I'm Buying

Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.

Hope you're doing well. I'm incredibly

excited for today's video because

Bitcoin has finally entered the cheap

region. Now, this is something we've

been patiently waiting for for nearly 3

months now, ever since Bitcoin broke its

50we moving average back in November of

last year after holding above it for the

entirety of the bull market. And we took

that as a major warning sign because

bulls were able to defend that level in

April of 2025 during the tariff drama.

in August of 2024 during the Japanese

yenary trade implosion and in October of

2023 when the SEC went after Coinbase

and Binance. So once Bitcoin broke below

it, we flipped from being bullish to

being bearish after being bullish for

the entirety of the bull market and we

started talking about saving dry powder

and preparing to accumulate in the cheap

region. And this isn't new. The exact

same thing happened in 2022. Bitcoin

broke the 50we moving average after

bulls defended it in September of 2021

and in July of 2021, but because of

narratives, nobody wanted to take the

weakness seriously. And this time around

was the exact same thing. The

invalidation was a very clear sign of

weakness, but most investors just clung

on to the narratives and didn't want to

believe the price action that was

happening right in front of them. We

also spent weeks talking about how the

relief rally was likely just a sentiment

reset back to neutral before Bitcoin

made new lows the same way we spent the

entire bull market talking about

sentiment resets before making new

all-time highs. And it's not surprising

that many investors are starting to get

extremely fearful here because most of

them were not expecting Bitcoin to go

this low and still fully believe that

the bottom was in and that we were still

in a bull market. And now the average

Bitcoin ETF buyer is underwater on their

ETF purchase. As you can see here, we're

really starting to see some capitulation

in these ETFs, which is usually a good

sign of a local low like what we saw

back in around November and what we saw

back in March and April of 2025. The

same way huge inflows tend to be a big

sign of FOMO and a potential looming

local top. And this becomes even easier

to see once we zoom out and take a look

at the Bitcoin US spot ETF balances

denominated in Bitcoin. As you can see,

the balances flatline whenever price

corrects and they rise rapidly when

price rallies and makes new all-time

highs. Flatline, rally, and now we're

flatlining once again with some

capitulation as well. But I do believe

these will still continue to absorb a

ton of supply in the long term. In terms

of Bitcoin monthly returns, February is

off to a rough start, down 3%. But it

wouldn't surprise me if this month ends

up closing green because we are starting

to get a bit overextended to the

downside after January, December,

November, and October were all red. So

given the fact that Bitcoin is now

approaching the center of our cheap

region, what's my plan over the next few

weeks? Over the next few weeks, I'm

going to be slowly deploying cash and

buying Bitcoin while we're in this

region, knowing full well that we could

go to the very cheap region. So, I'll be

saving some dry powder specifically for

that area. But, it isn't guaranteed that

we go there. And that is the exact same

mindset that saved me in 2025 when I

kept taking profits in the expensive

region, even though I wanted to take

most of them in the very expensive

region, but that ended up not happening.

So, we'll see how price action develops

in 2026, but it does feel great to

finally be able to buy Bitcoin at these

prices. And that's exactly why Monday's

free weekly report was called It's

Finally Cheap. And in terms of my

portfolio changes this week, as I said

earlier, I bought some Bitcoin on Monday

morning. But I did not buy any Ethereum

or Salana because those allocations are

already as high as I want them to be for

this current market environment. So, I

will continue to deploy cash weekly

until my portfolio reaches my desired

allocation. So, you can subscribe to the

free weekly report if you want an update

to my portfolio every Monday when I make

changes. And as always, if you'd like to

learn more about my portfolio automation

system or mental models I use to

navigate this market or common mistakes

I see so many investors making, you can

check out the crypto enjoyers program

and community in the video description.

