drunk cpi warning

hey so obviously the Bitcoin ETFs have

been approved and uh CPI is tomorrow

morning which on the meet Kevin Market

open live stream channel link down below

we already have the link for the CPI

live stream we'll be covering together

but I I just wanted to have a

transparent and um I I ubered home I

promise and slightly uh mytide uh

conversation with you mostly based on um

just sort of a an overall synopsis so I

don't know why I'm holding this of

what's been going on with consumer

prices and producer prices and I have to

say we're looking at Kroger Celsius

analysis Build-A-Bear Machinery

companies companies that are making

machines we're looking at Carnival

Cruise Lines we're looking at Airbnb

lemonade Insurance Nike Micron pellaton

uh these these companies I'm mentioning

Ulta instacart Costco

deflation okay literally Costco

deflation is very Restoration Hardware

broadcom Oracle American Express these

uh Jet Blue these in the last month

literally the last 32 is days are the

analyses that we've done in the course

member live streams and I just want to

give you the synopsis here okay look I I

understand not everybody wants to be a

course member and hang out with me every

morning people there there are some some

folks and I respect it I get it who

watch my channel who are like

look I can have my daily dose of

Kevin but I can have no more and I get

it I know sometimes we can be a little

overbearing and by we I just mean I uh

but tomorrow is a big

day tomorrow is uh CPI January 11th uh

2024 we are going to have to price in

drum Powell's activity for January 31st

now obviously with this kind of insane

event coming up

tomorrow we'd be crazy not to offer a

coupon code expiring soon on January

31st for the amazing Gold Course link

down below or the other courses on

building your wealth with bundle codes

of the email us at staff atme kevin.com

but beyond that now we actually have to

talk numbers look

listen this is JP Morgan's analysis here

and and I just want you to know for a

moment

that we have still not yet seen the FED

wield critical sword we're going to talk

about this JP Morgan analysis on screen

here we've touched on it a little bit in

a market open live stream this morning

but I just want to be

clear and and I I don't think people

understand

that I I have this belief this like

really really strong belief within

myself

that I know things are volatile in the

market and in the economy but my goal as

much as possible is just to be long-term

right

I think anybody wants that any

self-respecting man or woman wants to

just be right over the long term

right I think what what happened in

January of

2022 and how we've set up for the

long-term future will end up proving to

be right there is a reason I have

structured my actively managed ETF in a

specific way there's a reason for that

and there's also a reason I've made very

little changes to it

but my belief is that the Federal

Reserve very soon is going to

wield the

sword a flexible average inflation

targeting very

soon I think that layoffs are going to

mount to such a level and GDP growth is

going to mount to such a level that the

Federal Reserve will really face no

choice but to print money yes it's a

giant Ponzi scheme listen we're going to

drop an interview soon with Lauren

Southern okay some people are going to

respect that some people are going to

get

pissed but probably this weekend we are

going to drop an interview with Lauren

Southern she is uh I again people are

going to get mad at me saying this but

she's an amazing person uh she like

inside and out everything about her uh

she's great she's beautiful she's

wonderful my Lauren knows this as well

okay so this is not a secret laen

Southern is basically canceled by the

internet she is deemed an alt-right

extremist individual who's like white

people lives matter or whatever like

that kind right like hold the Gay Pride

party outside the Muslim Mosque just to

cause tension kind of style right so

that's inflammatory that's called poke

the bear I've done my share of poking

the bear but my point is Lauren Southern

in person asked me Point Blank and I

wanted to share this because I thought

it was an important moment so we're say

sitting at breakfast she's got one of

her friends her employee and her and me

says

so you know our economies uh and our

governments have been propped up by a

lot of money printing Kevin and uh

you're an econ guy so I want your

opinion um I want to buy a house at some

point because obviously any

self-respecting individual at some point

gets sick of renting and

I want your opinion you know when is

this Ponzi going to collapse because we

can't continue to print money like this

forever and so my response uh sort of

made her jaw

drop and that was that uh first of all I

agree we are in

a bizarre

Ponzi where you can literally print

money

and have people just accept that you

just diluted the crap out of

them it's the hard reality any

libertarian or Austrian Economist right

now is

like God damn I didn't know I like this

annoying guy meet Kevin hell yeah right

