The Crypto President | What Trump-Vance Means for Bitcoin & Crypto.

in this video we're going to address

whether I think Bitcoin is going to go

up in the short medium and longterm and

we're going to break this down into

those three parts and I'll give you my

reasons for all of them it's worth

noting that I correctly predicted the

double top of Bitcoin in

2021 nearly both of the dates to the day

using some CPI tricks and Analysis on

bitcoin's Behavior here uh I also called

the stable coin collapse I warned of the

collapse of cryptocurrency exchanges

well before they happened and I recently

called for Bitcoin to go under

$588,000 which it did it fell all the

way down to approximately 53,000 as we

were getting a lot of liquidations from

the German government and some

associations to mount GA now that might

now be behind us which is really great

news which means now we can focus on the

short term what do we have to look

forward to or do we have something to

look forward to in the short term the

answer here is yes the first thing we

have is the likely approval and start to

trading of the

ethereum ETFs remember ETFs are exchange

traded funds and we've seen incredible

inflows into the Bitcoin exchange traded

funds and we expect a lot more

mainstream adoption for cryptocurrencies

by financial advisers and institutions

when they have access to them through

ETFs now hardcore crypto enthusiasts

look at this and go I don't need a

Bitcoin ETF I want the keys not your

keys not your crypto but many who use

ethereum or Bitcoin as a hedge in a

portfolio or even within another ETF

they don't have that luxury for for

example I operate an actively managed

exchange traded fund I can't own crypto

in this unless it is in another security

wrapper like another ETF so it's kind of

like an ETF holding an ETF along with

other positions by having Bitcoin and

ethereum ETFs I can put into my ETF

Bitcoin exposure or ethereum exposure

which I couldn't otherwise do and since

ETFs are growing in such popularity we

think the inflows into these sort of

crypto ETFs will continue to rise so

that way actively and passively managed

ETFs exchange traded funds can have

exposure to these Assets in the short

term in addition to the ethereum ETF

start to trading We Believe or starts to

trading since there'll be multiple of

them we believe that the potential

election of Donald Trump uh would be

expected to be a boon to the crypto

Market both Bitcoin ethereum and of

course the rest of the alts now Donald

Trump just today announced his VP

candidate JD Vance JD Vance has

disclosed that he owns about 100 to

$250,000 worth of bitcoin in his

coinbase account this is an indication

that JD Vance might be Pro Bitcoin and

pro crypto it's not just that though JD

Vance has also suggested he was

preparing to introduce a full crypto

plan in July that would overhaul the

cftc and the Security and Exchange

Commission cftc being the commodity

Futures and trading commission Vance

mentioned that he would introduce the

legislation next month in June so we

might expect an introduction to some

form of crypto plan this month though

I'm not going to hold my breath now that

he's been essentially chosen as the VP

nominee for Donald Trump I don't really

think JD is going to want to rock the

boat think about how much he rocked the

boat in September when he introduced a

bill to remove the $7,500 vehicle tax

credit from electric vehicle

manufacturers and give that

$7,500 to G gas powerered vehicles

that's something that really upset the

electric vehicle Community this came

from the inflation reduction act but in

my opinion this which is a bill that

died in committee anyway last year it's

a dead bill you don't really have to

worry about this it hasn't been

reintroduced as far as I can tell the

point of this was really a messaging

bill it was a messaging Bill to suggest

hey I support the UAW and it was

introduced in September of 2023 which

what else happened in September of 2023

the UAW worker well United Auto Workers

strikes so that in my opinion was really

a messaging Bill uh to suggest he

supports unions I don't necessarily

think it was a way to say hey I'm anti

EV it was a way to say hey he supports

unions now the other thing to know or

why this relates in the first place is

by suggesting hey I'm going to introduce

an overhaul of the SEC and the commodity

Futures Trading commission to make it

more conducive to invest in

cryptocurrencies it really sends a

message that JD is a crypto homie so to

speak he's all for people being able to

and having the rights to invest in these

assets without ridiculous regulation

from the government that makes it hard

for Brokers to legally and compliantly

or operate in a compliant manner makes

it hard for them to do so for example JD

voted uh with a crypto bill to make sure

that banks no longer have to disclose

cryp crypto assets as liabilities but

that bill even though it was voted on

and passed was later vetoed by the Biden

Administration and when I say Biden

Administration technically Joe Biden

vetoed it but let's be clear the Biden

Administration vetoed

it anyway in the short term the choice

of JD Vance is probably good for

cryptocurrencies the ethereum ETFs are

probably good for cryptocurrencies and

the potential election of Donald Trump

all probably good for crypto currencies

so the more likely it is that Donald

Trump gets elected the more likely it is

in our opinion that cryptocurrencies

rise in value and this brings up the

unfortunate and near assassination

attempt uh of Donald Trump this has been

related to two different assassination

attempts the most recent one being

Reagan in uh

1981 and then of course we also had the

assassination attempt on uh Teddy Ro

Roosevelt Teddy Roosevelt's an

interesting one we're going to talk

about that in a moment now after Reagan

uh had this attempted assassination in '

