Warning: The Santa Claus *Fed Rug Pull*

Well, as usual, when the Federal

Reserve's repo facility starts popping

off, people get nervous about recession

fears again. So, you can see on the

right side of this chart, we've got the

repo facility popping off again towards

month end here. The same thing that we

saw in October with the highest spike in

repos since CO over here on October

31st. And the reason this is concerning

is because this facility never gets

tapped for utility in normal functioning

markets. And so at the same time as

you've got the repo market popping off

again suggesting liquidity stress, you

have people coming in saying that, hey,

the setup that we have of people

throwing 401k retirement money into

private equity is going to lead to a

massive disaster, a financial crisis

that taxpayers are going to have to bail

out. So, what I thought we'd do is why

not reconcile all of the risks that we

face for recession right now so we can

keep an eye on them and we know what

data to watch. Now, you know that you

could go to meet Kevin.com/data and you

can see my bull bear scale. My bull bear

scale right now is pointedly in the

middle. We're on the teeter totter

because of the issues that we face. Now,

that doesn't mean I'm not buying. In

fact, we were just buying the dip during

the crisis that we recently saw. And of

course, you can get all those trade

alerts and the new reinvest course at

meetc.com, Black Friday sales now, but

more on that later. Let's instead focus

on some of these recessionary catalysts

that we face. And so what we looked at

is we looked at the city research macro

think tank piece and they had some

interesting arguments here. First, they

suggest that AI investments right now

still have more room to grow and that

hopefully we could start seeing some of

these productivity gains materialize

next year. And that's what we're looking

for is a materialization of artificial

intelligence spend because we know spend

has been pretty wild on it. In fact,

it's been one of the reasons why I think

Bank of America is arguing we're seeing

some diversifying from tech. In fact,

tech indicating some of the weakest

inflows, in fact, rather net outflows.

more big tech outflows now at quote

multi-year

extremes with tech seeing the biggest

outflows for the sixth week and these

tech flows at now record lows now the

lowest level of tech flows since June of

2021

so what's going on here my assumption

some form of profit taking going on in

tech and I think it's one of the reasons

why we're seeing valuations for some of

those mag names pretty dang low right

now. I personally look at stocks like

for example Meta and I'm like my

goodness like some of these valuations

are really low. Meta's trading for a

1.25 peg. It's remarkably low right now.

And you see other institutions are

starting to talk about this as well

suggesting hey like this this seems odd.

Why all of a sudden are we seeing some

of these individual names sell so

cheaply? Here, for example, you have

Franklin and Templeton making the

argument that Nvidia smashed earnings.

Yet, Nvidia is selling for a lower PE

ratio than Walmart is. And Franklin and

Templeton is essentially making the

argument that there's this odd

indiscriminate selling happening in tech

right now. And it's unclear, is this

happening because of people's fears

regarding a potential recession, or is

this just what I call smart

diversifying? I think that people might

have become very overweight in

technology. And so what you're seeing

here, according to Bank of America, is

single stock outflows,

but large ETF inflows. So you're seeing

money go into ETFs, 3.2 billion in the

fourth week with fourth week of outflows

for sorry, fourth week of outflows at

3.2 billion for single stocks. But ETFs

saw inflows, sixth week of inflows, $4.8

8 billion in my opinion suggesting

people are building up resilience in

their portfolio, diversifying away from

some of those single stock names and

getting baskets. It's somewhat kind of

like like I had this like 1600% return

on my Nvidia position, multi-million

dollar Nvidia position, which is great,

but I over the last few weeks I've been

selling my Nvidia position. I I send out

alerts every time I sell it. You I think

my average sell was probably somewhere

around like 192 on Nvidia. I sold some

over 200, some under 200, right? Plus or

minus. And Nvidia keeps selling down

right now, which is unfortunate because

its valuation is actually low as long as

growth continues, right? As long as the

PEG ratio for Nvidia goes, it's a $300

stock if that growth ratio continues.

But people are profit taking. They're

also profit taking on Google. They're

diversifying away into other baskets.

