Mark Rober vs Tesla GETS WORSE | Tesla Stock Crashes vs Luminar

the mark roer versus Tesla drama is

intensifying Tesla stocked down about

$50 billion at the time of this

recording down

6.41% at the moment of this recording

while at the same time the company that

was promoting lar products in Mark

roer's video is up

177% now mind you much smaller company

but still worth around $30 million of

market share increase we have a lot to

talk about in this video a response from

Mark robber a response from luminar and

what do we think about the financials of

luminar is it is it a stock to pay

attention to or what are the risk

factors on that one well let's get into

all of it but first we have to start

with why why did they edit an iPhone out

to show a Google phone this is a little

odd but this was part of the mark Rober

video yesterday as well and it wasn't

mentioned by me yesterday I didn't think

of it as as majorly significant but it

is worth mentioning this is the image we

see as a still frame in the actual video

where you could see a Google pixel phone

center here with the Google logo upright

and two lens camera but for some reason

this is actually just an edited in

representation of the phone that was

actually used given that the reflection

that you get in not only the lar Imaging

but also the glass reflection of the

Tesla center console is a thre lensed

iPhone with the Apple logo leading a lot

of people to raise questions around

where has Integrity gone in editing or

journalism if you will mostly because

there is this understanding that team

mobile and pixel partnered with Mark

Robert so a lot of folks are wondering

hey like does the world really just only

revolve around money and sponsorships

and Partnerships well good news no

sponsorships or Partnerships or pitches

in this video just facts and detail like

how interesting yesterday I mentioned

that luminar brilliantly disappeared in

fact I wrote that in my caption here

luminar brilliantly disappears I talked

about how luminar was really good at

washing their hands of being involved in

the Tesla test probably because they did

didn't want to endorse the way markk

Robert was doing the tests especially

since Mark didn't use full self-driving

Tesla's latest and greatest most

advanced available self-driving is

technology why would you use a lesser

technology for your test we still

haven't gotten an answer on that but

what we do know is the one thing that

luminar did to tie themselves to Mark

was they put a banner across their

website saying luminar liar tested by

former NASA Apple engineer and current

YouTuber Mark ruber and they linked the

YouTube video which I spoke with an

attorney about this and they argued that

because luminar links to Mark's video

they're basically endorsing Mark's video

and that clever handwashing they were

doing they may have just gotten a little

bit more dirt mixed in which isn't good

but luminar may have realized the

liability that they may have even

slightly gotten themselves exposed to

because that message is now gone no more

reference to Mark's video it could be

because of social media backlash or it

could be because of liability concerns

it's also a lot of talk around what kind

of legal liabilities Mark Rober could be

exposed to and we talk about the lam act

in this video which is very different

than people just sharing an opinion

online because you or I as individual

people can share an opinion all we want

but when a business is cooperating with

another business to defame another

business that's where the Lama act and

fraud or false advertising comes in this

is a tort claim this is very very

different than sort of a oh you know

that person called me a liar or whatever

people do that all the time everybody

has their own personal opinions

businesses are held to a higher standard

hence why that law exists and why Mark

actually has serious legal liability I

spoke with my son about this and now I'm

going to get into the financials and

some other details as well but I spoke

with my 9-year-old who's a fan of Mark

and his opinion was Mark should do

another test like Mark is known for

testing why doesn't he do a fair test of

the Tesla full self-driving against this

you know Wy coyote wall that would

potentially be a way of redeeming

himself especially since it also appears

that now there's this dug up post from

2020 showing Mark roer suggesting hey

thanks to the 600,000 individual donors

from 191 countries that helped with

their uh you know nonprofit here and

some help from my buddy Austin Russell

Russell for the final push how

interesting Austin Russell for the final

push also known as the CEO of luminar

the company whose valuation just

increased by a good old

$34

million now it's a far cry from the $50

billion apple or apple it's a far cry

from the $50 billion that Tesla lost in

Market valuation today but In fairness

there could be other aspects or reasons

as to why Tesla's valuation is falling

today for example here's a uh poster on

X who says they they go by markets for

