"Out of Control!" Trump, Elon Musk, and DOGE

well Trump will go to the Super Bowl an

executive order may be coming to end the

Department of Education the Mexican and

Canadian tariffs were a big fugazi for

about the first hour that the market was

open yesterday and then of course even

uh Canada came to an agreement with the

United States after Mexico came to an

agreement with the United States now

sure the tariffs are only delayed for 30

days and they could come back but let's

be real this was all part of the art of

the deal or as some people are now

calling the farce of the deal that is we

had a whole lot of bullying and bark

with very little bite but then again

Donald Trump is able to argue hey now

we're getting not only our troops on the

border but we're getting 10,000 troops

on the border of Mexico on their side to

help us fight cartels we're getting

border troops on the Canadian side

because 1% of all the fentol that comes

into the United States comes in through

the Canadian border so obviously we've

got to really seal that Northern

Canadian border but is interesting

because to Donald Trump he never

actually really saw tariffs as a tool

that he would rely on longterm although

some feared that he would really like

the revenue from them a lot of people

always saw them as a negotiating tool

and I think that's exactly what Donald

Trump got now there were hopes from

people that Donald Trump's tariffs would

end up leading to so much revenue for

the United States that maybe we wouldn't

even need a federal income tax but let's

be real tariffs as we calculated

yesterday and saw through research

yesterday cost us somewh around a buck

50 for every dollar of tariffs we

collect so they're pretty dang

inefficient things that are also

inefficient and things that are just ah

you know I always want to let you know

when my opinion is coming through as

best as I can but things that piss me

off are when you have people like Joanie

ER constantly throwing stuff at Elon

Musk and Elon Musk is picking it up

hookline and sinker there is never a

question from Elon Musk about what

Joanie earns to say when Joanie says

something's bad it's bad because it

makes doge look good now don't get me

wrong I love what doge is doing and I

hate government waste just as much as an

ex person okay like let's be real about

that we're we could all agree on that we

could all have you know a coffee over

that or or yeah I don't know whatever

croissant unless those are tariffed over

that but the point is this Joanie stuff

with Elon is just getting out of hand

just like the f focus of this camera man

what is this crap that's probably okay

I'm not going to say it anyway uh so

take a look at this Joanie says despite

the fact that Moroccans have been making

Pottery for thousands of years USA spent

more than $2 million for America uh

Moroccan pottery classes and promotion

Elon Musk replies to this and says good

grief with a quote

Tweet now this would make you think that

this $2 million drama was new like oh my

gosh thank goodness do is exposing this

madness and and hardworking Senators

like Joanie Ur are are pointing out the

flaws and the ways of the government

spending and after all it is true it was

spent this it was a problem in fact it

was so much of a problem that the

program was exposed by the New York

Times and many other political reporting

agencies all the way back in

2011 this Moroccan Pottery drama I

remember from back in the Obama era yeah

the Obama era that's when this drama was

happening and yes it was a mistake it

was wasteful spending it was exposed and

it was a huge embarrassment for usaid

but Joanie doesn't tell you that that is

a 14-year-old issue and Elon is eating

it hookline and sinker like this is why

we're putting USA ID in the wood chipper

okay but wait a

minute did you didn't ask her when that

happened or where the details were you

just bought it uh and she didn't offer

any of those details because it would

kind of make her look silly like are you

just Googling or like honestly I feel

like she's honestly doing something like

a chat GPT give me a hundred examples of

wasteful spending uh that the government

has has done over the last 20 years a

and then she's just tweeting out a bunch

of old crap like give me new stuff okay

like let's talk about condoms going to

Gaza oh wait even that is probably wrong

we'll talk about that in a moment but

the IMC who received that

money is is not spending the money on

condoms going to Gaza at least not $50

million of it or potentially even any of

it we'll talk about that in just a

moment but yeah again I'm not here to

say that the government spending is

right there are plenty of examples of

poopy doopy for example NOS that are

doing nothing trying to bolster climate

change in African countries why okay

