PREPARE for the Fed Minutes TODAY.

okay quick preview on the FED minutes

that are coming out at 2 p.m Eastern 11

A.M Pacific time today these are going

to be a massive deal because these are

going to be the minutes from literally

during the banking crisis so March 22nd

was the meeting the Federal Reserve

usually makes their decision on interest

rate increases about two weeks prior to

their fed meeting so in other words the

FED might be making their decision today

for whether or not we're going to get

that 25 basis point hike

in May at the beginning of May May 2nd I

believe that we will now I believe that

we will because I think it would be a

good that the Federal Reserve ends up

going for a five percent terminal rate

psychologically would be good for

anchoring inflation uh and keep in mind

that meeting starts on the second the

actual announcement will be on the third

so I just want to clarify that so I do

think the FED will end up going 425 BP

and we'll probably see the market

continue to price in a slight tilt tow

towards that 25 BP but anyway these

minutes will show us how the Federal

Reserve balanced inflation and the

banking collapses of Silicon Valley Bank

Signature Bank and the other banks that

collapsed as well and the drama going on

with the Regionals uh potential for a

bank run how they responded so what to

expect here's an outline of uh what to

expect now first officials uh comparing

scenarios for should they keep hiking

what about quantitative tightening how

do the new liquidity facilities affect

quantitative tightening is it possible

that as the FED balance sheet goes up

they can keep raising interest rates I

mean aren't those counter-intuitive to

essentially on one hand be printing

money and on the other hand be raising

rates we expect today in those minutes

to see the evaluation of how they came

to the decision to make sure to keep

fighting inflation and one of the things

that I'm going to be looking for in a

minute or you know let's make a list of

things that we're going to be looking

for in a minute so the first thing that

I would be looking for in the minutes is

going to be economic strength that's

probably one of the most important

things in the market right now is we

want to see that the economy still has

strength the Atlanta real now GDP

forecaster shows that we're still above

two percent for real GDP the FED expects

GDP to fall as low as 0.4 by the end of

the year by the last summary of economic

projections what went into that what

data went into their projection that GDP

is going to fall to point four percent

by the end of the year and I want to see

in the minutes what contributed to their

fear that GDP was falling and they

believed that we could still hold GDP

positive so the first thing I would

write this down to prepare for the

minutes number one write down economic

strength that is probably going to be

one of the most important takeaways from

this next minutes report forget whether

we're going to get 25 or not 25 or not

is going to be a fart compared to

whether or not we go into a recession

whether or not we go into a recession

that's going to be the big deal and so

focus on economic strength in these

minutes number two obviously any kind of

hints uh for getting to a terminal rate

and further banking stress and event

number three I'm going to write down

their analysis of the credit crunch I

would expect something like look we've

already seen a credit crunch are we

seeing any accelerating of a credit

crunch the fourth thing I'm going to be

looking for is any kind of housing

indicators that they're seeing obviously

we've seen extremely tight Supply which

has led housing prices to actually start

trending up again despite interest rates

remaining relatively high so focus on

those here uh then the fifth thing and

the last thing that I would focus on in

the minutes is any kind of commentary on

how quickly they want to get inflation

down so the timing of inflation down and

so those are going to be we're going to

be looking for words like average

opportunistic uh flexible any kind of

average well we already said average two

percent right uh Flex a fate if we get

any reference to fade it would be a game

changer I suppose a sixth thing that I

would be looking for would be also any

kind of suggestions on the timing of uh

Services disinflation when do they need

to see Services disinflation remember

super core today came in at point four

percent for super core inflation super

core CPI uh and uh and maybe the timing

of housing disinflation because even

though we expect to see housing

disinflation we just went from 0.8 to

0.6 which is great but it's still hot

when are we really going to see that

roll off uh JP Morgan believes we're

going to see that roll off somewhere

around June or July we're sitting just

now in getting the March data so maybe

we're still three months away from

getting that housing disinflation can

the FED reiterate that three-month away

housing disinflation what about Services

disinflation if we're at four point four

percent super core right now that's 4.8

percent annualized 4.8 annualized is

obviously way too high and if we're at

4.8 percent annualized when is that

going to come down how patient is the

Fed willing to be does the FED think if

they can pause at five percent will CPI

super core come down remember super core

is really those Services X housing I do

not believe and I'm going to write this

down as number nine this is going to be

the uh start stop

a lot of people think that the Federal

Reserve could just pause now and then

pick it up again in fact one of the new

fed board members Mr gouldsby which when

you write it it's really funny but I

feel bad for them but when you write

Goolsby the autocorrect changes it to

foolsby

and he wrote or or said in an interview

yesterday prudence and patience to

