DOGE *Collapses* D.C. Housing Market | The Facts.

Washington DC home prices absolutely

collapsing because doge is going in

firing any worker they can get their

hands on here on this chart you could

see an 8.6% decline in real estate

prices in Washington DC since well I

mean it is a year-over-year comparison

but if you look at what the kesi letter

says they say since Doge began its

layoffs take a look at this folks as a

real estate broker and well the CEO of a

real estate company what kind of

insights can we actually glean from the

data to suggest is this because of Doge

or real estate values collapsing in the

DC area because of the Department of

governmental efficiency going in

potentially laying off as many workers

as they get their hands on especially

with Donald Trump's resignation offer

which 75,000 federal workers have

reportedly according to the Wall Street

Journal accepted remember that

resignation offer allows you to quote

resign from your federal job where you

typically a federal worker protections

that don't allow you to get fired once

you're pass your probationary period so

instead Donald Trump offered those

workers the opportunity to resign get

pay between now through September for

doing no work and meanwhile you can go

find a different job or whatever if

you'd like all you have to do is resign

75,000 accepted and now potentially up

to 200,000 federal workers on probation

have been

fired it's because while you're on

probation you can still get fired that

potentially

includes

Ariel Ariel Kane here hey Elon Musk your

Doge minions just fired me in my col

colleagues at cmmi we were working on

improving maternal Health outcomes at a

lower cost so less pregnant women would

die each year in this country I think

that's that's fewer anyway uh I thought

that would fit nicely into your

agenda the admin told the media

yesterday that the Health and Human

Services Cuts were targeted and didn't

include scientists or people working on

Medicare or Medicare

well I know of scientists who got fired

and I work on Medicaid just wanted to

point out when you get things wrong like

you

requested of course there's a big

discussion and commentary uh in here

about oh well you know what

organizations were you supporting or you

don't fit into elon's agenda and blah

blah blah blah all those debates we

don't really have to get involved in

right now what we need to talk about is

are these layoffs in DC leading to a

real estate collapse

well one thing we know with certainty is

that when people lose their jobs and

they need to relocate because they're

priced out of an area yes the likelihood

is that you're going to have to move

however we are also coming off of the

backs of what I like to refer to as the

covid bubble this is where we have a lot

of people relocate from places like

California to Texas or Florida we've

actually seen a decline in real estate

values in a lot of areas of the country

as part of a downward Trend and parts of

the country have actually been on an

upward Trend since Co in fact I've been

calling this the covid reversal quite

frankly since covid if you know and

you've been following me for years you

know that when I started my company my

real estate company uh in 2022 we said

we're going to buy in the opposite of

the covid reversal markets so when we

started this company everybody was still

flocking to Austin Texas and Florida uh

under this impression that oh uh you

know everybody's going there it's easy

to build there but we know in real

estate that when you overbuild in an

area and you don't have this continued

Catalyst to bring people into an area

you end up with an over Supply after

accelerating new construction and the

prices come down and that's actually

exactly what's happened in many parts of

the country so we prefer to invest in

the areas people were quote unquote

fleeing from like California and what's

fascinating is it's worth comparing the

DC market and what's going on with quote

unquote doge is Doge leading to this

real estate price collapse what's

actually been happening with a broader

Trend because this is going to give us

an understanding of what's actually

happening in the real estate market so

watch this first of all this is the uh

Doge chart where essentially the the

thesis is okay Doge took over uh and uh

prices started declining since Doge took

over what you really have to know is

when you're looking at a uh a real

estate chart uh for for sort of pricing

pricing fluctuates a l lot on a

month-over-month

basis and that's because real estate is

so diverse real estate trades on a

median basis that is when we look at

these charts we use a median basis not

an average basis but that median shifts

a lot and the reason it shifts a lot is

because you have a different mix of

properties you have condos co-ops Town

Homes single families and they trade all

over the Spectrum and when you only have

about 400 to 500 homes trading in a

single month you don't actually have

that much data so the midpoint which is

what the median measures not the average

right that midpoint can actually

fluctuate a lot based on if you have you

know 50 more high-end home sales and for

some reason you didn't have a lot of

condo sales that median can move up and

down a lot so I actually think looking

at some of the year-over-year data to

look at those month comparisons

year-over-year is a mistake you need

something a lot smoother than that to

really understand what a long term trend

is and this is why I bring up the covid

reversal now it's interesting for DC

it's a little harder to piece in there

but let's look at some of the longer

term Trends to really see what's going

on and then then we'll know what's going