they have more problems than climate

change right now uh and yet they're

receiving millions of dollars that is

real waste but now we're distracting

real waste and conflating real waste

with old news that's been dealt with 15

years ago and it just hurts Elon musk's

credibility and it hurts Joan's

credibility so like there are a few ways

you could look at this one is you're

somebody who's going oh Kevin you just

sound like a sh for your government okay

that's like the low IQ answer

okay then there's like the the like

smart person who's watching this going

yeah I mean like it's still not good

that the government wasted that money

Kevin and I'm like I agree it's some

bull crap like Moroccan pottery classes

$2 million is stupid right absolutely

but I mean it does weaken their

credibility if it's so hard for them to

find waste that they're having to go

back 14 years and they're probably using

CH GP to help them it just makes them

look weaker at what they're supposed to

to be doing which is finding current

waste that we could actually save money

on see I am so in support of what Elon

is trying to do with do that I don't

want them to look like clowns and

fail and this is clownish and I think

smarter people look at that and go yeah

you know they shouldn't be using the old

stuff maybe they should be a little bit

more critical and double check things

first now I want to really talk about

jolts and China tariffs and what's going

on with the FED B out and all this good

stuff but since we're on the topic I may

as well just quickly hit USA ID look

really quick primer okay JFK founded

usaid in the Cold War they did this to

counter Russian propaganda this is

really simple you go into broke areas

and you help American farmers by buying

their rice us made rice did you know we

grow rice Sacramento you know where the

Delta smelt is yeah we grow rice over

there okay just saying we also grow some

in Louisiana and some other places but

point is we then take that rice from our

American farmers we probably overpay for

it which is fine because it's a form of

supporting Americans which I'm all for

then we slap a giant us logo on it we

send it to Africa and it's it's it's

part of a a US Government propaganda

campaign I'm not saying this is how

money should be spent I'm just saying

what I'm solely going through what the

point of the program is see look saxs of

rice with us Aid on it okay it's all

part of the psychological manipulation

again I'm not saying it's necessary or

how effective it is I don't I don't know

uh but anyway you do get some crazy

things which are indeed egregious and

this is the stuff we should be pointing

out like this 1.5 million doll this

activity aims to advance diversity

equity and inclusion in Serbia's

workplaces and business communities by

promoting economic empowerment and

opportunities for

lgbtqi plus people in Serbia it will

Foster an environment that increases

employment potential for

lgbtqi plus persons persons okay uh

expands opportunities for entrepreneurs

uh

lgbtqi plus entrepreneurs and reduces

workplace discrimination okay so $1.5

million for this now that's the kind of

waste we should be talking about because

this seems crazy okay sax of rice you

could sell me on that Dei in Serbia N I

don't know about that anyway all right

so uh this this quickly wrapping it up

this this 50 million a wrapping it

up I need more coffee and I need

something in this coffee $50 million in

condoms uh this is an argument that has

been made by the Trump organiz trump

Administration that uh we have sent $250

million buckets of money to Gaza to the

international medical corpse and they're

spending it on condoms first of all usid

gets condoms for like 5 cents and if

they were able to just buy condoms they

would be buying billions of condoms and

we really don't need that uh so uh

actually I think 50 million is basically

exactly 1 billion condoms and that's

that's not needed that's also been

what's reported as false uh it's just

sort of taking a quick look at what IMC

at least does IMC argues that they've

received this is their POV so it could

be biased you know maybe they don't want

to tell you about the money they're

spending on condoms I don't know just

saying their po

is that they received $68 million from

usaid to support operators in Gaza since

the War Began uh in particular they they

had two hospitals that they're running

with this money with a capacity of 250

beds 20 emergency rooms 170 surgical

departments uh facilities to provide 247

Medical Care to roughly 33,000 civilians

per month largely fueled by the US

government safe deliveries of 20 babies

per day blah blah blah okay look also

get it Americans are going to be like

yeah but bro $68 million you know that

could that could renovate some nice

hospitals here in America well I totally

