Warning: The REAL Reason Omicron in South Africa is Different

hey everyone kevin here the stock market

is bleeding and we need to talk about

the fud that's keeping the market pained

right now a lot of folks are wondering

ah omicron it's a nothing burger why are

markets upset well in this video you're

going to learn why markets are upset

about this quote unquote nothing burger

and i'm going to show you where the

uncertainty is and why is this so

important it's so important so that way

when you

track exactly the inflection point that

i'm talking about in terms of this new

set of data you'll be able to know okay

is this potentially the sign that the

market's going to get ready to turn

around that's the time to know you're at

bottom and go shopping right this makes

sense it also gives us comfort for the

investments that we've already made in

knowing that okay is there an end point

of the pain now this doesn't mean that

more bad pain can't come but this is

definitely a big negative catalyst so

let's talk about this we'll talk more

about this of course in the course

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day okay let's talk about this fud

that's keeping the market pained right

now first

we know we know we know we know that in

south africa cases of omicron are

dropping and deaths are

flat and low at this point honestly this

is the most generic response any loser's

gonna give on twitter and it's really

quite exhausting because it's basic it's

literally like people looking at a

charcoal oh look okay covet case is

going down in south africa

debts are flat

omicron's nothing burger not sure why

the market's falling off a cliff oh well

fine if you want that kind of like

generic thought process then fine

look at one chart retweet somebody's

dumb message and move on but there's so

much more underneath this and it takes

hours and hours days of research to

understand

there's a lot we don't know and this is

where some of the uncertainty comes from

i don't profess to know everything but i

do profess to research this stuff all

day in and out and that's why i think

you watch these videos so there are

three things that this chart does not

tell us and these three things are all

very important when it comes to

understanding what the heck is happening

with omicron in south africa number one

localization we are not out of the woods

yet let's understand this in gothic the

largest province in south africa

of uh i believe we've got over 12.27

million folks in this particular

province

we are seeing cases decline

hospitalizations start inflecting down

we have researchers from gotten saying

quote for the first time there are more

non-severe than severe patients in the

hospital great this is excellent news so

why are markets still freaking out well

just because things are going great in

the largest providence does not mean

things are going great everywhere in

kwazulu-natal hospitalizations are

actually rising and we have

substantially fewer vaccinations in this

particular providence than in gotting

this is a problem and this is also being

con or is being well what's contributing

to the issue over here is the fact that

according to doctors in this particular

providence most of the patients who are

coming to the hospital are unvaccinated

we've got hospitalizations climbing to

971 on december 15th up from 79 on

december 1st

22 of those are in the icu and over 80

percent of them are actually coming to

the hospital because of coven not

because of other reasons and that's

really important as well it's easy to

throw around ah it's mostly other

reasons or they're catching it in the

hospital that's fine but when you start

zooming in to the individual providences

wait a minute we've got different

stories happening in different places

and this means we have to pay attention

a little bit more closely to

the individual areas because that's

going to help us understand what's

potentially to come to the united states

and how long we might be dealing with

this drama so that way you're properly

prepared in case you're sitting on

short-term options you're aware that oh

we need to be looking for particular

inflection points now of those who are

in the icu in this particular province

of 41 need ventilation which is a little

bit higher than the average overseeing

most patients who were being admitted to

the hospital with omicron are are not in

need of ventilation or certainly

intensive care but those who are in

intensive care we're seeing over 80

percent of them are unvaccinated

individuals now

this is very important that we're seeing

these different

local spreads in south africa we want to

really keep an eye on these different

providences not just the biggest one to

understand south africa when you pull up

the overall chart it doesn't do you much

good unless you actually have a

breakdown of what's happening at the

individual areas and there's another

reason for this we're going to talk

about this okay

here's the thing

first of all we don't have great

statistics on what i'm about to say in

the united states but this is pretty

critical

of the individuals in south africa who

are

getting coveted the vast majority of

them either have been vaccinated which

is a very low percentage less than 30

percent are vaccinated or

they have had a prior exposure to covet

this could actually be leading to a rise

of less severe cases in south africa

than we might expect to see in other

countries specifically the united states

see

research indicates that in south africa

we have the majority of folks quote the

majority of folks according to the new

york times from two days ago the

majority of residents have already been

affected with covid only one-fourth of

them are fully vaccinated we generally

get under 30 percent or between

one-fourth and 30 percent

and that the vast majority of

individuals in south africa have had

quote some level of protection in south

africa and that there is much more hurt

immunity in south africa and in fact

statistically it looks like 70 percent

of the population has had antibodies

before we even count the vaccinated

individuals

that means

once you factor in vaccinated

individuals plus people who have had

coveted before

almost your entire population has some

