The Fed is About to Repeat a Dangerous Mistake.

hey everyone me Kevin here in this video

we're going to discuss the Federal

Reserves a great reset we are going to

discuss a 1970s inflation versus today

how is it similar and how is it

different are we bound to repeat the

same triple wave of inflation that will

end up destroying our economy and

potentially even the US

dollar what about the housing crisis

today how does it compare to the last

time we ended our three waves of

inflation in

1981 and how is that different from

2008 we'll also touch on the banking

crisis and the certainty of the

recession as predicted by the 10-year

yield curve as well as the real danger

coming up happy Cyber Monday let's get

started first with data released today

it is clear Americans are starting to

suffer again average credit card

utilization a among 30-day plus

delinquent categories based on household

incomes now above levels that we saw

before the pandemic we could see in the

25 to $50,000 income threshold we are

above previous levels in other words

those who are falling behind are falling

behind even worse than they were falling

behind before the pandemic despite all

of the money printing that has occurred

for the 50 to 75 middle class tier same

thing for the under 25,000 tier also

same thing virtually new highs for the

75 to $100,000 tier and the six figure

club we also have new highs in other

words more debt utilization

on delinquent accounts and that's by

every single income threshold here we

could see net charge offs and those

30-day delinquencies also higher than

their priv previous Peaks Total Money

Market funds sometimes seen as a signal

of fear by investors after all if

investors thought that everything was

going to be just fine the benefit of a

5% yield in a money market would be

substantially outweighed by the gains

you could receive investing in bonds or

stocks or real estate so at a 5% yield

this skyrocketing of money market

funding is a sign of sideline ISM in

other words people are fearful and

they're not certain that they're going

to get a better deal in stocks real

estate or bonds even though some of them

are at quite depressed levels and so

they're sitting on the sidelines a lot

of that could have to do with inflation

expectations after all look at what's

happened with prices here we can see

that rents across the United States are

up

28% since 2020 so basically since before

the pandemic rents have skyrocketed

since then mortgage rates now sitting at

8% substantially higher than the below

3% we had before the pandemic yet for

some reason home values while they

dipped going into the end of 22 have

broadly started to recover again very

strange all the while chicken dishes are

up 32% burgers are up 23% pizza's up

177% pasta and noodles up

14% look at this savings across all

incomes obviously uneven the top 10 or

the top 1% rather had the largest gains

of 32% savings increases during the

pandemic in other words the pandemic

itely made the rich richer and these

pandemic savings are certainly starting

to WAN away but that's not changing the

fact that we're seeing the defaults

across all income levels that we talked

about at the beginning of the video

which is strange because if we really

had that much more money we should have

less stress not more we're actually

seeing more stress and so that's now

leading folks to wonder about this chart

this chart right here is a graph of

consumer price

and in early 1970 1969 1970 we saw

inflation Skyrocket only for it to

continue skyrocketing in 1974 and five

only for it to continue skyrocketing

even higher into 1980 leading a lot of

folks to say this right here this postco

Spike of inflation is just the first

wave and we're about to experience three

total waves and with three waves of

inflation people expect housing will

crash after all here is a reventure

Consulting chart showing mortgage

applications to buy a house the lowest

level since

1994 and the income needed to actually

afford to buy a home today sitting at

$111,000 you need to be a six-figure

earner just to be able to buy a median

income house an average house and so in

this video we have to start reconciling

what does all of this mean are we

screwed what's going to happen and what

are the biggest risk factors that could

really destroy the economy making us say

you know what maybe we don't want to buy

bonds yet because maybe yields will go

even higher maybe we don't want to buy

stocks yet because if yields go higher

then stocks will go down and maybe we

don't want to buy real estate yet

because well real estate crashed in 2008

right so couldn't that happen again well

we have some historical context because

we don't want to play the this time is

different card in fact what we want to

do is learn from the mistakes of history

and make sure we don't repeat the same

mistakes before we hit the answers

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meetkevin.com to learn more so are we