Mayhem markets and Mayhem I guess JP

Morgan expects Tesla to reports its

worst quarterly deliveries in three

years we struggle to think of anything

anagist

an similar in history of the automotive

industry in which a brand has lost so

much value so quickly now this is JP

Morgan's argument and you know some

people anti- Tesla are like that's right

screw you Tesla and people on the other

side are like n man you know now now

they're opening their base to more right

inclined voters and right leaning voters

and uh they they might pick up the slack

and buy those tests whatever this video

isn't about that it's actually about

some more facts and numbers such as Mark

roer's response which we see right here

mark on his X says here's the raw

footage of my Tesla going through the

wall not sure why it disengages 17

frames before hitting the wall but my

feet weren't touching the brakes or the

gas and if we look closely we can see

the full acceleration here and you'll be

able to see that there isn't any

indication of braking or brake lights

that occur on the vehicle I'll go ahead

and play it in full here but what I want

you to pay attention to as we Freeze

from froze this yesterday and went

through it frame by frame is that

autopilot for some reason does disengage

right before hitting the wall and Mark

seems equally confused by this again of

course people question mark why weren't

you using FSD but you know okay whatever

because In fairness it it like there are

arguments on both sides here one a you

didn't use FSD two or B why did you turn

on autopilot so late it's like you

barely gave it a chance to actually like

take in its surroundings so to speak and

then of course on the other hand people

say maybe Tesla's at fault here maybe

there's a bug in Tesla's autopilot

software and we're going to dive into

that in just a moment but pay close

attention here all right autopilot gets

enabled here was that about four or 5

Seconds go H that's less see he actually

fails to enable it there holy

shoot so you can actually see autopilot

disappeared well first of all Mark

struggles to turn it on look at the

struggle to get it on here

so for some reason he struggles to

actually turn it on I wonder if

autopilot like I I really wish I could

read what the warning was as to why

autopilot was struggling to turn on who

knows maybe it was recognizing there was

some form of issue but you'll notice

here we're 8 seconds into this clip and

the impact occurs at right about here 13

seconds so within 5 Seconds of engaging

autopilot is is when the impact occurs

and usually if autopilot is on within 5

Seconds of an impact it's considered an

autopilot related accident this was

right on the line like the last second

it could have possibly been turn on to

start functioning not sure how much that

matters because technically the camera

should be running in the background

anyway prepared to turn on it's not like

the camera should need 5 Seconds to boot

up to start functioning but what's more

important here is that take a look

closely here as we get and approach the

wall we saw this in the freeze frames

yesterday we see that Rainbow Road

disappear now why is that rainbow road

disappearing we have the same message up

from before so it's not like there's a

new message there's also no emergency

breaking there's no please hurry and

stop warning there's nothing all we get

is and it doesn't look like Mark is

doing anything we don't see brake lights

popping onto the Tesla here right if he

tapped the brakes it would take over

maybe if he turned the wheel too rapidly

it would turn like it would turn off

autopilot but we don't see that we don't

see a brake tap here all we see is

autopilot just disappear into the

background and this leaves a lot of

people wondering wait a second is this

actually more of a potential Tesla flaw

than a mark robber flaw well this is

where we can actually look to some

precedent on this has actually occurred

in a way that the

nhtsa has discovered

oopsy dupsies around this take a look at

this so uh this is the national highway

Transportation uh safety administration

argues in a

report that as they investigated 16

crashes on average in these crashes

where Tesla's autopilot features were on

and the car ended up hitting a

stationary vehicle of those 16 crashes

on average autopilot was running but

quote AB boarded vehicle control less

than 1 second prior to its first

impact wow well that somewhat shifts the

scales here for a moment because

remember Mark Robert promised that he

would use autopilot for the remaining

tests and then there was a large concern

over wait minut like why was it off

before the test did you do multiple

takes like you know was this

disingenuous or is it a test the problem

see now of a sudden The Story Goes a lot

deeper especially since the nhtsa has

some form of precedent of noticing the

similar issue now this doesn't absolve

why there was a child standing behind

the wall for added Dr a drama effect

which felt like a Tesla smear it doesn't

