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holy cr$p -- bullocks !

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0:00

massive Catalyst we got to talk about

0:01

this week and holy smokes

0:03

congratulations to those of you who went

0:05

in on those Tesla calls with me on

0:07

Friday uh my butt was hurting on Friday

0:10

because I was buying the dip on these

0:12

suckers and on Friday the stock was

0:15

let's just say volatile but it gave me

0:18

some really cheap entries on some Tesla

0:19

call options short-term Tesla call

0:21

options I was like 100k deep on these

0:23

and they turned into a 500K profit this

0:25

morning and I'm like it's probably going

0:27

to keep going up but I'm going to take

0:28

that profit right now I can always open

0:30

another trade so wow congratulations to

0:33

the course members who are part of that

0:34

if you want to be part of the course

0:35

remember coupon code expires tomorrow

0:37

April 30th uh stocks and psychology

0:39

money group just go to meetkevin.com you

0:41

get all my trade alerts I don't promise

0:42

you're always going to win but I'm just

0:44

transparent with my ideas and my trades

0:46

and take it from there if you got

0:47

questions email at staff atme kevin.com

0:48

so reminder because I tax lost harvested

0:52

not only did I avoid the potential down

0:55

if Tesla had missed on

0:57

earnings but I also am not going to be

1:02

paying taxes on that trade or quite a

1:04

few of the other gains what happened

1:07

this morning and what Catalyst to expect

1:09

well obviously we've got earnings week

1:11

uh this week we've got AMD pay attention

1:14

to AMD that sucker has been trading down

1:16

for a long time uh I you know and I know

1:19

AI has certain certainly come off of its

1:20

BB but let's see if AI uh can impress

1:23

tomorrow with AMD so I'm watching AMD

1:26

tomorrow is ECI I'm not actually worried

1:28

about that that's the employment cost

1:29

cost index report q1 uh survey says 1%

1:34

the FED watches that pretty closely

1:35

obviously we got the FED meeting on

1:37

Wednesday I'm not so worried about q1

1:39

I'm actually more worried about Q2

1:42

because of what that's going to say for

1:44

wage growth because that's when

1:45

California's wage increase affected or

1:47

went into effect in Q2 April 1st and so

1:50

you're really not going to get an ECI

1:52

move in my opinion until the second

1:53

quarter that could potentially be bad

1:55

for the FED uh and I don't think jpow is

1:57

going to jpow us uh this week mostly

2:00

because I think JP is in this position

2:03

of hey we're in a good place with

2:06

monetary policy yeah we've had a little

2:07

bit warmer data but we expected bumps

2:10

and the economy is holding up now I know

2:13

we're definitely seeing some transition

2:14

and joblessness uh but those numbers

2:17

aren't really being represented because

2:18

they're so offset by gains and Retail

2:20

Hospitality uh and um government and

2:23

Healthcare employment but uh and I know

2:25

I do know there's some pain though in

2:27

tacking layoffs in certain sectors of

2:29

the economy which frustrates a lot of

2:30

people but one thing that should be

2:31

really frustrating is what's going on

2:33

with the Atlanta fed real GDP now holy

2:35

smokes have you seen what it did so

2:38

remember the q1 estimates came in last

2:39

week at 1.6% and everybody's like

2:42

stagflation myself included I'm like

2:44

that's a stagflationary report I'm like

2:46

but but that was driven down by a lack

2:49

of inventory buildup and

2:51

exports companies aren't building up

2:52

inventory right now because you don't

2:54

need to we're not going into this covid

2:56

situation where you need this massive

2:57

Supply I think we're going to go back to

2:59

Justin time inventory because it's going

3:01

to help companies EPS uh and and uh

3:04

helps prevent inventory obsolesence

3:06

which is really what hurt a company a

3:08

lot like ubiquity but you look at like

3:10

the Atlanta fed real GDP Index right now

3:12

this sucker is at

3:15

3.9% GDP is almost at 3.9% per the

3:18

Atlanta GDP now index just crazy uh so

3:21

now I'm cash right now well I'm not all

3:24

cash right now I've got a good chunk of

3:25

cash right now but from what I'm getting

3:28

in these earnings reports it might make

