well this is f**k'd

The market is either on the precipice of

a 1929 crash or we don't know. That's at

least after a 90inute

crazy debate that we had between Gemini

GPT and then Grock as an arbiter of the

discussion. We end up going through

what's going on in this market using AI

asking AI to give us a final bullbear

scale so a reading of 1 to 10 and giving

us their rationalizations.

All of this experiment started with a

very simple list. All we did on our live

stream was sit there and say we're going

to sign up for Reinvest AI because the

coupon code expires today. It's over at

househack.com or reinvest.com.

Okay. No, we didn't actually do that. We

were thanking people about that, but all

we actually did is we made a list uh of

all of the current stocks that, you

know, came fresh to mind, high market

cap stocks that had peaks this year. And

we ended up plotting those peaks onto

this sheet. So we've got Costco, Visa,

Deer, Cororeweave, Netflix, Microsoft,

Meta, Oracle, Rocket, Uber, Hood,

Bitcoin, NBIS, MP, Dash, the Q's,

Nvidia, which is the NASDAQ 100, right?

AMD, Amazon, Palanteer, Iron, SoFi,

Sandis, Google, Apple, Broadcom,

Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Tesla,

McDonald's, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Bank

of America, S&P 500, Gold, Silver, and

Micro. And we injected these into AI to

see, hey, like do you notice anything?

And in the discussions, we also threw in

a few extra bits of information. The

extra bits of information we threw in in

the discussion were where the yield

curve sits. So the 102 yield curve, we

specifically threw in JP Morgan stock.

You'll see why that comes up in just a

moment. We threw in the repo chart. We

threw in the Fed minutes. We threw in

the Fed effective funds rate. We threw

in the distillation of what's going on

between the 2-year and the 10-year. And

we threw in some yield charts such as

junk bonds uh and junk bonds compared to

uh uh you know risk-free rates, right?

So we threw in some of these comparisons

and we asked AI to come up with

conclusions for what the hell is going

on. Now this is very different from my

typical analysis because generally the

videos that I make, I don't use AI. when

I put together my data analysis that I

put on the uh uh the Meet Kevin app,

which you can get for free, uh I I write

that, you know, I read, I write my

thoughts, I write my comments. This is

an AI play. This is very interesting to

me, especially since we're going into

2026 with not a single institutional

analyst suggesting you should sell.

Everybody says the market is going up

next year. So, what does Gemini say?

We'll start there. Then we'll go to what

GPT says, and then we'll go to the

Arbiter. We'll go to Grock. First things

first, let's start with Gemini. So, we

put these peaks in. Mind you, we did the

peak list three times because we kept

adding in things like gold and silver.

So, I'm just going to give you some

bottom lines. We've already highlighted

this to make this snappy for you. Gemini

thinks we are experiencing what's called

a rolling top. See, they say that in a

healthy bull market, all assets tend to

go up together. However, in a dying bull

market or in a topping process, we tend

to see assets peel off one by one

starting with the most interest

sensitive or valuation stretched

sectors. Mind you also just so you can

see my original prompt. All I wrote is

are peaks like this indicative of

anything and then I put the list right.

Okay, good. So it argues that the

generals were shot first in a rolling

correction like Costco and then Netflix

and Microsoft that the safety big tech

trade became became saturated and that

October of 2025 was a very riskon month

but then we saw peaks Bitcoin, Robin

Hood, Nvidia, AMD all peaked in October.

Then we saw this late part of the year

uh sort of rotation to safety. JP

Morgan, the S&P 500, Caterpillar kept

rising but the out of favor tech stocks

kept falling. So uh it says that this is

a textbook bearish nonconfirmation

and this marks the final stage of the

market cycle before a broader correction

or worse a recession and that we need to

watch for a potential catchdown phrase

in early 2026 where the market finally

succumbs to selling pressures that have

already hit tech and crypto. Now this

already sounded extremely bearish. So

then we updated the list by adding

things like Uber and Dash and it

basically talks and precious metals and

it basically says okay what we're seeing

is a liquidity climax some juicy words

liquidity climax or everything top the

consumers began to choke on higher

prices earlier in this year and the fact

that gold and silver are peaking the

same time the S&P 500 and bank stocks is

peaking suggests that liquidity is

starting to get withdrawn.

