Major WARNING *Just* Issued | Catalysts & WW3 Risk THIS Week [Fed, Iran, Inflation].

this week is expected to be absolutely

crazy with the potential for war in

Israel expanding with a massive attack

coming from Iran with Now new

information suggesting the attack could

be occurring between August 12th which

is tomorrow Monday you might even be

watching this on August 12th uh and

August 16th and Iran's already starting

to Signal movement suggesting exactly

this might happen plus a lot of actual

economic catalysts we want to really be

prepared for so let's go through all of

this in this video the first thing I'd

like to bring your attention to is the

following from the Department of Defense

they indicate that there's a call out of

a phone call which sort of implies a

transcript but it's really just sort of

like a little memo uh between the

secretary of defense of the United

States and the Minister of Defense of

Israel and axios is reporting that after

this phone call Israel is alleging a

larger scale attack is being prepared

right now in Iran in other words maybe

Israel's satellite monitoring or drone

monitoring or their spies or whatever

are noticing more uh Munitions being

delivered to defensive missile Bays or

to offensive missile Bays or maybe uh

attack drones are being moved from side

of hangers to outside and these are the

sort of preparations that are usually

observable from the sky and generally

attacks happen in uh you know from Iran

at night so do remember that you know

right now it's I'm filming this at 8:00

p.m. in California time 11:00 p.m.