3:30

sense to start finding dips and

3:32

allocating to dips uh because the the

3:35

bad news is coming in less bad than

3:38

expected which is very exciting to me uh

3:41

so that creates some opportunities to

3:43

now buy certain stocks lower like I was

3:45

trimming Nvidia you know in the 900s uh

3:48

and and now we're at eight uh something

3:51

so you know it's not a huge discount be

3:53

nice to see a little bit more there but

3:55

uh let's take a look at this I want you

3:57

to see this just a quick couple updates

4:00

here uh this is a little personal but I

4:03

just want to say uh look at this look at

4:06

this these children you may have already

4:08

seen the post that's summer right there

4:11

she is home it's bittersweet because I

4:13

can't be there with her uh she went

4:15

through absolute hell that's Jay Violet

4:18

and summer these are twins same age

4:20

twins identical twins and you can see

4:22

her coloring is not that good you know

4:24

she's gone through some serious

4:26

trauma uh I wish I could be there with

4:29

them I'm doing the house hack Road Show

4:31

we've got uh Toronto today uh Denver

4:35

today uh Chicago today then tomorrow we

4:40

have Austin Dallas

4:42

Houston uh you know it's it's

4:47

um medical problems are are like hellish

4:50

and so I just want to say my heart goes

4:52

out to everybody uh who goes through

4:54

this there's just there's nothing you

4:55

can do other than have faith uh and it's

4:58

it's really really hard I do want to say

5:00

shout out to uh here's a picture for or

5:02

it's a little video clip but I won't

5:03

play it it's a teer bro this was us at

5:05

the T bro airport house investors over

5:07

here I guess I could actually just play

5:09

uh you can kind of see it sort of move

5:10

around here but anyway um uh thank you

5:13

for coming out to the road show this was

5:14

really cool T bro folks here really fun

5:17

house act 2024 cheer there um hope to

5:20

see you there fundraising deadlines

5:22

obviously May 1st for that day after

5:24

that coupon expires but uh as far as my

5:27

positioning just want to be clear the uh

5:30

the only shorts uh that I have are these

5:32

it's what I'm wearing right now sorry I

5:34

wear I like wearing short shorts they're

5:36

really comfortable but uh yeah look this

5:38

is

5:39

um uh this this GDP growth we have to be

5:43

real about it's going to probably lead

5:45

to continued growth in in earnings at

5:47

companies and quite frankly delaying a

5:50

recession at some point there will be a

5:52

recession we all know that but the

5:54

reality is these earnings are good I've

5:56

been saying that for many days now these

5:58

earnings are good and again well I'm not

6:00

always perfect I try my best to just be

6:01

transparent these earnings are good this

6:03

is not bad what we've been getting I

6:06

think this week 20% of the S&P 500

6:08

reports we're going to get more of this

6:10

mostly good data we'll see uh but I'm

6:13

looking every single day and I'm reading

6:15

these earnings calls on a daily basis

6:16

and I'm just not seeing the pain in the

6:20

earnings calls yet which again that's

6:22

optimistic not only is that optimistic

6:25

but this GDP skyrocketing I don't think

6:28

it's going to lead jpw to go put pow uh

6:30

to where he punches Us in the face and

6:32

says we got to raise rates I do not see

6:34

that happening inflation break evens are

6:36

coming down again they were skyrocketing

6:38

that made me very nervous they're back

6:40

down again we're at about um

6:42

2.44 right now which is down quite a bit

6:45

uh and the 10e is sitting you know

6:48

stable actually today to to down two

6:50

basis points so you know we're still

6:52

obviously in inverted yield curve

6:53

territory so there's still some you know

6:55

issues in the economy

6:57

but right now at least in the near term

7:00

we we may have had a dippy dudla here uh

7:03

that that might start meriting some more

7:05

by the dipping so that's what I'm going

7:07

to be paying attention to very very

7:08

closely is where can I get some buy the

7:11

dip opportunities now I do want to talk

7:12

Tesla so let's touch Tesla uh Tesla this

7:17

buo

7:18

agreement I'm I'm like I'm excited about

7:21

it but I'm a little torn let me explain

7:23

