YIKES! **Watch BEFORE** Tesla's Robotaxi Event.

what's going to happen at the Tesla Robo

taxi day in this video I'm going to go

through exactly what to expect what not

to expect and what my predictions are

for what the stock is going to do is it

going to go up is it going to go down

what's the valuation have to say about

it all of that and more let's get

started now first I will be covering the

robo taxi event tomorrow on October 10th

I'll be covering it from here in the

studio so we can add live commentary and

cover everything that happens and of

course the first thing that we expect to

happen is that there will almost

certainly be some form of purpose-built

Robo taxi this has been in production at

Tesla for many years now and we expect

this to be sort of the first reveal of

this no no steering wheel device it's

going to be an expensive prototype this

is not a mass scale device it probably

has extremely Advanced non-consumer and

power hungry Hardware built onto it

mostly because it needs to function

perfectly and quite frankly my

expectation is in addition to seeing

this concept design for robo taxi mostly

because it'll still be years before we

actually get to really take rides on

public roads in these Robo taxis I think

that we are actually going to end up

having a Flawless reveal now this is the

purpose-built robo taxi this is not

going to be the you know open up your

app and submit your car to the robo taxi

Network we might hear talk about that

and we might even see app functionality

that says look you're going to be able

to in the future submit your car to the

robo taxi network but don't anticipate

that in my opinion on the hardware sets

that we have now for these consumer

Vehicles because honestly it'll probably

be closer to 2027 or 2028 before we

really get started with Robo taxis in

scale to where they're even remotely a

threat to lift or Ubers uh and are more

broadly accessible kind of like when MO

is in certain areas today but non- geof

fenced opportunities for Teslas probably

looking at closer to

2728 one of the reasons I argue that is

because one of the Bloomberg analysts

who tracks Tesla Supply chains says that

their latest supply chain survey

indicates Tesla's Robo tax C AKA The

Cyber cab may enter mass production in

the first quarter of

2027 and because production is still

some time away expectation here might be

a bit optimistic for the event now uh

there's some other commentary here and I

don't necessarily agree exactly whether

or not the stock could go up or down

based on this alone I think that most

Tesla investors are actually relatively

reasonable here and they realize that

yes this is very promising but there is

a lot of work to do yes there's a chance

current Hardware may not make it

honestly that might also be

understandable I realized there are

going to be some of us that are like but

we were sold that we can you know take

our current Tesla and inject it into the

robot taxy Network it's probably not a

likelihood however what we are going to

see I think is a Flawless event after

all this event is going to be set on a

private lot the Warner Brothers Studios

lot with extremely clear Road markings

and signs no gotcha situations or Unique

Edge Cas cases there won't be edge cases

here like they literally won't put their

cyber cap into an edge case scenario a

because well they legally can't but B

this private Warner Brothers lot is just

going to be very very basic simple left

right turns I'd be even surprised if we

got a left turn frankly and I wouldn't

be surprised if the paint on those Lane

markings looks brand spanking new

because I think Elon will gladly throw

money at the Warner Brothers lot to

repaint all those Lane markers to make

sure this launch goes perfectly and

honestly rightfully so there's a lot at

stake here this is going to be the most

controlled Tesla launch we have ever

seen because elon's basically you know

betting the bag on Robo taxi and FSD so

this has to go perfectly this can't be

like cybertruck oops I broke the

bulletproof glass this needs to go

flawlessly for robotaxi uh not at least

the demonstration which is probably

going to be something like the vehicle

will be introduced you'll see a new

image of a two-door vehicle uh you'll

get substantial Applause they'll talk

about why it's two doors because most

rid or single Rider anyway so you don't

really need four doors there could be

other versions in the future but we'll

start with the twood door to hit the

mass Market first then Elon will invite

guests and other YouTubers uh to to ride

the robo taxi and possibly go on a

little short ride to pick up McDonald's

from uh you know fake standup McDonald's

where uh a bag of McDonald's is brought

out from the McDonald's facade uh

carried by a Optimus robot who's

bringing the bag to you uh and then

you're supposed to grab the bag and and

hopefully the robot lets go at the same

time as you're grabbing it so it doesn't

fall on the floor this is really like no

risk for McDonald's there are going to

be so many eyeballs on this event

McDonald's sales are going to go up

tomorrow this is a no lose situation for

McDonald's and is a really good idea if

indeed the rumors are true that

McDonald's is going to be involved I

suspect that they will be and I think

