything ready. Let's

create a little bit of a media

spectacle. Let's let some people know

the plans are imminent to freak Iran out

to get some negotiations and talks

going." This is where Iran yesterday

says, "Yeah, yeah, you know what? We

we'd be willing to meet. you know, we'll

we'll meet in Oman, which there was a

rumor and potential evidence that there

was a delegation that started

negotiating yesterday in Oman. There was

talk that maybe Iran would actually even

come to the White House to negotiate a

deal. But it's not a surprise to me that

Donald Trump approved attack plans to

attack Iran. Uh we we had already

gleaned that. Holding off for lastminute

negotiation makes sense, though, because

it's politically extremely unpopular to

get into another war. Although, let's be

clear, Trump is not going to brand this

as a war. And I don't think his

intention is to get involved in another

war. Nobody believes that we're just

going to have another, you know, short

desert storm or a short Vietnam or a

short Afghanistan occupation or a short

Iraq oper operation Iraqi freedom. As

you can see, we don't really have a

reputation for short. We intend to have

long and protracted. And so, I think

this is where Trump, his goal is really,

hey, let's let's get a precision strike

in. go do the deed that Israel can't and

just move on. Now, what's interesting is

that this attack plan talk from the Wall

Street Journal has Donald Trump freaking

out on truth. And usually Trump gets the

most aggressive when people are hitting

a little bit too close to home in my

opinion. Like I tend to see him lash out

when people are kind of on the right

track with what he's actually doing. So,

uh, take a look at his truth social

right here. The Wall Street Journal has

no idea what my thoughts are concerning

Iran. Well, the funny thing about this

is both things could be true. It could

be true that Donald Trump did privately

approve attacks plan attack plans. He

didn't deny that. And it could also be

true that the Wall Street Journal has no

idea what Donald Trump's actual thoughts

are. uh keeping in mind that uh we're in

an environment where these strikes not

only are unpopular with with Americans

who believe it could drag us into a

protracted war, but they also have a

serious risk of failure. I, you know, I

don't want to suggest that the United

States government isn't capable of doing

a great job with these missiles, but

let's be clear, the only way these

laserg guided missiles are going to

function really well, in my opinion, is

if we actually have really precision GPS

data, like a spy in the facility holding

some kind of device somehow beaming up.

I I don't even know how they would do

this, beaming up through, you know, 60 m

of concrete. the precise alignment of

where they are compared to where the top

is. Now, maybe that's unreasonable.

Maybe all you have to do is sort of

like, you know, take a a LAR camera or

whatever and film from the entrance deep

in and do like a 3D Matterport scan here

of the facility. The problem is it's

still really tough to actually bunker

bust these facilities because if you're

too low, you're screwed. If you're too

high, you're screwed. these bunker

busting bombs that are 30,000 lbs. It's

really important to remember they're not

30,000 lb warheads. They're like 5,000lb

warheads. And if they don't go deep

enough, you're screwed. If they end up

too far, too too low, you're also

screwed. And obviously, if you miss,

you're screwed because the blast radius

of this is maybe good for about uh 45

ft, 30 feet, something like that. So,

you got to have some really dang good

positioning. This right here that

they're showing on screen, by the way,

is Natans. This was easy because look at

Natans. You know, when when you look at

this Israeli footage from Natans, it's

pretty dang obvious where the facility

is going to be. But when you look at the

Foraux facility, it's a substantially

harder target to hit. And I think that's

what's giving Donald Trump some

nervousness because imagine the scenario

that nobody's talking about. the

scenario that potentially you end up

striking the Ford facility, your bombs

don't work and you just end up

encouraging uh uh the Iranian regime and

showing to the Iranians, hey uh yeah, we

kind of screwed up here and uh we

actually don't have any tools to attack

your bunkers. That's one of the downside

problems because this is under a ridge.

So, which side do you drop the bomb

from? Which angle do you use? Well, you

know, is it here? Is it here? Some of

these tunnels, mind you, are also going

to be deadends, and they're designed to

be at multiple different 90° angles, so

that way you could purposefully limit a

blast radius. This is a really big deal.

So, there are serious risks to Donald

Trump going for this attack. Not only

the fact that the B2 bombers are very

likely to have to refuel with, you know,

60,000 lbs of bombs. Uh they're just

going to have too much drag to be able

to make it. In my opinion, it'd be much

safer to ensure a round trip. This is

not a one-way flight that you refuel.

So, where are you going to do that? You

going to do that over the uh Persian

Gulf? You know, are people going to see

this happening? It's all problematic.

There's a risk with everything. and

there's no guarantee that even if Donald

Trump decided to strike that our bombs

would work. So that then creates a

potential risk that Israel goes as far

and says, "Okay, well if our hospitals

are going to get bombed now and Iran is

going to get, you know, ridiculous here

where, you know, now all of a sudden

they're quote unquote missing our

intelligence facilities and they're

bombing our hospitals. Then we're just

going to end up using a strategic

nuclear weapon against Fordo." And then

guess what happens? Well, now you

actually have a nuclear conflict, right?

