Watch BEFORE Friday Morning [Stock Market Warning] + AMC.

hey everyone me kevin here tomorrow is a

very big day not only is it friday

and it's the end of a short trading week

it is

the first trading week of june we'll get

to see what happens with amc is it going

to end

the week strong are we going to see the

squeeze actually start getting squeezed

but folks it is jobs day and that's what

we have to talk about

now along with a little bit of talk

about amc but first i want to give a

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logan paul in fact if you want to watch

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link down below let's now talk about

jobs jobs data last month came out

as a complete disaster we were expecting

1 million jobs to be added

we only had 266 000 jobs added

it was the biggest disappointment we had

seen in a very long time

it started leading inflation

expectations to almost immediately tilt

downwards because the fear was that wait

a minute

if the economy overheats too quickly if

the

economic engine starts ramping up too

fast and we get to

maximum employment too quickly

that means rates are going to get bumped

sooner because remember the federal

reserve's

dual mandate price stability price

stability is what the federal reserve

achieved when they

ruled a money printer okay when they

went nuts back

in march of last year and said whoa

don't panic don't panic keep the banks

open keep the credit flowing keep

everything going we'll just backstop

everything we'll literally bail out

everything we'll even buy bonds of

corporations which recently the federal

reserve has

started to unload because they realize

they're not needed anymore to provide

this kind of price stability

that's one part of the dual mandate but

the second part of the dual main date

has to do with

maximum employment and maximum

employment has recently been

more defined as all races

and sexes this is important because you

don't just want max

employment for white males but you also

want max employment for women blacks

hispanics asians

everyone for example right now while the

average united states unemployment rate

is around 6.1 percent

black unemployment is around 8.6

it's much higher than white unemployment

so these are

important things but the point is the

federal reserve has a dual mandate

price stability and max employment and

tomorrow's number will be

heavily scrutinized by the federal

reserve which anything that gets heavily

scrutinized

by the federal reserve is something that

could guide their interest rate making

decision

will be heavily scrutinized by markets

and this is where you've got to know

what the expectations are

so that way as soon as that jobs data

comes out

we will have the answer now i will be

live streaming the second this job data

comes out

this means when it comes out at 5 30 in

the morning california time tomorrow

i will be awake to provide you exactly

what that jobs data

was the second it comes out and here's

the current expectation so we're going

to grab the ipad here

and we're going to write down the

current expectation so we are

expecting i guess i should start with

last month okay

the last month expectation was 1 million

we got 266. what happened on a big miss

well on a big miss we had inflation

expectations go down

and we actually didn't have a horrible

uh cycle for

tech tech and some of the consumer

discretionary stocks

they kind of traded sideways maybe

slightly up

we had the big meme movement and i don't

like to say me movement i prefer to say

momentum movement

that's just what the media uses so the

momentum movement right

this has kind of been characteristic of

the last month and we've actually

also seen some commodity prices go down

some of that does have to do with china

trying to do whatever they can to fight

commodity prices from going through the

roof because they have been going

through the roof for the past six months

it's been crazy

but we've also seen cryptocurrencies

come down now some of these things could

have potentially just happened because

of the weight of

many shorts in the crypto market or or a

lot of short selling in other parts of

the markets

so this is not all directly correlated

to jobs with certainty

these are just things we saw happen over

the last month inflation

expectations i should say expectations

went down we had tech attacking consumer

discretionaries kindness trade sideways

mean momentum stocks went up

we had commodities go down and crypto

went down okay

so what are the expectations now well

right now

we are expecting let's see i've got a

note here that says we're expecting

the current survey to come in at 650

000.