And so we have a basket, for example, of

10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years.

we talk about in the alpha report all

the time. We just added our eighth and

I've got nine and 10 coming up likely

before the end of the year. But anyway,

I'm really going from like that one

stock concentration to 10. And I think

that's kind of what you're seeing here

in the Bank of America data as well. If

I had to try to put an explanation on

this, I think people are saying, "Look,

I've made good money on some of these

plays. Yes, stocks could keep going up,

but I'm going to diversify." Now, so far

you're seeing private clients, so

essentially retail at Bank of America

leading institutions in dip buying. Uh

so that is continuing. Uh however,

you're seeing some more uh you know

institutional buying. But the problem

that you're getting right now is

corporate buybacks are slowing down. Now

that's a potential one of the potential

red flags for a recession. Now we don't,

you know, only want to hang our hats on

a recession thesis. I'm 50/50, right? I

I plan for both scenarios. Oh my gosh,

it's Taylor Rig. OH, I MISSED IT. They

had this closeup of Taylor Riggs on FA

Fox. I'm sorry, I got distracted there

for a second. But anyway, leading into a

recession, you have um uh non-financial

corporate buybacks. I want you to look

at this. Corporate buybacks peaked out

in about 1999. So about one year before

the stock market bottomed and about or

topped and about two years before

recession. That happened again in 2006.

Corporate buybacks peaked in 2006, about

one year before the stock market topped

and about two years before the 2008

recession. Now, this is going back to

2001.com bubble and 2008. But what's

really interesting is Bank of America is

talking about this. Look at this. Bank

of America says corporate client

buybacks accelerated

uh for a uh a third week to an 8week

high, but the trailing 52- week of

buybacks as a percentage of market cap

has been declining since March to their

lowest level since March of 2024,

which is not great. A potential weakness

into 2026 would be weakness in corporate

buybacks. So that'll be something else

that we pay attention to. Now, if we go

back to this city piece over here, we

wrote down some red flags for recession.

Okay, so um you know, they do talk about

Fed Williams popping up the odds of a

Fed rate cut. Remember, we predicted

that on ADP jobs day. We said, listen,

we got a 43% chance of the Fed cutting

rates in December. All you need right

now is the Fed to come out before the

Fed's blackout window starts today.

Today is when the Fed's blackout window

starts on Black Friday. So, they'll be

silent until the Fed meeting December

10th. And all you need is the Fed to

talk it up. Williams talked it up. We're

at an 83% chance of a cut right now. So,

we're pretty much going to get it. So,

what are the red flags? Okay, so the red

flags of recession, we've got them

enumerated. Well, they're not enumerated

here, but we've got them listed here.

Red flags of recession. We know layoffs

rising are a red flag, but the

participation rate rising for the labor

market is also an issue and city is

paying attention to it as well. So

outside of layoffs, I rate this is

probably the second big flag red flag.

Labor force participation can rise when

the K-shaped economy keeps suffering. So

if we get weak Black Friday sales data,

we'll see. I mean, so far we're kicking.

Thank you, by the way. I think a lot of

people are investing in Reinvest AI, the

lifetime membership or the lifetime

membership for the the you know meet

Kevin membership uh all the trade alerts

9 course and everything. They're taking

advantage of the Black Friday sale. But

I think that's different from consumers.

You know consumers are are getting you

know screwed by high prices and the

K-shaped recovery. But I think people

are still willing to invest in in their

education and their future. But if we

miss on Black Friday sales like the

economy broadly, then people like this

guy who are shilling that you're going

to have this massive beat are going to

look like clowns, but it's probably also

going to be bad for stons. Like listen

to this guy how confident he is.

>> Affordability crisis, whatever, what

jobs, whatever people talk, retail sales

have held up all year and they continue

to be strong. And all the data that you

can see now, we don't have government

data for this month or recent dimes, but

we have credit card data, other data. It

all shows big increases like 5% or even

6% gains year-over-year. You know, it's

it's impossible to give you a precise

point estimate, but I say at least a 5%

year-over-year gain in retail sales

during the holiday period. It could be

more.

>> At least the 5% could be more. Now, that

doesn't jive with all estimates, mind

you. Estimates are a little all over the

place on this. National Retail

Foundation is forecasting a 3.7 to 4.2%

rise. Uh you've got PWC in Deote though,

the accounting firm seeing a potential 5

to 10% decline. If we get a 5% or 10%

decline in Black Friday sales, people

are going to SH9 bricks in the stock

market. And remember, the stock market

selling off can be a recession cause

itself.

So not good. If we see a miss, that's

why people are going to be paying

attention to this. This could be a

catalyst. Hopefully not. You know,

Bloomberg saying shoppers are

underwhelmed by deals and crowds on

Black Friday. I mean, I have v like fond

memories uh in like the early 2000s of

going Black Friday shopping with my dad.

I actually talked about it yesterday

with my dad. Like I told him, I miss

going to Black Friday sales with you

like at the mall. And he's like, Devin,

I remember you waking me up at midnight.

And then guess what he says next? You're

gonna love what he says next. Go to

meekke.com. Sign up for No, he doesn't

say that. [laughter] No. Oh, he's like,

"I remember you waking me up at midnight

and dragging me to GameStop for the

midnight sales."

