Tesla's Unmitigated Disaster | Tesla Stock & Delivery Crash.

holy molies we have some problems at

Tesla and today I'm going to explain

what is next for Tesla stock let's

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folks let's talk Tesla what's next well

first of all Tesla's actually only down

55% on a disastrous delivery Miss we are

down 13.9% from wall Street's

expectations Troy was off by 5.4% he's

usually off by 3% and basically he

wasn't negative enough we only delivered

89% of the cars we produced and Tesla's

pointing the finger at the Red Sea and

the Highland refresh though and the Giga

Berlin shut down because of the

terrorist attack uh well the envir

enironmental terrorism is what it's

called all of those items affect

production but keep in mind production

was actually positive year-over-year

we're at 433,000 Vehicles so we produced

enough we just didn't deliver enough now

some people are going to point the

finger at that and go ah well you know

they're stuck in transit okay well we're

also getting record high inventories on

both the model y uh and the model 3 so

we're not doing great in terms of Demand

right now now could that be transitory

well that's what we're going to analyze

uh in this video but uh keep in mind the

entire EV sector is facing some pain

right now it's not just Tesla right it's

Neo it's Lucid it's rivan although rivan

did beat on low estimates this morning

they did beat uh it's uh you know Xing

it's BD byd is down 44% quarter over

quarter so the entire EV sector is going

through a phase of adjustment of pain

during covid everybody wanted an

electric vehicle now less so and we are

starting in the market to have to come

to the reality that maybe not everybody

wants an electric vehicle Tesla's

long-term goals of getting to 10 to 20

million Vehicles produced and sold are

predicated on people wanting an electric

vehicle well if people don't want an

electric vehicle maybe they end up

buying a you know a GM or Ford which I

know most Tesla people are like e why e

but people will you know GM and I I'm

not a shill for Chevy Crews at all I

think it's you know mostly kind of lame

you know only works on highways and you

got to keep your eyes on the road or

whatever but it's interesting you are

seeing them purposely try to stab Tesla

how just saw an ad from them Chevy Cruz

while Towing you can't Tow and use FSD

on a Tesla so I again I'm not saying I'd

prefer their system over FSD FSD is

amazing compared to the trash of these

other companies and I want to be very

clear and biased on that okay I'm very

biased towards Tesla FSD it's very good

is it as perfect as people say on you

know Twitter with their video clips or

what no you know I maybe 100 miles in on

1233 and I'm I'm I'm still getting

moments where I'm like

really it shouldn't be doing this uh so

it's not there yet okay we already know

that we already know that I know a lot

of people are like oh when's Wall Street

in a price in FSD how about when it

actually starts producing revenues oh

well now they're giving free trials to

everyone great so you're definitely not

going to produce revenues for the next

60-ish days on FSD you're actually

hurting revenues right now which who

knows maybe that's the perfect by the

dip opportunity but the point is Wall

Street has to come to the reality that

this is the email from Martin right here

we have this posted over at ec.com I

want you not to just look at the uh

median and average delivery figures but

I want you to look at the median and

average delivery figures for 2028 by

2028 we're really only knocking on the

door of about 4 million

Vehicles that's low you know by 2028 we

were thinking that we'd be closer to

well markets a couple years ago we're

thinking oh yeah we'll be at 6 mil 7 mil

we're going to be at 10 mil by 2030 I

don't know I don't know if that's true

now why potentially could it be true as

the market price is in the fear that the

long-term trajectory of Tesla may not be

as good as as people originally thought

well one of the reasons could be uh

politic Co now I want to I want

everybody to pay attention to this this

is this is very

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look here this is what's very important

