Prepare for Crazy Markets this Week & Powell

well holy smokes The Q's just broke

their downtrend on the day the downtrend

was pretty nasty we were watching it

this morning in the course member live

stream and the stock market open live

stream the free one over at the meet

Kevin live Channel and boy oh boy things

are rallying why well the only thing

that came in right around this time was

at 8:00 right there right there the

bottom basically all we got were the New

York oneyear inflation expectations

which actually came in slightly higher

than the previous or or than the pre the

the current survey survey was 3.01 it

came in at 3.02 which is a little higher

why then are the Q skyrocketing right

now well it's because the inflation

expectations are down from the 3.17% in

the prior and we got to start

considering some of the other seeds that

are being planted right now first of all

Nick T over at the Wall Street Journal

he had a fantastic post on some things

to pay attention to regarding the fed

and where we're going potentially with

Fed rate Cuts right now we're looking at

the smallest gain in average hourly

earnings since 2021 nothing alarming

enough to force rate Cuts in July but

eventually further weakening in the

labor market won't be desirable and if

we get a soft CPI and PPI report this

week Thursday Friday we might end up

being in talks for September cut so Nick

T is starting to do the Nikki leaks part

of his job job which is starting to leak

kind of what the Federal Reserve wants

markets to think and basically the

Federal Reserve is starting to Prime us

to say look if we get a weak inflation

read on Thursday and Friday we're going

to start cutting and the Market's

probably going to pump it up on that

News until we actually start having to

price in a recession which at this point

isn't too exciting or nobody wants to

talk about that right now that that

doesn't mean the market isn't due for a

correction but the point is it's really

hard to bet against a rally while the

rally is going you kind of have to keep

betting with the rally the trend is your

friend and then when it you turns be

quick to adapt this is what we're doing

in the stocks and psych group for

example the alerts that I sent out today

I threw money into Tesla calls those are

up 45k at the time of this reading here

nface call up 23k and that was like a

60k investment so that's up 35% paler

calls are up 23% 20

$1,000 uh I've got

two AMD calls one of them's down one of

them's up uh so AMD is getting a little

stuck in the mud but all of these by the

way I think have have some real momentum

ahead of them uh if we can get

positivity about rate cuts and inflation

continuing this week which I think

that's why right at 8:00 a.m. this

morning when those New York fed

inflation numbers came in roughly as

expected the market was like license to

Rally baby let's go because the market

is often fearful about oh no what if we

get a bad report report jpow speaks

tomorrow morning uh but jpow is probably

just going to reference you know the

importance of the CPI and PPI numbers

coming up so jpow talking in the house

tomorrow will cover it to see if there's

anything special I'm not expecting

anything other than what we saw from

Sarah Eisen last week then of course we

have uh J pal speaking in the Senate the

next day which will basically just be a

mirr image of what we had uh or have

tomorrow so I'm not too worried about

that instead I'm going to be looking at

CPI which is Thursday morning we're

expecting C CPI month over month to come

in at just 0.1% it is a little up from

the prior 00 and core CPI expected to

come in at 0.2 uh some like Morgan

Stanley think that'll come in at 0.27

year-over-year CPI coming down to 31 is

the expectation core year-over-year

34 PPI looking at the month over Monon

0.1 core month over month looking at0 2

on both the core with trade and without

trade so uh and then of course you've

got University of Michigan sentiment

reads uh which will come out on Friday

so overall all of these are things that

could really promote an excited Market

personally uh you know I and I'll talk

specific trades here for a moment but I

do want to give some Credence to the

potential risks that we're facing in the

economy so we're going to go ahead and

pull those up from ehack uh.com but uh

some of the things that uh I'm paying

attention to uh at least in trading uh

is I'm I'm specifically watching the

uptrend on uh paler there's substantial

uptrend momentum on paler I'm watching

the uh breakout above 165 on AMD that's

a really big deal since AMD is one of

the biggest laggards in the AI race the

fact that it's breaking out above 165

and it's only done that so far for one

full day on the candlesticks is a good

technical indicator you've got the

momentum at palent here which is great

the social sentiment massive uh n phase

you just had an upgrade on sedge which

is probably uh why n phase is moving up

as much as it is today and honestly it's

probably just going to keep going I mean

no I can't guarantee anything obviously

