COMPLETE BS

number is not to be trusted.

>> If what is true?

>> If this story about what's happening

with housing is true,

>> there's a major step down in shelter

inflation. The twomonth pace of shelter

inflation, so that's from September

through October into November, is even

less than the typical one-mon pace that

we saw before the shutdown. It's a

material slowdown and a big part of that

is because October was not reported. So

the shelter index right now is

artificially low.

>> So here's what we know. The data this

morning was a farce. This isn't a

surprise because if you actually look at

the data for the September to October

change or October to November change on

the right for the CPI report, it's

basically blank. And the only things

that we saw were gasoline numbers and

some housing numbers as well as some

transportation numbers. And so a lot of

people are blatantly pissed off saying

these numbers are fully rigged and not

to be trusted, which is exactly what the

Federal Reserve said. To show you the

magnitude of the changes of the data

this morning, take a look at this chart

right here. CPI, housing inflation. The

orange line represents Zillow's kind of

trailing uh uh you know data on the

housing. Now, the reason they lag it by

12 months is to try to align it with the

owner's equivalent rent chart. The

Zillow single family rent data does not

lag by 12 months, but they're telling

you they purposefully lagged it by 12

months to show it align better with CPI

because CPI is always like a year

behind. Right? What's interesting about

this is that the CPI numbers we got this

morning actually show that CPI has now

plummeted below

the Zillow rent index in spite of the

lag already of 12 months. So, they're

somehow catching owners equivalent rent

not only up to Zillow because it even

with a 12-month delay, it still lags.

But all of a sudden, now it's shooting

ahead of the Zillow uh rent index,

showing that rents have actually fallen

below than what Zillow was tracking.

Obviously, this data is extremely sus

and questionable. In fact, when you jump

it over here, what was basically done is

the Bureau of Labor Statistics deleted

the biggest contributor to core

inflation. They just set it to zero for

October. And by setting housing

inflation, the 34% contributor to CPI

inflation, the 25% contributor to PCE

inflation

to zero. They basically said, "Hey,

don't look at core goods rising at a

rate of 1.9%."

You know, in COVID, we were rising at 0%

or pre-COVID, we were rising core goods

prices by 0%. There was no goods

inflation. Instead, let's just set

housing to zero and hide all of this

tariff bump of inflation and call it a

good report. So this morning in my alpha

report, I said, "Hey, uh, I think

there's a good case to be made that

we're going to dump to 607 at open." And

if we hold that, it's good and we could

go on a slow schlog up. Now, why slow

schlo up? Because we don't have any

other catalysts. We have rigged data

between now and mark your calendar for

January 9th and January 13th. That's

when we're going to get jobs and CPI

data for December that hopefully is at

least less rigged. But this data is kind

of the last data that we get for this

year. And we're kind of sitting around

twiddling our thumbs until next year.

This morning we were trading in the

pre-market, you know, right about here

at about 609. And I'm like, watch for a

607 before you do anything. I think

institutions are going to dump this

puppy because they'll look at this data

and go, "This data is bull crap." So

look what happened. dump bounced right

at 607. The literally the line we called

out in the alpha report. We bounced

within 8 cents. Remember, you can get

lifetime access at mekevin.com. Use uh

the coupon code release the app. We

bounce again within 24 cents of the line

and we come again within 51 cents of the

line. So, really critical line here at

607. One uh thing to pay attention to is

Oracle is not catching bids. Oracle was

up about 2.9% this morning on sort of

like a deadcat recovery bounce and it's

actually bleeding out which is bearish

the data centers. Coreweave is having

trouble holding on to that 6847 line now

rejecting it. Look at Oracle CDS's.

Oracle CDS's tell you that private

credit is still an issue. We're still

seeing Oracle credit default swaps rise

not only to the highest level since 2008

but we were already at the highest level

of two since 2008 over here you know

then we went to 140 150 now 156 so the

private credit issue is still a issue we

still need to finance these data centers

if we look at the open AI news we could

see that open AAI is trying now actively

trying to raise tens of billions of

dollars at a valuation of 750 billion

ion dollar. We need this financing to go

through to stick a soft landing. Now TS

Lombard says, "Guys, don't worry.