returning to the early 70s style of

inflation that will lead us to complete

disaster and getting absolutely reset by

the Federal Reserve just like

chairperson vulker had to do in 1980 and

1982 leading to a massive spike in

unemployment which we'll talk about

later well folks

here is some very important background

that we need to know the first Spike of

inflation that we saw in America

occurred in late

1969 take a look at this chart I really

want you to pay attention to this left

side right here you could really start

seeing in about 69 68 69 that's when

inflation really started to take off so

I want you to observe

6970 lot of inflation okay then we've

got over here all of a sudden inflation

comes down but it shoots up again why is

that why did it go down and why did it

shoot up again and what lessons can we

learn from there to avoid making those

same mistakes well let's understand what

happened around that time on August 15th

1970 to combat some of that higher

inflation we started seeing at the end

of the

1960s thanks in part due to the Vietnam

War President Nixon decided to pass and

implement the economic stabilization act

for the next year

1971 that was also the same year the

United States left the gold standard and

in that 1971 stabilization Act Nixon

sought the power to issue an executive

order on November 13th 1971 and what he

said is that's it nobody is allowed to

raise prices anymore on wages rents

salaries or any prices nothing was

allowed to go up phase one was referred

to as the Nixon shock where basically we

froze all prices in place for 90 days

those were really stringent price

ceilings that prevented inflation from

continuing to go up by law so by law we

prevented pricing from going up which

that's really interesting because if we

go back to the CPI chart here it makes

sense then if in

1971 sort of this area over here we

started implementing price limitations

or Price freezes that we would see

inflation come down this chart isn't

exactly perfect so we could have seen

the implementation somewhere around here

as well so what happens after we have

the implementation of price controls

well you might remember from high school

that anytime you say hey we want to

implement price controls and in this

case we want to implement a price

ceiling then what we actually do is we

say we're going to limit

prices right here but unfortunately the

quantity that ends up being supplied at

those lower prices is less so we end up

with a shortage at these lower prices

the quantity that we're demanding is

here but the quantity that's supplied is

here so right here we end up facing

shortages and that's exactly what

happened in the early 1970s we Face

substantial shortages for goods and

services that individuals wanted which

actually really just fueled the pressure

cooker and ended up making price

inflation worse as soon as the price

controls started to be removed can't

have price controls forever certainly

not at least in a capitalistic economy

and look at what some of the next phases

were in Nick plan and then let's look

back at the inflation chart after the

Nixon shock Nixon pulled back all of the

freezes and instead went for some more

structured price controls in other words

will allow certain items to go up a

certain percentage because there were

too many shortages for regular goods and

services certainly had an oil price

shock as well but that came in 1974

which just made the pain of just not

having enough even worse was actually

eerily similar to what we saw during

covid where at first we didn't have

enough toilet paper and then we didn't

have enough chips and I'm not talking

duritos either I'm talking chips to go

into washing machines and cars and

computers massive chip shortages much

like what we saw in the early 70s except

the difference being today we didn't

Implement price controls so prices

naturally Rose as there were massive

shortages back then Nixon said no way we

won't allow those sort of price

increases well unfortunately as they

moved from Phase 2 to three and they

became more flexible with the price

limitations and the Authority for the

economic stabilization act which was

useful for the time it was in existence

expired well then we started going back

to the free market and boy the free

market does not like price controls so

you'll notice with a massive surge of

inflation as Nixon's price controls

started getting pulled back and were

eventually eliminated except this time

instead of having a peak of about 6%

inflation we actually ended up with a

peak of nearly

125% inflation substantially worse than

the first time around this all the while

we just left the gold standard which

sent a massive signal to Americans that

said hey you know what prices are not

only going to go up but now your money

is not even backed by gold so just have

faith I guess and so the faith that you

were supposed to have in Fiat was based

entirely on Rising prices as price

controlled were removed it didn't help

that Arthur Burns was more concerned

with what politicians wanted than what

was good for the economy this is why the

Federal Reserve today demands that they

be independent from politicians of

course many people are going to Ru their

eyes at that and say yeah right they're

independent we'll see them come out

swinging for the election entirely

possible it could also be a coincidence

in fact Mr Arthur Burns mismanaged

Federal Reserve policy so badly that he

sent the message to Americans that while

they felt inflation was getting worse

and their dollar was becoming worth less

especially since it was no longer backed

by gold he thought it was a good idea to

raise rates then lower rates then raise

rates then lower lower then raise then

pause then raise then pause then raise

then pause then raise then pause then

lower then raise then raise then raise

then lower then pause as you can see

there was really no consistency or

leading effort by the FED to actually

drive any kind of narrative of what

Americans should come to expect this in

hindsight became known as one of the

greatest failures of Federal Reserve

monetary policies in fact here on the

federalreserve.gov webbsite you could

see here the FED inadvertently committed

a technical error by implementing an

interest policy rule in which nominal

interest rates removed less than

expected inflation in other words the

FED didn't shoot ahead of the Running

Deer the Fed was constantly chasing the

deer and not catching up to the deer of

inflation it's pretty important that we

talk about how today compares to the 70s

and after we talk about how today

compares to the 70s with regard to

inflation we're going to compare how we

might end up in a recession just like we

did in 81 what that did to real estate

prices and what that might do to the

banking sector first quick shout out to

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building your wealth at meetkevin.com

this is a chart of current levels of

inflation in the United States as you

could see housing is starting to roll

over in fact a lot of folks think that

housing which has been so freaking slow

to be measured by the bizarre way the

government measures housing prices which

is via owner equivalent rents which is

kind of maddening and super delayed

sometimes by 18 months housing could end

up helping drive us into deflation even

as some of these potentially start

popping up again it's not just our

inflation reads though which some people

called CP lie it's also deflation in the

Euro Zone especially in Germany in fact

the Euro Zone may be in outright

recession with the latest GDP reads

coming in at negative.