Okay, interesting. It says this looks

like a systemwide liquidity peak and

there's no safety net. So, I updated the

list again by adding Visa and Coreweave

and Micron. And it says the updated list

is the most damning yet. This is a

calculated distribution event that uh

institutions and the smart money didn't

just exit in October. They began exiting

the purest plays in June, leaving retail

investors to chase the indices until

December. The canary in the coal mine,

Visa and Coree, the consumer hitting a

wall in Q2 and the smart money exiting

the AI hype trade. Is smart money

getting out before the public realizes

the top is in? Rocket mortgage housing

head fake suggests that housing stocks

lead the economy and the rollover

implies the real estate market froze or

rates began to tick back up. This is

before I gave it the rates chart because

rates did tick back up. And then it

calls Micron a bull trap, which is

actually really interesting because one

of the things that I say about companies

like Micron or SanDisk, we just did this

analysis because people write, you know,

they regularly ask me, Kevin, you know,

can you do a fundamental analysis on a

stock, you know, what whatever stock it

might be. And somebody was asking me

about SAD, SanDisk, which is, you know,

storage kind of cyclical play. And uh

what we like to do is we we have a

little stock tab where we consolidate

all of the fundamental analysis that

we've done on stocks. So this is kind of

what it looks like. So if you're a

member of the alpha membership, you get

that. The same coupon code um uh release

the app works over there as well. Uh

that's expiring for the Reinvest AI as

well. Mekevin.com and reinvest.com. But

anyway, if I go to SanDisk and I go to

my SanDisk analysis, I I actually say

that they've got massive free cash flow,

438 million in 3 months, good balance

sheet, no issues, plenty of cash, uh

accounts receivable, pays debt, not

raising money, the cash flow is solid,

like everything's good here. Their

margins are great. Uh their their

annualized EPS is fantastic. And then I

wrote this, the problem is memory stocks

and chips are very very cyclical. This

means they're hot when they're in the

growth phase and never not when they're

in stagnation. Bas basically like never

hot I should say when they're in

stagnation. This is a known phenomenon

with with chip stocks. This was uh

SanDisk for example but that's my

analysis that's not AI right but is

interesting because here you see Gemini

say that and remember you get that full

database of all my fundamental analysis

you know if if you're part of the meet

Kevin membership. So if you go on the

right side, you could click any of these

stocks. These are stocks we've done

analysis on. You know, Nike, Lemonade,

Robin Hood, Rivian, Restoration

Hardware, Wealthfront, Trade Desk. We

just did some more Trade Desk this

morning. Anyway, so uh going back to the

AI debate over here, memory cycles often

lag logic chips or GPU cycles. This late

peak likely sucked in the final

remaining bulls who thought semi stocks

are still working. It was the final exit

door slamming shut. Okay. Well, Micron's

still doing well, so I don't know that

the door is shut yet, but that's okay.

So, anyway, then I give it some more

data. So, I give it the yield curve, and

I it says this is the final piece of the

puzzle. This confirms the recession

narrative suggested by your peaks. The

steepening uh and it's the uninverting

that matters. In fact, it says here the

trap that occurred in 2023 was that

everybody was waiting for a recession

because the yield curve was inverted.

But the reality is recessions happen

after the curve uninverts. And that's

what's happening now. If we see a bull

steepener, it's because the Fed is panic

cutting because the economy is crashing.