Everything is fine. The economy is

actually underestimating

how bullish things are going to be."

That's literally what they're saying. TS

Lombard says, "The 2026 consensus is

wrong. The 2026 consensus is that we'll

have steady global growth and a bit of

disinflation and it'll look a lot like

2025."

The problem they're saying is they

actually think we're going to see a

stronger rebound in activity. Now, maybe

that'll be true, but what you have to

get through is you have to get through

labor recession risks and AI bubble

risks. How do you know that we're

getting through those? In my opinion,

Oracle starts rebounding and OpenAI gets

its funding. if Oracle can meaningfully

rebound from this disaster and start

recovering like like let's let's set

some precedents or or some rules of the

game here. Rules of engagement we'll

call them. Okay, let's put this away. Oh

yeah. Uh look at that. Uh my alpha

report holding 607. If we bounce off 607

within the first 12 minutes, bullish.

It's literally what happened. Uh but

again, we're just catalyst light until

Jan 9, right? Which is generally a

bullish thing. So, uh, criteria for,

uh, criteria for bullish. Okay, what do

we need? 607 hold. Uh, we've already

done that three times. Three times

already. Now, we've already done that.

But on top of that, we want Oracle to

catch a bid

and we want OpenAI

to get funding.

As long as these things happen, then we

can we can see a case for hiring and a

soft landing. I mean, I make the

comparison that House Hack is going to

hire two more devs in January. You know,

we're growing our devs because we're

seeing a lot more profitability than

than we expected from our AI. You know,

I got a note this morning that uh our

fund raise over the last week as of the

update from this morning is this number

right here, which we're blown away that

let that focus there that in in a week,

you know, we could do essentially nearly

$2 million of fundraising uh and and the

fund raise closes at the end of the

month. It's crazy to us, but we actually

see it as bullish for AI software and

hiring. So maybe TS Lombard will be

right. See, they think that the weakness

at the bottom of the K will be balanced

out by strength at the top and as long

as big tech keeps investing in AI,

households can keep spending. I agree

with them, but it's the only way data

centers keep spending is if we don't

uh have a financing issue. See, this is

where Bank of America has a podcast and

they actually say that one of the

classic hallmarks of a bubble is prices

becoming unstable as they rise. I mean,

look at the volatility we saw on Tesla.

You know, we get all-time highs 2 days

ago, then we crash 5% today. Today, we

see 4% up again. You know, on the

bounce, we're seeing a lot of

volatility. Now, they say the volatility

so far has been constrained to sectors

like nuclear and quantum, which

typically we see volatility rising as

prices go up. We've seen this in nine

out of nine of the last asset bubbles.

Now, they say we're not seeing that yet

in artificial intelligence. I make the

argument that no, we are depending on

where you look. I mean, look at Oracle.

Volatility is rising at Oracle. We've

got volatility rising and prices down on

AMD. The same is true if you go to

Nvidia, wherever Nvidia is. You know, we

ran to like 210 on the day. I think 214

intraday, 212 on the day, I guess. You

know, now we've been bleeding down,

although we're stabilizing a bit over

here. But this is why I think it's so

important that we need to see Oracle

catch a bid because if Oracle catches a

bid, the CDS pain will reduce and then

we could actually see data center

financing and we could keep seeing the

bubble and the policy keep going. Great.

We start losing that we have a problem.

At the same time, if we lose that, we

could potentially get unemployment

closer to 5%. Bank of America makes the

argument that getting the unemployment

rate to 5%.

Is very bearish because that starts

signaling uh the uh you know

recessionary indicators. That's when the

alarm bells start going off, right?

Somebody here writes, "How can I apply

as a dev?" Just email staff@meke.com if

you want. That's probably the easiest

way to do it. And then we'll take your

app and we'll forward it to the dev team

and and they'll look at it.

So

5% unemployment would be a red flag. But

then they also in their Bank of America

say this here. I think to be lower on

yields, you clearly need to see the

economy come closer to recession. This

is literally the Kevin thesis right

here. You're going to need to see one of

those credit events, whether it's in

crypto or private credit, private

capital or the Japanese bond market.

