The Technical Warnings: Watch Before March 10.

vehicle analysis holy smokes look at

what the markets just did and we're only

going to look at this from a technical

point of view technical means lines

fundamentals mean well you're going into

Financial reports which most people

don't do I obviously try to do that

every single day in my course member

live streams sometimes on the channel as

well though fundamental analysis it

takes a little it takes a little bit you

know depth and understanding because

there are ways you can get juked with

fundamental analysis we're actually

going to be talking about that regarding

how you could get juked by investing in

a company like silver Aid capital and

whether or not you're even interested in

investing into a company like that it's

really amazing to see how the

fundamentals could really be rigged even

though they're technically legally

rigged that way it's it's remarkable so

that's why using technical analysis in

my opinion it can be phenomenal as well

because you can get away from you could

sort of escape

the trickery that goes into fundamentals

and look broadly here at what the market

is doing what I really enjoy about this

downtrend over here is that obviously

the downtrend on the NASDAQ this being

the QQQ has broken we also just tested

approximately that 23 retracement line

and what I really enjoy here is that we

had a very very strong support level

here uh in that we had the same 200-day

moving average as the 23 Fibonacci that

set up a really strong support level and

sure enough look what happened green

Candlestick yesterday indices were up

across the board but what's remarkable

about the fact that indices were up

across the board is that treasury yields

had gone as high as

4.08 on Thursday really setting up for

potentially a punishing Friday but what

we actually got if I click the right

button there we go we actually got was

every index up 1.17 on Dow 1.61 on s p

NASDAQ up almost 2 percent even the

Russell was up volatility index look at

that down at 18.4 this is remarkable the

vix is plummeting at the same time often

measured as the fear index and then over

here you see bonds right back to 3.96

now still really high but look at that

an 11.5 basis point decline in the

10-year now they're some of the ism

numbers that came out were a little less

bad than potentially they were feared

given that some of the numbers that came

out three days ago were a little scary

and that's why things started pumping

and so we saw a little bit of data

support here as well but personally I

wouldn't be surprised if from a

technical point of view we are

confirming this trend now that's

fantastic that doesn't mean we're going

to have a very smooth Nike Swoosh style

recovery which I regularly talk about

that we might you know we've basically

had this long period down now what we're

looking for is a nice long period to the

upside but it's going to come with

volatility and I think on a technical

basis we could probably trade between

these Fibonacci lines here and expect

that every single month we're going to

be hanging our hats on the next report

so for example the Catalyst you should

already have written down on a Post-It

note on your desk or wherever obviously

that's going to be March 10th that's

your labor report that's this week so

March 10th is this week that's that's

going to be pretty important because

we're going to look for wage price

increases and then obviously what's the

actual result of the labor report that

is going to be the 10th then uh right

after that I think it's Tuesday up

Tuesday on the 14th we'll get our CPI

and then the 22nd we'll have the FED now

even if we go through those reports and

let's say we got reports that said look

things are going to take a little bit

longer we're going to need some more

patience but despite needing a little

bit more patience the trend is that

inflation is going away and the market

is

spending through the recession maybe we

won't actually hit a very very deep dark

recession if anything we have something

shallow yes Staples and retailers get

hit but beyond that what happens

hopefully we end up testing our next

retracement line here now what would be

phenomenal about that is even if we hit

that next line ideally we we exceed it a

little bit I would not be surprised if

what ends up happening and this is just

a prognostication about you know four

three four weeks out is once we cross

that 38.2 percent level up here I

wouldn't be surprised if we potentially

then retrace back to it while of course

then we wait for the data releases in

April that's going to be 2023 in a

nutshell in my opinion I think it's a

slow chug up and while we're chugging

along on the up we're going to keep

falling back to these levels especially

when we get a double support like we did

here where the simple 200-day moving

average literally underpinned the 23.6

percent uh Fibonacci retracement in my

opinion this is just my opinion in my

opinion for us to actually drop back to

this zero percent Phoebe level which was

hell okay this was hell in October

back in October remember the sentiment

now I'm purposefully backing away from

sort of what the FED is saying or

fundies or things that are going on I'm

talking sentiment and technicals okay

the sentiment in October was we are

going to get Paul volckert inflation is

not under control we've been juked too

many times we got juked in the spring we

got juked in the summer we got juked in

the fall and that was basically the

Jukes were oh inflation's going down no

it's not it's going higher oh no

inflation's going down oh no it's going

higher we had those fears that actually

established real opinions that we could

potentially face a 1980s Paul volcker

environment that fear is going away and

it's my opinion that the more that fear

goes away the more we say no no now

we're not going to get Paul volckert we

are going to deal with inflation that's

higher for longer and rates that are

higher for longer but in my opinion the

more Paul volcker goes away the more the

market goes up now do I think we can go