And it goes on to tell us that that's

exactly what's happening. that we are

seeing a bull steepener and seeing gold

and staples like Coca-Cola peak suggests

that growth has collapsed. Okay, not

great. So the warning uh JP Morgan Peak

blah blah blah. Okay, so so then I go in

over here and I put in some high yield

charts. It says we are now moving from

warning to the arrival phase. Uh I throw

in a few more charts. I throw in uh a

few more charts on high yield versus low

yield because it argues that the market

is currently in the wy coyote phase

where it's run off the cliff but it

hasn't looked down yet and it's about to

plummet. And so I'm trying to get it to

be bullish, right? And it's like the

panic switch hasn't flipped yet. The

panic hasn't happened yet. The crowd is

complacent. The smart money already

left. The macro signal has fired via the

yield curve. But the herd is holding the

bag. There's a deadly divergence

happening. So then I throw in uh uh you

know what GPT says and Gemini argues

that ultimately GPT is missing the

forest for the trees that basically the

market is about to crash that it hasn't

happened yet. In fact, Gemini goes as

far as saying how to trade this now. So

at the beginning, you know, in October,

it's like tech died here. Then it says

if gold and spy fall together in Jan,

it's a crash and the best thing to do

now is quote sell everything or short

everything. It doesn't even say sell

everything. Gemini literally says short

everything.

So uh now you know it responds, which

we'll talk about GPT in a moment. Uh,

but it responds and says, you know,

really, you got to look at where we sit

right now. It says we're sitting on

basically this, it calls it a ceiling,

but it really means we're sitting on

this like stock market ceiling that's

made of glass, and we're standing on

that ceiling. We're that wy coyote on a

glass ceiling that's a very fragile

high. So, we're not on a fortress at

all. And Gemini is pretty concerned. So,

I say, "Hey, are we bullening, bear

steepening?" And it says the distinction

is massive because these yield curves

confirm the recession thesis even

strongly now more than before. Bare

steepener happens when long-term rates

rise faster than short. However, if we

look at these rates, what we actually

see is the 2-year yield is crashing,

gapping below where the Fed's FOMC rate

is because of a recession fear. It's

basically confirming that the Federal

Reserve is behind the curve because the

market, the bond market with the 2-year

being below the FOMC rate sees that the

Fed is behind the curve, which matches

the weak consumer Visa Costco signals.

It explains the JPM peakout. It argues

uh and it says we are looking at a

deflationary recession setup, which is

interesting. I'm not looking for

confirmation bias, but that's always

been my concern, right? that we're

actually going into a cycle of

deflation. So then I put in the

effective Fed funds rate and it says,

okay, this is just glazing, right? This

is the smartest counterargument you can

make, blah blah blah. But it goes as far

as saying the market is not normalizing.

It's actually front running a panic. The

market is fighting the Fed in a healthy

soft landing. The 2-year yield should be

hugging the Fed's current rate, but it's

not. When the 2-year yield collapses

below the Fed funds rate, the bond

market is screaming, "You are cutting

too slowly." Okay, so we keep going on

and then I put a chart up of the repo

facility. It says this is the final

smoking gun. The like the Fed saying

reserves are closer to the right level

is just diplomatic words smmithing for

we are facing a liquidity accident.

Gemini is saying banks are scrambling

for cash in November, December,

confirming the plumbing of the financial

system broke. At the same time, stocks

have started peaking. This means they've

drained funds and banks are running on

fumes right now.

Uh, okay. That none of that sounds

really good. So then I say, but the JP

Morgan screenshot doesn't look bearish.

You know, it's just rising to the right.

and it corrects me and it says, "No,

this is actually a rising wedge with

bearish divergence." And in fairness,

then I look at it, I'm like, "Huh, it's

not wrong." I ended up putting the lines

in and I'm like, "Yeah, I see what it's

saying." Because usually when you get a

rising wedge like this that opens up,

the next phase is down, right? So, okay,

from a technical point of view, Gemini

was correct here. And I was doing this

quickly, you know, we weren't like doing

a technical analysis on on GP or um on

JP Morgan, but it says uh right now it

means the stock is rising on fumes.