I'm really excited that this means we

7:25

could get FSD Licensing in in China so

7:27

we could get revenues from there that

7:29

should show the rest of the world that

7:31

if China's cool with our FSD that maybe

7:33

the rest of the world should be cool

7:34

with our FSD and believe in the autonomy

7:36

that Tesla is investing in but I want to

7:38

be clear Elon said this weekend that

7:40

they're going to be investing1 billion

7:42

into artificial intelligence this year

7:45

that was not on my bingo card that is

7:47

that is not how I've been underwriting

7:48

Tesla that is way more capex uh in their

7:52

earnings call mind you in their earnings

7:54

call and I'm I'm bullish on like don't

7:55

worry don't mind you like let me be

7:57

clear I'm bullish on FSD

8:00

but you know I I don't think it's going

8:01

to be Robo taxi as soon as people think

8:03

and I want you to see this snippet from

8:05

the earnings call so the earnings call

8:07

here says we had negative free cash flow

8:10

of 2.5 billion in the first quarter uh

8:12

the primary driver of this was an

8:14

increase in inventory from a mismatch in

8:16

builds and deliveries and as discussed

8:18

before our elevated capex across various

8:21

in various initiatives including AI

8:24

compute we expect inventory builds to

8:27

the inventory build problem to reverse

8:28

in the second quarter and free cash flow

8:30

turn positive again Elon also says yes I

8:33

think we can be free cash flow positive

8:35

meaningfully that's great but if if you

8:38

were negative $2.5 billion of free cash

8:40

flow on q1 and now you're saying you're

8:42

going to spend a total of10 billion this

8:44

year on

8:46

AI did did you you know like H

8:50

how so like I'm confused about that I'm

8:54

I'm a little torn on that I'm like how

8:56

how are you going to be free cash flow

8:58

positive with with $10 billion of AR SP

9:01

I I'm not sure about that I'm a little

9:02

torn on that I think there's some

9:04

cognitive dissidence there on on hopium

9:06

and expectations so I'm I'm that's

9:08

something I have to analyze I I'd like

9:10

to hear what you think in the comments

9:11

but I'm like H when I saw that I'm like

9:14

what now obviously we got that good news

9:15

with with China here but but I think it

9:17

is offset by a risk factor uh that I

9:20

think some of the Tesla Ultra bulls will

9:23

ignore but I don't think it's it merits

9:25

ignoring that and remember we didn't

9:27

actually like nothing has changed for

9:30

FSD uh it's just now going to be

9:33

available in more areas if anything

9:35

which is good there is another risk

9:37

though consider this Buu licensing the

9:41

mapping data potentially also means

9:43

licensing the camera data which you

9:47

realize there's this risk that when they

9:50

have this mapping data they're going to

9:52

be in a potential position to say uh now

9:57

we're going to take all this data and

9:59

use our black market h100s or whatever

10:02

and we're going to come up with our own

10:04

neural Nets to have full self driving

10:06

because now you're giving us all the

10:07

data just saying I'm not sure but

10:10

there's I don't know the all the details

10:12

of the buo agreement but I'm a little

10:14

nervous about that that if Tesla's

10:15

handing over all the camera data it's

10:17

giving China a massive win uh certainly

10:22

I would expect that camera data would

10:23

only be in China otherwise obviously the

10:25

Biden Administration would freak out and

10:26

have a heart

10:27

attack not that they already like Elon

10:30

anyway uh but they should you know they

10:32

should he is he is doing the most for

10:34

climate change than more for climate

10:36

change than anyone else I I could think

10:38

of but anyway whatever okay so so that's

10:40

Tesla that's GDP that's ECI not worried

10:42

about ECI tomorrow optimistic on

10:44

earnings the earnings have been good not

10:45

worried about GDP I'm still a little

10:47

cash

10:48

heavy I I think that's going to create

10:50

Bu The Dip opportunities for me over the

10:52

next you know month or two uh and so

10:54

you're going to see me slowly deploying

10:56

and uh I I I don't need to be rash I

10:58

don't need to Rush this but

11:01

um thank you uh thank you so much for

11:04

being here I I do want to say uh those