solve why you didn't spend the $99 for a

one-month subscription to have access to

full self-driving technology it doesn't

resolve some of those Unearthed issues

but it does

potentially explain why Mark seems just

as confused oh sorry that's the we did

it post uh let's go find the last post

of marks there we go we'll live refresh

that there we go here's the raw footage

of my Tesla going through the wall not

sure why it disengages 17 seconds uh

frames rather before hitting the wall

but my feet weren't touching the brakes

for the gas now I talked to my son about

this and I agree with him we find that

Mark's confusion is potentially credible

here looking at the video and aligning

us with the nhtsa it seems likely that

there is true confusion here again it

doesn't solve other issues of the test

but there does seem to be some real

confusion here this is going to be

something that Tesla probably needs to

address again doesn't solve the problem

in terms of why we didn't use FSD but

let's talk about luminar as a company

for a moment because was there

potentially this upcoming knowledge that

they wanted to pump their stock right

before their earnings note that the

company reports earnings on March 20th

today's the 17th so in just a few days

luminar is going to report earnings and

if you look at this chart which is the 1

hour chart you know this this jump of

18% looks really successful but that

success really Fades away quite

literally when you go out to the day

chart or Worse the week chart you could

see this had a lot of covid

2020 enthusiasm you'll see that the

stock went up to $717 per share which is

misleading because they did a reverse

split I think it it was either 10 for

one or 12 for one so it never actually

got high they did a reverse split

because they received a delisting notice

from NASDAQ NASDAQ basically said hey

you're all stuck is sucking so freaking

badly you all need to fix it so they

conducted a reverse split and now you

know their stock is trading for $56 uh

and and they're up 18% just before

earnings here now something to know

beyond this has to do with the

financials of luminar and remember my

goal isn't to try to take sides here I I

I want to provide you as much unbiased

information as possible so ultimately

you can make your own decision you could

make your decisions about Mark about uh

Tesla you know demands for follow-up

videos or test or how Tesla should

respond you I I personally think it'd be

kind of cool if they did some kind of

FSD partnership and came up with some

sort of positive solution you know they

did a mark and luminar test do a Tesla

and and Mark Tess though you know I I

don't know maybe the relationship would

be too bitter as a result of uh of of

this test for that to happen so when we

actually look at the financials of this

company it's worth remembering they

report earnings in 3 days so a lot of

these numbers are going to change

rapidly but there are definitely some

weird things in here such as uh the

company in a 9-month period uh is losing

less money than they used to lose which

is good uh they used to lose uh

$422 million in a 9month period now

they're losing about $228 million in a

9month period which works out to about

71 m milon of loss per quarter that's

going to become really important when we

look at their balance sheet so just

remember they lose about $71 million per

quarter so every 3 months $71 million

are going out the door to put that a

little bit more clearly every single day

they lose about

$788,000

so if you've ever wanted you know a home

that was like a nice four bedom 2 and a

half bath with a pool and it cost

$780,000 they burn one of those up and

the land somehow every single day anyway

uh in addition to their actual net

losses from operations they're writing

down inventory they've been writing down

inventory in 23 they've done it in 24

usually this occurs as a product becomes

obsolete because they came out with a

new and better product or it's just

aging because they failed to sell it not

entirely clear what the case is here but

it is interesting they've spent money

about in 23 they spent about2 billion to

acquire Seagate you know the hard drive

company their liar business which to me

is just a sign that Seagate bailed and

the way this company finances a lot of

their work is through selling stock so

basically diluting shareholders for a

money losing business or issuing debt

now I'm generally okay with businesses

that are making money issuing stock

because usually when they issue $100

worth the stock they can make money with

it right like let's say you I don't know

are a real estate company you're going

to ISS $100 worth of stock but you turn

that into $120 or $130 worth of real

estate everybody wins in that case but

in this case it's quite the opposite

every $100 of stock you issue you're

losing all of it and more so and that's

because you don't have a profitable

business now this is skewy but in their

last quarterly report they say they had

a positive net income but the only

reason they had a positive net income is