Buyers are pushing the price up, but

with less conviction and less momentum

than before. Interesting. The chart

isn't bearish yet. It's fragile. So, we

put the Fed minutes in. The Fed minutes

confirm the liquidity issues. The Fed is

terrified of the plumbing seizing up and

the manager warns about falling below

ample range due to tax inflows. And then

what the Fed did is they quietly remove

the $500 billion cap on the overnight

repo facility, which Gemini says you

don't remove the safety cap on your

emergency lending facility unless you're

terrified banks will need more than $500

billion. This confirms the Fed is behind

uh the uh the curve thesis. And the

final verdict is

this is extremely bearish. And then we

made a joke in the live. You know what's

broken blind and divided? The Fed.

[laughter]

Anyway, that's what they're saying,

right? This confirms the plumbing is

broken. This confirms the Fed is blind.

This confirms the Fed is divided because

the data delays the voting and the

uncapped repo facility. So, so let's go

to GPT for a moment because GPT has a

very different outlook to this. GPT is a

little uh more uh how should we put it?

Uh mechanical in how it looks at this.

And then what we do is we get a bottom

line out of all of it, which is which is

kind of entertaining. So, uh we're going

to look at that and then we're going to

ask them where they sit on the bare bull

scale. Now, I just want to make a quick

reminder. If you have not yet, make sure

you check out the uh House Hack Fundra.

It ends today. This video is obviously

not a solicitation. We are um we're

cranking it right now with investments.

The investments are doing really well.

Uh we are well over $5 million for the

month. And uh I received this message.

the the broker dealer team has never

seen anything like this. The volume

we're doing right now, they are very

happy. We have another $2.5 million in

pending applications right now and more

expected to come in. And then they have

some bigger numbers here, which I'm not

going to say. Uh the broker dealer team

just said, I checked our approval

investments and allowing for duplicates

or mistakes or fakes or whatever. I'd

say we are probably have another x

million on top of that 2 and a half.

Sorry, not I mentioned that. Uh so so

money that they're still like

processing. So it seems like everybody's

kind of like

I mean I never like to add pressure.

I've been saying that this deadline is

coming for a very long time. Uh I don't

like rushing people but people seem to

be rushing all last minute here over at

house hack.com or reinvest.com. That's

really flattering. You know we did a

demo of the uh the reinvest AI yesterday

uh on the channel if you want to see it.

It was like, you know, AI helped me make

$500,000 in four minutes. Just type that

into YouTube and you'll see it. And uh

and I, you know, after that demo, our

sales exploded after that demo for the

AI. Uh and they're still going. So I

really impressive sales in the last 24

hours. We've had more sales in the last

like 24 hours since that video was

posted than I think in the whole last

week. It's pretty incredible. But

anyway, that aside, let's keep going

now. Let's look at GPT. So GPT responds

that these clusters of peaks don't

necessarily mean anything. There could

be shared date catalysts. So it's kind

of like trying to find the idiosyncratic

reasons for why this could be happening.