81 he wanted a landslide victory in 84 I

mean I think only if I remember

correctly only uh Michigan uh or no it

was Minnesota only

Minnesota voted blue in the Electoral

College everywhere else in the country

voted red for r

with the exception also of DC I'm pretty

sure DC was blue anyway the point is he

wanted a landslide a lot of people

credit the assassination attempt as

rallying people around voting for

somebody that they believed in as people

who didn't know they wanted to vote

wanted to vote people who knew they were

going to vote but weren't sure they were

going to make it out made it out to

express their support for Reagan now

there could have also been a lot of

other reasons as to why Reagan got

elected the economy was doing much

better interest rates were finally

coming down after Paul vulker raised

them to extreme highs so there are

plenty which actually parallels to now

right under Joe Biden we got the highest

interest rates because of the choices of

the Federal Reserve obviously thanks to

inflation and some other issues uh but a

a new Administration will probably have

the benefit of lower rates either way uh

Reagan in 81 did benefit from a stronger

economy in the mid 80s sort of an

economy coming out of a hole maybe now

we're starting to come out of sort of

postco like adjustment everyone's been

going through but the assassination

attempt has been really credited for

helping Reagan win well why then when

there was an assassination attempt on

Teddy Roosevelt did he lose well even

though Teddy Roosevelt as Legend has it

was giving a speech was shot in the

chest and then kept giving his near

90minut speech and then went on to live

for another approximately 7 years

thereafter with a bullet in his

chest one of the reasons he was able to

keep going was apparently it didn't

Lodge too deeply or didn't hid an organ

he had like a 50-page speech set of

documents in his chest he also had a

metal glasses case covering uh the exact

spot where the bullet hit so he got

quite lucky but why did Teddy Roosevelt

lose then well Teddy lost because he ran

third party not necessarily because

people didn't want Teddy Roosevelt he

already ran and had two successful terms

before that so he was actually going for

a third term as president uh and he was

running third party a lot of people

actually think because he ran third

party he lost not because uh the

assassination attempt rule uh might not

hold but anyway the argument here is

that there's a reason why Teddy lost and

while there could be a reason why Reagan

won a lot of people liked him even

Democrats liked him uh it is possible

the assassination element could help

boost crypto in the short term so you've

got a lot of positive short-term

elements for Bitcoin and crypto and

general uh you've got Trump you've got

JD you've got the assassination attempt

uh and really you've got this continued

failure of Joe Biden now when we talk

about this continued failure of Joe

Biden is really important to remember

that're we're not trying to politicize

the issue by suggesting oh Joe Biden uh

is is a problem or is bad for crypto

we're trying to be very blunt and

blatant in saying that Joe Biden is

unfortunately scile and he's not making

the decisions I I I really feel bad for

that because I it's not something he can

it's not your choice if you know you

have dementia and you turn scile uh but

it's really up to his cabinet and his

administration to help regulate crypto

and streamline crypto regulation and

let's be clear his administration has no

interest in doing this and this contract

pass to Donald Trump who's now confessed

to wanting to be the first United States

crypto president so in the short term

between now and the election on November

5th I actually think there's quite a

high likelihood that Bitcoin ends up

breaking 880,000 which would be greater

than all-time highs Now Fair disclosure

I have opened a position in Bitcoin I

did so this weekend and I sent an alert

to everybody in my course member live

streams you can learn more about those

over at meetkevin.com in addition to

that I also this morning sent another

alert that it opened a large option

position on a particular ticker which is

also in my fund but I'm not advertising

my fund here this is not an

advertisement of fund I want to be very

clear about that uh and it is bit X now

bitx is very dangerous it is a

2X Leverage

ETF that means if Bitcoin goes up from

let's say 80,000 it goes up to

$160,000 which would be a

double uh and let's say you had $80,000

in it rather than having $80 you would

be getting 80 and another 80 which is

awesome uh and this would be the benefit

of a leveraged ETF now the downside is

if Bitcoin loses 20% in value at 880,000

let's say that would be minus 16 on a

normal but with a 2X leverage you'd be

down down 32 so this is just an example

of how a 2X leveraged ETF could hurt you

and I would be very careful on those I

think those are investments that you

really make uh that are more sort of um

bets uh or trades so just beware that

leveraged ETFs are generally not for

long-term trading but I do think between

now in the election there is some

desirability into uh this sort of

Bitcoin X ETF I'm not affiliated with

them it's not my ETF I'm not sponsored

by them or anything uh but I think it's

interesting it's a 2X leveraged ETF you

get 2x the return if it goes up it's