because they took a 140 $7 million quote

gain on extinguishment of debt if you

actually look at their business this is

a business that has $15 million of money

coming into it okay so so imagine this

imagine that you had a lemonade stand

and you sold $15 worth of lemonades how

much did it cost you to sell that or run

that Lemonade Stand well to sell the

lemons it cost you $29 see right here

$29 billion so you got $15 but it cost

you $29 to buy the lemons

and then to run the business from your

home office or whatever it cost you

another

$100 to run the lemonade business so

while it you felt good about selling $15

worth of lemonade you actually ended up

with losses from operations of about

$115 in this case $15 million in just

three months not a very sustainable

business model especially since you're

propping it up with uh funny Arcane

accounting to make it seem like you're

profitable in the quarter right as you

do this partnership with Mark Robert

interesting math but it's not just that

it's worth noting that they have massive

customer concentration which creates

some real risks as well if you go to

page 34 and to 36 in their last

Financial filings you'll find a few

things first you'll see that one

customer accounted for 48% of the

company's Revenue in the 9 months ending

September 30th 2024 and then three other

customers accounted for 32 14 and

14% that's for the 3 months ending in

September 30th so you can look at this

the point is they have customer

concentration if one customer bails they

make a whole lot less money but it's not

just that one of the big Partnerships

that they have with Volvo which is an

upside to the company and a lot of

people are excited about this

partnership in Volvo just started facing

a whole new set of uncertainties now you

should be able to figure this one out

yourself I'll give you the answer but

I'm going to read this one to you and I

want you to like the first thing that

pops into your mind here is probably

going to be right you ready for this we

announced our start of production for

Volvo cars at the manufacturing facility

in Mexico in April of 20124 and began

shipping production lar sensors for the

Volvo

ex90 with yields continuously improving

throughout 2024 hm okay so we're going

to sell cars with our product made in

Mexico what could a potential problem be

with that thesis oh I don't know Trump

tariffs anyway so look this is a this is

a very interesting what all is going on

here you have a company that is losing

money hand over fist they don't know how

to run a lemonade stand but they have

this thesis that lidar is the future and

a lot of people argue that maybe liar is

the future now is it luminar as a

company Maybe not maybe they haven't

figured it out uh other people argue hey

look if you can't see through the fog as

a person why should the car be expected

to see through the fog a full

self-driving car that can't see should

just pull over just like a human do you

really need lar to be able to drive

through fog that you couldn't see

through otherwise and then of course

there are arguments that the type of fog

that luminar used is favorable to uh

liar technology whereas real fog is it

favorable to lar technology and lar

technology wouldn't work anyway it's

worth noting that that Volvo they're

installing this technology onto is an

$80,000 vehicle it's a premium SUV or

luxury luxury SUV and so you really have

to scratch your head there and say okay

you know what's better full self-driving

that's 99% perfect but accessible to

everyone or full self-driving that's

only accessible to 5% of people or 10%

of people and it is more perfect like

99.5% perfect I I don't know makes

that's going to be something that

Society will have to sort of evaluate as

as we go towards a future of

self-driving cars but I have to say

you've got some very interesting data

sets that have come out just in the last

24 hours here some real like still no

answers as to why they didn't test full

self-driving in the mark Roper video no

answers as to why all of a sudden they

had to edit what appears to be an iPhone

that they used to video into a Google

and then did a bad job editing it which

kind of is like a stealth and free

advert M for Apple which is kind of cool

people are also wondering if Disney is

going to do anything I would argue no

because too many children like Mark and

you know children are going to see past

this and I don't blame that at all uh

but luminar is an interesting one

because it's running today on enthusiasm

on sort of this media attention and

earnings coming up but are its earnings

actually going to be any different from

what we've previously seen worth paying

attention to the trend of the stock

isn't exactly the best and clearly

there's some friendship between the CEO

of this company and Demar but in

addition to that we've got to find out

hey what's Tesla's stance on this

because they just evaporated $50 billion

of market value maybe we should ask the

CEO whenever he's done with his work in

the White House