There are a lot of areas it could come

from, but if you get a recession, you

will get a credit event and yields could

fall a lot further than anyone thinks.

This is basically the TLT bet, right?

This is my take is that some shock

causes yields to plummet much faster

than people think. I think this is going

to happen. I think a way to you know a

long way to hedge for this

uh long real estate exposure obviously

biased house hack right uh but then also

long mortgage companies long mortgage

companies like UWMC somebody in the

community tab of our um uh of our course

member app this morning they were

talking about UWMC

and uh I looked into their UWMC post. So

UWMC,

here was their post. They asked about

WMC has announced they're acquiring uh

making an acquisition. So they're

acquiring TWWO and they're doubling

their mortgage servicing rights. Think

about this basically as getting mortgage

statement exposure for advertising for

the refinance boom. I think there's

going to be a massive refinance boom if

we have one of these credit events. And

that's why I think a way to hedge for

one of those events is long mortgage

companies slowly though, you know,

slowly because they're very volatile,

very volatile stocks. Uh, and long real

estate exposure, which is lowvall. So

those are hedges, right? Lowval. That's

why I say it's like you don't have to

invest in house act. Read the offering

circular before you do. You can invest

in mortgage companies very slowly. You

know, slowly diversify away. You take

some profits from a Tesla or whatever.

You slowly diversify away. This, in my

opinion, gives you some upside in a

credit event. The stocks could go down

in the short term, but over time, as

people start refinancing and unlocking

their equity in their homes, that's when

those mortgage company plays, I think,

get very, very expensive very rapidly.

So, that's interesting. So, it all makes

sense. Like, to me, I could put this

together pretty simply by arguing that

this is the criteria for being bullish.

Uh, we lack catalysts, right? we lack

catalysts until Jan 9 to13. Uh no news

is good news.

Uh and as long as we could stay positive

then we could see the case for hiring in

a soft landing. Uh risk is uh that you

know Jan 9 unemployment looks bad closer

to 5%. participation rises, uh, layoffs

accelerate rather than hiring. And then

you have a credit event and you want

hedges again via either real estate, uh,

long or, you know, slow diversification

to mortgage plays. Bank of America's

heartnet reiterates that. He always does

the flow show piece, by the way. He's

the guy that talks about that exposure

of uh, of cash balances being at record

lows, you know, 3.3%. big contrarian

sell signal. JP Morgan is bullish 26. I

looked at this list because I think JP

Morgan could go to hell. Uh but I looked

at their I hate them with a passion. Um

but um JP Morgan has a list of stock

ideas for 2026. And so I wanted to look

at their stocks to make sure none of my

stocks were on their list. And I'm very

happy to say that none of the course

member top 10 stocks to buy are on the

JP Morgan list. I'm very because like I

contrarianly hate them. They didn't even

which I did think was funny. They didn't

even put JP Morgan on their financial

sheet for financial stocks, but they've

got stocks on here like Alphabet, Roku,

Disney, and I I'm tempted by Disney, but

I haven't bought Disney yet. I actually

have two Mag Sevens in my uh media and

Teleico list on my top 10 stocks to buy

that are not on here, which is great.

I'm very happy cuz I don't want I don't

want to be where everybody else is, you

know? then you can't make money if

you're where everybody else is. You

can't make money.

Uh so very interesting. And I noticed

they put Salesforce on here as one of

their upside plays. I have a very

Carvana. This is like stupid. Uh very

very dangerous play, especially in a

downturn. Salesforce isn't bad. I have a

very similar play that I think is better

than Salesforce because their cash flow

is better, their pricing power is

better. Um I'll just give it to you.

It'll be a free sample. Okay, free

sample. I think that UIP path is a way

better play. Uh, and I actually I hope

they go down because I I like I want to

increase my exposure to them. But if you

actually look at the financials for

them, their pricing power is going up,

their operating leverage is going up,

their free cash flow is going up,

they're buying back stock, they've got

like a a fortress balance sheet, and

they've got a kind of a cheap valuation

because they've gone to crap since 21.