this is a poll by Gallup now I actually

really like Gallup I think they're uh

generally from what my experience has

been unbiased and I actually think their

data is very good uh so I think this is

a high quality Source this isn't like

CNN or Fox you know where we know

there's going to be the bias if I want

to go to CNN what do you think's at the

top of CNN right now CN CNN.com top of

CNN right now oh right next to Israel

unintentionally killed Aid workers is

Tesla sales plunge H now why would that

be why would CNN promote pain for Tesla

H let's hold that in the back of our

mind for just a moment what do we have

here Americans perceptions of electric

vehicles effect on climate change and

look at this one Americans owner ship of

electric vehicles by demographic group

you ready for this

Republican would not buy an electric

vehicle

71% 71% of Republicans would not buy an

electric

vehicle whereas 54% of Democrats would

consider 22% are seriously considering

and 6% currently owned whereas just 1 %

of Republicans currently own 1% are

seriously considering an electric

vehicle and 26% might consider twice as

many Democrats might consider an

electric vehicle as Democrat as

Republicans and would not consider

you've got about what is that about five

times about five times as many

Republicans would not consider an

electric

vehicle compared to a Democrat now this

is a really big deal this is a very very

big deal and and you'll also notice that

the older demographics would not

consider an electric vehicle somewhere

around 53% versus 25% for the 18 to 34

range uh so you're very clearly seeing

uh electric vehicle adoption is um

younger and more liberal okay now why

could that potentially be a problem why

might it be a problem that electric

vehicle adoption is more liberal well it

would only be a

problem

if you potentially were uh a liberal who

is uh Pro you know climate change and

and preserving the environment and uh

you want to see those priorities

furthered along you want to see more

liberal policies maybe those are

important to your business to your

family to your livelihood there's

nothing wrong with being a liberal now I

know 50% of the world's going to say

yeah there is okay that's because you're

on the right that's okay it's you you

can make up your own mind but the point

is let's let's think for a moment if if

you were a

Democrat and your business or your

livelihood was convinced that being a

Democrat is the right thing what would

you think if the CEO of Tesla said I

think we need a red wave or America is

toast in other words I think unless we

vote Republican America is going to crap

America will die unless we vote

Republican will there be at least one

Democratic Tesla buyer who says I cannot

support Elon Musk because of

that of course we could almost say it is

a mathematical certainty that on the

margin someone will not buy a Tesla

because of this kind of politization by

Elon Musk now some people like to say

but Kevin this is just Elon Musk going

off on Twitter nobody reads all of Elon

musk's tweets you're right and that's

actually the problem see part of the

problem is that people don't read all of

elon's tweets instead they read the

tweets that the mainstream media

promotes ah well what does the

mainstream media promote well the most

viral like MSN Elon Musk breaks with

Democrats Elon Musk thinks we need a red

wave or America is toast Newsmax MSN MSN

Breitbart Blaze media the hill whatever

Yahoo it goes on it goes on it goes

on elon's

most one-sided

tweets

actually become more Amplified because

of their presence in the mainstream

media which then makes people ironically

think that Elon is even more

extreme than he actually is on Twitter

like I don't actually think elon's that

extreme on

Twitter or X as we should call it but

the point is if people can cherry pick

out that I voted 100% demo until a few

years ago now I think we need a red wer

America's toast and that gets Amplified

which then contributes to the front page

of CNN saying Tesla sales plunge far

more than expected and we combine this

with the fact that Elon is essentially

look we could be free speech absolutists

here okay but we two things can be true

we can promote Free Speech but we could

also say that if Free Speech hurts Tesla

it hurts Tesla's Share Price Right both

of those things could be true you could

be a free speech absolutist while saying

a CEO that is partisan hurts Tesla sales

both of those things can be true but the

unfortunate reality is Elon is catering

to

71% of Republicans who would never

consider buying an electric vehicle

anyway that is a sad

reality if Elon purely cared about Tesla

which we know he I'm not saying he has

to okay he has the right to have his

opinions and his free speech whatever

but if he solely cared about

Tesla he would be as they say a quote

flaming liberal and uh pushing for every

single Environmental Policy you can and

you know what he'd probably be Joe

Biden's puppet Joe Biden would be like

please take more of my money because you

are promoting the liberal

agenda right I'm I'm not saying El

should do that I'm just saying if that's

solely what you cared about that's what

you would do but now we have to engage

in the reality that uh Elon doesn't

solely care about Tesla we know that in

fact if you scroll through his X feed

the vast majority is actually not Tesla

it's very rare that Elon actually

engages with Tesla commentary and

generally it's only on full self-driving

because I personally believe that Elon

is facing entrepreneurial

depression entrepreneurial depression

just like really many kinds of

depression is when you feel like things

are outside of your control and you get

anxiety because you want something to be

good but it's out of your control so you

blame the Red Sea you blame the houthis

you blame environmental terrorists you

blame uh you know China and competition

you blame interest rates you point the

finger but every time you point the

finger three fingers point back at

you unfortunately it's depressing and so

what do you do do you engage more in

depressing depressing aspects no as an