Dude, I wanted a job at GameStop so

badly when I was a kid. GameStop, by the

way, up 4%. Shout out to GameStop. Great

balance sheet, by the way. Great, great

balance sheet. I love what's going on at

GameStop right now. And the sales lately

have been good. And as long as Bitcoin

holds up, we won't have to take too much

of a negative on on the quarterly

earnings there due to Bitcoin write

downs.

>> Kevin is much more interested than most

people, by the way, in the balance

sheet.

>> Yeah, exactly. Uh but we have to also

look at some of these other issues.

Labor force participation is starting to

rise now. It could start rising because

at if Black Friday sales miss and people

get laid off, older people and families

might have to go back to work. early

retirees. There are two and a half

million excess early retirees. If they

go back to work or just more people have

to participate, a single inome household

has to turn into a dual income household

because it's harder to get a job.

Participation rate goes up. The

unemployment rate skyrockets. That's

bad. So, ironically, the participation

rate rising is not only a sign of

economic stress, but a big move up in

the unemployment rate. And it just

started moving up. So layoffs rising,

unemployment rate goes up. Participation

rate rising, unemployment rate goes up.

The level of 27 weeks unemployed people.

This is your longterm unemployed bunch

of people, right? You could just Google

it. St. Louis, Fred, 27 weeks

unemployed. You want to pay attention to

that. It is a leading sort of harbinger

of a recession. And if you just look,

zoom in over here, 2001 skyrockets. 2008

skyrockets. COVID, obviously. What's

happening on the right,

bouncing up again. But it's not just the

27we unemployed level. It's also black.

Yes, the color the color of skin. Black

unemployment rising is another

harbinger. Uh this is seen right here.

And I don't know if it's as much of a

leading indicator as it is a coincident

indicator. But if you look at every

recession 82 80 90 uh 2001

2008 co black unemployment rising is a

harbinger of the unemployment rate

rising. They may happen at the same time

but as you can see right now there's a

bit of a disconnect and with some of the

missing data that we have black

unemployment suddenly skyrocketing on

the right. Uh, some people are saying

that and and you know this this is just

like I'm going to try to be as neutral

and observant here as possible because

some people are going, "Oh my god,

that's racist." But some people are

making the argument that black

individuals may be more likely to be

exposed to being replaced by artificial

intelligence. I don't know if that's

true. I've seen the argument though. Is

it possible? I I don't know. But that's

what some people are arguing. So maybe

maybe there's a I I don't know. It

historically hasn't been true, but

historically we haven't had AI, right?

So, I don't know. Uh then you also of

course have this risk that the Federal

Reserve exacerbates being too late

because they look at uh still elevated

core CPI levels because of inflation. Of

course, you have the Japanese carry

trade, the private credit disaster. But

I'll tell you, you have to balance out

this private credit concern with what

happened with private credit and um oh,

what was that company called? We just

had a $300 million uh uh subprime

mortgage money raise and I was

absolutely blown away by this. By the

way, you had like a 200 or $399 million

money raise for a subprime uh uh credit

Pagaya Pakaya the private

credit issuer Pagaya

$399 million subprime debt deal and they

actually raised it. Now, they had to

increase the yield to justify, but

still, man, what the hell? How is

private credit and subprime auto in this

environment still raising $399 million?

Kind of not very recessionary, if you

ask me. This is why the data is kind of

like I don't know, man. Like, I don't

know. Keep buying the dips. Been

winning. You know, every dip so far

that's been bought this year has been a

winner. You know what else is a winner

is Reinvest AI. A ton of you signing up

for this, by the way. I'd say probably

at like a, you know, if I had to average

it out, we're probably three people

buying a Meet Kevin membership right

now. Uh, so if you go to meet Kevin.com,

you get the Black Friday sale on the

Meet Kevin membership, which gets the

new course, by the way, that's coming

out as well. That'll be great. And all

of the other ones, mind you, gets

everything, which is cool. Uh, but um,

but there probably three people buying

this for every seven of you buying the

lifetime access to Reinvest AI. And of

course, some of you are bundling it up

as well. If you join like the BKE

membership, you get the bundle coupon.

Um, but anyway, so um, yeah, this is

really interesting. So, and of course,

you have the Japanese carry trade, which

is another risk factor, but that's more

of an issue if we see a sudden reversal

in some, you know, something going on

with the USD to the yen, right? Uh,

there was a little bit of I I think

people are once bitten, twice shy, so I

see it as less of an issue. I think

people are more likely to frontr run and

rebalance. I think that's why we're

seeing some of the single stock selling

ETF buying because people are minimizing

their margin. They're paying off some

debts and it actually builds stability

going into 2026 which is good. So all of

this is so far very 50/50 on data. I

also think this Bur depreciation cycle

is overblown. I think the Bur

depreciation cycle is a postrecession

issue, not a leading recession issue.