great if it goes up bad if it goes down

uh anyway so I do have exposure to this

and want to be very clear about that

that is how I'm playing it I'm playing

it by you know investing in in Bitcoin

itself but then also the leveraged ETF

okay so that's the shortterm so now

let's briefly hit the medium term the

medium term is really going to be post

elction and the medium term really

breaks down to what's going to happen

with inflation so I'm going to put Mt

for medium term and in my opinion

everything here comes down to inflation

I realize that folks see Bitcoin as an

inflation hedge but really Bitcoin is

not in my opinion an inflation hedge

what it is it's a hedge against the US

dollar and usually usually when you have

an inflation or an inflationary

environment the actual underlying

currency of that country becomes worth

less and less and less it's purchasing

power goes down as the money supply

expands and uh Bitcoin sort of protects

your purchasing power that's the idea of

being an inflation hedge but it doesn't

necessarily mean that Bitcoin doesn't go

down in value obviously we've seen

during 20202 when stocks were were

plummeting Bitcoin was plummeting as

well so that's why some see it as more

of a risk asset than an inflation hedge

but let's be clear the idea of it being

an inflation hedge is a way of saying

look I want to move some of the money

that I have away from the dollar because

it's always going to go down in value

they're never going to stop inflating

the darn thing is what it seems like and

in the history of Fiat currencies

currencies have always been inflated

away to zero and they've always

collapsed there is no fiat currency that

has ever survived in the long term but

this doesn't matter so much for the

medium term for the medium term I you

know inflation the way to look at this

is the more inflation goes down in other

words The More We Get

disinflation probably the better it is

for Bitcoin because what you want is you

want disinflation because then you could

get rates down uh and then you'll

probably see a continued absent of Crash

obviously rise in asset values like real

estate like stocks like bonds

and like crypto so what do we expect for

inflation well if we look at really the

leading indicators of the leftover junk

that we have in inflation most of it is

shelter and the labor department just

today released an update on their index

that uh housing related inflation just

fell from

5.4% in q1 down to

3.9% in Q2 which is a massive drop and

uh if we actually compare for new leases

rather than existing leases for housing

cost if we look at new leases this

actually came in negative in other words

we're starting to see some of the

leftover portions that are leaving

inflation high com in negative which is

a great indicator that we're going to be

able to get those rate Cuts soon right

now we're pricing in one rate cut for

September we're pricing in a second rate

cut for November November and uh by uh

January we're pricing in about 3.3 rate

Cuts so that could be a third cut in

December and then you know who knows in

in January what happens or they'll skip

a meeting or whatever but anyway that's

what the Market's pricing in now and

that should also be good for uh crypto

going forward that's Bitcoin ethereum

and the alts as long as we don't have a

jobless recession see if we don't get

disinf

rapidly enough the effects of high

interest rates could end up taking hold

in the medium term which is generally

considered to be 6 months to 18 months

so call this 6 to 18 months uh I like to

call this postelection at least that

somewhat aligns roughly five months from

the time of making this video uh and so

I would say post election the biggest

risk here is that you have a lot of job

loss which leads to the liquidation of

assets which leads to GDP contraction

leads to a recession which I do think in

the medium term would be very bad for

cryptocurrencies especially a leveraged

ETF okay so now we have the medium term

out of the way uh and we have the

shortterm out of the way what about the

longterm okay so the long term is uh

generally where we compare Bitcoin to

Gold uh and really the the best thing

that keeps the longterm going for

Bitcoin is is we hope that regulation is

going to help and so that's why we hope

that an Administration like this will

help personally I think you're going to

get more benefits out of that in the

short term than you will in the long

term because usually there's a lot of

Hope in government policy and the

reality is usually a lot more depressing

so positive regulation is is a longer

term hope uh the second thing uh that we

hope here uh is that the continued sort

of scarcity uh of Bitcoin will um lead

people to continue to use Bitcoin there

we go kind of write that right whatever

as a as a way to store

value uh there is a downside to this

scarcity argument as well though and

that's that if we do go into an

environment of very low inflation

because of the creative destruction

forces of innovation through artificial

intelligence or whatever we actually

start running into an environment where

we're running below inflation targets

the scarcity and purchasing power hedge

might become less important the

inflation hedge right the oh no our

currency is about to implode hedge long

term that might be important very long

very very long term I should say that'