entrepreneur you focus on what's fun and

exciting ah SpaceX oh promoting

engagement on

x.com let's make X better let's make

SpaceX better let's make let's do all

all of the other things let's talk about

Disney's diversity uh uh you know

programs let's talk about how nonprofits

are rigged these are all things from the

latest things we hear from Elon let's

talk about the Border crisis everybody

should have the same mindset On the

Border crisis and the Iran the irony

here is everybody agrees that the border

is a disaster Democrats and Republicans

agree the border is a disaster oh great

we have consensus well no we don't

because Democrats and Republicans have

different opinions of how to solve

it uh so

we don't need to get political in this

okay uh I understand people who watch me

are Republican and people who watch me

are Democrat that's my point I try to be

in the

middle but the reality is Elon is

probably recoiling from Tesla and

spending even less time at Tesla because

he doesn't

realize that he himself is part of the

problem now don't get me wrong I'm not

here to say that Elon isn't wonderful

because he's uh given Tesla investors so

much the Tesla the stock has performed

so well he's done so great for the

company you know he he made electric

vehicles mainstream the problem is now

we are at a Do or Die moment and the

fear of the Do or Die gets priced in now

one of the reasons Tesla stock is not

actually down more today like 7 or 10%

on earnings that really didn't tell us

anything we've seen that before is

because we already pre-priced in a lot

of yeah there's probably going to be a

bad delivery number here now they were

way worse than we thought but we're only

down 5.4% on that it's actually not that

bad actually not that bad the problem

now is what happens going forward well

what happens going forward is the

potential for fear the potential for a

lack of guidance on April 23rd when we

get our next earnings called and we get

even less visibility or we get even more

pain or we get even more finger pointing

see now what I want you to think of is

Tesla has been advertising for the

entire quarter and Tesla deliveries

still came in this

bad so imagine if we didn't have

advertising would the numbers have been

350,000 instead of a you know uh 8 to

11% year-over-year decline we're

actually trending towards a 15% decline

without advertising maybe advertising

has actually been a catalyst or or I

should say a ballast for making this not

as bad it's still very

bad now so the question then is is this

the bottom well we won't actually know

what's the bottom until we actually get

back to growth maybe we'll get that

guidance on April 23rd but given the

lack of guidance in the last earnings

call I can't make a bet that we're going

to get that guidance and so what happens

well Wall Street starts pricing in then

maybe the EV fad is over now of course

people are going to argue oh but Kevin

eventually FSD you know will be what

people want to drive and people won't

want to drive a car without FSD this is

true but we are not at that eventually

yet we're still at slow off stop signs

we're still at slow on right uh right

turns we're still at weird behavior in

bike Lanes that's a bad place to have

weird Behavior okay we're still at

clipping curbs with our

tires we're still at doing stupid things

so of course it's supervised FSD we know

that but the point is are people going

to pay $122,000 for that oh of course

not mostly because even if people were

willing to pay $12,000 are they really

now going to pay $112,000 for a new car

or are you going to go look at the used

inventory see that's the other thing

that you have to consider is if you were

to buy a Tesla right now and you really

wanted full self-driving my

recommendation to you would actually be

to buy a used car so I would go into

shop available on tesla.com just you

know do it live and I would look for a

used vehicle that already has FSD

included so I want find that so let's

find we've got a here it is full

self-driving capability okay so here's a

model y 57,000 miles you know that's

it's a little up there it's not horrible

uh but it has full self-driving and so

what you can see here is with 57,000 mil

you're selling for $31,800 here's one

with 46,000 Mi selling for

328 uh this one actually has better

Wheels selling for $1,000 more doesn't

have FSD better Wheels lower mileage

th000 bucks more no FSD it just has

autopilot okay wait a minute so this is

the standard range this is the long

range okay

so that's a difference that would

explain why this is a little bit more

expensive right but the point is even if

these were the model match we're not

getting a lot of value here on FSD let's

try to find another one I want to try to

find a one that's similar to this let's

just comp this out let's go standard

range so we're going to go uh model year

let's go with the 21 model year let's

try to make these as similar as we can

let's go with the five seed version and

then we're going to do autopilot and the

FSD version and then let's go with the

19in wheels and then we're going to go

standard range and so we're going to go

with that's probably our rear wheel

drive and we're going to go white dang

there's a lot of inventory okay well we

I have five so what do we have we have

full self driving that one has full

self-driving all of the others are

autopilot okay so all of these five

listings are I believe within 200 miles

of

93004 so I've got five listings within

200 miles of me uh to choose from I have

all of them are rear wheel drive all of

them are 2021 models all of them are

white all of them have five- seat models

all of them have the 19in wheels they're

exactly the same vehicle the only thing

that is different is this one right here

has full self-driving capability now it

does have 57,000 miles so that is

another difference we're going to get it

does have more mileage give it that the

next closest one is

38,000 and it's actually selling for

Less so we have to kind of do a little

bit of an adjustment here right but the

point is is there a $112,000 difference