it'll actually be really cool I think

this will likely go flawlessly

I do think that Optimus walking out and

presenting you the food will uh be very

cool but I I do want to be that jaded

person and I do want to apologize for

this but it's going to be human

controlled now that's still going to be

impressive because it's going to show

you the function hopefully of the

Optimus walking and not falling walking

faster and not you know shaking uh being

able to use its hand uh and the servos

inside of its chassis very well I'd like

to see some nice you know 3D printed

cladding that makes it look not like a

robot but more like a friendly Droid

that's helping you uh I I do think

you'll see these things and seeing its

actuators in action will be very

important so smoothness here rather than

the tethered wobbliness we've previously

seen with Optimus I think you're going

to see that again I do think somebody's

going to be wearing the little headset

and the control or whatever in a window

or some kind of you know container that

you can't see around the corner on the

studio lot it is after all a studio lot

uh like we know how to play angles here

okay uh so this is probably going to go

really flawlessly I think you'll have

very short rides in these Robo taxis no

driver no steering wheel I don't even

think you'll have a safety driver

because honestly even a safety driver at

this point would just be lame uh you'll

have somebody with a safety button that

could turn it off remotely but it's a

private lot so you don't really need

Safety Drivers because is you know

private lot you can kind of do what you

want on a private lot mostly um always

remember though always always stand

behind Alec

Baldwin anyway okay so uh with all that

said all of this will be choreographed

really well and and it'll be very hard

for this event to go poorly now what is

actually much more important here is the

model 2 no not the Roadster though I'll

talk about the Roadster in in just a

moment what actually will be much more

important on the robo taxi evente will

not actually be Robo taxi that will not

be the showstopper what this event is

actually going to be about or please

dear Lord

please give us this good news give us

the greatness of the model toe I

understand Elon Musk is heavy on Robo

taxi and all that but folks we need

volume we need Tesla to print Tesla

like the good old 2021 2022 kit Kevin

Tesla bull by the dip days we're going

to copy and paste factories and there

going to be 10 million of these suckers

on the road bro I am sick and freaking

tired of not being able to cheer Tesla's

delivery numbers okay we're down in

Europe we're down in the United States

we're going to be negative

year-over-year elon's dancing on the

stage with Trump elon's pumping you know

every everything but the manufacturing

capacity at Tesla and so what I think

this event is actually really going to

come down to is is Elon going to at

least give us a taste just the tip come

on baby just a little bit just a taste I

want to taste the salt I just had a

bunch of

uh dry roasted macadamia nuts so good

anyway this is what this event is

actually going to be about you need to

reveal a cheaper model too Elon knows

and the Elon team knows how much Tesla

was punished and Tesla stock was

punished upon the cancellation or

rumored cancellation of the model 2 that

was basically later like confirmed

is therefore the easiest way to drive

Tesla stock to $300 is just introduce

the freaking model too $25,000 to

$30,000 go back to the $225,000 vehicle

somewhat risky because if you say you

could pre-order it soon you're going to

cannibalize model 3s and model y's so

you have to do this delicately but

I think the way they'll do it is the

model 2 is coming here's what it looks

like it's not ready yet and we'll do

pre-orders in a delivery event in the

future we don't know when but maybe at

the beginning of 2026 we'll actually

start mass-producing

this and it'll be partially done on

existing lines and partially done on the

unbox strategy line honestly that in my

opinion good enough to help Wall Street

increase their growth expectations for

2026 help increase uh uh the you

projected EPS for Tesla and then Tesla

stock can actually go up even more than

it already has because honestly right

now volatility surprisingly a little on

the Lower Side 10day historic volatility

which is good if you wanted to buy

options going into this event I think a

lot of people go into this thinking it's

going to be by the rumor sell the news I

actually think there's a good chance if

they pull off a good launch here and

they pitch the model 2 that the stock

will actually go up you know uh you know

if I had to guess I'd probably be like

265 after tomorrow's event day is

actually reasonable and if you can break

265 you're going to be able to get to

295 and 300 you know that'll be your

next barrier obviously unless they

completely ignore all of this and

there's some catastrophe with the robo

tax even and there's some catastrophy

with uh you know not getting back to the

basics and ancing the model 2 well then

obviously the stock will you know tank

under the 220s and and it's not so much

that that'll last because then really

pricing will take over for recession or

not and now markets and bond markets are

not pricing in a recession there's

