Terrible UBS Report WARNS of -15% Stock Market in DAYS

this is the most bearish piece yet and

it just came out from UBS I'm not

looking for Bare pieces I've covered

plenty of bull pieces here but I'll tell

you this is scary look at this very

closely Market internal weekly UBS I am

turning tactically bearish the next 2

months expecting at least a 10% decline

looking for hedges in various different

areas we're going to be covering which

Hedges they like

and boy oh boy this is a really big

piece because they talk about how some

things have gotten so bad in the market

that we haven't been positioned like

this since 6 years since covid since' 08

in some cases this is crazy so let's go

through this and try to add some balance

to this a few things to know number one

tonight at 6 p.m. folks 6:00 p.m.

tonight what are you going to get you're

going to get the debate between Harris

and Trump this is is obviously going to

be a big deal mostly because if Donald

Trump is deemed to potentially win this

debate people think markets and crypto

might go up vice versa for Harris

potentially winning the debate I'll be

covering it live next tomorrow at 5:30

a.m. California time all these times

California time we get the CPI report uh

and then 5:30 a.m. on Thursday we're

going to get the PPI report these are

really going to be important for the

direction of Treasury yields for the

direction of Investments related to

those mortgages you name it a lot

happens within the next 48 hours here

and that's why it's really important you

mark your calendar for 6:00 p.m. tonight

uh and then you could also mark your

calendar for 6:00 p.m. on Thursday

because folks you've been asking for it

we're adding a flash sale to cover this

wild period of time it's going to just

be until 6:00 p.m. on Thursday now to

600 p.m. on Thursday flash sale for the

courses on building your wealth over at

meetkevin.com those will include the

stocks and psychology of money group

where I'm planning to increase one trade

that I've going on right now that's a

$1.5 million trade to over two maybe

even $3 million in size it is a huge

trade and we're going to do a full

course member live stream on why we're

making that trade tomorrow morning all

right so here we go over the last two

weeks Market internals have deteriorated

to be the worst year to date current

condition is also the most vulnerable in

6 years which means any external shock

or slight disappointment of the data

could trigger a large unwind notice how

they're saying slight disappointment

large unwind folks this is the opposite

of when people think oh a lot of people

have money to buy the dip you're going

to see right here people are selling the

dip they're not buying the dip you're

going to see everything about retail

flows and a lot of warnings here it's

wild it's actually one of the reasons

why I think the trade that I have that's

1 .5 million in value now it's already

up this trade it's been up I've just

added to it again but I might go as far

as maybe doubling the trade that I'm

doing the reason I might do that is

because I think this trade Works whether

we have a recession no recession or some

form of shock collapse and boy oh boy

this piece right here will make you want

to consider that trade now valuate it

for your own portfolio this video is not

Financial advice you could come to the

course member live stream tomorrow we'll

talk all about it that's all tomorrow's

course member live stream is going to be

dedicated to why I would put potentially

1 and a half to $3 million on one trade

it's going to be wild okay take a look

at this I'm tactically bearish for the

next two months before the election on

the back of the two-month intraday

recovery score collapse to a six-year

low the intraday recovery scores just so

you know recovery scores are just a

fancy way of saying hey we have an

algorithm where we can weigh how much we

think after a market sell-off the market

is likely to recover based on volatility

sentiment flows and a whole host of

other factors they're saying they have

not seen recovery scores as low as this

in six years which takes you back to

like the you know Bond crisis of 2018

even worse than what you saw during

covid take a look at this this call is

more bearish than my email on Tuesday on

Tuesday I suggested a just incase hedge

of macro events given neutral recovery

score this was last Tuesday did just

release this note uh I I got it out last

night here and I expect a choppy market

today suggested a tail hedge due to the

two-month recovery score collapse as I

expect the S&P 500 could be minus 10%

Peak from Peak or minus 8% from here

within 1 month and -5% so double that

within 2 months you know after I read

this note last night I think I spent

probably around 2 hours trying to

evaluate what the best Hedges would be

for this and I actually don't like their

Hedges their Hedges are iwm XLF and hyg

I actually think I have a better hedge

that can last longer than these and work

whether this person is right or wrong uh

and and that's why I'm going so bullish

on it obviously that's my the thing

about me is I just put my money where my

mouth is and if you want to see what my

perspective is and why it is use the

flash sale meetkevin.com you know how to

do it you pay once you get lifetime

access forever to all the course member

live streams ever this is not a

long-term view unless the four-month

recovery score makes a decisive shift so

in other words the four-month recovery

score after the election basically

saying hey maybe we could still be okay

so they're essentially saying hey four

months out neutral 2 months out really

bearish which aligns with my desire to

hedge between now and them and then by

the dip before the election if we get

unwinding in recessionary data there's a

lot of recessionary data out there and

it's it's just getting worse it's not

getting better okay so what else do we

have here even a slight disappointment

of any upcoming economic releases could

trigger a large unwind uh on no news

events moderate volume selling could

continue in the market my current

preferred Hedges are iwm XLF and hyg

downside so in other words short XLF and

hyg option premiums are screened as

cheap basically they're saying here like

not a lot of people are shorting them

right now maybe because iwm had a short

squeeze it had a little run up there

which you know people like Tom Lee

thought was fundamental and it was

really just a short squeeze and those

actually make for a good hedge right now

financials by the way financials just

tanked today after the bosel 3 release

but financials were actually above their

50-day moving average which suggests

near-term upside could be limited how

funny because they literally just tanked

like 5 to 7% like JP Morgan even Tanked

but anyway the financial sector is also