one%

ne4 to 12% producer price indices in uh

uh Germany as well as

negative PP and Manufacturing price

rates in China with the idea that these

large manufacturing nations may actually

end up exporting deflation to us

exporting deflation is just a fancy way

of saying oh sure uh you can buy your

stuff in America for substantially more

money or you could have it manufactured

in Germany or Bulgaria or China or

anywhere else for substantially less and

of course since we're in a capitalistic

economy most business businesses will

choose to manufacture things where it is

cheapest not necessarily where it is

American now when we look at core CPI

and this of course over a trend from a

year ago we can see here core cepi

coming down nicely core Services X

housing coming down nicely and even

though these are very very volatile on a

month-over-month basis when we look at

3month moving averages for these on a

month-over-month basis we see almost all

of these SE numbers trending down nicely

these positive inflation reads

especially over the last few months have

helped us finally feel like maybe we've

hit Peak treasury yields which basically

hit about 5% as Bill Amman and his

fellow hedge fund managers decided to

short the heck out of the treasuries

market which remember when you short

treasuries prices go down and then

yields go up the reason you think yields

would go up and you would sell or short

treasuries is because you think the

fed's going to go higher for longer but

the Federal Reserve has recently

u-turned in their tune of what direction

they might actually want to go and

that's probably because of what happened

in

1982 and that flip from the Federal

Reserve is probably because of what

happened in

1982 which is a big oopsy dupsies

consider though first for a moment what

the Federal Reserve just said the right

way to think about it is what's

potential growth this year TR people

think Trend growth over a long period of

time is a little bit less than 2% or I

would say just around 2% but um what

we've had is with with the you know

Improvement in the size of the labor

force as I mentioned through both

participation and uh immigration and

with the the you know the better

functioning in the labor market and with

with h you know the unwinding of the

supply chain and shortages and those

kinds of things you're seeing actually

elevated potential growth there's

catchup growth that can happen in

potential and that means that if you're

grow you could be growing at 2% this

year and still be glowing growing below

the increase in the potential output of

the economy that I hope that's clear

that's really what's going on that's

that's why I would say it as potential

but if

you did you catch that the Federal

Reserve for a very long time for years

has said hey wait a minute you know if

the economy is going to grow at 2%

we just want the economy to grow a

little bit under that so we don't create

inflation but wait a minute now Jerome

Powell has walked that back because that

might imply you have to do a lot more to

press the economy below that now Jerome

Powell is saying well you know if the

economy on under normal interest rates

could grow here you know we just want it

to be a little bit less than that it

doesn't actually have to be below Trend

it just has to be below potential so as

long as our rates are working a bit

we're good this is actually a massive

U-turn it's a U-turn that's inspired by

inflation Trends coming down possibly

driven by the desire not to mess up the

second part of the Dual mandate which is

this chart you're about to get explained

by me but the FED has many tools for not

going too far what one of those tools is

by stopping no longer raising rates

anymore and that's essentially what

Jerome Powell has implied here that

they're done the second thing that they

can do is they can be a little bit more

patient with regard to inflation this

would be called opportunistic

disinflation in other words the same

policy that we used from

1981 to now as you can see as interest

rates normalized down that same policy

could be used now to slowly lower rates

as inflation goes down and not super

prioritize inflation anymore and instead

prioritize jobs but why would the FED be

motivated to prioritize jobs after all

their mandate is a dual mandate one of

stable prices and maximum employment

well what happened 18 months after the

Federal Reserve raised rates at Peak

which they just did this summer what

happened 18 months later in other words

around the end of

2024 the unemployment rate

skyrocketed that is exactly what the

Federal Reserve is trying to avoid see

the Federal Reserve isn't only trying to

