None of the Fundamentals that Got Gold and Silver Up Here Have Changed | Peter Carlin.

silver. I still think you know a lot of

games being played. It's one of the

famous favorite hangouts in the world

for game players. I I can't think barely

of another market except for something

like light aromatics in the petroleum

game where things like this happen. But

um but that's silver for you. You know,

like I said, you know, if you if you go

on a date with a psychotic girl, you

never know what's going to happen.

Monaco 64, home of alternative economics

and contrarian views. So, it's uh

Thursday, February 5th, 2026.

And uh yeah, it's around 8:20 uh a.m.

London time and I've got Peter Carlin

back on. Uh he wanted to talk about the

the market action uh in gold and silver

and uh it's certainly uh not boring,

right, Peter?

>> Not at all. Uh quite the overnight out

of the east. Um you know, we've come

well off the highs uh from silver now in

two big segments down looking for the

looking for the bottom and now we're uh

we've got a seven handle on this and um

I would say that uh you know we we've

clear we've cleared out both sides of

the arena. We've cleared out the weak

length who chased on the way up. Um, and

we've also, you know, seen, uh, a lot of

the people who, um, you know, were were

shorting all the way up got probably

stopped out at the top. So, silver, I

still think, you know, a lot of games

being played. It's one of the famous

favorite hangouts in the world for game

players. I I can't think barely of

another market except for something like

light aromatics in the petroleum game

where things like this happen. But um

but that's silver for you. You know,

like I said, you know, if you if you go

on a date with a psychotic girl, you

never know what's going to happen. Um of

course, the real point too is if you

look at gold, nothing really happened.

You know, gold is just been steady and

right in there off maybe 1.8%.

But uh if we go to that second second

chart system that I sent you, you know

that's going back to when we talked a

week ago when we started to move down

when we had the first big move down.

>> Is that the one with the touchdown that

you wrote?

>> Touchdown. Yeah.

>> Let me bring it up.

>> And uh

>> this one.

>> Yeah, we that that's a week old now. You

can see where we were. We were at 5177

on that chart. And uh I was looking for

5,000 if it broke for the market to

touch down on 4500 and then stabilize or

reverse and stabilize. And uh we got

almost exactly there. We came a little

bit through but we did not get a close.

Importantly important to remember we

only went intraday below 4500. So please

remember that's chart that you're

looking at is a week old. But the the

indication of the 4500 touchdown worked

just on a simple trend line. And here we

are now, you know, stabilizing. Where

are we on gold now?

>> Uh, let's have a look. I'm I'm going to

>> just I think we're at 4933,

>> right? 4933. There we go.

>> Down $28 now. I mean, the low

>> nice and steady. If you remember back in

December when we were talking, I said,

"I think we're going to get to a point

where the uh gold silver ratio is going

to flip, but it's going to take a few

weeks." Well, here we are. you know, we

we flipped and um what what what I

think, you know, is is the most salient

point, the most important point, as I'm

sure you remember from Jim's um famous

apherism, you know, thou shalt not chase

strength in precious metals. So, you

know, if if you did any of the hallmarks

by saying you better buy now or you'll

never be able to buy. If you said this

is it, that's always a huge marker. And

if you looked at the lines around the

block on the Yowatt road in in Thailand

and especially in Singapore and Hong

Kong, that should have been indicators

to be careful. Of course, it's so much

easier to run with the mob. And

unfortunately, in the arena of picking

entry points or even more importantly in

trading, you have to do the opposite of

what the crowd is doing. The crowd is

always wrong. And that's the number one

commentary from Jim, from people like

Mark Fabber, who's been in the game for

ages. you know, lots and lots of, you

know, good solid pros out there. Number

one rule, never pay attention to the

crowd. Think for yourself. Think

independently. Don't get caught up in

the hysteria and the emotions. So, the

real question, as far as I'm concerned

now, is now that we're we're off like

30%, if you want to bring up the array,

if you could, that shows where we were

about, you know, 20 minutes ago.

>> Oh, the with the prices.

>> Yeah, exactly. Let's get some

perspective on this thing so that

>> people can

>> Yeah, I know. I I always like to look at

the long-term picture as well.

>> Exactly. So, let's look at the

year-on-year, you know, 144 on silver,

72 on gold. Come on. This is

>> even year to date, it's doing quite well

already.

>> Right. Exactly. And um if you look at

platinum too again some solid action

there over a year. So my question to

everybody today looking at this and

seeing where we are on those weeklies

you know on silver down what was it 32

32.12.