agree the argument that the government

makes is that well you know when all the

bandages that they're getting over there

and the kids are getting taken care of

by us products hopefully they don't turn

into terrorists I don't know what the

ROI of that is okay that is something we

could debate but again it just goes to

show that the the deeper you dig on this

stuff P usually past what I call the

Twitter or X level uh the more it's kind

of like all right like it's not as

salacious as they say uh it's you know

like there's probably some rationale to

at least some of it not saying it's good

but I think that's why Marco Rubio is

now taking over usaid and he's saying oh

we just have a few bad apples so rather

than killing the entire program now all

of a sudden it's oh we just have a few

bad apples in subordination by some of

the people inside USA this is very

different from what Elon Musk alleged

which is that usaid is an evil and

criminal organization and it was time

for it to die and that I'm feeding it to

the wood chipper some people say he's

got like a Vengeance against usaid

because of his time growing up in South

Africa I I don't know if any of that

stuff's true I I do think that something

that is sus is like why does the BBC get

you know 2.6 billion pounds of us aid

aid I don't know maybe the BBC then's

going to write nice stories about the

United States or so I don't know that

that it to me it just screams government

propaganda but then again that's what

JFK created the damn thing for he

created it for government propaganda so

like if you were going to look at a

government propaganda

organization then you're going to expect

to find government propaganda in it then

then it makes you wonder though what

again is the ROI the return on

investment I think that's what

everybody's sort of focusing on now of

course this is leading to people like um

AOC freaking out saying that Elon is

putting 19-year-olds in the treasury

that he's morally vacant he's one of the

most unintelligent billionaires I've

ever seen other people are responding

saying you're a bartender who became a

representative and you wouldn't know

intelligence if it bit you in the never

mind so people have a lot of critical

things to say uh what I do know with

almost certainty is that there will be a

lot of lawsuits around this and I think

Elon Musk is finding younger people I I

don't have an issue with younger people

I I I remember being you know in my

early 20s and like come on like agism

sucks and I think younger people can do

some incredible things but honestly I

think elon's picking some younger folks

because he knows it's just a matter of

time until there's some kind of legal

injunction against what doge is doing

until courts can sit around for two

years and figure out what they want to

do with Doge and by then it's too late

anyway uh and so I think elon's like

yeah let's let's get as much done as we

can ASAP and treat it like a startup

because the clock is ticking not a bad

idea honestly something else that's not

a bad idea is paying attention to what's

going on with the jolts data we just hit

a 3-month low on job openings in labor

turnover 7.6 million versus the 8

expected 8.16 revised for November below

all estimates but one professional

business services pulled back finance

and insurance pulled back H hiring rate

is just at 3.4% this is the lowest in a

decade and the quits rate is just at 2%

which might explain why only 20,000

people have accepted Donald Trump's

Federal buyout so far he was targeting

100 to 200,000 people to quit from the

government and so far it's only been 20K

now that number could grow and the

hiring freeze is still in place

but it definitely suggests there's a

little bit of softness in uh in the good

old um labor market which then people

start wondering like oh does that mean

the stock market's overvalued and Howard

marks had an interesting point on this

he's like you know buying at these

values is buying at a poor valuation

however we're not at a bubble yet in

fact if you buy today you're sort of

betting on the market bubble he's

basically saying the Euphoria Is Yet To

Come ooh this sounds

delicious uh anyway China's tariffs are

like puny okay these are like the

smallest like PP tariffs I've ever seen

pricing power tis um China you know

clearly is trying to seek some sort of

Leverage against Trump they're opening

investigation into Google they've

already had an investigation going into

Nvidia for a few months now they want to

potentially launch one into Intel

because the vast majority of Intel's

Revenue comes from China these have seen

as sort of like pre- retaliatory but

they only named like 80 products worth

about $14 billion in trade and you know

we are planning on tariffing like $525

billion worth of their stuff which is