In terms of our Bitcoin scenarios, I do

expect a sizable relief rally to happen

from this area because Bitcoin spent

nearly 8 months consolidating in this

price region. And usually the longer an

asset spends consolidating at a price

region, the stronger the bounce once it

gets retested. Which is why I wasn't

expecting that strong of a relief rally

this time around. But I do expect a

stronger rally once we retest the low

70,000s and high 60,000s like we are

right now. It also wouldn't surprise me

if Bitcoin ended up front running the

200week moving average because so many

investors want to buy there the same way

we talked about it front running the

50week moving average because so many

investors wanted to derisk and sell

there. Front running the 50week moving

average created a bunch of panic for

investors that wanted to sell there. And

I think front running the 200week moving

average would create a bunch of FOMO for

investors that were holding off waiting

to buy there and are now watching price

move higher. And this chart provides an

excellent visualization of what I was

referring to. Here on the right, we have

the volume profile, which shows you how

much volume was traded at every price

level. And as you can see here,

according to the volume profile, Bitcoin

spent very little time trading between

80K and 70K because we essentially

teleported through that price area post

election in November of 2024. And that's

why we saw a weak relief rally and we're

now taking the elevator down. But as you

can see, as we start getting to the low

70,000s and high 60,000s, that aligns

with that 8-month consolidation period,

and it should act as very, very strong

support. And now, this also aligns

nicely with what we're seeing from the

Bitcoin 1-day RSI being the most

oversold since 26K in October of 2023.

Now, assets can remain oversold for an

extended period of time, the same way

they can remain overbought for an

extended period of time. However, when

you combine it with the extreme fear in

market sentiment and Bitcoin approaching

a major support area, it does seem like

the likelihood of a strong bounce is

very high. So, when the RSI is this

oversold, it tends to coincide with

local bottoms. In terms of other sources

of confluence, it's time to bring back a

fan favorite, Bitcoin CME gaps. Now, I

know these are a bit of a meme, and I

don't think we have to fill this gap

immediately. However, the CME gaps tend

to represent weekend FOMO or panic and

price usually goes back and fills those

gaps. In bull markets, we tend to leave

behind CME gaps during weekend rallies,

but then we always come back and fill

them. We saw that happen every single

time. The biggest one being the

postelection CME gap we talked about for

months and months and months and many

people did not believe we could go back

there when everybody was talking about

strategic reserves and a 100k Bitcoin.

But what do you know? We ended up going

back there and filling the gap. And

during last weekend's sell-off, we left

behind a CME gap once again, which

aligns with everything else we've

covered so far that point to a bounce

for Bitcoin. And here's what that CME

gap looks like when zoomed in on the

hourly chart. It's about a $6,000 gap,

which I believe has a high likelihood of

being filled over the next month or two.

And that brings us to something I have

been getting a lot of questions about

and see a lot of discussion over and

that's the ISM manufacturing PMI hitting

the highest level since 2022 and how the

business cycle means Bitcoin has to go

higher. As you can see here, we've seen

a bit of a spike up recently, reaching

levels we haven't really seen in nearly

four years. However, I put more weight

on price action and technicals than I do

on fundamental because fundamental

arguments like the business cycle are

very hard to validate and can take a

very long time to play out. Whereas

price action reflects current reality

and how investors are actually voting

with their money. A perfect example of

this is when I flipped bearish when

Bitcoin broke its 50we moving average,

but I was absolutely roasted in the

comments section because of people

saying we can't go lower due to

institutions and the business cycle. And

the same thing happened once again when

Bitcoin had the false breakout. It was a

clear sign of weakness because bulls had

their chance to break out, but bears

still maintained control. And we said

there was a high likelihood we revisit

the range low. However, most investors

didn't want to believe it and still

believed we were in a bull market

because institutions were here and the

business cycle. And now we have a range

breakdown and Bitcoin is still showing

signs of weakness. But many investors

are choosing to ignore it because

they're convinced the business cycle is

going to send Bitcoin to new all-time

highs next month. But the good news is

that I don't expect 2026 to be a 2022

style repeat. Notice how last cycle we

took the elevator up and the elevator

down because there was minimal

consolidation between 20K and 30K. So

price just teleported through it.

However, many people are expecting that

to happen again. But this time around,

we took the stairs up and have these

extended consolidation periods where

price is most likely going to find

support. And speaking of finding

support, the Bitcoin and Ethereum

Treasury companies seem to be on life

support here. January, they had less

purchases than December, and February is

likely going to be a lot worse. I know

we're early in the month, but judging by

the fact that Bitcoin is now trading

below Strategy's average cost basis of

76K, it's going to be very hard for

Sailor to issue new shares to buy

Bitcoin. I wanted to show Strategy's

purchase history, but this site seems to

have this funny animation for today.