My question is are you buying here?

Are you buying here after you've lost

32% in a week? That's the real question.

Not did you, you know, did you chase it

as we cruised through 115?

That's the mistake. So, that's what you

have to take from it. Obviously, anybody

who's one of the screen jockeyies that's

playing on short-term momentum and and

tried to buy silver on margin, like I've

always said,

>> you need to go to a mental hospital if

you if you try and buy silver on margin.

And now you see you see why.

>> Yeah.

you you've got a very placid gold

market, just nice and calm, just under

5,000. Just under 5,000.

>> And as we speak here, u you know, the

low overnight in silver is 7350

and now we're almost at 81. So, it's

moving like uh crazy.

>> Yeah. A lot of volatility.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. And I I personally I I have no

concerns about silver whatsoever long

term, even even short-term, medium-term.

If we saw a real serious weekly closing

under 60, I might re-evaluate. That's

when I would start re-evaluation. But

this is this is just noise. This is

noise. And this is silver. This is

silver. Now you know

>> I think Jim Jim said that silver was

gold on steroids, wasn't it?

>> Yeah, of course. Exactly.

>> Yeah.

>> Exactly. And and and now you see why.

>> But you know the bigger picture, you

know, have have we seen

>> have we seen confidence restored in any

way? No, we have not. We've got the

Iranian situation which just looks like

it's building and building and building.

It might be on hold for a week or two.

Something very large is brewing there.

You know, we've got chaos across America

in Minneapolis. We saw yesterday New

York City cops were arresting ICE

officials or detaining them. Though I

mean this is not a vote of confidence.

You know, we've got we've got a mess

everywhere around the world. None of the

things that got us up here have changed.

You know, there it's the still it's

still the same situation and that

situation is chaos. And we are still in

a chaotic world that is growing more

chaotic by the day. And um there's no

change out there as far as I can see.

>> I want to show you a chart.

You didn't send this one to me. I got

it. It's the uh volatility of the uh the

gold price in uh in Reich's marks during

>> Oh, all right. Yes.

>> You know, so

>> that'll give you some perspective.

>> Yeah. So I mean a lot of people probably

got shaken out of their gold in the

early 20s. Uh but you know the the

direction of travel was uh for the

currency to drop a lot more

>> and I think you were talking about wars

as well. Uh you made a comment that u

they're they're using this new

appointment uh for Fed chairman as an

excuse to say that he's going to be

tough. he's going to be the next Paul

Vulker, but I can't see him uh shrinking

the balance sheet. It would bring

everything down.

>> No, I can't see it either. I think I

think this concept of an independent Fed

is very limited. Very limited. Uh you

know, he's under he's going to be under

Trump's thumb and um you know, we we

know what Trump wants, you know, and we

know the work he's got cut out for him.

You know, Trump wants a lower dollar. Uh

this is this is going to be the uh the

battle of the century because I don't

see where he's going to get it from.

>> Yeah. And why would

>> we're we're coming right back off on the

yen. We use the yen as the bellweather

for how well Mr. Trump's policy of you

know weakening the dollar is going to be

and and so far it doesn't seem to show

very much.

>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean dollars are around

157. Uh

seems to be pretty, you know, not doing

much at the at the moment on a monthly

basis, but yeah, it looked like it the

dollar topped around 160.

So, we could see you think the the

dollar is going to weaken further versus

the yen. Is that what you mean?

>> No, I don't.

>> Oh, okay.

>> I don't. Just the opposite. I I think

the yen is absolutely toast. And I don't

think any kind of machinations by by the

Federal Reserve are going to change

that.

>> This is the theory that we're getting

into the stage now where you're going to

see precious metals and the dollar move

up together. There's there's nowhere

else to go.

>> There's nowhere else to go. I mean, you

can't have the entire world putting all

of their reserves into into gold.

>> They they can't go where they should go,

which is the yuan. They should be moving

into the Chinese yuan, but the Chinese

don't want that yet. They don't They

don't want

>> Yeah. And I mean, if you look back to

19, not 198, 2008,

uh the dollar bottom at 70.69

roughly dollar and gold was at a

thousand

>> and now we're 5,000 basically and and

dollar index is around 100. So like you

said,

>> uh the dollar and gold can go up

together, but

>> it just Yeah. It just adds like you

said.

>> Yeah. And but and gold will go up uh a

lot faster versus the dollar than the

dollar.

>> Absolutely.

>> Yeah.