be like V longterm but uh you know after

like two years from now so we'll call

this two years

out uh I would say really you want to

see regulation coming in to help support

crypto prices you actually kind of want

to see some inflation so that way you

know there's a continued reason to buy

cryptocurrencies and then of course

there will always be a reason to buy

cryptocurrencies for uh having access to

your own Capital having the government

out of your life uh this is very

important and that also increases what

we call the network effects the more

people using it would mean the more

people transacting in it other countries

taking uh you know uh enabling the use

of uh cryptocurrencies as money uh like

an El Salvador or corporations having

cryptocurrency on their balance sheets

all of these things would be very very

beneficial uh however you are going to

compete against gold and nobody likes

this argument and you're also going to

compete against Fiat so even though Fiat

is frankly worthless it's paper money it

does have four things going for it that

unless you get a lot of really good

regulation it's really hard to fight uh

first of of all Fiat is protected by a

strong economy the stronger the US

economy goes uh or and the longer it

lasts as a strong economy the more

supported the US dollar is that doesn't

mean you should hold the dollar I'm a

big fan of holding assets like stocks or

real estate or you know cryptocurrencies

that sometimes over Fiat I think you

should always get your money out of Fiat

but you know whatever so a strong

economy the other thing Fiat has always

going for it until you have governments

really adopted as tender which I'll tell

you why I don't think they will you have

the military then you have trade you got

to have the dollar to trade with us uh

and then of course Reserve

currency so that reserves could end up

going away but you're still going to

have uh trade military might and strong

economy all of these are really benefits

to Fiat they could be benefits in the

long term to

cryptocurrencies but I have a fear that

there's some reason why that might not

happen and the reason I suggest that

might not happen is because there's

something really addicting about being

able to do this one thing that you can't

do with Bitcoin and it's called print

money now technically the Federal

Reserve doesn't really print money

anymore they just digitally alter it and

the treasury Department you know

transfers between the two and they send

the money to Banks and stuff and blah

blah blah

whatever the easiest way to think about

it is the government creates money out

of thin air you can't do that with

Bitcoin you've got that 21 million total

Supply here will probably stop mining

Bitcoin sometime in 2140 which we don't

have to worry about that point we'll

still be mining Bitcoin for quite a

while here but you can't print more

after that there's there's this finite

Supply which theoretically having a

finite Supply should increase its value

right we'll come back to that we're

going to talk about this this idea here

of a uh you know what I'll write it over

here we'll write uh finite Supply which

really goes in is sort of a subo of 0

two over here anyway but I just want to

make a note there to touch on it so the

idea though of printing money is very

addicting and I think that when

countries Le I think they go through

these phases uh when a country fails so

a currency fails I think it's going to

be very easy to go to something like

Bitcoin or what they used to do is

they'd go to the dollar uh and they use

it as a Crux uh or or crutch I should

say you kind of use it to get back on

your feet like you went bankrupt and you

got to restart right so they use Bitcoin

or the dollar or whatever to get back up

on their feet once they're back up on

the feet their feet somebody is going to

go back to reintroducing some form of

Fiat and a Central Bank in my opinion

because it allows the Ponzi of printing

money to start again and people might go

well why would anybody vote for that

well because the Fiat candidates are

going to promise you a bunch of free

money and the real money candidates are

not going to offer you free money so

people are constantly going to make the

same mistake forever and Eternity and

they're always going to revote back in

Fiat and you know Central Banking policy

so I don't think you're ever going to

actually Escape Fiat this is going to

look different every Century you have

sort of different Fiat that rules the

world uh so that's always going to be

this long-term Temptation that I think

unfortunately keeps real money and

Bitcoin out uh as a as a long-term

government asset again they might want

you to be able to invest in it or

whatever positive regulation but this is