Since it's Michael Sailor's birthday, so

happy birthday, Michael Sailor. As you

can see here, Strategy is able to issue

a ton of shares and buy a ton of Bitcoin

during bull markets because the stock

trades at a premium, but during bare

markets, it's crickets because they

can't issue shares and buy Bitcoin when

they're trading below premium. And now

that Bitcoin's price is trading so close

to their average cost basis, Strategy

may be trading at a discount to NAV for

a while. and their recent $75 million

purchase may be an early sign that they

are starting to run out of room to issue

shares and buy a bunch of Bitcoin here,

especially comparing to the billions of

dollars they used to buy every week back

in early 2025. Things don't look great

right now with Strategy trading below

the 200E moving average. It will most

likely get a relief rally alongside

Bitcoin whenever Bitcoin decides to

bounce. But I believe the major

outperformance days are behind it. And

as if seeing how it worked out for

strategy wasn't enough, Binance seems to

be buying $100 million of Bitcoin from

their $1 billion Safu stable coin fund.

I don't know why they're doing this. I

feel like they already have enough

exposure to Bitcoin as it is by being a

Bitcoin exchange, but they want to

improve the brand's image or something.

So, they're trading stable coins for

Bitcoin, but it's pretty weird to do it

at this phase of the cycle where they

might have to hold through more

downside. And speaking of more downside,

we'll see what Bitcoin decides to do

over the next few weeks, but I am

expecting a strong bounce from this

area. A strong bounce is what this

recent uptrend in the GLI is pointing

towards. However, you guys know I put

more weight into price action than these

fundamentals. So, I would want to see

Bitcoin show some signs of strength

before assuming it's going to start

following the GLI once again like it did

throughout 2023, 2024, and 2025. So,

we'll keep a close eye on this, but I

don't want to get too excited until

Bitcoin actually proves itself.

Especially because the US dollar still

looks quite strong after the false

breakdown it had last week. And you guys

know how seriously I take this signal.

False breakdowns in the US dollar almost

always result in strong relief rallies.

And I don't know why this time would be

any different. And this usually puts

downward pressure on the GLI. And the

market continues to price in just two

rate cuts for 2026. So, that's keeping

the dollar pretty stable. But two rate

cuts is going to be pretty tough on the

economy and markets because investors

are expecting quite a bit more rate

cuts. But we don't have a lot of clarity

on what path the new Fed chair is going

to want to take. So as he does some

interviews and provides some commentary,

we'll have more insight into what

direction the Fed may go once the new

chair takes over and whether or not

Powell decides to stay on the committee,

but it is likely that QE is not going to

happen as aggressively and as quickly as

most investors currently hope. In terms

of real GDP, the Q4 estimate is still

above 4% and that's after we've had

positive readings the past three

quarters. So, it doesn't look like

recession is around the corner for now.

The unemployment rate continues to

slowly increase, but we have not seen a

huge spike quite yet. We do have an

important update to this data point on

Friday. So, markets will be watching

that closely. Continuing jobless claims

remains quite flat. So, we're not seeing

a huge increase in the number of

unemployed people. Same thing with

initial jobs claims. No big spike in

layoffs quite yet. So, it doesn't seem

like a recession is happening anytime

soon. Inflation is still quite stubborn

with PCE at 2.8% and core PCE at 2.8% as

well. But TruFlation, a third-party data

provider that uses more modern tools to

measure inflation, says that inflation

has been falling off a cliff recently,

and maybe we can see that carry over

into CPI, which would give the Fed room

for more rate cuts, and more rate cuts

would be great for markets and the

economy. In terms of precious metals,

gold and silver still look like they

found a major local top here and will

need to spend months and months and

months consolidating at the very least.

The S&P 500 continues to chop sideways

and does seem to be overdue for a

pullback, especially when you take a

look at the global investor sentiment

being at the highest since July of 2021

back when we had another major S&P 500

correction in the summer of that year.

Doesn't mean this has to happen

tomorrow, but it does seem like we're

overdue for a bit of a pullback and

sentiment reset in traditional markets.

And perhaps Bitcoin is just leading the

S&P 500 to the downside like it did in

2022 and like it did in 2018, both of

which happen to be midterm years, just

like the one we find ourselves in today.

So, we'll see what happens for both

Bitcoin and traditional markets over the

next few weeks. But our long-term

debasement trade remains fully intact.