And so everybody's kind of forgotten

about how UiPath has exposure to

financial AI and healthcare AI without

me having to actually pick healthcare

and financial AI and maybe I should do a

standalone video on it. But but you know

I think that's a huge play. So this is a

little freebie I guess uh over the long

term. You know I'm I I'm not I'm hoping

it doesn't like have any kind of meme

crap because you know then it makes it

hard to buy. Uh Micron obviously had

fantastic earnings this morning. uh or

last night rather. They're kind of like

the TSM of of uh America. Uh you have to

be careful though because Micron is a

very cyclical play and they're a lagging

tell. So don't look at Micron as a tell

for what Oracle is going to do because

you have to look at it like this. The

way money goes is you borrow uh then you

spend on data centers like Oracle then

Oracle buys chips and memory right okay

so that's the order so

Micron

shows up over here right so they're not

a leading tell a leading tell

is financing for data centers that

that's at the far left side. Uh, and and

that's where you want to pay attention.

This is why that OpenAI fundra is kind

of important to pay attention to. Uh,

somebody says somebody Tony, is this the

same Tony as yesterday? Uh, we like

Tony. I told Lauren I told um I talked

to uh Lauren about Tony yesterday. Isn't

skepticism around CPI the perfect setup

for the next bull run as the market

climbs a wall of worry into the next

year and CPI eventually starts coming?

Yeah, I mean like I'm not worried about

CPI. I actually agree with you that like

even though these CPI numbers are

rigged, okay, CPI is going to plummet in

my opinion. I'm of the camp uh that CPI

will come down no matter what. Uh, so I

don't really care uh of this rigged

data, but like to your point Tony, TS

Lombard makes the argument that because

they think markets are actually going to

zoom, they think that inflation is a

greater risk. See, with pent-up demand,

reflationary fiscal policy, and

improving activity in Europe and China,

we suspect the consensus is

underestimating the strength of the US

economy in 2026. that provides a bullish

backdrop for risk assets in the first

half. The problem is now that supply is

constrained. So stronger growth will

feed inflation, cutting the cutting

cycle short, right? So uh but yeah, I

mean like this last CPI report was

fugazi. I I don't think we can really

justify a really rapid run in the short

term on markets. Uh, and I'm more

nervous about Oracle not holding up

because I think that could drag down the

cues. But I hope that if Oracle can

stabilize, we could just have a nice

bullish Christmas slowly move up towards

January 9th without any kind of crazy

panic. Now on my bull bear scale, I've

maintained 54 even after the CPI data. I

don't really think it's data and neither

does Nick T. You know, if you

investigate what Nick T says, uh he

tells us this is this is mostly uh like

a fugazi number. Mind you, I also wrote

on X here, Blackstone CEO says data

center spending is extremely

conservative and not bubble style work.

Everything is fine, right? Yeah. that to

the extent that you believe um the

Blackstone CEO. But anyway, Nick T says,

"If you look over here, I am the same to

Tony, your future BFF." What's up, Tony?

Uh, okay. So,

totally inexcusable. The BLS just

assumed owner's equivalent rent was zero

for October. I'm sure they have a good

technical explanation for this, but the

only way you get a 2-month average for

rent at 0.06 and owner's equivalent rent

at.13 is assuming October was zero.

There is no world where this is a good

idea, right? I mean, it's we know it's

rigged, so we should ignore this data.

And that's why in the alpha report that

this morning,

>> it's because that's why

>> I made the argument that institutions

were going to snuff out the bull crap

and they were going to be sellers. And

that's why I was looking for a 607

bounce, which is exactly what we got

today. You know, knock on wood, it was a

good call. But, uh, but point is, I

don't to me long term, this data doesn't

matter. Shortterm, as long as Oracle

doesn't fall off a cliff or continue to

fall off a cliff, we should be bullish

between now through January 9th slowly

on a lack of catalyst. There's no more

news between now and January 9th. No Fed

meetings, nothing. The biggest concern

is that Open AI, this is the biggest

risk. Open AAI comes out and says, "Hey

guys, we're effed. We can't raise

money." That would be a big concern

because it's so early in the cycle.

Going back to Micron for a moment

because I I feel like I didn't fully

explain this. Micron is a very good

business. They are very disciplined.