Uh here are just some photos yesterday

of the medical facility that was hit.

So, there's a lot more to this than

just, oh yeah, let's, you know, bomb

them in and out. I believe that it could

be an in-n-out, but you better damn hope

that that In-N-Out is successful because

if we fail, there's just going to be

more of this. And what Iran is

purposefully doing right now is they're

just trickling ballistic missiles,

especially some of the hypersonics that

can actually, you know, sort of thrust

themselves into different directions

intentionally. This is actually a pretty

impressive new style of hypersonic

missile that Iran is using. You can

dodge some of the Israeli interceptors.

See if I can find a little clip of one

of those. But in the meantime, it's

really worth remembering

these bunker busting bombs. this

30,000lb bomb everybody's talking about

unproven yet that it could work and it

assumes that our intelligence is nearly

perfect and so that does create a little

bit of nervousness. Now, all of that

said, these attacks on Israel and these

sort of individual lobbs that we're

getting against Israel, in my opinion,

we've mentioned this before, but I think

that they're happening because you have

an Iran that doesn't want a whole

flotillaa, so to speak. Obviously using

a naval term here, of weapon launchers

out because if you have a whole flotilla

out, it's much easier to strike those

weapon launchers. So, you're getting

substantially fewer. Uh, now this is

normal. Uh and it explains uh

potentially why we're getting these sort

of more oneoff attacks against Israel

and some of the hypersonics are just

able to actually get through the Israeli

Aero2 David Sling A3 and Iron Dome

facility. Iron Dome, the localized one,

isn't designed for these ballistic

missiles either. But the problem also

with Iran is they're not really good at

targeting. like they're really good at

getting ish close with the ones they get

through, but then they accidentally hit

the wrong buildings. And then of course

when you hit medical facilities, again,

thankfully one was evacuated. There's

there's talk of uh uh this particular

one was evacuated. There's talk of about

uh three deaths that occurred, which is

still terrible, but way better than if

it were fully occupied, right? Not that

any deaths are good, but here

you can see some footage of what it

actually looks like.

when the strike occurs. This is the

closest one I've seen.

It's intense. You know, this is this is

like a war zone and you know, you're

you're in a situation where this is

unfortunately escalating rather than

deescalating. Uh and it does make me

nervous and really hopeful that we can

get a deal. Now, you saw the Fox News

ladies talk about, oh, the only thing

Trump's going to go for is some kind of,

as he says himself, unconditional

surrender. So I actually agree with that

regarding the nuclear program. Best case

scenario here, not some kind of regime

change, not trying to like kill the

Ayatollah, not trying to create a

religious war, not trying to create an

occupation, but instead saying, "Hey,

look, you guys are done with nuclear

weapons. We are done with enriching

uranium, no nuclear program at all, and

let's lay all this out on the table and

open up maybe your ability to export

oil, but move on. Here's, by the way, uh

footage or or rather here's video.

There's footage of this as well. Here's

a uh picture of a bomb impact mark on

the uh energy reactor in Iraq apparently

decommissioned or not currently active.

But it does kind of show that some of

these uh you know targets are starting

to get a little more close to the you

know hitting the Chernobyl style level

of of attack. This is a pent this is the

Israeli depiction of what the reactor

unit looks like. They say that it could

be used to produce a nuclear bomb in the

future and that at the moment it was a

non-active reactor which is why they

targeted it. It's unclear how they have

exactly this intelligence likely by

buying out people on the ground or by uh

you know having actual just MSAD agents

on the ground. Here's uh footage of the

actual strike, which is pretty

remarkable if you think about it. I

mean, this is uh I'm just going to try

to freeze frame it. Yeah, here comes

your projectile. And it's quite a

remarkable strike uh with this uh

infrared camera that we have here. So,

uh but but it does show the expanding of

this. I mean, we're now on, you know,

seventh day here. Uh Netanyahu says the

matter of Iran's regime change or fall

is a matter of the Iranian people.

There's no substitute for this. Uh

Israel's Prime Minister BB says, "Yeah,

okay. Change or fall of the Iranian

regime is not a goal, but could be a

result." This is in an interview

apparently taking place literally as as

we're recording this. So, it shows you

that uh that's this is not the goal of

the international community to have

regime change to the extent you believe

BB. I believe this is true though. You

don't want a power vacuum in the region

and ending up with a Taliban taking over

or some Israeli occupation. That's

really bad. What you want is just no

enriching of uranium. And this is why

Israel is really sort of leaning on

Trump. Hey, can you help us finish the

job here? And the idea too is that if we

do finish the job and fore that we end

up in a situation where we say, all

right, Israel folds or sorry, Iran folds

and we end up in in just a place of

peace. Again, of course, restoring peace

to the Middle East is a goal. It's not

something that is uh very common, but it

would be a very nice goal. Now, going

back briefly to the Wall Street Journal

just to look at some cover on the

journal and then Al Jazer, we could get

a little bit more color on some of the

uh latest updates. Uh I do like watching

and and listening to parts of Alazer

because you get the different

perspective, the sort of non-American,

less Israeli perspective, and you get a

little bit more of a Middle East Iranian

perspective. A little bit more, right?