avoid the mistakes of someone like

Arthur Burns remember Arthur Burns made

a big mistake Arthur made the mistake of

start stop he made the mistake of

breaking people's infl

expectations to the upside people came

not to trust the Federal Reserve they

had no trust for the Federal Reserve and

they believe that inflation would

continue to go up because why wouldn't

it it has been for the last 10 years as

of say 77 it's been going up for 10

years why would it not continue to go up

and it wasn't until Paul vulker came to

put the pants back on so to speak and

say listen you must trust us we will

break this economy we are going to go up

until you believe us and you start

thinking inflation's coming down which

actually started happening in 82 83 and

' 84 the Federal Reserve including Paul

vulker remarked ohuh people's inflation

expectations are going down this is

fantastic news the problem though is the

Fed doesn't only want to avoid problem

one which is high inflation expectations

and a lack of trust which they already

screwed up with the whole inflationist

transitory thing so they're starting off

a bad foot right not only do they want

to avoid this but they also want to

avoid problem number two which is this

18mon lag in employment all of a sudden

destroying our economy potentially right

around the time conveniently of the

election we've already started to see

our jobs reports indicate that we are in

a late stage cycle a late stage cycle is

where most of the jobs that are created

are created by the government we've

we've already started seeing that the

government in healthcare taking a

disproportionate share of new jobs why

is that a risk because it means uhoh we

could be six months into massive

unemployment I write it as UI it's

unemployment insurance that's the

nickname we give for unemployment we

could be six months in so in other words

in a year from now solely because of the

work the FED did in the last year and a

half could come back to bite us and so

because inflation is trending down the

FED has to start pulling back on their

pressure on inflation alone while

pretending to act like ah we're still

going for 2% they're slowly starting to

soften their stance and flip flop

because they don't want to make the

second mistake and cause massive and

unnecessary unemployment because as

Jerome Powell himself says that causes

unnecessary human suffering and that is

not what the Federal Reserve wants to

cause so what does that mean for real

estate and where are we today by the way

with inflation break evens and what

about the banking crisis where do we sit

with all of these numbers as well as the

inverted yield curve well the cool thing

about the inverted yield curve is it

does usually predict a recession anytime

we get under this roughly white dotted

line here we tend to have a recession

and you'll notice that the last time we

inverted this deeply which you see how

deeply we inverted here was back in the

early ' 80s so the FED wants to avoid

this pain so far they're on the

trajectory of creating just that pain

now some people say this curve is messed

up like this because inflation

expectations and inflation itself is so

high now or has been so high now and was

so high back then so it makes sense that

in the short term you need a higher

yield on a short-term Bond then you need

a long-term Bond other people say

explain it how you want this says a

recession's coming and joblessness is

coming and I think the Bears might be

right here and Jerome pow though knows

that and he knows that that unemployment

is coming so when we had unemployment in

the early 80s what ended up happening to

the housing market did the housing

market end up substantially crashing as

the Fed was dealing with inflation well

here is a chart of year-over-year home

prices and what we found with

year-over-year home prices is that they

did go

negative by about 1 a 12% for a slight

blip in approximately

1982 in conjunction with the heavy

levels of unemployment that we faced now

we don't yet have those levels of

unemployment so the housing market has

been relatively stable in fact we're

still positive in terms of price

appreciation this is a change

year-over-year chart so anything above

this means prices are still going up of

course they're going up at a slower rate

but they're still going up unlike the

price deflation we saw where prices fell

30 to 40% in uh between 2007 and 2011

2012 where some markets bottomed so

interestingly perhaps today is not

different at all from the early 80s

perhaps today the next thing that's

going to happen is quite frankly little

for the housing market but the next big