I don't have a crystal ball ultimately

you have to make your own decisions but

what I think is interesting about end

phase is we just had a local bottom at

95 and then you got this industry

upgrade I think you're potentially

setting up for a Tesla moment at end

phase so I'm starting to get really

excited again over at end phase uh

before it actually starts going euphoric

here and uh and Tesla is about to test

the 258 level once we break 258 okay uh

personally I think most of the order

book at 250 has already been cleared we

in fact we came back down we tested 250

we bounced off 250 how much more of an

invitation do you want on Tesla okay the

250 order book I think is the big sell

order

book 258 is technically the FIB level

but I don't actually think we're going

to get a lot of selling pressure here it

would make sense if we have some because

it is a fib level but guess what happens

after 250 folks 295

and Tesla in my opinion doesn't get

euphoric until we hit 331 so between now

and Robo taxi day let's just say I have

a I got some calls on some of these okay

and remember if you want to see exactly

when I'm entering and exiting trades no

guarantees we can make money but I sent

all my alerts to those of you in the

stocks and psych group link down below

next price increase is Friday we

actually extended the July 4th uh

through this week just because we have

CPI PPI there's a lot a lot of people

are a little uncertain so they're kind

of waiting to see what happens with data

so far data seems to be good doing well

but there are some risk factors look at

this you've got uni credit that says

look we we've got to seriously start

worrying about the cooling in the labor

market because we have just late cycle

jobs that we're creating healthc care

and government jobs are late cycle a

cyclical jobs in other words when the

economy goes down and starts faltering

these are sectors that might still be

adding and that's dangerous because they

give you this false read of how strong

the economy truly is because if you

remove those you might be closer to uh

you know a 50,000 job gain rather than a

200,000 job gain right 75% is being

contributed by government and education

and that would be a substantially weak

labor report which the Federal Reserve

would likely respond to with more rapid

Cuts now uni credit thinks we really

need to start thinking about rate Cuts

very very quickly especially since and I

was kind of combining this in here

construction is another sector that's

that's showing growth but it's really

lagging in my opinion because housing

starts are trending down but you know

you still got to complete the prior

starts so it kind of takes time for you

to see construction lag down I

personally mention that I'm still at a

6.7 on the bull bear scale mostly

because you know a lot of people are

saying to me they're like look Kevin you

know unit credits begging for rate Cuts

even though they're worried about it

coming across as political it seems like

the economy keeps going up Kevin why

aren't you maybe more allocated uh in

your personal portfolio to going Allin

going margin why aren't you going nuts

right now and trying to milk everything

I'm a big fan of trading in this

environment but what what I am 100% not

willing to do is end up in a recession

and then eliminate my personal ability

to float all of the startups that we

have so we've got you know not only

obviously like the YouTube business

which is a very high margin business

it's low expense so I'm not so worried

about that but you know we've got house

Haack and we've got suck a broker dealer

these are and both of them sort of

contribute to each other suck probably

benefits house hack more but these are

very very uh uh you know relative to the

YouTube business cost heavy businesses

and if we go into a recession I will not

be one of those people who ends up

having my companies fail just because

there's a recession so it's one of the

reasons I'm putting a lid on my

enthusiasm and saying look I I'm willing

to be cautiously optimistic but I'm also

not going to be caught with my pants

down in a recession uh so that's that's

very very important so everybody this is

why I always say while we talk Finance

on this channel it's always very very

important that you analyze finances from

a personal point of view the fomo the

fear of missing out should not be a

reason to put yourself into a

substantial risk category that ends up

uh causing you substantial pain if we go

we do go into a sudden recession because

we we have to be real yes the S rule is

getting closer to indicating a recession

coming but you know thing about the S

rule is it it it the S rule basically

Compares back to the moving average of

last year so it says hey once the

unemployment rate goes up you know a

certain percentage above the 12-month

moving average of last year uh then we

go into a recession and we're getting

close to triggering that like let's say

the top of this camera frame here is

where the trigger is we're probably