Uh, so the live updates here are always

a great tool that you can use to follow

with Iran attacks failing to diminish

Israelis public support for the war. I

think it's it's worth knowing that the

Israelis do believe that if nuclear

weapons get in the hands of Hamas or the

Houthis or Hezbollah, a strategic

nuclear weapon will be deployed on

Israel. And I think there is truly real

fear here. Uh, and so there there's this

accepting almost of this is what we've

lived with for decades. Yes, the strikes

at the moment may be worse and some of

them are getting through, which isn't

great, especially with those trajectory

changing ballistic missiles, some of

which Iran apparently has. Uh, makes it

a little harder to intercept. Just so

you quickly know, ballistic missiles,

you're launched, you're fueled up to a

certain point, uh, and then you just

fall in an arc, which actually makes

them relatively predictable because

they're just falling to the ground.

However, some uh hypersonic uh ballistic

missiles can actually have little

thrusters on the edges of them. Uh so

after you get thrust up with your

boosters, you're out of your boo booster

fuel and you're you're in the arc phase.

As you're in this sort of arc phase, the

trajectory by interceptors can be

calculated, but they are now adding

technology where you could have little

thrusters that

purposefully create new arcs just to

throw off the interceptor technology,

which which is frustrating obviously to

the Israelis and maybe one of the

reasons we're seeing some more of these

um uh strikes actually land. uh Iran's

foreign minister is appealing to the UK,

France and Germany to to you know uh

help stop the fighting. The the idea

here really is at the same time as Kam

is suggesting we are not going to

surrender. The actual government

delegations want to see peace. I don't

think really uh Palestinians want to see

more death. I don't think Iranians want

to see more death. I don't think that

Israelis want to see more death. I think

what's most important is an end uh to

essentially this this nuclear enrichment

program. That's it. That's at least the

cover for this. Now, we had that same

sort of talk in Desert Storm, although

Desert Storm may have been in part

because Iran didn't or Iraq didn't

really want to pay their Kuwaiti debt.

But it's worth remembering that uh there

was so much talk about uh Saddam Hussein

potentially working up a nuclear weapon.

One of the reasons they probably

couldn't work up a nuclear weapon

because they did have the plans that

they got from the Soviets and frankly

the United States back in the 70s and

they didn't have plans for nuclear

weapons. Some of the reasons we maybe

stopped some of the progress on these

nuclear weapons was because of uh a

desert storm or operation Iraqi freedom.

Now maybe maybe I'm taking too much of

an optimistic line there and I I'm not

like dying on that hill, right? I'm just

saying there's a possibility that you

know these strikes do set you back. Uh

we don't know where the esvahan stored

highlyenriched uranium is that fits in

about 15 cylinders uh that are marked by

the IAEA. You know, the Fox News girls

are like, "Oh, you know, we do we trust

the IAEA inspectors. Maybe, maybe not."

But like they're some of the few people

telling us, "Hey, we've got 15 canisters

of highlyenriched uranium. We were

checking them out on a daily basis. We

weren't seeing evidence that they were

making a bomb." Sure. Is it unusual that

they're enriching this much uranium?

Yes. Obviously, could that become a

catalyst for making a bomb? Of course.

But at least that's the IAEA point of

view. But it does sort of align with

what we're getting from Tulsi Gabard,

director of national intelligence,

suggesting, I don't know. I'm not

really, you know, in rude here on making

a bomb. Of course, Donald Trump

regularly has sided almost in any

instance with Israel. It's unclear if

this has to do with like a Kushner

connection, family relationship to

Israel or what, or just sort of like

that New York relation to Israel or if

it's just frankly that Donald Trump has

some other intelligence.

I I personally think it's, you know, it

is the one piece of negotiating leverage

that Iran thinks that I think they think

they have is that, hey, you know, we got

all this stored uranium, you know, you

should consider lifting these sanctions

against us. You know, I think it's I

don't know how close they actually are

to a bomb. We're always told everybody's

days away, but you know, we've heard

that from BB for the last 30 years. Uh,

however, you know,

Foro has been talked about now for the

last like 4 days straight. I feel like

the Iranians are pretty damn prepared

for Fordo to get annihilated to the

point now where I'm like, is it even

worth it anymore? because you know

potentially you could just move whatever

you have there if you even had anything

there. Maybe you have another secret

facility somewhere else. We don't know.

So, and that's where I said earlier in

the segment that like if we strike and

miss, total embarrassment. So, there's a

lot to consider here when it comes uh to

uh to Iran. So, uh that's my take. Uh

anyway, hopefully hopefully that's

insightful

and uh yeah, take it from there. So, so

that's why not advertise these things

that you told us here. I feel like

nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Pra there,

financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet

Kevin. Always great to get your take.