where the finite Supply issue comes in

even though Bitcoin has a finite Supply

there's more to

supply

than uh just Supply that drives Price

Right Price is always equal to a balance

between demand and Supply or supply and

demand the supply and demand curve right

it's always a balance of the

two so then the question is okay well if

we have a limited Supply price is solely

determined by

demand

correct and this means we need people to

keep buying Bitcoin for it to go up

correct so when do people like buying

Bitcoin people love buying Bitcoin or

crypto in general when it's going up now

that doesn't mean it can't dip and be

volatile but as long as this trend is up

and there's this consistent belief that

oh there's something else coming the

election of trump the choice of JD the

ETFs a positive crypto regulation over

the next few years whatever whatever

whatever uh you know funds adopting uh

exposure to crypto whatever it is as

long as there's a belief that demand

will continue to rise driving price up

price will probably go up it's

self-fulfilling but the problem H is

what happens when after some period of

time Bitcoin let's say hits I'll just

make it up hits $150,000

and then it comes down I'm just making

this up to

$120,000 and then it

stagnates and we have this period right

here of let's say 10 years of

stagnation well you might lose the

desire of people to continue to buy it

and that means once people start selling

you could slowly Trend down and not

trying to be a Bitcoin be and this is

not necessarily what's going to happen

this is just an argument that some

people make that the the the long

longterm demand over the next decades

may not be as robust as people believe

and again I'm just trying to provide a

balanced argument on both sides here

this is where people say oh you know

well gold is interesting because gold

has something that Bitcoin doesn't and

that is an

intrinsic value so even though we do

mine new gold about 3 to 3 and a half

trillion metric tons a year here we use

gold in practical purposes we need it we

can't just pick something else because

about 8% of gold once you net out the

Recycled gold that we use uh for

electronics is used in electronics and

semiconductors about 50% of gold is used

in jewelry once you net out recycling

you're probably about 40% so even though

Supply is growing it's growing very at a

very very slow rate because it does have

an intrinsic value uh and that's not to

say that Bitcoin doesn't necessarily

butd if it were Bitcoin or Bitcoin 2.0

all all of the same principles could

apply but we can't as easily replace

gold uh with something else uh we still

need it for specific purposes uh so this

is where a lot of folks who are gold

bugs argue that that gold could have a

longer term uh upside I I don't

necessarily know if that's true but it's

something to think of so

uh what I think uh we've done here is

provided a balanced overview uh and I'd

like to give a bit of a summary here of

my thoughts so that way you can kind of

see where my mindset is on this and

remember you could always go to meet

kevin.com to learn more about my

perspectives on building your wealth uh

we do course member live streams every

day where we like to do fundamental

analysis or real estate analysis or

answer your questions or whatever it

might be so uh let's summarize this in

the short term my opinion is that we are

probably going to 80k plus by

election in the medium term so this

would be post election I absent a

recession medium term I'm going to say

absent uh

recession I do think it's possible that

we could get as high as about 200,000 I

think that's probably where we tap out

in the medium

term in the long

term I don't know I don't know uh this

is really going to come down to what

actual regulation do we

get once all the beneficial catalysts

are gone of companies coming on or

countries coming on or funds coming on

what direction do we go do we actually

go to sort of a Cathy woodi and target

of 1.5 million uh or do we go to 15,000

I have no idea but what I would say is

for the for the lens that I could look

at going out from now and I can't really

see in the future at all but my thesis

is that we're probably absent a

recession up from here what happens in

the long term absolutely no idea I could

see either of these realities happening

again if countries go back to Fiat after

having Bitcoin and it just ends up being

a bridge

tool it could be closer to a low number

everybody's adopting it as real

tender thanks so much for watching ad

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

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seeo congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin PA there financial analyst

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