Trump's Russia Announcement | 100% Tariffs India, China - Punishment

Donald Trump just made his much awaited

for Trump Russia announcement and it's a

little taco-ish. We are now considering

very serious tariffs at about 100%. If

we don't have a deal in 50 days or so.

Once again, it sounds very kind of

classic Trumpian in the tariff world

where maybe it's 100% or it'll be

something else we decide. Maybe we'll

have a deal in 50 days or maybe it'll be

more time. We don't know. But this is

apparently the very major announcement

that we've been waiting for and we just

got it. Now, just to clarify, these are

secondary tariffs which just to again

give remove any kind of clarity issue

here. What that means is they're not

actually tariffs directly on Russia

because we're basically not trading with

Russia anyway. So what's the sense of

tariffing Russia? So secondary tariffs

apply to other countries that trade with

the underlying country that you're

trying to target. Donald Trump says that

countries that trade with Russia would

be subject to a 100% tariff. Now what he

also acknowledges is that the Senate via

Lindsey Graham and others are currently

working on a uh sanctioned Russia act of

2025 and this would include a provision

for up to a 500% tariff on imports from

countries continuing to purchase Russian

oil, gas, uranium or petrol products.

That sanction act would be an official

act by Congress if it were to pass. And

it would give Donald Trump the

opportunity to pause these sanctions for

up to 180 days with potentially 180day

extension. So sort of building in a

little bit of taco into that bill.

Donald Trump was asked, "Hey, why not

just use these Senate tariffs? Why

bother doing your own 100% tariffs?"

Trump says, "Well, you know, 500 is too

much. What's the difference between 100

and 500? At some point it doesn't

matter. And we could do a 100 alone, so

it's good enough. I actually think that

Donald Trump is a little afraid of

leveraging that political uh effort that

it would take to get this sanctioning

Russia act of 2025 passed in a

bipartisan manner because it forces more

Republican legislators, you know,

congressmen, uh, senators, whatever, to

vote for funding the war in Ukraine and

vote for sanctions against Russia, which

could potentially be a midterm problem.

So, I think Trump here suggests, hey,

we'll just do it on our own, maybe,

unless Putin starts to negotiate again.

Now, what's interesting is Donald Trump

says he's almost had a deal four times

with Vladimir Putin. And after every

single time that they thought they

almost had a deal, it's fallen apart.

Donald Trump says the war has to stop,

that 5,000 people are dying per day. I'm

not sure if he meant to say a week, but

even if he meant to say a week, the

numbers are quite flawed based on data

that we're aware of. Trump argues the

numbers are actually not being reported

accurately and that the deaths are

higher than are being reported. But

reported numbers are that we've had

about 250,000 deaths, you know, closer

to over a million casualties, which

would include injuries. That would put

deaths around 202 per day since the war

began, which is obviously a far cry from

5,000 a day. But, you know, anything

over zero is obviously problematic and

sad because that means, you know,

somebody's father, mother, or whatever

is is potentially dying. It's it's

terrible. So, Trump says Ukraine wants

peace and he was sitting with Mark Ruth,

uh, who is the secretary of NATO, and he

really learned from Trump's interaction

in the Oval Office. He bluntly said

thank you, you know, so JD Vance didn't

lean over asking him to say thank you.

Uh and bluntly acknowledged that anytime

there was something that we had to do

like making sure Ukraine wants peace and

making sure the deal with Putin is a

deal that's upheld, he was pretty smart

to say, "We'll make sure of it

together." and he kind of leans over

convincingly towards Trump like we're

going to make it happen optimistic and

we're going to do it together

cooperatively kind of brilliant. I mean

that's almost kind of the way you have

to play Trump. So Mark really uh he

learned from how not to play Trump which

was the Zalinski meeting, right? But

that was on public display for everyone

to learn from. So anyway, uh so why 50

more days? Donald Trump responds to a

question of why 50 more days and says,

"Oh, that's a very short time. This is

Biden's war. But the reality is 50 more

days at, you know, Trump's numbers is

another 100,000 deaths. 50 more days at

current numbers is another 10,000

deaths. That's a lot. That's a lot of

dead people. So, it is interesting that

we're using sort of dangling this threat

because I think it's supposed to come

across as this really powerful message

to Russia that, oh, you know, we're

going to send more Patriot Battle

batteries, you know, anti- missile and

drone defense equipment. we're going to

send more missiles to Ukraine. Uh

Ukraine's going to pay for it. Not sure

if this is sort of like a Mexico is

going to pay for the wall kind of thing.

And then they really didn't. And then

really the way Trump argued that the

Mexican wall was paid for was through

tariffs on certain commodities and goods

uh that were being imported from Mexico

and sort of justified like, well, we

collected money here, so that basically

paid for the wall. I wonder if that's a

way of saying, oh, well, the tariffs

that we're getting from other countries,

that's paying for these weapons. That's

unclear. But what Donald Trump does

reiterate uh is,

hey, we want to get a deal done and if

we don't get a deal done within 50 days,

then uh we're going to have secondary

tariffs. Now, if we had 50 days uh let's

see uh from today. So, let's do 50 days

from today, it should be Yeah. Okay. So,

that would be about September 2nd. So,

we kind of have another little catalyst

on the clock, which is interesting

because August 1st is only about 2 weeks

away. That's crazy to say. I can't

believe we're already in August in 2025,

but August uh which which is also wild

because we've got our AI announcement

coming up for House Hack, which will be

great because we'll probably set a date

for ending our funds fundra as well

because if our AI work really catches

wind the way we think it will, then uh

then our valuation, knock on wood,

changes substantially. But anyway, um,

so 50 days from today, September 2nd, a

Tuesday, which is roughly a month after

the August 1st terrace. So again, more

kind of drama in the way of like what

dates and what taco, you know, how far

are we kicking the can down the road.