well let's say the difference between

20,000 extra miles is worth $3,000 you

know what let's be generous let's say

it's $5,000 so if we're going to adjust

this down we go 318 318 minus $5,000

right it should be a

$26,800 car

$26,800 car well now we're mileage

adjusted for 20,000 M miles I gave a

$5,000 discount all right so now we're

at 30,500

uh minus the what do we say that was the

268 so

268 3500 minus 268 $3,700 so that means

without that means FSD is selling for

about a

$3,700

premium mileage adjusted on exactly the

same vehicle so the market is pricing in

the value of FSD at

$3,700 Elon Musk is selling FSD for

$112,000 that puts us at a difference of

$8,300 You Are overpaying by full

self-driving by

$8,300 $8,300 right now is an

overpayment

of

69%

overpriced is what FSD is right now that

sucks right and

again

71% Republicans will not consider

consider an electric vehicle so we have

to put this data together and go well if

FSD realistically needs to be priced at

$4,000 which I've argued for for a very

long time that's about what the market

goinging rate is then people don't lose

money by buying FFC right now if you buy

FSD you are losing money you're

literally taking 12 and turning it into

four that

sucks 69% reduction um it's very

difficult for Wall Street to say yes yes

we need to price in FSD now don't get me

wrong will Tesla be a competitor in

robotics

sure but what are we selling any now no

are we selling Tesla semitruck barely

how many cyber trucks we selling we

don't

know the lack of clarity creates fear

the fear will put Tesla on the front

page of the mainstream news and

unfortunately you were going to get

write Downs After write Downs After

write Downs go to the front page of the

Wall Street Journal what do you got

Tesla delivery fall for the first time

since the co

lockdowns so what do we do going forward

when is it time to buy the

dip well what we need to do going

forward is in my opinion I want to be

very clear about this we need clear

guidance from Tesla we need a very clear

outline that says look here's our

long-term forecast yes we think we're

going to go through a bump in q1 and Q2

but then as interest rates start

trending down we think we're going to

see sales go

do we think based on our sales

conversions for the cybertruck we're

going to see sales do

this we're no longer at a 50% growth

rate for the next 5 years but you know

what we're at 25% just give us a number

that might put us at a 2.4 Peg or

whatever right now for Tesla talk which

would be a lot better to have that

Clarity than the lack of clarity we have

right now which is oh my gosh if Tesla's

shrinking year over year and we're going

through an earnings recession are we

potentially actually in a situation

where oh no

Tesla's Peg is way higher than we really

think it is so this hurts from a

valuation point of view the fear of the

unknown unfortunately hurts Tesla's

valuation more than if Tesla would just

come out with a very clear road map

here's what we think here are our

projections here are our Targets this is

what we're going towards a guidance B

full self-driving price decline C either

Elon stop tweeting political nonsense

although it's too late the cat's out of

the bag or make this very simple Elon

can still be an innovator he can still

be part of Tesla he get all his stock on

plan everything put a put a CEO in

charge who leads the company that is not

political I'm not here saying oh Elon

shouldn't be involved or whatever you

could absolutely still be involved

shouldn't be the face of Tesla you've

got to separate that and I don't know

that you could really ever accomplish

that I don't know that you could

separate Elon from the face of Tesla

that's very difficult I think the

easiest way to do it quite frankly is

with a spokesperson like Ryan Reynolds

just like the ad that we made I think

you need uh you know the joke ad that we

made which which is removed now but what

you need is a a a a high quality ideally

neutral person that everybody recognizes

who is a spokesperson for Tesla and

Raves about how great the Tesla is in

advertising Tesla's ads right now aren't

doing that Tesla ads right now are

promoting price they're not promoting

the emotion of a of of a spokesperson I

think that's what they're missing I

think they're cheaping out by not

picking somebody like this it could be

anyone heck have Taylor Swift promote

the freaking car everybody loves Taylor

Swift imagine that Taylor Swift here's

why I love my

Tesla and it's Taylor Swift talking

about how safe it is how when she has

kids at some day in the F at some point

in the future or she wants to protect

her cats or what whatever I know I want

the safest vehicle on the road to

protect my kittens right and Taylor

Swift looks over at at you know the

beautiful big eyed cats or whatever that

sells where's the marketing so the style

of ads and

marketing leaves something to be

desired it's unfortunate and I feel

depressed but the reality is uh we saw

this coming so now the question is

where's the bottom well that depends

sure people are going to see this is a

buy the dip opportunity the reality is

we just got a valuation squeeze and

unfortunately that squeeze is going to

keep getting squo until things turn

around and I don't know that we can

really bet on interest rate Cuts helping

Tesla even if we get one or two or even

three rate Cuts this year is it make a

big difference no now the trajectory

might make a difference right which is

good but I'm actually concerned that

we're way overpricing the odds of

getting a rate cut in June you know

markets are at like 50 88.2% right now

odds for June cut I don't think we're

getting one until September or maybe

even later maybe even after the election

it's just my opinion so I don't know

it's challenging I do think in the long

term Optimus Tesla EVS it's the future

but we have a lot of problems to get

through between now and

then and there's a good chance there

will be even better opportunities but so

with that said if you want my Buy sell

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