on with real

estate all right here we go so on this

chart which is the same one that KC

letter compared to what we can actually

do is rather than use these fluctuations

which don't really tell us much about

what's going on in the market we

actually zoom out not just to the

threeyear but we we could zoom out to

the fiveyear and if you look at the

fiveyear uh and sort of draw a little

range around it you can see we've been

bouncing around all over the place the

lower end of the range we have hit uh

once at the beginning of 2020 once now

uh and once in

2023 and the upper end of the range uh

We've hit a few times we hit at the end

of 2021 a lot of euphoria there end of

2022 uh and then recently in the spring

of 2024 here we've hit the upper end of

the range so this range you can see

fluctuates by about

$120,000 this is an extreme fluctuation

and valuation for Real Estate uh given

that you know median sales price of

$560,000 you know that's like a 20%

swing top to bottom but this is not what

we value real estate on these swings and

again usually it's just a shift of the

median it's not actually a

representation of what's going on with

real estate values to really understand

what's going on with real estate values

you have to zoom out

and so for DC I would argue that the DC

Market has actually been relatively flat

since Co it hasn't significantly

benefited from a you know people moving

there because of some kind of covid boom

and it hasn't benefited from a covid

reversal that is people moving to the

higher cost of living areas like

California now if I type in something

like uh Tampa Florida which was a

recipient of the co boom even Cathy

would ended up moving there we throw in

Tampa Florida recipient of the co boom

uh you can actually see how that covid

boom moved housing valuations uh in

Tampa from a median of about 263 to a

consistent pattern of growth uh to where

you actually got from 263 to like the

mid fours there for a while up to

500,000 in June of 2024 and really only

since this peak in the June of 2024 have

you really started seeing this slowdown

in prices again in Tampa so Tampa's

actually been this steady grower and and

benef officiary of uh the co boom if you

will let's try Austin Texas which is a

market that I believe slowed down a

little sooner than Tampa yeah look at

this much sooner actually than Tampa

Austin is this blue line here you can

see blue uh the Blue Line actually went

from a median of 383 peaked out over

here in May of 2022 and it actually

declined Texas declined from there

median of

666,000 oh the devil's number oh Diablo

uh 383 to 666 straight down now to four

uh sorry to Let's uh get that correct

here 666 straight down to about 516 516

from Peak uh represents a decline of

about 23% so Austin's been in this sort

of reversal for much much longer in

terms of declines and you can see DC is

mostly flat in this period now what's an

area that's basically gone straight up

with no sign of a Slowdown yet well uh

it's going to be an area where house

haak is heavily invested San Diego we're

heavily invested in San Diego uh but you

could really look at various different

markets as well you could look at

Ventura County as well uh and and when

you look at California what's so unique

about California is that uh in

California usually people hear Cali and

they're like oh my gosh fire risk and uh

you know unaffordability or political

risk or whatever but see people forget

that the reason California real estate

is so valuable and quite frankly the

fires reduce Supply

right that means existing home values

probably go up even more this is why

California is outperforming all of these

markets but then again you know I've

been doing real estate now for 15 16

years this is my bread and butter this

this is what I'm good at you can look at

my YouTube channel from eight years ago

all we do just real estate real estate

real estate real estate

videos we we knew that this was likely

to happen and it's why we deployed over

what 98% of our capital in California

markets we knew that this was likely to

happen because of California politics

and this blows people's mind but when I

uh had a seminar just this summer uh I

had a seminar in uh Vegas we invited

Kathy Wood she was there you know a lot

of other folks were there uh it was

quite enjoyable to to to have a

wonderful event and everybody got to uh

uh share their opinions and experiences

on the market but one question that came

up during our real estate segment was

Kevin why is it that you would want to

buy in California in California you have

to deal with all the

politicians and my response was the

benefit of all of the politicians and

the politics of California real estate

is that there's so slow growth and

they're so they make it so hard to build

that they don't actually realize that

the politics themselves in California

are actually a tool for keeping property

values higher see the more the extreme

politics of California restrict building

and make it hard to build in

California the higher your property

values go because jobs are in California

California has the Southern California

coastline real estate some of the best

climate in the world so you got jobs you

got climate yeah you've got some other

issues but ironically the same politics

that people hate on are the reason why

home values actually just keep going up

in Southern

California the liberal policies

themselves make it harder to add Supply

and they give you a hedge so think about

this you buy a home in Texas and then

all of a sudden everybody else is

Building Homes because there's no delay

to Building Homes the government's not

in your way the value of your home

actually goes down because there are