>> Absolutely. So I don't know, you know,

we we still have the same problems, you

know, the continuation of the sanctions

regimes, which are doing nothing. the uh

the weaponization of the Swift system

which is causing people to kind of

manically look for other places to put

reserves. Uh you know we used to live in

a world where we we could put res people

could put reserves governments could put

reserves in the yen in the sterling in

the demark now known as the bad version

of the of the euro and and all of all of

those are gone. All of those are gone. I

I no central banker with their salt. I

mean, just on a trade basis, you'd be

you'd be nuts to hold major reserves in

the yen, in the euro, in sterling. It

it's it's not going to happen. So,

you're going to be forced back into the

dollar, but like you said, and then the

past five years has shown this, 10 years

has shown it, you can have that going up

along with gold. What we're seeing is

that the real movement is coming up in

the in in the central bank world of

people moving towards gold especially

outside of the G7 arena because they

also don't have a choice. So you can see

these kind of chaotic pockets of people

trying to move around trying to come up

with things and of course one thing

you're seeing on the back of that is uh

a very very new you know movement to

hard assets trying to find a neutral

reserve. it's not really working out as

planned and so people are doing the next

best thing. And this is worth

remembering too that

this is not just a gold and silver game.

We're seeing the whole metals market,

the whole spectrum move up as people

start scrambling for anything tangible

that could be related to long-term

industrial development and national

security. So that's why we've got cobalt

up. That's why we're going to start to

see, you know, a lot of the other

metals, platinum up, palladium's up, you

know, over about 100% I believe, year

one year. And um, you know, for me, the

next big one's going to be nickel. But,

um, I I I did I did want to say one

thing about the gold chart that we

looked at when we when we started here.

I said back about a week ago that we

were going to come back into the channel

and uh we are in the channel and that

that channel now is got to be what we

look at and what we really pay attention

to and that that channel is is holding.

And if you look at the up down on it, it

worked perfectly. you know, we we have a

channel there that that channel the

slope of that line equates to I don't

know, I'm just eyeballing it. Roughly,

you know, over a year, it would be

equivalent to $2,000 in gold. So, if

we're in that channel, and we are, and

that that's a snapshot of this morning,

you know, if we're in that channel,

we're we're fine in my book, we're we're

just moving up. All the rest is noise.

Yeah, I guess we it got ahead of itself

here a little bit.

>> Exactly.

>> And then uh I mean Yeah. So um now the

resistance seems to be I think the high

yesterday was just below 5100.

>> Right. So you could see with that last

bar on this weekly.

>> Yeah,

>> we we've tested the high and the low of

the channel in one within the week.

There we are there and there. You know,

it's really not rocket science. If you

want to panic about what's happening

with gold, wait till we lose the channel

and then exam re-examine it. As long as

we're in that channel, we're we're fine.

We're we're moving up and moving quite

honestly moving up strongly. As a matter

of fact, I would expect that channel

eventually to give away. But I can't see

anything that would indicate that this

is the end of the bull market. As a

matter of fact, gold's performance in

the past week through all the chaos has

been nothing short of stellar. We are

here at five grand and we are not

budging. Gold is not moving. So, you

know, we we look at where we were two

years ago. Let's everybody get some

perspective. Let's get some perspective

on this thing. You know, I mean, we were

talking sub 2000, you know, and now

we're up here at fives and holding

nicely and firmly. I don't see why

anybody's panicking. What we just

witnessed was the usual silver games.

It's games in silver.

>> That's where That's where the game

players hide out.

>> I wanted to bring this up here. Hold on.

Uh it's the uh Yeah. Uh

because have you heard of of course of

Pierre Lond?

>> Sure. Of course.

>> Because Franco

Yeah. very successful like

>> very

>> right and he he's always said and I

listened to him in Zurich a few years

ago he made a speech he always said that

he's looking for Dow gold ratio one one

and u you know that's why like you said

you know I think uh we're nowhere near

the end of this bull market and actually

we've tested the 10 level which isn't

really that important but it's just like

a a round figure uh this trend line here

is broken and uh interestingly as well

there was where was it was in the other

one in the S&P uh gold ratio there was a

really a key support from 1929 that we

broke but yeah to me uh

when this goes near one it will mean

that uh all the um you know the

rebalancing from paper assets to hard

assets has been completed and then we

can have another huge credit cycle. But

uh

>> that's probably true. Yeah,

>> I I don't know. But but it's going to

have a very different flavor to it this

time because it's not going to include

the rebuilding of Europe. It's not going

to include the EU and a lot of the

peripheral peripheral countries are not

going to be participating. Um, you know,

I would just say no matter what anybody

thinks, we are still witnessing the

gradual movement of the financial center

of the world. Although it has not

happened and it's going to take a a lot

more time, like another decade, we're

we're moving to China. Hong Kong's got a

record number of IPOs.