That's my opinion with with the Bur

cycle like it will be an issue but it'll

happen in the future. We also uh you

know they say here uh Croup reiterates

that five stocks within the MAX 7 are

trading at materially lower pees not

including uh Tesla obviously materially

lower forward pees relative to the start

of the year. This means we've seen more

growth and more earnings at these mag

five like Meta being part of them and

they're actually becoming cheaper on a

valuation basis while companies uh you

know while all of a sudden people are

worried and maybe diversifying away from

them. I don't know but the valuations

are not high on those. Anyway, uh they

say the Santa rally has not been kind to

investors. What we really need to keep

going to be bullish towards the end of

the year is a bullish Fed. Bullish

bullish Fed. Somebody says, "What is

Reinvest AI?" Just go look it up. Look

up the housing disaster video and you'll

see it. So just go to YouTube really

quick, type in Meet Kevin Housing

Disaster. Okay, meet Kevin Housing

Disaster. And if you type that in, watch

uh where is Oh, this one. This one right

here. I just really effed up housing

disaster. If you watch this video where

I got the little light on my head,

that's the video you want to watch to

learn about the uh reinvest AI. It's

it's house hacks AI product.

Uh and we're doing a Black Friday sale

on it. It launches in December. You you

lock in lifetime access. It's I think

it's a killer deal, but if you watch

that, you'll learn more about it. Uh

okay. So anyway, so where was I? This

Oh, yeah. this idea about the Fed going

dovish in December. Bro, you can't you

got to be kidding me. They're not going

to have data to be dovish on that. Uh,

you know, it's ridiculous. Uh, so what

you really have to Somebody says, "Did

you watch Coffeezilla's video on

Nvidia?" I'm sure he watched my analysis

on Nvidia. [laughter]

Uh, but yeah. No, like like I we

reviewed this in the yesterday

Thanksgiving video. Like he didn't

really tell us anything new. We knew

that. This is sort of a summary for uh

the the the younger cohort. Uh but

anyway, no, what you got to pay

attention here to here is the Fed is not

going to be dovish in December. I think

Kevin prediction. Okay, you're going to

and this is why I say the bullishness

could temporarily end. Uh D9 D9 bullish

trend may end. Why? because at D10 we're

going to get a hawkish cut. Uh so it'll

be bullish that we get the cut, but

you're going to get a hawkish cut and

that's going to be bearish. Uh

unfortunately, that's my take. So I I

don't think that City is going to see a

dovish Fed in the December meeting.

There's no way. You'll get the cut, but

no way. What else do we have here? Uh we

have uh Taylor Riggs. There's Taylor

Riggs. Uh then over here you have the

story. What do we have here? We've got

late October, the real uh factor shock

here. This is uh this is Goldman Sachs.

Basically, they're talking about decing,

you know, and breath has finally started

to heal, which is bullish. This means

more stocks moving up versus down. You

see this in the consumer names as well.

Dave and Busters has had one hell of a

rally uh from the bottom. You're also

seeing Circle come back, by the way.

Circle has gone full circle, fully

retraced, 100% retracement. Flow's

turning a little bit more positive.

That's great. Magga schism, expect the

stimulus checks, they think so they

could buy the house. That's fine. Uh and

then we saw the Franklin Templeton

piece. But yeah, I mean, if you look at

some of the sticks, uh going into the

close here, uh you you got you got a

little bit of a push there on the cues.

Take a look at this here. Look at that.

That's nice. Wow. That's nice. Finally

broke off 6 uh 617. This has been our

goal all day long was getting 619 to or

617 to break and we finally launched.

This is great because it's a sign of

institutional flows into broader ETFs at

the close of the day. So that means

holding 617 broadly bullish. Good. I

still maintain that we could get 627

by December 9th. So uh 627 by December

9th, but that's when the catalysts start

getting a little harder. It means we

don't necessarily go to a full retrace.

It means we get the cues that go back up

to about 627, not all-time high 637, but

then we get a hawkish Fed and and then

it's going to become, you know, we're

going to be going back to uh the good

old

>> data dependent.

>> And that's of course where we decide are

we going recessionary or not. So that's

a bit of the data set for today. If we

look at, you know, the economist, the

economy talks about margin squeezes that

could lead to people getting fired. Big

deal. We already know that. I mean,

people losing their jobs suck, but it's

old news. Uh, Axios has a piece saying

that the only social media platform

that's down since 2021 is X. So, they're

arguing that people are uh fleeing X.