plenty of available substitutes you

don't actually have that in California

kind of fascinating so it's something to

pay attention to when you're thinking

about investing in real estate first

thing that you have to know is we really

have to zoom out on the trends you have

to look at a longer term and ideally you

want to get a moving average of the

trend here uh so redin does not allow us

to do that here but if you actually type

in redin data center you'll be able to

so go redin data center uh and if you

grab their housing market data here

you'll be able to get 12 and 4 week

moving averages and this is going to

make it a lot easier to understand is

that DC Market truly crashing or is this

just sort of like a three-year

flatlining so we're going to look at DC

and we're going to go to uh median sales

price right here and uh here you could

see uh sort of a a little bit of a

better POV on pricing so right now

median sales pricing in the DC area 2025

is the green line this right here is

your year-over-year changes uh so look

right here at the green line you'll

actually notice that when you look at

the year-over-year numbers here on a

trend of 4 weeks home values in DC

aren't crashing they're actually up 2%

year-over-year the same website Redfin

providing you two different sets of data

why well it's because look you had your

high sales Clos in November and your low

sales are now closing in December and

January these month-over-month

fluctuations are impossible to

understand a trend line on don't don't

do this in real estate this is real

estate is not the stock market it moves

a lot slower you have to use an average

go to the 12we

there you go on the 12we moving average

home prices are 3% higher they're higher

than any of these years prior now does

that mean that you know the layoffs

leading to potential sales are wrong no

not necessarily I mean here are

unemployment claims in Washington DC you

could see they're Rising but they're

nowhere near the unemployment claims

that we saw in 2022 or during covid

those are actually cut off probably

because if you showed this whole chart

it would be so high

that this would be look like a joke this

would look like a little fluctuation who

cares so this idea that oh layoffs are

being filed in February of 2025 and

therefore home prices are collapsing in

DC look that's a popular thing to say

you could get a lot of likes and

engagement and tweets and and you know

reshares or whatever going yep

everything's going to crap look at that

real estate's crashing thanks to Elon

Musk in Washington DC look I've got no

real estate in DC I don't really care it

doesn't matter I'm just looking at the

data you can't look at this

month-over-month fluctuation because as

soon as you turn on the moving average

using the same median sales price stat

you actually do not see the data that

you're getting on those monthly

fluctuations so sorry

kesi maybe yall just don't know real

estate or you're looking for some kind

of Engagement farming but this is fully

false the facts don't support what

you're saying now In fairness we do have

active listings at the same place but

price drops are higher not by much

they're higher than the uh 2024 year

right so year-over year they're higher

but you only have 4% more price drops on

the 12we now if you go to four we this

might be a little bit more extreme uh

yep there you go you're 9% over 2023 uh

sorry 0.9% over 2024 and a little bit

over 2023 here so you're getting a

little bit of an increase in price drops

here but you generally do at the

beginning of the year I'm not saying

that prices aren't going to go down uh

you know I'm not trying to take away

that that hope from folks just saying

when we look at the data it's too early

to say uh that you know there's any

actual meaningful impact uh that doge is

having on the real estate market uh now

if you look at uh months of Supply even

months of Supply is stable which this

this is nice this is a good tool to look

at because it actually accounts for how

many buyers you have in an active Market

obviously there are still people

buying uh and uh the number of homes

sold

so far is actually still exceeding 23

and 24 though well below what you saw in

2022 uh and then new listings new

listings are barely above or out of

bound of what you saw in 24 and 3 this

is on the four-week moving average you

know you go to the the 12we it it it's

almost indistinguishable from the prior

years in terms of how many new homes

you're seeing come on the market or how

many homes are selling now look our

interest rates still really high yes is

it unaffordable to buy yes would it make

sense that some people who get laid off

have to end up selling their homes and

moving yes but that could just unlock

inventory for other people who were

moving in to buy so it's too soon to

tell the best way if you really want to

know what's going on with pricing is get

on the ground fly to the area go to open

houses talk to Realtors understand

what's happening on the ground that is

the only way you can know sitting behind

a computer chair you know some kind of

desk I guess you're sitting on a

computer chair behind ask but anyway

it's not the way to understand the real

estate market so when we at house Haack

were able to time the peak of the Austin

real estate market was because we were

on the ground not because we were

looking at you know month over month

changes in median sales prices it's this

every single month you can have a new

headline oh my gosh prices are

skyrocketing oh my gosh prices are

collapsing this the wrong thing to do is

bad data it's bad analysis why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always bit to get

your take