to all-time new highs uh you know just

because inflation is slowly going away

absolutely not it's going to take a

while and I it would not make sense for

us to be at all time new highs until we

really get inflation back to you know

relatively on the path to two percent

probably not until my guess end of 2023

maybe early 2024 and there are red flags

right I mean look at this look at the

what happened with break evens yesterday

as soon as Treasury plummeted yesterday

what happened with break evens well

deployment or the break even skyrocketed

I mean look at where we sit right now we

sit on a break-even level well above the

October levels that we faced the October

levels were what aligned with the bottom

of the market

October is when the NASDAQ hit the

bottom a lot of stocks hit their bottom

around October some stocks hit their

bottom around over here June and July

and our break even inflation rate is now

at almost 2.8 percent now obviously

we're a far cry from what we had earlier

the year or in the year but this is this

trend is not fantastic I will say I'm

not happy about this explosion of the

bond markets inflation expectation the

bond market here is saying dude this is

not going to be rapid disinflation this

is going to take a lot of time and there

are two trains of thought here that one

train very simple is the longer it takes

the dirtier the recession is going to be

the more of an EPS crash you have and

these technicals were those are going to

be once we get those bad earnings those

are going to be what push us back to the

zero percent fit maybe even break it

lower and that's entirely possible but

if that is true it's really saying that

the fear in October we had was really

earnings or multiples and not Paul

volcker all right think about that if in

October we hit lows in the stock market

because we were fearful that oh no

earnings are going to go down uh or you

know we were going to get some kind of

multiple compression which obviously we

did you know the first half of the crash

is usually your multiple D rating that's

where you get compression think

understand multiples like this very

simply if you have ten dollars of

earnings and your company is selling for

10 times earnings per share it's a

hundred dollar stock right 10 times the

multiple of 10 100 if you still have ten

dollars of earnings but your ten dollars

turns into five dollars well that's ten

times five fifty dollar stock stock

trades down 50 if now your earnings go

down another 50 percent you know from

from ten dollars of earnings and you're

down to five times a multiple of five

boom your Stock's worth 25 bucks right

those are the two big fears and so that

is sort of this traditional way to look

at the stock market that the two fears

that drive the stock market down are

multiples in earnings my opinion is that

this bottom over here was actually not a

bottom set by the fear of multiple

earnings compression yes that helped

contribute to this but I think we

actually got pushed to these depths

because of the Paul volcker fear and if

we get if somebody came down Jesus

Christ came down right now and said we

will not have a Paul volcker I would not

personally be surprised if we actually

sit on top of the 38.2 level in other

words I think this bottom part of the

phoebees over here is your Paul volcker

fear and this part of earnings over here

or this part of the market over here the

upper sort of 62-ish percent I think

that's where your earnings and multiples

are so I think really the part that

stretched us to the bottom was Paul

volcker fear and as that goes away it

sort of reiterates the Nike Swoosh

recovery that's my opinion now from a

technical basis hopefully this remains

to be correct so far it is we could do

something similar over on the Spy I

actually don't even have babies drawn on

the Spy so let's go draw them together

uh so let's try not to make a mess of

this let's clean this up a little and

let's see what we have here so we're

gonna go with 472 32 on the spy oh I'm

messing with uh the wrong item here this

is what happens if you have too many so

this is our downtrend let's go ahead and

remove that for a moment there we go

Weeble let me actually adjust this

properly 472 32 and 346.52 there we go

here's our Phoebe so on the on the S P

500 on the Spy you're actually sitting

at a substantially higher level already

right I I personally am much more

exposed to the NASDAQ style uh stocks

than I am uh spy stocks I think spy

stocks actually still have a potential

correction ahead of them much like a

video I covered yesterday where in the

report yesterday there was basically

talk about this potential 50 correction

of the Spy I don't think it's going to

be that brutal but do I really think

that the Spy should be trading at these

levels where we're at uh let's see we're

we're sitting already above the 38 uh

0.2 level and and we've already been

breaking above that into more the 61

range personally not the biggest

believer in that personally I think the

Spy has the greatest risk now we'll see

big fan though personally the QQQ so

maybe I just pay attention more to this

and this is sold down substantially more

by the way yesterday in the course

member livestream I have to say we did a

uh and I know we're talking ta here but

we did a fundamental on uh Salesforce

wow wow the fundamentals are actually

really really good over on Salesforce I

don't know why that tangent came up but

hey you never know what you're going to

get with Kevin so

um look from from a technical point of

view uh in my opinion we could actually

have a pretty nice buy the dip

opportunity in the next two weeks here

and my take is that it wouldn't I think

it would be very difficult for and I

think we could write this down I can't

guarantee we could take this to the bank

but I think it's going to be very

difficult to break this line the uh the

approximately 3E 3 13 3 12 line here

it's going to be very difficult to break

312 on QQQ before the 10th and the 14th

there's there's no way in my opinion

like it would be shocking in my opinion