right here right now but the problem is

it's not necessarily a problem it's a

feature the S Ru is designed to measure

volatility and joblessness so when a lot

of people lose their jobs quickly the S

rule triggers it's like oh this has got

to be a recession but what happens is if

it SL if the unemployment rate let's say

stays stable at 4.1 for the next two

months thanks to immigration legal or

whatever doesn't matter illegal um both

get counted right then the 12-month

moving average of the unemployment rate

will actually move up and then the

difference between the two will narrow

and the Su rule will actually come back

down so it hasn't fired yet and it's

possible it won't fire at

all uh and and this is the the

frustrating thing is data is just so

messy right now there's there no

shortages of you know Peter shiff saying

Oh but you know you six unemployment's

over 7% yeah dude it's been over 7% for

like a year uh and I love Peter shift

don't get me wrong I'm just saying like

there there are no shortages of being

able to find bad data right now I mean

look at isms okay ISM Services I put

this over here uh these red arrows are

all recession indicators every time ISM

Services fall under 50 you get a

recession oh but wait a minute what

happened in December of 2022 it

triggered under 50 oh my gosh we're

still not in a recession now we're under

50 again is this time different or is

this time just delayed I personally lean

towards this time is just delayed I

think the market has a lot of euphoria

between now and pain uh yeah don't don't

get me wrong I do think there could be

pain coming towards the beginning of

2025 but for right now the economy

continues to chug along uh and the stock

market is just going to keep pumping

probably because of that so I that's why

I think this is a very difficult Market

to put down in other words by puts on uh

and it's a much easier Market to just

have calls on so we'll see uh then uh

take a look at this how worried should

we be macro surprises turn negative

across a major economies

so basically this is a way of saying

that economists are are sort of getting

surprised by bad data and uh and they're

not expecting it which makes people it

basically is a sign that people think

the economy is stronger than it is which

is not great let's be clear about that

it's not

great uh Academy Securities is worried

that if we begin to cut in September

it'll seem too political but you know

what are you going to do French

elections obvious VI ly didn't give us a

lot of clarity in what's going to happen

in France but that also is what it is

it's one of those you know what are you

going to do situations but um folks um

this is uh This Is My overall take here

I'm uh I how should I summarize this uh

I think the best way to summarize it is

frankly I think the market is going to

continue to go through a period of

euphoria and and

Topping uh until we actually start

getting some black swans obviously when

we start getting some some really

negative data uh you're going to want to

be quick you know and this is going to

be hard like you're going to want to be

able to transition your portfolio very

very quickly uh and and I I don't know

how quickly people are going to be able

to transition uh and I'm not saying that

you know you need to run for the covers

uh you know run for shelter now and hi

you know quick uh hide your kids hide

your wife you know everything's going to

poops um we're not there yet but it

would make makes sense that we're

getting closer to topping out especially

as we're starting to get some GDP data

coming in a little softer you know I

always like to jump on over to the uh

Atlanta fed uh real GDP measures and uh

when you look at these they're

definitely falling you know real GDP is

coming down right now it's being

estimated at just

1.5% which you think would lead the

Federal Reserve to want to cut but not

really because if you go to the fomc's

last summary of economic projections you

know their Dot Plot they tell you that

they actually expect GDP for this year

uh right where is it there it is GDP uh

for this year to sit at

21 and that's roughly what we've been

averaging question is is 14 going to be

something that's going to trigger them

to cut and that I think will take much

more than just one month of weakness in

the Atlanta fed uh GDP rids hence for me

I think we're probably lining up for a

September cut which yes will appear

political versus a July cut I can tell

you though what the market is pricing in

let's go ahead and take a look at market

pricing because we generally like

looking at that market pricing right now

is looking at a September 81% chance of

a cut pricing in 1.25 cuts for November

and pricing in a full two cuts for

November with 2 and A2 Cuts priced in

for the end of January so anyway uh make

sure to check out the programs on

building your wealth link down below

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have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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