>> Yeah. West to east. And I think Hong

Kong, uh, I've been told, uh, by Eric

Young, who I've interviewed and he lives

there, King Kong, uh, he says that, um,

they still follow the, uh, English

common law in Hong Kong.

>> Yes, they do. So, it's going to act as

an avenue for the mainland Chinese to to

to probably I think there was a

publication this past weekend in this

communist party paper that uh Xi Jinping

wants the yuan to become a major reserve

currency, but like you said, it's still

not there. And even Jim Rogers, he he

moved uh to Asia and taught his uh

children Chinese because he thinks

that's where uh the financial uh power

will will shift to. I guess it went from

London to New York and now it's going to

go from New York to like Shanghai. I

guess

>> Shanghai via Hong Kong, something like

that.

>> Hong Kong.

>> Hong Kong Hong Kong's property market is

turning around. Like I said, you know,

they last week they just put out a

record number of IPOs. There's a there's

a lot of action going on there. Now, the

place obviously is suffering a crippling

deflation. So, they're going to have to

do something about inflating the economy

and stimulating demand. But, uh but

that's not Hong Kong. And right now, you

can see the plan is to gradually let

Hong Kong open up into the Senzhen

province and move it out and move it out

and move it out slowly and uh to create

this greater bay area structure. But

what I wanted to say about silver, and I

want people to remember this because I

know we got a lot of silver stackers who

are out there. You know,

I know a lot of people don't like to

trade, and that's fair enough. Everybody

has to do their own thing. You know, let

let's not argue about it all day long,

right? But you you've seen that a lot of

people who were involved in silver,

some of them when the market went up,

they tried to get out of the market with

physical and they found out that the US

system, if you're not in New York, you

know, or Washington DC or maybe San

Francisco wasn't letting them out. If

you go to these small coin shops that

have no money, you know, they're going

to say, if I hand you over $10,000,

you know, I have to be able to short a

future and ride that differential until

the refiners, which are 3 to six months

backlog, come and give it out. So,

you've just witnessed the fact that, you

know, if you want to trade out, you

might have difficulty. So, you better

start to have a plan on what you're

going to do. For people who say, "Why

would you want to trade out into fiat?"

Right? Fair enough point in the long

term, but in the short term, you can see

why you would simply to buy back 40%

lower, which is why you would.

>> And also, we never know. Some people,

you know, have had the silver for a long

time and they might need to uh spend it

on something they always wanted or pay

off debt

>> or medical emergency, something your car

gets totaled. So remember, if if you

ever need to sell part of your stack,

please set yourself up a plan now how

you're going to do it. And in that, I

would like to say remember throughout

this entire period of silver screaming

north, Dubai and Singapore were always

buying spot

>> throughout the whole thing. And the

reason is obvious. When you go to the

Dubai souk and you walk around and you

see some of the gold stores there, of

which there are hundreds,

right in the in the gold shop itself,

you can see necklaces and brocades that

are worth $50,000 to $100,000 each.

Dozens and dozens of them. There's 10

to$20 million worth of gold in that

store. and they have banking facilities

so they can hand over the cash and let

you do that and and and and give it to

you in a time of extreme volatility. The

same thing in Thailand. You go to

Hasinghang on on Yarowat Road or or one

of their many other divisions, they're

handling they're handing over cash for

gold in bricks of Thai bat. And for

anybody who thinks that Thai bat's a

garbage currency, I said I suggest you

look at a chart. It's been one of the

strongest currencies of the past two

years.

>> I mean, um, here in the UK, uh, yeah,

there's not too many local coin shops

anymore, and they're usually like

collectors, numismatics and metals.

Exactly. And you might be able to deal

with them. Uh, but if you go with a,000

ounces of of silver,

you know, and it's at $100,000,

uh,

>> right? amount. They're going to have a

tough time. But there are a lot of

online dealers, bullion dealers who will

uh you can even look online and they

they're bidding for for the silver and

they will buy it and they have the cash.

So in in the US, I think there's a lot

more local coin shops and I interviewed

a a guy from Money Metals Exchange.

There's a big online dealer in the US,

Stefan Gleason, and he

>> basically said the problem in the US is

that they don't have enough refineries.