assess tighter conditions uh what would

be wise and he suggested holding on

further rate hikes until they have more

information but that suggests the start

stop method

I don't think they're going to go for

start stop the reason I don't think

they're going to go for or stop start

stop start again is because that's the

mistake they made in the 70s during

Aaron Burr uh and his Federal Reserve

governorship what the Federal Reserve

did is they

raised rates and then they saw the

economy slow and then they paused and

cut rates and then inflation reanimated

and then they raised rates again and

they basically kept trying to adjust the

temperature of the stove without

considering the lag time that it takes

for the heat to actually get to the food

and then they kept overcooking the food

and undercooking the food over cooking

undercutting and it's like stop touching

the damn dial just set it and forget it

and then and then cook with that

uh and so the reason that's a problem is

when you have that method is people

watch you cooking at the stove and

they're like you've lost your marbles

you don't know what you're doing you

have no control over what's going on and

when people believe that the Federal

Reserve has lost control which believe

me plenty of people already believe the

Federal Reserve has lost control and

that they're not jobs I get it okay

there are plenty of people who ate the

vet and I don't want to come across as a

fat apologist because I agree I think

they've made some mistakes but I think

they could still end up being right on

transitory inflation which is fantastic

or would be fantastic for the Nike

Swoosh recovery which is obviously

something we're making a bet on putting

our money where our mouth is but what I

really want to focus on here is saying

that the fed's not going to repeat that

so I really doubt we're going to get any

kind of like pause and then restart If

the Fed pauses

they're done I want you to write write

that down hold me to that if the FED

pauses they are done this tightening

cycle is over if that pause occurs now

what I will say is uh the five-year

break-even rate is still a little on the

high side I'd like to see this come down

substantially I'm going to show that on

screen here in just a moment let me pull

that up do keep in mind today is a

coupon expiration day prices will be

going up for those programs on building

growth today email us for a bundle

coupon code at kevin.com if you'd like

to bundle up so what do we have right

here well what we have is the five year

Break Even chart this goes all the way

back to the beginning of 2022. let me

also go back to the five year but look

at where we sit unfortunately we still

have some work to do here we really want

to see in order to see rate Cuts we

would love to see this get down to about

1.6 percent uh and while we've got a

nice a rough downtrend the downtrend was

a lot better right here we broke that

downtrend because of the January data

this downtrend was broken now we've got

kind of a a crappier trend so to speak

if we could get back down to Trend we'd

be over here at 2.15 hopefully we Trend

down to this level and inflation break

evens are so important because they're

really a way of the FED saying hey uh

you know as long as inflation

expectations are anchored we're okay we

don't have to keep raising rates uh and

that's good but as soon as this really

breaks out which it really started to

going into the banking crisis you end up

having problems now in order to go if

you go back to 2018 you'll see that we

actually have to get this right chart

all the way down to about 1.6 to iterate

fed Cuts so that does indicate we still

have some work to do with the Federal

Reserve we'll see we'll be getting those

minutes today I'm excited to see what

happens uh so we'll see somebody here

just donated 4.99 to talk about the zero

percent mortgage with zero percent down

it's only for 2500 people it's classic

California clickbait 2500 people that's

it and then the program's out of money

yes it's a good program program yes I've

already gone through it yes I've already

talked about it for 2500 people there's

not a lot of people so it's not really

worth talking about anyway with that

said thank you so much for watching I've

got to get ready for the course member

live stream remember you get lifetime

access to all of the course member live

streams if you join the programs linked

down below not only do you get lifetime

access to all of the programs uh when

when either of the programs you buy you

get all the access to all the content

within them uh and uh lifetime access to

the live streams you uh anytime we add

new content you get that for free my

goal is to really provide more value and

I'm convinced that if you go through the

lectures that are in any of the courses

stocks and psych zero to millionaire

real estate investing do-it-yourself

Property Management real estate agent

sales YouTube content creation you're

going to learn a perspective that nobody

else has talked about before people like

to make this argument oh I could Google

the information you can't a because it's

my perspective and my theory on on how

to advance in any of these worlds uh and

B even if you could you wouldn't even

know what to Google and so that's what's

so beautiful about these courses puts

everything in order for you of exactly

how to build perspective learn

everything that I do on the perspectives

that I have for various different

Industries and I encourage you to check

that out link down below so thank you so

much for being here wish you all the

best and I pray that the Nike Swoosh

holds so we can continue on our path to

recovery today CPI data was fantastic

let's hope that the minutes continue to

reiterate that and we'll see you in the

course member live stream in a few

minutes thanks so much goodbye and good

luck