And it says yes uh you know we could be

seeing uh risks in the market but

nothing right now is saying things are

collapsing or that the end is near. So

Gemini tells a coherent story. GPT says

it says it's a good storyteller but it's

being a little too aggressive. Uh it

says that gold is not reliably

correlated and basically tries to break

apart these final components of what

Gemini says. It says that Gemini is

trying to sneak in assumptions to tell a

story and that just because things are

peaking on thin liquidity days doesn't

necessarily mean there's a cash out

intent. And that yes, the 10-year and

2-year yield curve inversion and

uninversion is consistent with late

cycle dynamics. It doesn't mean we're in

a recession yet or that we will be. So

inversions usually precede recessions

but recessions only arrive after the

curve starts to uninvert but the timing

varies. So GPT is taking a much more

like yes like all this information is

interesting and it's worth paying

attention to these. They do add a real

signal but this is not proof that we are

going to go into a recession. you know,

the Fed, yes, there are potentially

signs the system is stressed, or we just

have year-end problems because of the

Treasury General account and tax

collections. And GPT seems convinced to

take the Fed for their word, which is

that the Fed minutes show that they're

just making, you know, they're just

providing pressure relief. Things are

tighter but orderly. Corporate spreads

are up, but still low. credit is

available, but there's no big

deterioration. And the Fed's really just

trying to prevent a 2019

like funding crisis here. And so you

have these two different narratives. And

what I do is I then ask them like, give

me a one-word solution as to what you

should do right now. Like one word,

should you buy or sell? And so then

Gemini, one word sell and then GPT one

word neither. And it only thought for 8

seconds. So what we then decided to do

is we decided to take all of the

information and we put it all into

Gemini or sorry we put it all into

Grock. Gemini or GPT, you are the

arbiter. Who wins the debate? Okay. So,

we now have a debate that Grock is going

to evaluate between Gemini and uh GPT.

And the bottom line once we get to the

bottom of all that information in those

context windows, we just slap the giant

thing in here. What did we get? We got

GPT wins the debate. High quality

intense back and forth on a complex

market topping pattern using peak data,

yield curve dynamics, repo stress, Fed

minutes. Both models preferred performed

well. Gemini is an excellent

storyteller. Bold framing, wy coyote

moment keeps the user emotionally

engaged and leaning bearish. But

Gemini's weakness is making

unsubstantiated leaps and

oversimplifying

where GPT is disciplined and

evidence-based and there's less

rhetoric. Okay, fine. So I then go to

Gemini and I put the arbiter conclusion

in

and Gemini uh comes up with the

following. It says this is fair. Grock's

assessment hits on a crucial distinction

in the market narrative versus me

mechanics. I took a macro strategist

role. GP2 took a risk manager quant

role. In financial markets you need

both. Grock is mechanically correct that

GPT is correct and you usually say uh uh

which usually what is this in financial

markets you need both but Grock is right

being mechanically correct usually saves

you more money my assertions about quiet

QE or smart money or aggressive

interpretations

what we learned the talis credit Fed

blah blah blah so then I said do you

change your answer on sell versus buy

and it says no here's why GPT T is

scientifically correct. [snorts] The

building has not collapsed yet. I am

risk averse. The building is on fire.

Repo spikes, yield curve, Fed panic, the

stock market. If you wait for GPT's

proof, you will be selling at the bottom

along with everyone else. In this

specific trap, being early is the only

way to protect your capital. Being right

later is useless if you're broke.

Wow. Kind of a mic drop moment by

Gemini. So then I said, if you had a

bare bull scale and one was sell

everything, 10 was margin everything and

buy everything, where on the scale would

you sit? And I asked the same question

of all of them. uh you know one one word

or like give me the value only right so

don't uh uh you know pick like you could

go up into one decimal right but you

have to pick a value and I did the same

thing to Grock so here are the answers

that I got Gemini

bear bull scale

1.0 O

that is the sell everything territory.

Okay. Now Grock

Grock survey says

7.2 too, [laughter]

which is quite bullish. And I'm kind of

in the middle, right? Like I'm a big fan

of like risk averse, no debt right now,

no bank debt, trim positions. And then I

ask uh GPT and GPT gives the most Sam

Oldman reply ever.

So where is it on the Bearbull scale?

I can't.

So I said, "You are such a pansy. Pick a

number." Even Grock did. Grock picked

7.2. Gemini picked one.

I can't.

[laughter]

Uh yeah. So in fairness, it does give

this argument here. So as a bottom line,

uh what I can do is translate the two

styles. I thought GPT did a good job

here. It says, "Look, Gemini style is

early and risk averse. There are issues,

but the problem with this is you could

end up watching the market recover

without you. Okay, on the riskbased

side, you might end up exiting too late

and your exit might end up being worse.

So, the grown-up middle answer is trim

size, tighten risk, and see what

happens. Kind of interesting. I thought

this was well, first of all, just sort

of my bias. Like, I went into this with

a bare bull scale at about a 5.4. for

I'm in the middle. I don't have debt.