problem is actually unemployment see

maybe this time isn't different at all

we're actually in the same exact path

see people say well Kevin why wouldn't

this be a 2008 well because back in the

early 80s and today people had stable

mortgages that they could afford they

didn't have the interest rate interest

only ninja loans and deadbeat loans that

they had in 2008 in 2008 not only did

you have deadbeat loans but you were

paid to walk away by short sale lenders

who didn't want to go through a

foreclosure process so they'd pay you

$10 to $220,000 just to leave your house

and sell it and eradicate all the other

debt that you had but today just like in

the early

80s we have way more Equity we have

stable 30-year fixed rate financing and

we have less of a desire for people to

move because rates are so high so we

actually don't get price discovery which

if we look at what's recently been

happening with pricing by looking at a

4-we moving average we'd actually see

the orange line here is

2023 we can actually see this is the

months of Supply chart in the months of

Supply chart here we're roughly in line

with the supply months of Supply that we

had in

2022 obviously that Trends up in the

winter season that's generally normal 21

we stayed a little below Trend there

there was such a shortage prices are

actually now slightly above what they

were last year that white line there

represents 2022 the blue represents how

much above last year we are now don't

get me wrong prices did correct

especially in some of the uh short-term

rental heavy and covid heavy markets we

definitely Nationwide saw prices go from

about a Peak in May of 2022 down to a

low nearly a 15% correction across the

entire country in December of 2022 and

that's actually been even worse for new

home developers now I'll explain new

home developers in a moment but think

about that for a moment if we are really

no different than the 80s then it makes

sense maybe that really we just see a

volume collapse of real estate rather

than a massive price collapse for resale

real estate at the same time the biggest

concern that the Federal Reserve should

have going forward would be unemployment

and not inflation unless of course

inflation starts rearing its head again

but so far it doesn't look like it is

knock on W that it

doesn't what about new construction

homes though well new construction homes

are a little bit manipulative in that

most new construction

homes buyers don't actually pay the

prices that are listed that the homes

sell for usually these prices are

propped up by building incentives for

example a new construction home builder

might say hey pay $480,000 in this house

for this house we'll give you $50,000 of

upgrades you know worth 40 let's say for

flooring countertops cabinets whatever

so buyer's really paying like 440 that

would be just a quick example recently

though those sticker prices even

including those upgrades haven't been as

attractive for home buyers to actually

buy new construction builds with and so

we have started to see those sticker

prices come down actually quite a bit if

you look on the left side of this chart

you can see we hit a high of nearly

$500,000 and that level has now come

down now we're sitting just around

$415,000 that represents a good 15 plus

per discount on new construction

properties compared to exactly their

Peak that's probably a

normalization of ah these incentives of

stuff aren't working anymore we actually

have to lower the price but it's

definitely still a red flag to pay

attention to because if new construction

home prices come down they could also

Drive non- new construction or resale

prices down and this makes sense because

after all if you have more new

construction homes continuing to be

built and they're sold at lower prices

why buy an older home when you could

just buy a newer home at potentially

cheaper price so this is definitely a

red flag but it's unclear if that is

going to be anything like 2008 or

1981 now a few extra things before we

get to our conclusion first it's very

common for folks on Twitter to say

things like this the music is about to

stop if you stay at the ball too late

everything may turn into pumpkin and

mice basically quote tweeting a photo

here of us household cumulative ex

savings uh or excess savings rather

going all the way down and trending down

to about zero probably by April

2024 the problem with this post is it

forgets that cumulative excess savings

before the pandemic were also zero and

the party hadn't started in fact the

party was still going so I personally

don't find this too useful just like I

don't find this too useful here's a