on yeah I know uh they're right it's a

Ponzi but this is where I I lose him I

go but it could keep going for 100

years and that's the moment uh Lauren

Southern looked at

me

what

yeah uh I think that whether it's the

manufacturing of the data which I'm not

that jaded I'm very jaded but I'm not

that jaded whether it's the

manufacturing of the data which again I

I I'm not that jaded uh or it's just the

reality of of the economic system we

Face we are going to go into a state

where the Federal Reserve will soon be

announcing and I've been saying this for

two years you know this you know this if

you've been watching the channel and you

wanted an economic perspective you know

this we've been talking about flexible

average inflation targeting it literally

stands for

fate and it is an ironically creepy

statement that I should have faith in

Jame j po

I'm telling you very soon I guarantee it

I guarantee it very soon people are

going to name their children after

Jerome Powell I guarantee it and very

soon people are going to make statues of

Jerome Powell outside of their houses I

guarantee it I guarantee you both of

those things guaranteed 100% guaranteed

call me in a year hold me to

it that's

because I think Jerome Powell will be

able to orchestrate

this soft Landing by turning the money

printer on again and keeping the Ponzi

going the Ponzi of deflation will

actually come upon us TS

Lombard people going to get so mad at me

when I do this

so TS Lombard are uh resident

Bears they actually just did a fantastic

piece uh they did a fantastic piece and

I don't know why I can't find it right

now but uh they had a fantastic piece I

read this while I was flying back

yesterday from Park City Utah boy we

missed we missed a snowstorm by about 20

minutes the airport shut down in Salt

Lake City last night and we would have

been trapped in Salt Lake which honestly

wouldn't have been that bad I love Salt

Lake uh had we not been able to get out

there out of there but TS Lombard

yesterday had a piece again I can't find

it right now but I have it relatively in

memory uh oh actually it's on my phone

TS Lombard had a piece uh that

um deflation is coming but the way they

set it up was very interesting they

argued that the markets might be wrong

again that was their line and I'm like

oh that's that's a juicy headline what

do you mean the markets might be wrong

again the title of the article is

literally is everyone wrong about

inflation again I found

so I had my iPad in the trunk of the

plane okay that sounds really weird but

I'm sorry it's true so I had my iPad in

the trunk and I'm like dang I guess I

only my iPhone so that's why it's not

synced over there but anyway TS Lombard

our resident Bears they argue that

they're two potential realities that

right now consensus is that inflation

will settle at

2% and the other reality is that 2% will

actually either go into substantial

deflation or geopolitics will push us

into a second wave of inflation and so I

thought this story was really

interesting because they basically

expressed that they're frustrated that

consensus is now 2% inflation everybody

thinks we're going back to 2% inflation

we're going to get flexible average

inflation targeting and everything's

good everything's going to be just

fine oops oops well if that happens and

the consensus is indeed

2% what does that mean for stocks well

it probably means people pricing rate

cuts and rates come down okay fine but

but wait wait a minute wait a minute

wait a minute wait a

minute if geopolitics push inflation up

again we're going to have a problem the

Market's going to fall if inflation

tomorrow comes in dirty as in hot we're

screwed okay right now tomorrow we are

expecting 0. 2 on the year-over year uh

sorry uh. 2 on the month over month

three on the month-over-month core 32 on

the month over or the year-over-year and

38 on the year-over-year core and when

we zoom into the core month over month

we can actually get the perfect average

here and find that the average is 0.25

which rounds Up to. 3 so we really want

to get 0. 2 to come in low on

that that's currently the consensus

estimate that's not that's not what JP

Morgan thinks JP Morgan has their own

estimates which will pull that up as

well but my point is

if we get a soft read we're going to get

a market that starts pricing in more and

more rate

cuts and the market might not be wrong

that's the scary part is the market

could be right a capitalistic

economy people forget this nobody be

very clear about this a capitalistic

economy reduces prices what did I

say with all those earnings calls that I

reached uh what that I

mentioned they're all complaining about

falling prices if I didn't make it clear

then all of them are complaining about

prices coming down trying to provide

more value to customers without raising

prices nobody is screaming we can raise

prices right now I do not see a second

wave of inflation coming from earnings

calls that does not mean that could

change that can't change it's entirely

possible that that changes entirely

possible but it's just not what we're