you know I mean jeez I can't even do

that math in my head it's going to be

like a lot it's like what 80 times 525

ID 14 billion oh yeah see it just it's

it's too early for this

37.4

times the amount of tariffs wow yeah so

anyway uh okay so then we've got um

paler to talk about wow so paler is an

interesting one obviously the Deep seek

moment is something that could benefit a

company like paler in fact as we've been

talking about for the last couple weeks

the commoditization of llms is a big

boost to service companies and I've

specifically mentioned companies like

paler but also Google meta Amazon and

otherwise because it makes sense like it

basically just lowers the cost of you

providing your service now yes that

could lower the barriers to entry for

other companies to come in and compete

with you but Palante here has so much

freaking cash their ability to adapt is

going to be really incredible so this is

phenomenal the problem that you really

have is the valuation of this company

right and it's been a problem for a

while except it's such a retail favorite

and nobody really cares about the

valuation that the stock just keeps

going up because people aren't selling

it and people are only buying it because

it keeps going up which is incredible

it's like congratulations this is

awesome commercial revenu is up 52%

year-over-year which is great and and

it's expected to grow 54% which is an

acceleration of growth which is

fantastic it's music to every once a

years and government revenue is even up

45% people were worried that was going

to slow down now Palante a a whole lot

more sexy than Salesforce but just think

about this for a moment Salesforce has a

net margin which means you know when

they bring in $100 their net their

bottom line is about 16.1% so they bring

$16.1 to the bottom line problem is

their revenues are only growing at like

8 to %. so a lot slower growth right

paler net margin is actually a chunk

lower at

11.2% on net that's the bottom line

that's not gross all the gross margins

at these software companies obviously

are always very very high but anyway

that's 70% lower than what you have at

Salesforce uh in terms of net margin now

they're growing yes at you know combined

with government revenues they're growing

at somewhere between they're estimated

to grow somewhere about 30% over the

next 9 years let's assume for a moment

I'm going to be generous that they're

grow at 36% over the next 9 years well

if they grew at 36% compounded for the

next 9 years they would finally reach

the revenues that Salesforce has which

is interesting because if you compare

the market capitalization of these

companies paler is trading for about 235

billion Salesforce trades for a uh

market cap of 325 billion which means

Salesforce has 9x the revenues and it

costs you let's see two 35 it cost you

38% more so 38% more money into

Salesforce for a company with 9x the

revenues and higher margins by a good

chunk net margins at least now the net

margins the reason people don't love

those is you know you look at the net

margins versus the cash flow the company

pays a lot uh paler a lot of their money

out in uh stock based comp which

obviously then when you look at adjusted

ebit is added back in but you know that

that pisses people off you can kind of

you could see it yourself here okay so

here's the revenue figure the 8 27

you've got net income of uh what is what

is this net income here

779 attributable to shareholders over

here uh actually that might even be less

than the 11% I calculated I think from

the annual figures so uh slightly on the

lower side now again the assets are

amazing I mean we're sitting on $2

billion in Cash Plus another three in

marketable 5 billion in cash is freaking

amazing you've got current liabilities

of uh a billion so whatever so you've

got 4 billion of free cash which is is

remarkable right here's the stock-based

comp which is well in excess of their

net income so when you add the

stock-based comp back into their their

net income and you sort of do some other

cash flow adjustments over here the net

cash that they're actually earning in a

year is around a billion bucks which is

really cool but you know then what you

have to also be careful of is you take a

billion dollars and divide it by 235 you

know this is this is a return on your

cash uh like cash flow divided by market

cap your return on cash here is not 1%

it's like

46% which if you go to investor

relations you can do this with any

company I'm actually a big fan of doing

this you go to like end phase I'll just

give it to you really quick you go to

end phase your return on cash right now

because the stock is fallen so much your

return on cash right now at that company

is somewhere around like 12 to 14% it's

so good now I'm not saying you should

