Watch *BEFORE* Tomorrow [Wednesday Morning].

11 A.M 11 A.M on Wednesday November 23rd

you should have your calendar marked for

that because we are about to get a

report that should have the biggest

shift that we have seen yet

and we're going to talk about exactly

what to expect what we're looking for

and what could happen in the stock

market obviously in this video where I'm

holding this not empty cup of coffee see

there's coffee

oh

the haters I think my cups of coffee are

empty how do I get as much done without

coffee I couldn't I couldn't do it

wouldn't happen I've tried it before I

just end up napping it's bad gotta have

coffee anyway this video is brought to

you by Mumu and the Black Friday coupon

code link down below of course folks

we're talking about the Federal Reserve

minutes which come out tomorrow tomorrow

at 11 A.M I will be live streaming the

release of these and this is the first

report that is coming out

that we expect to actually see the

Federal Reserve acknowledge the

two-sided risk of hiking and Hawking

keep in mind that this is also the

meeting where Jerome Powell first came

out and suggested hey you know we're

thinking about going with a slow down 50

basis point hike we had Nikki leaks

leaking the idea about the 50 basis

point hike for December which will be in

in about two and a half weeks from now

we had a lot of enthusiasm that came

about this potential Fed rate hike

slowdown and we had a lot of uh you know

recognition from Jerome Powell that hey

you know we've we've gotta and this is

what he said in the press conference

we've got to recognize that there are

lagging effects of monetary policies

that was the uh that was the first time

the very first time Jerome Powell

actually recognized and talked about the

lag of monetary policy the Federal

Reserve Open Market Committee statement

talked about the lag Jerome Powell

talked about the lag and that means they

talked about the lag in the meeting and

tomorrow we get the minutes for those

and it's the first meeting where we

actually are going to get a lot of lag

talk the only reason markets want really

fussy is because that one reporter

started yapping his trap about how

markets were rallying on what Jerome

Powell was saying which wasn't even true

at the time leading markets to sell off

when Jerome Powell ended up going hard

suggesting that it feels like we haven't

made any progress remember the takeaways

from last fomc meeting after the press

conference okay remember some of the

takeaways drum Powell said things like

it seems like we're not making any

progress it doesn't seem like things are

any better now than they were last year

at this time it doesn't actually seem

like we have sustained declines in

inflation now do keep in mind

this Hawking came as a result of a press

reporter asking a stupid question came

before the CPI report for October which

came in low before the low PPI report

the producer price inflation report uh

and uh came you know as a result of a

prompt from a reporter who wasn't

recognizing that like just give drum

Powell the opportunity to bask in the

idea of talking about a Slowdown in

rates and that's the discussion that

we're going to analyze tomorrow in

detail but I want to tell you exactly

what to look forward to tomorrow and

what the market could do with the

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when you deposit or so what are we

looking for tomorrow we are looking for

the following

What specifically is the Fed looking for

in terms of a lack because at the moment

we still have mixed signals from

consumers going through spending they're

borrowing more money where are they

suggesting the lag is Jerome Powell in

press conferences has told us that the

monetary policy lag might actually be

very short because Financial conditions

begin to tighten in anticipation of what

the Federal Reserve says turning on the

head this idea that it takes 18 months

for monetary policy to actually affect

markets what if that theory has been

revised what if we get commentary in the

fomc minutes tomorrow that suggests the

the Federal Reserve has concluded

monetary policy lags by six months well

then it's entirely possible that the FED

might say look what if we in these

minutes what if we were to pause in

March we would then see Peak fed

heightening hiking effects essentially

in September of 2023. folks almost every

estimate for inflation for September of

2023 is substantially lower and guess

what also starts potentially happening

in September of 2023. according to JP

Morgan we actually expect finally

shelter inflation to roll over that's

when we expect the lagging owner's

equivalent rent to actually roll over

September of 2023 should be a very good

period for markets as data actually

comes in really soft on not just

inflation across the board barring any

other kind of war or whatever uh That

Could That Could temporarily Spike

inflation or or covet outbreak or

whatever my gosh not that again

so we want to see

an understanding of what the FED views

as a lag how long is that lag how many

people think it's three months six

months or nine months because that's

going to give us a very interesting

trajectory of when the FED actually is

trying to align Peak tightness right

that will be very very good for markets

and the stock market likes to price in

uh its expectations for the future about

12 months in advance

so if we start thinking we're

potentially going to be in a trajectory

of stocks leading us out of a recession

come Q2 Q3 of 2023

markets could slowly start trying to

price that in and tomorrow we're not

going to have a press That's Hawking us

that's uh that's Hawk you know leading

Jerome Powell to to talk dirty to us

what we're actually going to get is

probably just the bullish talk the

bullish talk about a pause and lags

and we want to see how aggressive that

talk is how aggressive the talk of

two-sided risks of Hawking and Hiking

are and I believe we can actually see

a decent rally in the stock market

between tomorrow

November 23rd

and right before the CPI release next

month now that's going to be very

interesting because that's December 10th

uh December 10th we get the CPI release

uh sorry it's actually this the last one

was November 10th I'm sorry it's

December 13th December 13th let me

correct myself so I believe that between

now and December 13th between this fomc

meeting in December 13th we could

actually have quite a bit of optimism

for the market that we really haven't

gotten following the CPI and PPI reports

so that means we could have an

optimistic tomorrow markets are closed

Thursday an optimistic Black Friday and

Cyber Monday week and we probably won't

start seeing softness in the market in

my opinion until about December 8th to

12th as we prepare for not only the CPI

report but also the fomc meeting for

December

see markets do not like uncertainty and

what we've noticed for really the past

year is markets tend to sell down right

before CPI meetings or releases and

right before the FED meetings so in my

opinion you potentially and this is the

kind of stuff that we're going to be

doing a lot of I think in the trading

challenge is we'll be playing some

options uh probably selling calls

selling puts depending on volatility uh

charts and such which we'll be doing

together in the stocks and psychology

MoneyGram uh starting next Monday I

believe the week of the 12th through the

16th is going to be very very tenuous

you probably have very soft inflows the

8th through the 12th as we wait for that

CPI report and then of course the FED

meeting but between now where we're

expecting tomorrow a a actually quite

bullish and dovish fomc meeting report

uh and probably the seventh to 8th

actually have a little bear Market rally

for the next couple weeks depending on

what's set in this flomc report so I

would prepare for that I would prepare

for a potential bear Market rally over

the next two weeks it might not come to

fruition but the reason I would prepare

for it is I would start thinking to

yourself

if it's a bear Market rally what do you

want to do do you want to use that as an

opportunity to get out of margin to sell

some Shock that you've over concentrated

into does it mean potentially you want

to buy the dip today in anticipation of

that those are things that you want to

think of yourself obviously even though

I'm a licensed financial advisor I can't

give you personalized Financial advice

uh but I think the biggest broad-based

Financial suggestion for everyone is get

out of margin anyway that's what to

prepare for for tomorrow I'm optimistic

about it I'd like to dye my hair green

but we did a vote in the course member

uh section and it was close but it was

like 45 55 to not dye my hair green so

anyway I did run a poll and we will

respect that so cheers to that hopefully

you joined being a course member if you

have questions about custom bundling

send me an email on kevin.com we'll see

in the next one goodbye