almost there's there's less than 15%

pricing of a recession in the stock

market and bond market right now nobody

has downside protection for a recession

it seems right now everything's just new

highs new highs new highs which is fine

if there's no recession terrible if

there's a recession but anyway Tesla's

current valuation at uh $245 with

forward EPS of $226 puts this at about a

$18 uh PE ratio which is high but you do

have some delicious growth forecasts and

honestly I keep seeing these growth

forecasts and I watch them and they kind

of keep ticking up a little bit all

right so I got to give it to Tesla here

you've got 130% growth over the next

four years uh and if I divide that that

works out to an average of about

32.5 6% growth per year on average here

that's pretty good and now if you divide

that into the PE Ratio you're Trading

for about a 3.3 Peg which is ridiculous

for Manu for a Manufacturing Company

like Tesla like even if you were a you

know an FSD company solely you know fine

maybe a two six Peg but honestly you're

probably about twice the valuation of

where you should be right now and the

only way to justify this valuation going

up is that you introduce the model 2 so

if we don't get the model 2 tomorrow

this crop tanks and I already see the

comments I know people are going to be

ke Kevin this isn't advertised as the

model 2 event this adver

robot I'm sorry okay like I I there's

there's so much like vitriol and hate

and anger on the internet I just have I

just have to fight back it makes me feel

better okay anyway uh no I mean really

look I'm a long run Tesla B but we need

a we need a model two here we need the

model 2 we need it this be the easiest

way to drive this to $300 is Robo taxi

is coming but in the meantime we're

going to pump EPS with the model 2

that's it that would make this a killer

event okay Roadster sure fine maybe you

could pre-order the Roadster at the end

of 2025 I think that's about 60%

possible it's the model S on steroids

maybe smaller twoo Coupe style 1.4 0 to

60 uh the

Roadster uh you know

I I I don't think the Roadster uh you

know will will really make a break

anything here no Roadster will be a

disappointment but it'll have little

impact on the stock model two much more

important you know some of the latest

things we're seeing in pricing uh is

that they're uh you're currently sitting

at about 5.29% to finance a Tesla but if

you get FSD they're dropping that to 0%

financing which is pretty nice uh and

they did drop the FSD price from $8,000

to $7,000 on on existing inventory

personally and I understand this might

be unpopular but personally I would drop

the price of FSD to like next to zero

you know maybe 1,000 bucks or 2,000

bucks I'd play with those numbers there

to see like where can I sit based on

price elasticity of demand factors to

get the most out of this but I think

eight is way too high the take rate is

going to be like 7% it's way too low uh

and and this is like pure margin right

so like get it to where the take rate is

like

90% uh and and just get me like you know

10times 2,000 bucks now I'm getting

$20,000 versus every $6,000 right or or

$8,000 whatever uh so uh you know this

is ass signed to me that they still have

to pull demand levers to try to prevent

being year-over-year negative this year

but I think markets have already mostly

priced in that we're going to be

year-over-year negative here so really

that's why you need the model 2 to be

launched tomorrow and uh you need a

Flawless FSD presentation one of the

reasons you really need a Flawless FSD

presentation as well well is because of

the corporate departures we've seen over

the last few weeks uh and and that's

not it's not horribly unusual at Tesla

to see corporate departures but we've

had a lot okay I mean Tesla's Chief

investment officer quit 5 days before

the robo tax event the head of vehicle

programs quit 12 days before the event

the head of public policy quits 10 days

before the event these are all the

autopilot departures you know of of when

they started and where they went now I

don't know that this is necessarily so

terrible though because you know usually

in Tech many corporate departures are

likely the result of recruiting or

poaching so it's not a horrible surprise

to me that you know that guy went to

Nvidia that guy went to Cru that guy

went to scale that person went to

ba uh that person went to AEL

robotics uh you know wh Mo what else do

we have here plus Amazon Nvidia weo

Nvidia

Nvidia Aurora Aurora Nvidia Aurora

Nvidia like this is not Apple you know

none of Nvidia this is not a surprise

these these sort of corporate departures

are very very normal this is the tech

World okay this this like you you take

your stock you take your salary okay and

let's say you have stock worth $5

million in Tesla and a $300,000 salary

you know and then Nvidia goes to you and

says how about $20 million in stockhom

and a $500,000 salary you don't give a

flying rats hooney heiney how great or

not the robot tax event going to be

you're going to be like see you you know

it's just the way it is so I don't

actually really think this is that

bearish these departures here slight

potential probably not but slight

potential you get wireless charging I I

I don't really think we're there yet the