Uh, but uh, he says that Putin knows

what a fair deal is and we have a chance

here to get a deal done and make it

happen and and hopefully he can through

this sort of threat of secondary

tariffs. Just so you know practically

how this would work is you'd basically

say, "Hey, China, your 55% tariffs are

going to go to 100% if you keep trading

with Russia." Now, I don't think Trump

actually really wants to do that because

right now we have guard rails for a 55%

tariff on China and China being willing

to export us rare earth minerals for the

next 6 months, which is really only

about 5 months left. China could

potentially U-turn on some of the deals

or progress that China is making in the

event China ends up getting a 100%

tariff because remember it's not Russia

that's going to pay the tariff. Russia

technically doesn't pay any of the

tariffs. It would be countries like

India and China and it's basically sort

of you turning on the progress you

potentially have already made if any

with India and China. I mean, China, a

little bit of progress. Uh, and and

really you're just amplifying the trade

war by mixing in another uh factor,

which is now Russia coming to the table.

Because the way you could think about it

is if Russia's just stubborn and guess,

yeah, whatever. I don't care about the

100% tariffs on China, then we basically

double our tariffs on China.

And China had nothing to do with it. Uh,

but, you know, China would end up

responding. So, part of me also wonders

if there is some anxiety now to start

supplying these weapons to Ukraine. Uh,

because maybe not only is Russia getting

more aggressive and there's more death

happening in Ukraine now than

previously, but I wonder if there's some

fear that Ukraine is starting to lose.

Now, that's speculation. I'm just saying

like this aggressiveness from Trump all

of a sudden uh potentially comes because

of a lack of action over the last six

months. allowing or enabling Putin to

kind of get gains. But it also makes me

wonder like are are intelligence

analysts, you know, basically sending up

memos to the top of the CIA brass who

gets on the phone with Trump and says,

"We're getting effed in Ukraine. You

really need to get this done. We don't

have a lot of time left." uh and and

that's where we're coming up with this

bizarro 50% or 50dayish

tariff you know uh imposition of 100%

secondary tariffs I don't know find it

very interesting so somebody writes here

is oil included in the secondary tariff

well I mean oil is actually the

precursor to what determines uh the

tariff so uh basically if countries buy

oil from Russia then the countries that

buy that oil get 100% tariff. So to

answer your question, it's yes, it's

just a little it's like the oil is not

getting tariffed 100%. It's anybody who

buys the Russian oil gets the 100%

tariff. So if Germany is like we are

going to buy Russian oil, then

technically German tariffs would go up

to 100%. So that BMW would cost you a

lot more. That's roughly the way the

secondary tariff would work. It's kind

of like a derivative, you know? It's

it's like if this happens to the

underlying, this happens uh to the

derivative. That's just sort of the way

to look at it. Some reports that North

Korea offered to send 30,000 additional

troops. I saw that as well. Yeah, North

Korea is is uh definitely sending a lot

of uh folks to support Russia. Some of

them died in Russia when when Ukraine

was uh invading a portion of Russia.

Uh so then you've got uh let's see here.

Uh, we do pay the tariff, but we buy

less of the products. The tariff,

somebody else writes, "Sinskinsky is a

dictator in my honest opinion." Uh,

let's see.

Uh, EU is buying Russian LG through

India. Well, I mean, that's sort of an

idea too is that there's just sort of

repackaging of liqufied natural gas and

oil through other countries. But again

the idea here is that if India is

importing even natural gas liqufied

natural gas in this case LG then uh you

would end up having a 100% tariff on

India which we've heard for months now

that a trade deal with India is just a

week away and it's about to be announced

and it never ends up actually getting

announced.

So I don't know somebody here writes you

understand no matter what the United

States pays the tariff right the impact

of foreign trade uh is made on the fall

in demand of whatever the consu Yeah I

mean there there are many ways you pay

for tariffs they could uh be corporate

margins they could also be frankly just

currency adjustments like the dollar

falling can offset some of the impact of

uh uh you know tariffs there you know it

could show up in employment it could

show up in some inflation it could be a

mix of all of these things. It It's not

It's not immediately clear where tariffs

end up showing up. So, uh, will tariffs

go up with

I'm not sure exactly what you're saying,

but yeah, basically the idea here is

Russia

better make a deal in 50 days, otherwise

we get more tariffs on China, which

isn't great. and because China loves the

cheap Russian oil, uh, and

more commitment from Trump that we're

going to get more weapons to Ukraine to

sort of help minimize the advancing

strength of Russia. So, you're trying to

hit them in two ways. I think what

they're trying to say is over the next

50 days, we're going to show you how

much we're supporting Ukraine. It's

going to be so much harder for you to

make any more progress. Uh although I do

think Putin stepped up his war effort in

the void of Trump not sending weapons on

purpose. Uh but now they'll ramp up

again. Uh as well as uh you know try to

bring Putin to the negotiating table. I

don't know that Putin will care. Like I

have I have a dirty feeling that Putin's

going to go not my problem. I don't care

if China has to pay 100% tariff because

see Putin's kind of like a 40 chess kind

of person. He's going to go, "If you end

up imposing 100% tariffs on India or

China for buying our oil, your stock

market could fall and then people are

going to be pissed at you, Trump." So, I

think Putin just has to play a bit of

the waiting game. And I'm not trying to,

you know, side with Putin. I'm just

saying this is this is what I think

Putin would end up doing. That that's my

take. So, we'll see. We will see. But

there's one thing that you will always

have certainty over and that is that

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>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

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>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.