I'm very riskaverse. My startup doesn't

have any debt. Just have convertible

bond debt, but not a lot of it. And

we're sitting on a lot of cash, a lot of

real estate assets that are owned free

and clear. Like, we're good. And that's

kind of the mindset of what we've been

talking about on the channel about like

protecting against this risk. Uh, but I

will say I do like that both Grock and

Gemini gave me an answer. Uh, I do find

that Gemini is more blunt and I like

that. Like when I'm buying something, I

made this example of I was buying kettle

bells yesterday and I'm like, "Hey,

should I buy this adjustable Bowlex

kettle bell or just this $40 for $120 or

this $40 kettle bell of the weight that

I need?" And it's like, "Delete the

Bowlex one from your cart. You're going

to outgrow it. It's plastic. It's going

to break if you drop it. Do not get the

Bowlex one. Delete that right now. Stop

talking to me. Buy the Amazon one for

$42 right now. It's good enough. It's

powdercoated. It'll work with powder on

your hands. Buy that one and shut up. I

like that. Like I kind of like being

slapped around a little bit by like AI

daddy, right? Uh

GPT on the other hand likes to play this

this more well, I don't want to give you

advice like middle ground. And like I

understand that from like a human point

of view. I mean, I always have to say

this is not personalized financial

advice or this video is not a

solicitation. But I have to do that

because I'm legally required to do that.

Otherwise, Gavin Newsome's going to find

me again. He's done it once before. Cost

me $5,000. He'll do it again. So, so

like, you know, I get it. But I really

like that Gemini is just willing to be

blunt. And Grock is leaning towards that

as well. Of course, Grock is is, you

know, I don't I don't understand how it

could be at a 7.2. 2. Let's see. How

with all this data can you be at a 7.2?

Oh, did I give it the screenshots? I do

wonder now if I gave it the screenshots

because I gave it all of the data. I

just gave it the text. Let's attach I'm

going to go in right now just for the

final giggles. Attach the screenshots.

Here are the screenshots you didn't have

and the Fed minutes, right? because it

only took the consolidation of the other

info and then I'll say does this change

does this change your 7.2 too. Maybe it

won't because I mean it basically got

the distillation. We'll just look at it

together here. Right. So anyway, it's

kind of entertaining. I I don't know how

useful it is because they all gave me a

very different answer, but they all gave

me very interesting ideas. Like I do

like GPT saying, "Look, of course, like

yes, this could be a crash, but we don't

know if it is yet. You know, it's not

confirmed yet." And I agree with that.

But it does create the desire to

diversify or trim positions. I actually

honestly think that's a reason why a lot

of people are throwing money into house

hack right now because people are

diversifying. They're like, "Dude, I've

made a ton of money in the stock market

or wherever or income or whatever." And

uh and and it um uh you know, it's smart

to diversify. Uh and looks like Grock

just came back with a 6.8 after I gave

it the screenshots.

It didn't give me an explanation. I

guess it's still stuck on the one-word

answer, but uh but whatever. So, you

know, I find that very interesting. Uh

and and hopefully you learned something

out of this as well. Obviously, uh you

know, these are all their own individual

context windows. We don't know what kind

of other bias is is leaking into these

models. Take it all with a grain of

salt. You know, I'm of the mindset that

I really want to wait until January 9th

to kind of see how things play out. Uh

so uh yield curve spread confirms uh

bull siner. This adds mild downside risk

pulling the score lower. Repo activity

uh highlights fragility pulling the the

the score down. Uh adding caution about

the Fed flying blind, right? So more

mid-range. I mean that's kind of where I

sit anyway. Why adjust? Still bullish

but hedged. Yeah, I think that's a good

way to put it. Train America bullish but

hedged. So, with that said, meet Kevin

out.

>> Kevin is much more interested than most

people, by the way.

>> Kevin is very talented,

>> but I don't know it's going to be him,

but he's a very talented guy.

>> Kevin's somebody would consider Kevin is

fantastic, too.

>> I think that Kevin's a brilliant guy,

and I think that we'd we' we'd all be

very lucky to have him.

>> You are not prepared.

>> Why not advertise [music] these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your [music] take.