uh the loss is like 40% on wireless

charging uh it would just burn so much

uh uh Power you know in the air I I I I

don't I don't see that happening maybe

The Optimist trying to plug in a Tesla

but I I even think that's just a bad

idea because it's probably not going to

go well uh cybertruck they might

reiterate how you know uh the

non-foundation series pricing is going

to be sub 80,000 that's great still

tough when consumers are constrained uh

really you know the burdens for robo

taxi are just going to be regulatory

approvals and I understand that people

argue oh but Kevin you know it's so much

safer to have a robo taxi and uh you

know Regulators will be forced to adopt

Robo taxi I understand people think that

but the reality is all it takes is one

person dying or one really bad accident

or worse a bad accident that kills

someone or combination of this uh that

just ends up delaying robotaxis

infinitesimally far out so I actually

kind of agree with the analyst that you

probably get Tesla testing these in many

different locals around the country by

2027 end of 2027 maybe you do a test

pilot and you launch that in 2025 and

like Austin Texas big deal you've got

you know 10 Tesla robot taxis in Austin

Texas that's not a game changer for

anything but it will lay the groundwork

for a wider roll out by 2027 so another

you know two and a half years out uh and

you probably won't have like ubiquity in

Robo taxis until another decade like

2034 so I don't really see this as a

huge Revenue driver and that's why I say

tomorrow even though it's called the

robo taxi day or event or whatever it

it's it's all about the the model to

here uh some people have been asking me

about what I think about the risk for

like Uber or Lyft I mean yeah these

stocks could obviously move uh based on

you know just the news cycle for Tesla

but honestly I think the risk is

relatively low for these uh over the

next probably 5 years and they're

already partnering with wh and other

companies to bring you a driverless ride

which is actually really smart because

when it comes to Robo taxi what people

care about the most is speed like how

long is it going to take for a vehicle

to show up quite frankly the vast

majority of people like I think Uber

cost and Robo taxi cost will probably be

about the same right so as you scale

more Robo taxis you're you're just going

to see the price of both of them per

mile come down in this competitive

deflationary cycle and the reality is

most people outside of the Enthusiast

Community don't give a flying rats

wonis whether or not somebody's driving

the car or it's a robo taxi they're just

trying to get from point A to point B in

reasonable safety and comfort it's that

simple so the cheapest fastest option is

just going to be what people take and if

that's a human driver Uber delivery or a

robo taxi doesn't really matter what

it'll come down to is what's the app

that people open to call the first ride

and can that ride show up before the

person open up the next app to call the

next ride and then they cancel the first

one right that's just how the consumer

is going to operate that's not how a

Tesla investor is going to operate but

that's how the consumer is going to

operate so this is sort of my realistic

take uh I'm not placing any bets on this

uh personally I I I apologize I'm just a

little bit uh bearish right now on the

entire economy it has nothing to do with

Tesla uh I I personally think the odds

of recession are are like the opposite

of what the market is pricing in the

Market's pricing in like an 85% chance

of a soft Landing I'm at like an 85%

chance of a recession so uh like forgive

me okay this is this is like just you

know bear Kevin I hope I'm wrong because

if I'm wrong it's going to be great for

all my startups okay my startups don't

want a recession uh but if I'm right

it'll be bad for the startups I mean

we'll be okay but you know I'll I'll go

buy the dip at cheaper prices but I will

say you know some of the valuations

right now are a little rich and there's

probably valuation side if you don't get

a model 2 a lot more downside so uh I'm

going to make some predictions here uh

I'm going to say if we get model 2 and

things go the way I predict here we're

looking at

295 that's model 2 is coming soon

cheaper pricing we're getting back to

volume growth robot tax is going to

happen but we're focusing on

volume that would be a

godsend okay

295 Plus

even though the evaluation

kooky downside no model 2 mentioned at

all no teases no

hints 195 certainly 220 certainly 220

220 is almost certain that's an easy one

195 is possible

too anyway I'll be streaming it I don't

have a horse in the race tomorrow I love

you and if you're in the stock I wish

you the best if you're hoping for a dip

so you can buy the dip great I love you

uh I will always be here to share my

perspective we might not always agree

but just know even if it's unpopular I'm

just going to give you my honest

wholehearted opinion and I'll I'll just

keep showing up it's the best I can do

appreciate y'all why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising in CR go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there Financial analy and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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