buy M instead of paler not trying to

give you advice point is that is an

interesting metric you might consider

comparing like Tesla even has a better

return on cash than this this is an

interesting one uh but then again you

know there's no sign right now of paler

stopping this kind of keeps cranking

sure the

valuation but uh they're certainly

beating I mean they beat expectations so

you got to give it to them speaking of

expectations Donald Trump has

expectations of creating a sovereign

wealth fund now this is interesting

because usually companies with surpluses

do this see Norway has a sovereign

wealth fund of 1.7 trillion it's the

largest in the world China 1.3 trillion

Saudi Arabia 925 billion that's the one

you keep hearing about investing into

companies like

Lucid excuse me uh and then you got

Singapore at $770 billion these are

usually companies with a surplus like

they make more money or collect more

money than than they actually

spend and so then they go invest it and

the benefit of investing it is that you

potentially earn money on your

Investments and then you have to tax

even less it's it's kind of cool right

it's it's a great thing um Donald Trump

is now potentially suggesting maybe the

wealth fund could acquire Tik Tok uh and

then that way it's like pseudo

government controlled I don't know how I

feel about that government controlled

social media but then again we basically

have that oh I'm sorry I didn't mean to

do that uh anyway so uh yeah that's

interesting uh then you've got uh Elon

Musk freaking out about some people

getting exposed their identity is

getting exposed working for Doge and he

calls us a crime so we started going on

a Banning

spree whatever apparently there was even

one person who and I thought this was

kind of brilliant they made a substack

where they they wrote why Doge and you

know their author name is one of the

people whose names was leaked so if you

Googled their name it would come up and

uh in order to see the substack you had

to pay a th000 bucks uh and so if you

did and then you subscribed to the

substack you would see that it was

actually blank it's just why Doge why I

gave out my seven figure salary to save

America

and it's literally blank there's no

discussion other than some comments that

say poetically

blank very interesting now uh it's

unclear if anything other than the Cyber

truck is going to be affected by China's

tariffs but there are potentially some

downsides people say to Tesla from

elon's politics given European sales for

Tesla vehicles plummeting in January you

can see Nega 18% in the UK 63% France

Sweden 46 Denmark 40 I mean these are

low numbers though so I I don't know how

much this really matters I do think it's

interesting that whoever put this chart

together didn't include Germany in it

they're trying to highlight Europe but

they didn't include Germany in it is it

potentially because Germany is positive

year-over-year in January and that just

went against their thesis I don't know

but Germany should have been in there so

I thought that was a little weird uh El

Salvador apparently is willing to accept

some of our political prisoners or Not

Sorry necessarily political prisoners

just American criminals for a small fee

these are scary jails to be in by the

way these are like 80 to 100 person jail

celles yeah they're they're pretty bad

so you might

consider uh like looking on YouTube El

Salvador prisons like you don't want to

be sent to one of those hey might deter

some crime though uh and then the latest

micro strategy uh preferred stock option

did get a little bit of push back had to

sell for about a 20% discount to get

those preferred stock options out there

some people are wondering you know maybe

micro strategy was just shooting too

high on a potential you know future

price or uh uh you know appetite is

slowly slowing because uh slowly slowing

Bitcoin is slowing down a little bit you

know it's struggling to stay over 100k

here I know that Don Jr is really

excited about ethereum and said that

everybody should buy ethereum I think he

forgot the hashtag not personalized

Financial advice but um certainly

sounded like he was trying to give a

give a good little hint there here go

buy some ethereum kind of interesting

how politics has mingled in with finance

and now we have politicians saying

things that as a dude on YouTube who's

also a financial adviser has lots of

licenses would just not ever say but

anyway so is the world we live in so if

you find this content helpful make sure

to subscribe to the channel and V we'll

see you in the next one goodbye and good

luck do not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising in CR go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there Cal analist and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take