seeing right now

so JP Morgan

obviously has an estimate they always

have an estimate this is not a big deal

okay JY Morgan having an estimate is

literally like screaming that the pope

is Catholic okay duh we know that it's

literally like saying the Mormons like

uh uh you know Diet

Coke so what are their

estimates 5% chance of a 4% read that's

not going to happen that's not Kevin's

estimate

25% chance of a three

yeah that is a good shot but I don't

think so either 45% chance of a 0.2 to3

okay so if I wanted to be safe I could

just tell you right now I think we're

going to have a 70% chance of a

three I don't think

so I don't I don't think

so Kevin's consensus estimate okay and

so when we say consensus and Kevin in

the same sentence it just basically what

Kevin's opinion is okay so let's tell

you what the market is and then I'm

going to write down right here because I

want to be held accountable because

unlike most people on YouTube and I'm

not trying to bash anyone individually

I'm just trying to be real unlike most

people nobody wants to be wrong okay I

don't give a

so these are the numbers for

tomorrow this is the consensus

estimate

all

right so uh which are the core that's

core that's core obviously the bigger

ones are year over year okay you ready

for my

take uh and then we can we can deduce

the year-over year from that just by

doing math but I actually think we're

going to get double twos and just to

keep it simple uh I'm going to

um just give you those two point 2 point

I want you to think like like double

twos so 2.2 is my estimate for tomorrow

uh it's just based on the earnings calls

that we are reading on a daily basis and

and I I'm serious in our course member

live streams we do these every single

day we've done them for over five years

okay of course my live streams have been

out for a while not only do we the do

the companies that we mentioned but many

more and it's really fun I mean the

Celsius today or or whether it's our

Pinterest MasterCard analysis our

Aerospace stock Nvidia Intel Uber

Walmart

deflation uh you know it doesn't matter

ubiquity paler you want to see real

fundamental analysis it's it's freaking

amazing I hope you're there but my point

is I don't think we've seen a market yet

that actually respects the potential for

deflation we are trending towards

deflation I think TS Lombard is right

we're trending towards deflation as a

risk and markets have not priced that in

yet and that sets us up

for

H I'm going to be really clear about

this and I don't think people are going

to believe me

but people are going to think I'm saying

this because like I'm

biased ah well because I have such

exposure to those sectors but it's so

simple you need to buy assets

buy assets not Financial advice okay buy

assets real estate and stocks in 10

years from now when we are facing

negative interest rates you're going to

go why wasn't there someone on YouTube

who said buy assets because they're

going to keep this Ponzi going for 100

years and Lauren Southern's jaw dropped

going what the hell they're going to

keep this Ponzi going for 100 years why

wasn't there anyone on social media

telling me the Ponzi can keep going

everybody's worried about debt and in

the second wave of inflation and fiscal

irresponsibility why wasn't there a

single person telling

me it could keep

going there

was sorry some people are going to be

like man this guy's lost it it's

unhinged

no like I believe so wholeheartedly in

what we're doing that when I meet people

in person and I explain what I believe

is going on in the economy people like

Kevin how can we partner with

you doesn't mean I'm going to be right

but I want to be crystal clear about my

opinion I don't want anybody in the

future saying Kevin wasn't clear about

his opinion we are trending towards

deflation not only are we going to Trend

towards deflation but the closer we get

towards deflation the more the Federal

Reserve is going to print

money and the Ponzi will keep going so

all you Austrian economists who are like

this is effed up you are right and all

of you keynesians who are like they're

going to print money you're also right

you're both right the difference is

asset prices are going to keep going up

in my

opinion I could eat those words but at

least I have the balls to have an

opinion why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser real estate broker and

becoming a stock broker this video is

neither personalized Financial advice

nor real estate advice for you it is not

tax legal or otherwise personalized

advice tailored to you this video

provides generally Iz perspective

information and commentary any

thirdparty content I show should not be

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

and shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purpose

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services which we may benefit from I

personally operate and actively managed

ETF and hold long positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuers other

than house act nor am I presently acting

as a market maker

that's