to break the 312 on QQQ before uh the

10th or 14th because those are huge

Catalyst days those are huge fear days

and remember institutions don't buy

before reports they buy after reports

because here's the thing you have to

think about it this way institutions are

very different from retail you can do

whatever the hell you want with your

portfolio nobody cares

it's your portfolio an institution

though if they buy before CPI or before

the jobs report and then those reports

come in hot and the market Falls they're

going to get calls from people being

like you idiot why would you buy before

the report why would you do that I'm

taking my money out of your fund that's

that's what you get with institutions so

you know there could be institutional

people watching this right now and

they're like damn it Kevin you're right

now or or there's maybe some people who

like no no no I'm a contrarian I do the

fine whatever point is I believe my

opinion the vast majority of

Institutions or Traders or employees at

trading firms have to wait until after

the reports that's why I think we see

such volatility after the reports

because the institutions basically wake

up and they go okay like they don't

really care that they missed the maybe

three or four percent that they could

have captured before the report they

care about being part of the trend after

the report whether that's to the upside

or the downside so uh personally I think

from a technical point of view if we

were if for whatever reason uh between

Monday and Thursday we exceeded 312 over

here in my opinion it's a cell uh now of

course if that report comes in uh really

because I think we're like come probably

come late Thursday I really think come

late Thursday you don't want to be

sitting above this trend line uh you

want to be below 312 on the NASDAQ come

after the report it's anyone's guess if

we get a soft report great fantastic

maybe we get back to the 50 level uh

which we haven't been at we haven't been

at the 50 level when we last got

rejected in August the last guy rejected

in August we were still I mean August

was was pretty wild but anyway uh very

clearly part of that downtrend right

anyway if we can break that or let me

put it this way the only way to really

sustain this support in my opinion is

very very positive uh reports for

February inflation and jobs I don't know

if we're going to get that I'm very

confident that we're going to get 25 BP

from the FED but from a technical point

of view I think the only way we really

sustain sitting above 312 is with

positive reports here or at least

somewhat benign reports we just need to

make sure we get rid of the Paul volcker

as long as there's no crazy fearful move

to the upside I think we're relatively

safe expecting to to run over this if we

get a terrible report uh depending on

how bad it is we'll depend how how

closely we retrace I mean we could end

up you know with a basic report that's

not that fantastic wouldn't surprise me

to trade sideways sitting right on that

23 6 line

a terrible report that evokes the fears

of Paul volcker we're going right back

to the zero fibbies so so there's a lot

of downside there I would almost say

there's probably more downside risk than

there is upside risk just based on sort

of uh the TA spread here but uh that's

just the nature of the Fibonacci

retracements right I mean if you're at

23.6 you only have about 15 percent of a

retracement going up to the next level

whereas you've got about 23 percent of

the downside so you actually have more

on the FIB levels skewed to the downside

risk

uh anyway so so that's sort of my the

way I would be thinking about this those

Catalyst dates are going to be

everywhere everything this this Market

is solely trading off those caddy dates

and uh I I think after we get these uh

these reports here uh as long as they're

benign

fed goes 25 we remove Paul volcker my

opinion we're gonna start testing and

playing with that uh that 38.2 level and

maybe even writing on it so I'm excited

obviously with ta no guarantees but

that's what I'm seeing that's what I'm

reading uh and uh and aligning with what

I'm seeing from the fundamental point of

view

also makes sense doesn't mean you can't

be wrong but that's my take so hopefully

that's useful from a TA point of view

next up

I talk crypto

all right let it fall I love the deals

oh you're terrible says someone here in

the comments

uh someone's talking about snakes in the

comments when do you sleep at night

tangents are good thank you for that

uh let's see can you explain what will

happen realistically if we get Paul

volcker yeah sure

I mean just basically briefly it's like

it's it's hell right so

Paul volcker scenario means the FED has

lost control

there will be utter panic in the markets

because that means the Fed

has really really failed

that means they were wrong about

transitory inflation they were wrong

about disinflation they were wrong about

the soft Landing

the trust in the FED will go away I I I

I will I like if we go Paul volcker I'm

taking two years off man I don't even

like that it's going to be so shitty uh

okay I probably won't take off because I

just can't not work but like

you don't you don't you don't want to go

there uh I mean you're looking at uh

rates on anchoring uh an actual real

estate crash not this sort of real

estate softening that we've had but like

a real real estate crash

uh you're you're looking at fear levels

uh the likes of which we haven't seen

probably since the 70s uh and early 80s

the trust in the dollar I I don't know I

mean I think the whole world would would

have issues so I mean the dollar would

still probably rise because it'd be the

safest of the crappiest you know paper

currencies but uh yeah yeah you you

don't want to go there I mean the the

low levels of the stock market that we

saw in October would be a joke compared

to uh what would happen with under a

real Paul volcker scenario you don't

even want to you don't want to think

about it

Paul volcker would not be good for

Howton Paul volcker is not good for

anyone