But that doesn't mean there won't be

corrections and downturns. will have to

risk manage along the way to hold

through our long-term thesis. As for

Ethereum, we said rejection at the range

mid would probably send it back to the

range low, and we said it losing the

range low would send it back to its old

range high at about $2,000. That has

been a very pivotal support and

resistance level for Ethereum over the

past 5 years. So, it is an area of

interest where Ethereum might find a

bottom, of course, depending on when

Bitcoin decides to find its local

bottom. It's nice to see that the

onchain data agrees according to the

Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing

bands. This is where Ethereum bottomed

in the 2022 bare market and in April of

2025. We also used it as confluence to

take profits in July and August of 2025

because it was saying Ethereum was

expensive. We're also starting to see

ETF buyers beginning to capitulate here.

And Bitine is now down nearly $7 billion

on their Ethereum purchases. And if you

look at why, you can see similar to

strategy, they can only issue a ton of

shares at a premium when the market is

really excited and euphoric. And then

when prices are cheap, their purchases

get smaller and smaller until eventually

they have no more premium to issue

shares. And all they can do is just sit

on their holdings and hope for a

recovery. As for Ethereum, Bitcoin, it's

trying to hold support at the range mid.

We continue to follow the pattern we had

in 2020 last cycle where we sold off

bounced off the 50we rejection at the

20we capitulation and then recovery sell

off bounce off 50we rejection at 20we

capitulation. Now we just want to wait

for evidence of a recovery before

assuming that Ethereum has bottomed

against Bitcoin but it is still way

higher than where it was in April of

2025. However, it's also lower than

where it was earlier in 2024 2023. So,

it's hard to tell if this was just a

bounce and mean reversion before making

new lows on the Bitcoin pair or if it

can hold the range mid here and continue

higher and get above the major pivot

level. Only time will tell, but I'm not

that pessimistic on Ethereum because of

how low it already is on its Bitcoin

pair. And interestingly enough, we're

seeing a similar story with altcoins.

The altcoin season index is sitting at a

45. So, it seems as though Bitcoin is

mainly dragging the market down and

altcoins are holding up pretty decently

compared to Bitcoin. And perhaps that's

because the Russell 2000 broke out and

has been able to maintain its breakout.

No major signs of life from the altcoin

market quite yet, so it's hard to tell

who's leading who as of right now, but

I'll be keeping a close eye on this

relationship over the next few weeks. It

does look like the altcoin market is

going through a cleansing period and

hopefully we get some new exciting

innovation out of it because right now

we are losing the battle for capital

with AI. Whether it's investors, funds,

family offices, investors are picking AI

and its real world use cases over

altcoins and crypto right now aside from

maybe stable coins and some DeFi stuff.

And I think this article is a perfect

example of everything that's currently

wrong with our industry. Bed Bath and

Beyond to acquire tokens.com in

tokenized real estate push. Apparently,

the retailer plans to build a platform

for tokenized realworld assets,

expanding beyond e-commerce after its

2023 bankruptcy. I don't know who asked

for tokenized real estate from Bed Bath

and Beyond, but that is the pivot they

are making, and they're buying

tokens.com to make it happen. As for

Salana, we talked about how losing a

2-year range was an incredibly

concerning sign of weakness, and it has

been selling off ever since. But we do

have an area of interest at $80 here,

which is the 2024 low. So, I'll be

paying close attention to how it reacts

at those prices. The fundamentals

actually look pretty good. Fees are up

to 25 million, up 81% over the past 30

days. Transactions at 2.3 billion over

30 days, and active addresses at 97

million. I know there's some bot stuff

in here as well, but in this asset

class, Bitcoin tends to set the

direction. So, even though Salana is

doing okay in terms of its onchain

activity, it's still being dragged down

by Bitcoin's price action. Its ETF

inflows are also still pretty quiet,

just a couple million dollars here and

there, and it seems to be breaking down

on its Bitcoin pair as well. But

compared to many other assets in this

asset class, it's still well above its

Bitcoin pair low from the bare market.

And not many altcoins can say that

performance of these assets versus our

benchmarks over the past year continues

to look pretty terrible. But as we look

forward, the federal government

continues to run massive deficits. That

trend seems to be worsening year after

year. Exponential debt growth results in

exponential money supply growth as that

debt has to get monetized, which

devalues the fiat currency and acts as a

bullish tailwind for valuable risk

assets like the S&P 500 and fixed supply

risk assets like Bitcoin. There's bare

markets along the way, but the longterm

trajectory is clear. We just have to

navigate the volatility and survive long

enough to actually see it through. But

as always, let me know what you expect.

Thank you so much for the support on the

recent videos. Thank you so much for

watching and I'll talk to you