so 650 000 is the expectation for jobs

so we're going to write that down here

650 and i would say if we get

anything within about a hundred thousand

of that so

550 to 750 the market will probably

respond in a relatively benign manner

we might see a little bit of movement

here a little bit of you know minute to

minute

movement in certain stocks but i don't

think we'll see any kind of longer run

movement however if we dramatically

miss again and we come in with something

i would say

under 500 000 so if we came in with like

a 499

or 450 which i don't think will happen i

i personally think will probably be

somewhere in like this range here

which might be like 625 to 550 something

like that we'll see

hopefully we're booming in some regards

but if we're in

in let's let's make this very clear if

we come in super super low so we come in

like 450 or below again

uh again i would expect inflation

expectations to go down

now some people wonder like wait a

minute wait a minute why would inflation

expectations go down

doesn't less people working lead input

costs to go up

so inflation is very very complicated

and even though that

intuitively makes sense it's just not

what we're seeing in the market we're

seeing inflation expectations go down

and that's because we're not expecting

the economy to

overheat everything right now has to do

with economy overheating

not so much with supply chain pressures

when it comes to

jobs don't get me wrong supply chain

pressures are massive

but they're already starting to

alleviate neo

xbang and other companies are already

starting to mention where they're

starting to see

a relaxation and the amount of supply

chain constraints

so that's it's going to be that's going

to be transitory and i hate to use that

word because i know the fed uses it we

don't really believe the fed

all the time but anyway if we get a

super low shocker i would

expect inflation expectations to go down

and honestly

it could be good or neutral for tac

consumer discretionaries

and we might see a little bit of the

same i wouldn't be surprised if we saw

commodities go down even more

and it's possible that crypto could go

down too because the lower our inflation

expectations generally the less people

are investing in crypto as a hedge

against inflation right just something

to think about now

if we get a more moderate response i

think we might just kind of continue the

same

flatish trends that we've had so if we

get a response that's somewhere within

this range over here

we'll probably get some more of a muted

moderate response

the bigger catalyst and this is the one

i think we really pay attention to

is what happens if all of a sudden we

play catch-up from last month

and we get this massive beat now this is

possible i'm going to say this is

probably about 35

right here and that we're probably 65

leaning towards the lower side

uh and and that's because unemployment

money is still flowing in most states

right now and most states are still

getting into that reopening ramping

right so i could be wrong here

we could get pleasantly surprised

tomorrow which is really good for our

gdp it's good for our economy

but it's probably going to mean that

inflation expectations are going to go

up

it's very possible that because of that

we could finally see a little bit of

resurgence in crypto prices

it's also possible that maybe there'll

be some pressures on commodities though

this is going to be

less clearly linked we know mostly

because supply chains are starting to

catch up on

spreading out their commodity demand and

we're starting to see those supply

chains repair a little bit

it is possible if this number really

really really comes in high

that you could see tech consumer

discretionary some of the higher valued

companies

drop on on that news because that'll

create that fear again of oh no

no no we're overheating because in in

very simple terms here you want to

remember

that overheating so i'm going to put

over

heating i guess i just wrote the whole

thing out overheating is generally seen

as

bad strong is

seen as good and a

weak or sort of uh under heating

under heating or cool is also seen as

bad right because this right here under

heating this is deflationary

and generally this is bad too

strong over here this is bad because

this is where you get into that sort of

hyper inflationary direction

you don't really want to be here you

really want to be in this well

quite frankly two percent inflation

category where

you have strong growth which strong

growth usually rides on top of inflation

so you have this like

three to five percent gdp growth per

year riding on top of about two percent

inflation this is where we want to be

this is why you've got such a bizarro

market to understand because it's not

it's not binary it's not left or right

and it's it's really a lot of it is well

to be determined by

how people react and how markets react

and then how traders amplify that

reaction so it's a little bit of a mess

all the way around

uh but uh look i i mean tomorrow's gonna

be a big day we're gonna cover the

gdp data i'm sorry we're going to cover

the jobs data right away

we're going to cover what happens with

amc

uh quick update on amc just so you have

it as well oh and remember that floyd

uh mayweather and a logan paul

fight if you're interested in coming to

hang out with us in person we'll have a

little pizza party i know it's pricey

but check out that link down below it's

a donation to the campaign

so uh it's definitely going towards a

good cause but check that link out down

below

regarding amc i do want to just provide

a quick update that uh i have about 62

000

worth of exposure obviously uh amc is

down about 18

today and it's down in the after hours

another like eight percent

so obviously you know in the short term

you don't feel too good when you got a

dip like that especially when you've got

uh some plays that are a little shorter

term uh my

uh options will get me into a 52

000 hold position at 49

per share on amc and then i do have some

40

calls as well these are very very very

risky plays

and uh they they will either do very

well

or not so well and so we'll see what

happens the good news is

i'm very i'm bullish i'm bullish on the

short term because we haven't even seen

any kind of squeezing begin

so it's just going to be a matter of a

waiting game it's a big big big big

waiting game

so we'll see what happens folks thank

you so very much for watching if we can

outlast the short sellers

that's a good thing