They're free cash flow positive. Pricing

power is very strong. They're paying off

debt. They're paying off $4.8 $8 of debt

for every dollar they're buying back.

This is a very strong business. But you

have to understand it is late cycle. It

is not the leading tell. Uh so if we get

a leading tell like really open AAI

failing over here, that's what you want

to pay attention to. This would be your

biggest red flag is OpenAI not making

money. That's the biggest concern to pay

attention to. Now some other

entertaining things that you could look

at just from a pilot point of view. I

mean, prayers obviously to Greg Biffle.

I made a separate video on on good old

Biff, but uh on a more entertaining

side, where was it? There was a um

there's an FAA posting out Department of

Transportation ruling out that companies

like Archer and Joby might be able to

conduct their air taxi services as

regular airplanes rather than V talls,

like vertical takeoffs. But if you miss

the V in EV tall, you basically have

EOTL e EOTl, you know, electric

takeoff and land.

Nobody cares. Like I'd rather buy Cirrus

Aviation stock them. So the whole

vertical aspect is the whole damn point

that I could go land at helipads

and and land in places that planes can.

I don't only want to go airport to

airport. if I want to go airport to

airport, I just fly a Cirrus.

So, I wasn't really enthused about that.

And then I do think it's a little bit of

a slow news day because uh the Wall

Street Journal had this hilarious piece

about how uh people uh are now praising

the jetweight Jesus. And so basically

the idea is that Tik Tok is circulating

a hack to where you could get priority

to board early if you ask for a

wheelchair and then you get to

prioritize like overhead compartment

space. But somehow miraculously when you

land most of the passengers that needed

wheelchairs to get on miraculously got

up and walked towards baggage claim. And

so people are now calling this this the

jetway Jesus that basically somehow

while people are on their planes, they

are miraculously

no longer disabled. So they get the VIP

experience going in and then they just

get up and run out on the way out.

Somehow on their flight they're able to

be healed. It says here sometimes there

are up to 50 wheelchairs boarding a

plane that only seats 130 passengers.

and all of a sudden people are healed by

the time they land. And so I thought it

was potentially a sign of a slow news

day that we're talking about the jetway

Jesus

uh on on the Wall Street Journal. The

Wall Street Journal is also talking

about how they let AI run their office

vending machine. And apparently this

clawed vending machine uh ended up

giving out called Claudius ended up

giving away PlayStations and a lot of

food as a marketing experiment. And

they're like, "This AI sucks cuz it just

gives away PlayStations, underwear,

cigarettes, pepper spray, stun guns, and

even live fish." Profits collapsed and

newsroom morale soared. So apparently,

um,

the Claudius AI sucks at running a

business, but it's very, very nice. You

do have the Financial Times flagging uh

about the warnings in in the CPI report,

you know, basically saying that a lot of

this data was imputed or interpolated or

basically bull crap. I kind of make the

argument that

Jerome Powell's right.

We should take all this data with a

grain of salt. Remember October where we

happened to not get a jobs report was

like the worst labor report we've seen

since the you know co recession

because we had like negative 150,000

jobs but nobody saw that headline

because Trump buried it in the shutdown.

Of course he was able to release the

October CPI numbers. So it's all kind of

rigged. We can't really trust the

numbers. And I think Jerome Powell is

right to say don't trust the numbers.

This is rigged. Be careful. take it all

with a grain of salt. So, that just

leaves me hoping that we keep seeing the

data center financing place get their

money and that's how you could be

optimistic about the market. As soon as

that funding dries up, it's all crap. It

all sucks. It all goes to poopy dupy.

Uh, that's my take. So, anyway, with all

that said,

stay safe out there.

Prayers obviously to the plane crash. We

did cover the plane crash in a separate

video this morning if you want to see

what's going on with the um Cessna plane

crash.

And uh well folks, good luck out there.

Stay safe. I got to go do some work with

house hack. Maybe we'll get over 2

million within a week today. I think we

will given that we're $1,100 away. So,

uh we'll see when the numbers start

coming through. Anyway, thanks for being

here, folks. We'll see you in the next

one. Goodbye. Good luck. Why not

advertise these things that you told us

here? I feel like nobody else knows

about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praat there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.