You've got a clock tower for sale that

went under contract, which is kind of

cool, in the Tribeca region of Manhattan

for like $19 million, which is really

awesome. It looks really cool. I'm

totally jealous. American consumers are

miserable, but they keep spending. We'll

see on Black Friday deal data. And

officials have been warning about the

Hong Kong fire. Uh we did see commentary

about this as well that uh the bamboo

scaffolding as well as flammable foam

panels along the side of the

construction site uh were a long-term

warning for these buildings, but uh

apparently uh those warnings were not

heeded at all. So this gives you an idea

of what's going on. Now there were also

notes this morning about Zalinski and

Zalinski is basically VP quitting. Now,

something to know about this is it's

entirely possible. Oh, while silver hits

all-time highs, right? So, what's we'll

talk about that in just a moment. What's

interesting here is there are a lot of

people that look at this with skepticism

and they say that how interesting that

as soon as you get this guy uh starts

bagging on a potential peace deal

between Russia and the United States for

Ukraine, which is basically being

negotiated by the United States. As soon

as this guy says, "Hey, we're not giving

up. We're not giving in." all of a

sudden he gets raided for corruption and

then resigns. Is that really a surprise

that you know on one hand you're going

to have people going, "Oh, Ukraine

corrupt. Haha, what a surprise." On the

other hand, you're going to have people

going, "Yep, people think Ukraine is

corrupt." So therefore, the easiest way

to get somebody to quit is to raid them

for corruption. and then you force them

out and they're potentially a a sea

block so to speak to getting your deal

done. So people are going to assume

they're guilty because that's the meme

these days. That's the momentum these

days is assume they're guilty. So you're

going to get guilty until proven

innocent. The fact that they resign is

the expected

outcome. That's the expectation. And uh

and maybe it makes it easier to get a

deal in Ukraine. Kind of wild. a little

cynical, but probably exactly what's

going on. Silver hits an all-time high

and uh gold is, you know, about now

being talked about as potentially the uh

you know, Reuters got a big piece about

Tether uh aligning the rally in gold

with Tether going to buy gold. So,

nothing to get gold and uh you know,

metals bugs really excited than hearing

crypto bros are buying gold.

So, we'll see if that continues. Uh, and

then

the big thing to cap all of that off

with is of course, let's just shout out

those of you who bought the memberships

within the last hour here. Okay, let's

look at like the last 60 minutes of

those of you who bought. Uh, Motabique,

Motabique, thanks for joining the Meet

Kevin membership. Oh, we got the bundle.

Motabique bought the ME Kevin membership

and reinvest AI. Vic joins Reinvest AI.

Keith joins the Meet Kevin membership.

Here's Salvator. Salvatore joins the

Reinvest AAI. Aaron joins the Meet Kevin

membership. Mangfan joins Reinvest AI.

Join join John joins Reinvest AI. Carlos

joins Reinvest AI. Matthew and Baddy.

There's Baddy. Jonathan, Miguel, Justin,

all of you. Reinvest AI. all within the

last my list ends after an hour. So, uh

that's all I got last hour there.

Welcome aboard. Thank you for joining on

Black Friday. And then of course to top

it off, yes, it does seem like Bitcoin

is uh you know, while it had a little

bit of a regain there of 90, little bit

of profit taking again. You got to 93

and still a little bit of diversifying

happening here. Uh some people might

think that this is because of um you

know Michael Sailor's strategy uh having

some trouble raising money to keep

supporting Bitcoin and so people may be

moving from Bitcoin diversifying into

who knows those broaderbased ETFs just

like Croup is talking about. Uh but uh

but if you are going to buy oh we almost

made it to 433. This was the goal uh on

Tesla was getting to 433 today and we

rejected 432 twice or 433 twice. Look at

that. Two rejections.

But anyway, uh if you are going to buy

ETFs, remember that QQQM

is much cheaper than QQQ to hold and uh

that's because they don't advertise

QQQM. But evaluate the differences

yourself

and then uh you'll find out. So

yeah, there you have it. So I think uh

all that's left to talk about now is Oh,

that's not what I meant to do.

>> Welcome. Nice to have you. You want to

talk about love making, right?

>> Kevin is very talented, but I don't know

that's going to be him, but he's a very

talented guy.

>> Kevin's somebody would consider Kevin is

fantastic, too.

>> I think that Kevin's a brilliant guy,

and I think that we'd we'd we we'd all

be very lucky to have him.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this. We'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.