self-proclaimed PhD who says the Federal

Reserve is just making up policy as they

go go which is really rich because the

fed's literally been saying that four

years this isn't a surprise they've just

been saying look when the data comes in

we'll make a decision but anyway because

of that they suggest that the Federal

Reserve created this Hydra and they

don't know how to kill the bank term

funding program it's worth remembering

that the banking facility that the

Federal Reserve has has about $11

billion in it $11 billion might sound

like a lot but when we compare that to

the entire scope of the banking system

which is about2 trillion in size the

bank term funding program is super

nominal and probably not relevant in

whether or not we should be fearful of

what's to come so how do we draw

conclusions

for so how do we draw conclusions from

this and what should we do well let's

write those out so first of all we must

consider that unless inflation pops up

again the Federal Reserve is probably

done let's just call it the FED is done

raising rates the pause is in the FED

had their last rate hike this summer and

that starts an 18mon clock to where in

1982 we caused massive unemployment

which means the 12 month let's write

that down the 12 month clock is

ticking now the question is will the

Federal Reserve respect that the clock

is ticking so far markets believe that

the Federal Reserve will cut rates by

about 9/10 of a percent by December of

2024 if they do that could be supportive

to some interest rate sensitive sectors

like cars or solar or otherwise but if

this clock is truly tricky if this this

clock is truly ticking then the reality

is the Federal Reserve might have to cut

rates by a lot more than .9% in fact the

Federal Reserve might have to cut rates

by as much as

2.9% we'll call it 3% hopefully as

inflation goes down the Federal Reserve

is able to do this to prevent large

layoffs from really destroying the

economy because even though we can have

fluctuations in home builder prices

between let's say May and November of

the next year uh that is perfectly

drawing lines from top to bottom the

reality is housing is driven by

employment and if we can avoid an

unemployment recession like we had in

2008 or we can avoid the unemployment

recession like we had in 82 where prices

barely came down if we could just avoid

an unemployment recession of either of

those scenarios there's a good chance

housing prices might actually start

trending up again rather than down down

in 2024 especially as yields start

coming down now some do argue that as

rates go down inventory will go up and

we'll have more price Discovery and

therefore prices will come down so

there's a risk factor there as well but

if the Federal Reserve does prioritize

unemployment many are fearful that the

Federal Reserve will end up

inducing more

inflation the reason people believe this

is because our economy was so strong in

2021 one that a lot of folks thought oh

my gosh this is great the economy is

killing it and then we got inflation so

we almost trained people with recent

history to believe that a strong economy

equals inflation but the reality is

we've had a relatively strong economy

since 1982 and we've been facing

disinflation sure there have been booms

and busts like in 87 but we bottomed out

way higher than where we were in ' 82

bubble 08 covid recession it's worth

remembering that a strong economy does

not equal inflation that we can have a

strong capitalistic economy without

inflation and the reason that exists is

because the Federal Reserve is actually

constantly fighting deflation see

capitalism reduces prices it makes

things more competitive like the

delicious prices we now have on that

Cyber Monday sale at meetkevin.com

but the Federal Reserve doesn't want

deflation because that makes it harder

for people to want to take on debt

because the debt becomes more expensive

to pay off so the FED prints money to

induce a slight bit of inflation to

encourage you to spend and encourage the

economy to keep growing and help you pay

off your debt easier as hopefully you

earn more while your debt stays the same

as a result the Federal Reserve really

hates deflation even worse than they

hate inflation and this could end up

leading to the money printers coming

right back on conveniently around the

time of the election and I strongly

believe this election won't be decided

by how people feel today it'll be

decided by how people feel in a year

from now thanks so much for watching if

you like this style of presenting leave

me a comment down below if you didn't

like it leave me a comment we'll see you

in the next one bye