the least hedged across all 11 sectors

yikes uh take a look at this intraday

recovery scores the recent rally was

associated with a constant sell the

rally profit taking and a lap lack of

buy the dip flow an indication that

investors are losing conviction in the

market very bad going into a volatile

September and October in election season

intraday recovery score fell by 14% in

the one month on August AUST 29th to -7%

on the 4mon again being neutral today

the 2-month score fell further to 22% so

in other words the recovery score is

terrible here at a 6year low they say

that the risk a symmetry has now

increased to where you only need six

sell the rally days to turn the entire

market bearish and you need 12 days of

buy the dip to turn the market bullish

so in other words much more Nega ative

skew here might not take a lot to push

this Market over the edge to make this

condition even more rare the recent

sharp confidence collapse was so rare in

history that it's only happened 15 times

since 2000 and only nine times in the 25

years when the recovery score collapse

was coupled with an S&P 500 rally so in

other words out of those 15 times only

nine of them occurred when you had a

recovery in the S&P 500 and the recovery

was low in other words this is probably

not a built to last recovery we're

seeing in the NASDAQ or the S&P 500 this

is very bearish uh in all of seven out

of seven times since June of 2021 uh

2001 the S&P 500 fell an average of 5.2%

within 1 month and 8.1% within 3 months

and they give the ranges here pretty

much all down on the ranges so far the

S&P 500 is only down 1. 6% since 829

when this indication was triggered a

investors are on the edge and are

vulnerable to any bad news given the S&P

500 up 18% all the way to 830 many

investors had a good year and are ready

to cut some risk in the two months

before the election this is why

sentiment hasn't turned bearish but

trading Behavior has been cautious any

disappointment in the upcoming economic

releases could accelerate the modest

profit taking Behavior and the massive

unwind uh retail Market making flow has

turned to bad in the last 2 weeks this

implies that in the case of any Market

selloff I do not expect retail investors

to buy the dip they may actually instead

sell the dip selling was all in single

stocks with the most extreme being in

consumer staples over the last uh uh you

know 12 days of August current retail

sell flow is almost identical to the 3we

sell flow that we saw in July and early

August and Retail Market making data

suggests that sell the dip in the last

five of 10 days was associated with the

S&P 500 down 133% on average in the

future in addition to that we hit Peak

seasonality for corporate

BuyBacks now and by the third week of

September you hit a blackout again where

you're going to stop getting corporate

BuyBacks at all until October earnings

for Q3 this this means the market is

expected to lose a major buyer of Last

Resort in the third week of September so

in other words you've kind of got a

little heads up warning here that

probably between

9:21 to maybe 10:30 right October 30th

you've got some major potential oopsy

dupsies ahead of you you might want to

prepare for again I'm preparing with

multi-million do worth of bats that I

think will do well whether we just slow

slly Trend down uh or we trade sideways

the FED moves slowly or we have a dirty

recession I think I found a way to play

this we'll have the full excuse me full

explanation the course member live

stream tomorrow uh that'll be right

around 7:15 7:30 California time in the

morning after we get the CPI data we'll

cover this in detail exactly what I

think the upside and downside risks are

and how to minimize some of those

downside risks while maximizing the

upside uh and remember once you join

once you get access for life so even if

you just want to look and go what's he

seeing out there and you look at he go

nah I'm going to do the opposite that's

fine you get access for Life uh I you

know I can't make any guarantees

obviously you know that I also expect

risk appetite to collapse or appetite

collapse to dominate Market internals so

in other words you know if you get a a

selloff you know you're going to see the

sell-off potentially everywhere is what

they're suggesting they see commodity

and trading Association individuals

planning to sell within the next few

weeks I don't really trust that data I

feel like they always sort of flip-flop

anyway so I didn't add any highlights

here we got a lot of charts and data

that go on in the next uh frankly you

know 30 pages of this but that's the

overall big warning and again they're

telling you worst data signs that we

have seen for the market since 2018 and

the market had a little oopsy doopsy in

2018 now that doesn't mean you're going

to have red every single day and it

doesn't mean it's time to panic look the

reality is in the long run investing in

a diversified portfolio like vo with

some bonds with some real estate is

probably a fantastic way to wealth you

could even get some crypto in there if

you really want somebody to analyze your

personal situation then do consider

going to get actual licensed Financial

advice from my team of financial

advisers they get my advice in terms of

how to work with you and so we'll be

reviewing your scenario together so I'll

actually be looking at every every one

of our client scenarios to make sure

that my fingers and my touch has been on

it and we want to try to say hey how can

we position you to make sure whether

you're in vo and bonds how can we expose

you to some real estate let maybe you're

all real estate how can we get you

exposed to some buy the dip

opportunities and stocks you're all

bonds how can we get you into real

estate and stocks you want to throw some

crypto in there you need a new car need

a new house need to renovate a property

need help with this or separately need

business Consulting go to stock

stack.com check it out sign up that's

obviously separate from the courses and

the trading that I do that you can find

over at meetkevin.com stock hack.com is

great option this terrible bear piece

sorry to say there's no sugar cating

this one thanks so much for watching

we'll see you in the next one goodbye

and good luck can not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin PA there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any

thirdparty content I show shall not be

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

and shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links are promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate and actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house Haack nor am I presently acting as

a market maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house Haack to

always read the PPM at house hack.com