So, the refineries are not giving the

local coin shops lines of credit. So,

they're not. But one good thing about

what's going on is that if you're

looking to to buy to get into stacking,

you you go to the local coin shop, they

will probably let you have it below spot

because they want to get rid of it

because they can't send it to the

refiners.

>> Well, that's true, too. Yes. Good point.

Good point. Well, you know, I'm just

saying for people who are who are in

that game, you know, just remember we

witnessed a liquidity problem in a lot

of parts of the United States. You can

see these people just do not have the

financial muscle that you have sitting

around in Dubai and Singapore to just

say you you you want to sell that and

you want 50,000 in cash. There it is.

There's your 50K. Next.

>> Yeah. The other thing uh I I've been

speaking to a friend who worked in the

US Treasury market for decades and he's

retired but he looks at the uh market

and he says it's it's kind of uh frozen

uh the treasury market and he thinks

that's really a bad sign of there's not

much liquidity anywhere. Uh

>> oh.

>> Yeah,

>> that's a problem.

>> Yeah, that's a problem. So yeah, uh

anyway, uh as we speak here, it's like4

to 9:00 a.m. London. So silver is back

above 80. It's at 8040. Still down

seven, but we could be at 92 maybe by

the end of the day.

>> Yeah. And gold is holding on steady

4920. I I mean like you said uh

perspective you know uh we started the

year at 4,300

so still up 600 and silver started the

year at 71 and um yeah with that uh

Peter any final thoughts for the viewers

or have you said what you wanted to

already?

>> Yeah, more or less just stay with what

you stay stay with the lesson that's

been learned over the past two weeks.

Silver can get crazy. You know, we're

still in a situation where nothing

fundamentally has changed. Quite quite

the opposite actually. The long-term

underpinnings of the gold bull market

are still being built. The critical

mineral structure, the need for silver

going into AI data center applications

hasn't gone away. These are the big

things that are going to get us through

the next 10 years. And uh keep your

perspective.

>> Yeah. I I would also add uh I don't want

to get too political, but it it seems to

me in the west uh not a huge amount of

people or proportion of the population

they're starting to lose a lot of faith

and confidence in the leaders uh you

know political financial uh like

academic leaders especially with this

list that's come out and I I think

that's always bullish u metals Because

fear fiat currency is issued by these

people.

>> Yes. Yes, it is. It is. And uh again,

it's a barometer of confidence and

that's what you have to remember. you

know, when when I sat down and and and

did this book with Jim so many years

ago, you know, one of the things that we

said is, you know, the central tenant of

how you look at gold and how you uh

balance it within the mindset of your

portfolio is you have to be able to

remember that gold acts as a barometer

of confidence for the major, you know,

for for the political security and

existential security that people have

and that. Oh, there we are. And um you

know what we what we used to talk about

when we were writing this together was

you know how can we hammer down the big

ideas and then bring them into a smaller

perspective that will impact the

individual. And so, you know, even right

there on the beginning of the book, you

know, when you see there is, you know,

there's no way to save a currency system

like the one we're in, whether you like

it or not, whether you think it can hang

on for another two years or 10 years, we

will get to this point eventually where

it will have to be reset. There there is

no other way that you can avoid it. and

gold and silver are still acting as

barometers of confidence. You've seen

the wobbly thrown in on silver both by

people playing with the market because

that's where silver people hang out,

people that. But at the same time,

you're seeing a a real step shift going

on in the entire metals market outside

of gold, too. gold which is far more

monetary purely monetary to a lot of

people it is it's got very limited

industrial but in the industrial zone as

the world divides into two camps which

it's doing every single day more and

more and more people realize

the world economy is as a globalist

entity is not coming back. You better

grab what you need now and hunker down

for a decade and get ready for the fact

that you're going to need to have

stockpiles of critical minerals, metals

like silver, like platinum, palladium,

cobalt, nickel, which hasn't moved yet.

That's what I'm looking for now. And uh

you better hunker down with as much of

this as you can get. So 12 billion by

the Trump administration to build that

up. Yeah, it's a start. You're going to

need more though.

>> Oh yeah. And uh don't just let the

sovereign government do it. Do it

yourself as well. I'd say

>> exactly.

>> And uh yeah, a pocketbook of gold. Uh

I've spoken a lot about that book. I

have it here. It's like a limited

edition. Uh it's difficult to find, but

now uh Peter uh has put it in PDF form

and there's a link below in the

description if you I really uh couldn't

recommend it, you know, enough. and it's

only $25. I think that's a that's a

bargain. Uh so, Peter, thank you again

and uh we'll keep in touch.

>> All right.