11:06

of you who are investing in house hack

11:09

uh or are considering investing in house

11:10

hack read the PPM but something to know

11:12

about house Haack is we are we are going

11:15

to build uh what I believe will be uh a

11:20

an M1 Finance Style version of investing

11:22

in real estate which I'm very excited

11:23

about or Robin Hood of real estate you

11:25

know think about pies where you can

11:27

invest in you know know uh real estate

11:32

that's you know in red States that's in

11:33

blue States that's uh you know

11:35

commercial real estate that's that are

11:36

short-term rentals long-term rentals

11:38

whatever we'll have all of that um

11:42

um I think that's very exciting so

11:47

um stay tuned for that learn more over

11:50

at house Haack uh.com 2024 again we have

11:53

a deadline on Wednesday and I'm sorry

11:55

about that we just have a big

11:56

foreclosure coming up on May 6th and uh

11:59

while we could finance that foreclosure

12:01

deal we would have to forego another

12:03

deal that we're doing so we're kind of

12:05

like picking between the two and we'd

12:06

like to buy both of them uh and so right

12:09

now we're just operating on a cash basis

12:11

so that's why there's a little bit of a

12:12

of a rush there but anyway uh we do have

12:15

a coupon code expiring as well tomorrow

12:17

in the stocks and psychology of money

12:18

group make sure you check that out if

12:19

you have questions or need to bundle up

12:21

email us at staff ATM kevin.com uh I'm

12:23

going to play a little clip here of uh

12:25

some of the things people were saying

12:26

this morning in the stock market open

12:28

live stream it's pretty incredible uh

12:30

again no guarantees we can pull off

12:31

trades like that all the time I just

12:33

trade ideas you know you could join you

12:34

could lose money I want to be very clear

12:36

about that I make mistakes okay I'm not

12:38

perfect but um check that out stocks and

12:40

psychology and money group coupon

12:42

expires tomorrow price will go up and uh

12:44

we continue to add more value and we do

12:45

those course member live streams every

12:47

day the market is open quite frankly

12:49

with the exception of uh days when when

12:51

I'm traveling on the East Coast like

12:53

today because I got to get to the

12:54

airport I'm already late for my own

12:56

flight I got to get to Toronto and get

12:58

through C so thank you for being here

13:00

I'll see youall soon I love you all

13:02

thank you goodbye says Made 4K let's go

13:04

congratulations good job Kevin I just

13:06

ripped 20K from that trade thank you

13:09

congratulations holy crap uh I made 50k

13:13

thank you Kevin holy dude yes this

13:17

is like the best day

13:20

ever uh damn 6K on that Tesla trade

13:24

thanks so much

13:25

congratulations holy smokes good job

13:28

y'all

13:29

uh good good good good job 5K thanks to

13:32

Kevin holy SP up

13:35

$44,000 holy

13:38

crap good job somebody here says I made

13:42

$25 good job uh I made a 100 I'm at 100K

13:46

no way Big Rob holy crap how dare you be

13:49

human yeah I made 9k on that trade made

13:51

a 7K profit I made $773,000

13:55

11k trade here made 20K holy

14:00

oh I'm so happy this is so cool

14:02

congratulations everyone that is so

14:04

freaking fun um

14:08

26k uh 10K 11k on that Tesla call made

14:11

2K on the call made 10K 8600 made 30k uh

14:16

I made 3K made 22k made 20K 6K over here

14:20

2K over here holy smokes up 20K bagged

14:24

4K made 7K

14:27

$250,000 Kyle holy crap 227 Anthony oh

14:31

my gosh y'all had like half the position

14:34

I had you guys got

14:38

balls um made 30k on that trade damn

14:42

this is amazing congratulations y'all uh

14:45

you went you went to the uh five oh you

14:48

were on the five you stayed on the 53

14:51

calls you dirty good job

14:55

congratulations uh bro you just made me

14:57

$100,000 oh my

15:00

God I think I need to go take a

15:04

vacation 22k profit 405k 16k oh my God

15:10

somebody said no you didn't stop it

15:12

somebody says I made 5.5 million off no

15:14

you didn't stop uh made 9k made 4K 5K

15:19

made

15:20

5K wow wow this is amazing good job

15:24

y'all I gez Lord it's almost 69k

15:27

somebody says I made 1.2 million on it

15:29

oh my God

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