eastern time Israel is at 6: a.m. right

now so you've got about a 7-hour spread

there from Eastern time going forward

and a 10-hour spread from California

time going forward so keep that in mind

for when you're thinking about Israel

usually the attacks occur at night which

would be sort of like a late afternoon

for us over here early evening for uh

State side but anyway if you go to this

call out right here this is really

interesting secretary Austin reiterates

the United States's commitment and in

light of escalating Regional tensions

has now ordered the US Abraham Lincoln

carrier strike group basically um

aircraft carrier strike group and they

travel with destroyers and and obviously

other cruise missile uh ships but anyway

uh this strike group they're asking it

to accelerate its transit to the centcom

area this is to go to provide assistance

to a uh an aircraft carrier and strike

group that's already there the Theodore

Roosevelt the Theodore Roosevelt is

expected to be done with its Tour of

Duty soon it's possible that tour might

get extended if there is a larger

conflict and it looks like they're

trying to double up over there which is

kind of interesting uh it does seem like

they're getting a little nervous about

what Israel is seeing and I'm sure we're

observing what Iran is doing as well to

be prepared but it does sound like

something's coming especially since the

secretaries now uh sent the USS Georgia

over there as well this is a guided

missile submarine and that's heading

over to the centcom area so it does

definitely seem like things are getting

a little bit more intense unfortunately

and that the strike May indeed be

imminent again we're expecting it now

between and we've heard stuff like this

before so we just knock on wood and hope

that Iran you know gets talked off a

cliff basically sometimes I feel like

they talk up okay we're going to do it

between the 12th and 16th and it's

really just an attempt to try to

negotiate but what I thought was really

interesting is Hamas was being sort of

asked to negotiate with Israel a new

ceasefire deal uh at a meeting on August

15th and now they've refused to enter

those negotiations which isn't good uh

on top of that it's worth noting that

Ohio class submarine is armed with

150 Tomahawk land Tac cruise missiles uh

and that has been uh immediately

repositioned from its location in the

Mediterranean that's the USS Georgia

this what's C crazy about that is these

Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles the

they're not defensive weapons they're

we're going to blow the crap out of you

Iran and the reason people are nervous

about that which obviously geopolitical

nervousness can often lead to short-term

sell-offs and markets they're often

actually by the dip opportunities unless

of course you're walking into a

recession you know like if you bought

the dip after Russia invaded Ukraine you

know we still sold off for another four

months because markets didn't really

botom until the summer to fall of 2022

you if you bought after the 20

2001 uh you know 911 attacks you were

basically buying into the dotcom bubble

so usually geopolitical doesn't really

move the market in a way that uh is

lasting It's usually the underlying

currents that hold lasting you know

either pain or or Euphoria for markets

but uh you know some people are going

to expect a lot of volatility in the

event that uh you know there is a strike

from Iran not mostly because we don't

think we're going to be able to ward off

the attack from Iran but the question of

what happens if Israel gets pummeled for

so long it's the time that's going to

matter here right the strike could start

within the next four four days uh but

what if it lasts 3 months and then all

of a sudden Iron Dome Munitions run out

and people start running out of food in

Israel or

uh Israel decides that they've gotten

pushed so much to the edge and the

United States isn't helping Israel

enough that they end up launching a

nuclear like a strategic nuclear weapon

against Iran Israel has nukes they're

expected to have at least 200 nuclear

weapons uh so uh you know this this is

this is tricky I think this is exactly

why the United States is moving a

submarine with 150 Tomahawk land attack

cruise missiles to the region because

they're like all right if Israel is

going to you know to yoink out the nuke

uh let's at least use our tomahawks

first but then the problem is if if Iran

is getting pummeled to crap so

badly what happens if Russia steps in

you know we've already seen this uh

these these talks about potential

Russian Uh Russian air defense uh

Munitions getting sent to Iran see

here's one from literally the Moscow

times now keep this in mind this is also

coming from the New York Times so this

has been reported in Us Media

everybody's basically saying the same

thing so but anyway the idea is that

Russia has started sending Advanced Air

Defense systems and radar uh systems to

Iran as Iran threatens to retaliate for

the Israeli assassination of hamas's uh

you know political leader the New York

Times reported on Monday uh and so this

isn't good because it shows you

that this is more than just Iran this is

potentially Iran and Russia

and then potentially North Korea maybe

even China could get involved so not

great this this is where a lot of people

are really worried about the potential

for World War III I mean Donald Trump

reminds us of this on almost a daily

basis and his campaign speeches so this

attack is expected to be larger uh and

potentially lasting many many days to

even potentially weeks and it does look

like the you know while there was an

initial thought all right the threat

imminent okay Iran isn't doing anything

maybe cooler heads are prevailing

they're backing down now all of a sudden

it looks like oh gosh here it goes

they're moving stuff into position it

looks like it's actually coming this

week I don't know I mean I was on edge

all last week and nothing happened knock

on wood I don't I we don't want anything

to happen but it is going to be a risk

factor this week and that comes on top

of all the other catalysts that we've

got going on so well let's go through a

little bit of the calendar here and then

we got to talk inflation a little bit so

Catalyst we watching uh oh yeah okay

well Monday we got monday.com that

reports earnings that's pretty much it

PPI producer price inflation on Tuesday

is expected to come in at 2% across the

board you get about 33 estimates here

both median and averages come out to. 2%

standard deviation of just 8% so you're

not really expecting a hot report here

really any kind of big big movement uh

same thing for CPI we got 0 2% expected

across the board 48 estimates average

estimate is .19 standard deviation of

only 0.4 so this really suggests that

markets are expecting inflation to come

in either at expectations or

low personally I think there's a good

chance CPI PPI coming low I don't

actually really think inflation is that

huge of an issue right now anymore

obviously prices are still high I'm just

saying new inflation uh and the closer

you get to 1.6 to 1.7 the better because

if you multiply that by 12 you get to 2%

and that's what you want that annual

number and you especially want that

because Bowman was yapping this weekend

uh she says that inflation remains

comfortably above our 2% Target that she

will remain cautious and that much of

the unemployment we've been seeing has

been due to weaker hiring not

necessarily because of high layoffs this

is true usually layoffs come like

halfway through a recession so it's kind

of a lagging indicator anyway but the

question here that I have is if she so

concerned about inflation still she

somewhat suggests a bias of the fed

towards a 25 BP cut rather than a 50 so

a lot of people are thinking the fed's

going to give us a 50 incept I don't

think so in fact she even went as far as

saying that uh oh yeah here was she's

not confident that inflation will