form of protection to covet a lot of

herd immunity here this could

potentially be making covets seem less

harmful in south african statistics

that's because if you've had prior

exposure to covin you might still get

covet again in fact right now we know

that your odds of getting covered uh

again or your protection against getting

omicron is only about 19 if you've had a

prior infection a prior illness so in

other words prior illness only protects

you about 19 which is pretty bad that's

less protection than with a two dose

vaccine

obviously substantially less than if you

had a recent booster recent boosters

like what we saw this morning with the

moderna news recent boosters are really

helping pump up your antibodies but

again even the moderna news only told us

that antibodies are really strong and

powerful for the first 29 days they

haven't yet done research on great how

long is that immunity going to last

three months isn't going to carry us

through this winter season who knows

maybe not and so that's another problem

that we have with moderna even though

moderna was doing well in the stock

market today the rest of the stock

market was not doing well so anyway so

you've got the substantial level of herd

immunity in south africa which is really

interesting and it's important to

consider because something that prevents

severe disease is some form of an

immunity whether it's prior illness or

vaccine

that's because your t cells even though

the antibodies aren't doing so well t

cells are working very very well against

omicron and t cells are one of the ways

that we can help prevent severe disease

now in addition to that we've got me as

your stock doc of course

in addition to that and this is the

third big issue that we've got to look

at okay so number one is localization in

south africa number two folks number two

is the issue that we have of herd

immunity in south africa many more

people have some form of t-cell

protection in south africa than we do in

other places the third

third big issue that we have in south

africa is the fact that in south africa

the population is actually substantially

younger than the population in the

united states the median age in south

africa median age is

27.6 years old the median age in the

united states is 38.1 years old this

means our bell curve is substantially

older in the united states compared to

south africa especially since we're

talking median here not average

now it's too early to know with

certainty but so far we know omicron has

been relatively mild we know there is a

lot of fear uncertainty and doubt we

know that it's too early to determine

are we going to see hospitalizations

rise and are we going to see deaths rise

in the united states we do expect to see

hospitalizations and deaths rise from

delta but that could coincide at the

same time as we see omicron infections

rise but

when we blend these three issues

together what is the stock market left

with and what is the stock market hate

again me is your stock doc you should

know by now what does the stock market

hate you should already be saying it

unfreaking certainty so when people

leave comments or tweets all the time oh

this is all just fun it's just fud bingo

it is fud because it's fear and

uncertainty and there's a doubt we don't

have the answer of how omicron is going

to play out in the united states and

this is why comparing to south africa is

overly simplistic we have to look at

localization data in south africa we

have to consider the substantial amount

of actual herd immunity mostly from

prior infection or exposure you have

meaning most of the infections that

we're seeing in south africa are

secondary infections they're not primary

infections big big big difference

compared to the united states and number

three you've got a much younger

population in south africa and folks

this is really critical to understand as

well over 62 percent of americans have a

full dose of the vaccine in america

meaning they should have that t cell

response that's over about 210 million

americans but unfortunately that still

leaves somewhere around 130 million

americans who do not have the vaccine

well let's say you take that 125 million

americans and assume that only people

who never got the vaccine have gotten

coveted which is not going to be true

but this is to be conservative that

means we take 125 million americans who

have not had the vaccine subtract 50

million cases that we've had in america

that means 75 million americans could

potentially be without a vaccine-induced

t cell t helper cell response or prior

illness

t helper cell response

that's 75 million americans matches what

npr believes would be 66 to 70 million

americans that potentially have no

protection against coven that compares

to almost an entire south african

population

with some form of protection against

covet so wait a minute oh my gosh when

you look at it that way 66 divided by

340 that means 20 percent of americans

one in five americans could have no

protection against covet whereas in

south africa maybe one out of twenty did

not have some form of protection against

coving so when we look at those south

african statistics you gotta take them

with a grain of salt so why is the

market freaking out why is the market

uncertain because we've got two totally

different data sets here and it is way

too simplistic to just go

well things are fine in south africa so

they'll be fine here as well

i'm not trying to play fud i'm just

simply trying to say as your stock

market doctor in case you're wondering

why the market's selling off where that

leftover uncertainty is for something

that's deemed to be a nothing burger

which in fairness i have called it

myself because i think the illness is

relatively mild

i'm simply providing a reason why the

market is continuing to hold on to some

fear i don't agree with it look i'm

investing i'm buying

don't get me wrong like i'm investing

i'm not shorting the market anymore

either i'm investing in this market so i

think these are bargains

but let's be real

the market does not always align with

exactly what we believe sometimes the

market stays fearful a lot longer anyway

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for watching and folks we'll see you

next one thanks so much goodbye