decline in the same way as it did in the

second half of last year so the second

half of last year which is what we're in

now you know the July to December period

inflation really plummeted she doesn't

know or doesn't have the confidence that

that's going to happen happen so you

definitely have some dissent over at the

FED in terms of how quickly you're going

to move on cutting rates I know that a

lot of people are like oh when the FED

starts cutting rates the market

crashes part part of the reason you get

stuff like that is because people post

charts like this I mean I've been

addressing this chart for years and uh

it's really misleading because what

they're doing is they're purposefully

just looking at recessionary Cuts but

there are two types of cuts there are

recessionary cuts when yes the market

collapses because of recession uh and

then there are not recessionary Cuts

Like what we had over here in the mid

90s your sort of mid90s soft Landing I

mean you had you had Cuts over here and

five years basically of no recession

after Cuts began and they happen to just

leave that totally blank that soft

Landing because it ruins their narrative

and the stock markets skyrocketed during

those 5 years so uh you

know whatever you know people want to

spread their their fearmongering I guess

I you know I I'm just a believer that it

makes a lot of sense I hear people on

both sides here some people are like

look just buy the dip go all in other

people kind of like the positioning that

we've taken is uh it's not a suggestion

or recommendation it's just telling you

what we've done so it's it's just very

clear and and unbiased here uh net long

in the market but definitely hedged with

options for especially like this week uh

but probably will stay that way going

into the election uh and you know kind

of kind of reducing exposure as well or

or have reduced explo exposure I I don't

think uh there're any plans to reduce

exposure anymore at this point kind of

see as the data comes in but uh

certainly have increased cash and sort

of trimmed uh at some of the higher

valuations but again that's all

historical stuff so we'll see how this

data plays out uh so another thing that

you're seeing people talk about is this

you know question of hey where did this

bad jobs report where did these bad job

numbers come from for the uh July report

and Nick T was talking about this a

little bit he uh quoted Goldman Sachs

and who suggested that 70% of the rise

in July unemployment came from temporary

layoffs with no big jump in Texas which

you may have expected from Hurricane

Barrel the biggest layoffs were actually

in Leisure and Hospitality Education and

healthc Care and what I align this sort

of with what we're seeing in the rest of

the market and also what Goldman Sachs

elsewhere noted they noted that travel

has clearly been deteriorating in the

second half so far you know July

basically is the first part of the

second half Airbnb Expedia Disney

moderation and the question now that

they're asking is is this the

normalization or are we going to go uh

below Trend here are we going to really

slow down the one place obviously we're

still seeing spending like crazy is

artificial intelligence we'll see

Goldman Sachs personally says they well

gold man Sachs I I shouldn't say

personally I mean they're sort of an

institution but anyway Goldman Sachs

suggests that def the defensive sector

like defensive stocks May

outperform uh as they usually do when

the Federal Reserve Cuts I kind of put a

little asterisk on this and suggested

that the problem with defensives is they

they usually rely on pricing power which

a lot of companies don't have right now

people like oh you know defensives could

be like a Costco for example or an aneis

or bush or you know whatever at least

those are consumer defensives and uh

people think uh oh well you know people

got to buy there anyway right but a lot

of those companies have lost so much

pricing power that I I just don't know

if they're going to see that Revenue

growth markets are expecting unless

people are just going to buy the stock

regardless of growth I I I don't know I

don't know that there's really if we do

go into recession I don't really think

there is a safe place in the stock

market at all I I think whatever

whatever exposure you know goes down

because historically that's just what

happens uh gold goes up and all stocks

go down now some stocks go down a lot

more right high growth companies tend to

go down substantially more rapidly you

can see 50 to 90% declines and uh the

defensives like a McDonald's for example

might only go down 15% but who knows you

know past performance doesn't guarantee

what the future is going to hold may

maybe defensives will do well this time

I don't know uh then

um that's when so Wednesday we get that

CPI the bigger one to me is actually

going to be retail sales I think that

one's going to come in really low and

it's going to make people fearful of uh

well frankly a recession so retail sales

are are already expected to grow slowly

at just 0 2% average estimate is

actually even lower than that at just

1.2% that comes out Thursday the day

before the 16th I wouldn't be surprised

for you to just have an ugly Thursday

where like you know if Iran decides to

strike and you get bad retail

sales the markets uh aren going to aren

going to be very very happy uh anyway so

um on Friday you get ghoul spe to speak

uh so we'll see what happens with ghoul

spe he's an interesting one uh he did oh

my gosh I'm getting so many messages I'm

trying to mute this stuff too uh but

anyway gouby was interesting because he

uh he actually ended up chatting on I

think it was Friday or Thursday and he

wasn't as optimistic as I thought you

like I remember when he first kind of

came on the scene you know people joke

they're like oh it's fools again I feel

bad for his last name but uh the last

time he spoke oh it was it was uh on the

5th uh he says that uh we will maintain

Financial stability forecasts are

volatile and we will not respond to the

uh stock market financial markets are

more volatile than the FED uh we have to

pay attention to weakness in jobs but

we're not seeing that yet and then he

said he was asked could the stock stock

market selling off cause a recession uh

and he says it could but it didn't

happen in 2015 so he sort of balances it

kind of

interesting and uh and then he just

reiterates that uh uh employment and

price stability are the only thing that

matter right now not the stock market so

we'll get him again on Friday we also

get University of Michigan consumer

sentiment and inflation expectations

those are generally pretty benign and

boring so I'm not so worried about that

I think really the biggest wild card

this week for me retail sales and what

happens with Iran now I'm also watching

Bitcoin as sort of a leading indicator I

regularly do this uh we we've lost the

617 line and we're kind of this is on

the 30-minute chart and we're running

back over here to

57580 so we'll see which way this goes

to me I like to use this as sort of a

leading indicator of okay you know which

which way might stocks go it doesn't

always work uh so you know back test it

yourself fact check it yourself use it

however you want uh but usually I see

Bitcoin as a bit of a sort of a bearish

leading indicator when it's falling and

I don't know why but uh it it lost its

support uh actually today uh of that

6,700 level that sort of been bleeding a

bit today just got back from uh San

Diego with Lauren which was really fun

if you want to see uh some stories of

the kids by the way make sure to follow

me on Instagram at real meia Kevin and

actually I'm just @ meetkevin on

Instagram and you can follow me on X or

Twitter @ real meetkevin on that one all

right folks thanks so much for watching

good luck this week and we'll see you in

the next one goodbye can not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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