Bitcoin to $1,000,000 Million Dollars.

bitcoin at one million dollars per coin

what would it take what would it take

for bitcoin to become

so powerful that bitcoin could go to one

million dollars per coin

a digital construct of computer code

that we can't touch or

feel hey everyone meet kevin here in

this video i want to provide

two scenarios and one of these scenarios

got a piece of

data this morning that could help the

scenario of

a one million dollar bitcoin become a

reality

but first it's worth mentioning here

that there are a variety of estimates in

terms of what the potential future value

of bitcoin could be

many people think bitcoin can be worth

seventy five thousand dollars a hundred

thousand dollars two hundred thousand

dollars kathy wood over at arc invest i

think

a bitcoin could easily be worth

somewhere around four hundred

thousand dollars per coin and there are

really estimates

all over the place but really bitcoin

one million dollars a coin why are we

even talking about that is that even

close to reality

well i spoke with ali moz this weekend

and we had an interview here on the

channel on the podcast version of this

channel

and folks this is the clip of him

talking about

bitcoin and just listen to what his

belief is

in the long term uh you know i think

there's a world where like

10 years from now each bitcoin is a

million dollars

um oh my god um you can see

i'm actually in disbelief because just

the concept of bitcoin going to a

million dollars

seems so detached from reality today

but then again we're talking about this

digital construct

that just three months ago was trading

for not

52 000 but 17 000

and if we go back a year ago was trading

for

a low during the pandemic of around

five thousand dollars per coin

this has now 10xed just over the last

year and if we go out to five years the

current

bull run of bitcoin has been outpaced by

any bull run we have ever seen before

for bitcoin

now it certainly helps that paypal and

square have bought a ton of

cryptocurrency

bitcoin so that people can invest in

bitcoin on their platform or through

their platforms like

cash app or directly with paypal it

helps that apple has suggested hey

let's integrate bitcoin payments into

apple pay and it certainly helps

that elon musk the meme lord of

twitter pushes bitcoin as potentially

the most important cryptocurrency of

the world the one that will be on top

of all others and as he says

maybe this was inevitable and we're not

sure if he means moving to the

blockchain was inevitable

or tesla investing one and a half

billion dollars into

bitcoin was inevitable or maybe in

hindsight dogecoin becoming the biggest

meme of cryptocurrency

but yet also making people a ton of

freaking

money well folks let's talk about the

potential scenarios

that i see for bitcoin so scenario

number one

is one that we've talked about before

and i'm going to give a quick recap on

scenario number one

but i'm most interested in talking about

scenario number two

it's one that we haven't really talked

about on this channel it's one that

refers to bitcoin as a million dollars a

coin

and what it would take to actually get

it to go there

so here are the scenarios scenario

number one in recap

is the scenario of the federal reserve

inflation

basically drives bitcoin's price up

as inflation rears itself in march april

and may

but as inflation recedes when we look at

year-over-year inflation data we expect

there to be

a spike in inflation in march april and

may because we'll be comparing to last

year's lows

and then that'll level off and when

inflation recedes we could see bitcoin

pricing retract

because people invest in bitcoin as a

potential inflation hedge

now not everyone everyone does not use

bitcoin as an inflation hedge

but enough people do that even just the

perception of

inflation and more money printing seems

to lead

bitcoin's price to go up and so

scenario number one says okay well if

that's true and even if it's

perceived to be true and even if it's

only perceived to be true by half of

bitcoin purchasers or

even a quarter of all bitcoin purchasers

then it would make sense that as

inflation expectations rise bitcoin will

go up if inflation expectations fall

bitcoin could fall and so scenario

number one says

the fed is right the fed sees inflation

coming again

march april may bitcoin goes up bitcoin

settles when inflation goes away

bitcoin goes up when inflation comes

back which might be when we begin to

open our economy again

and inflation comes in the form of all

of a sudden a ton of people spending

money again on food and services and

travel and retail and hospitality

and all of a sudden we get a short-term

inflation boom until that settles off

and we get prices

falling again or stabilizing again which

means inflation's going away

and maybe bitcoin follows that same up

and that same down scenario number one

is basically taking the federal

reserve's inflation expectations

and merging them with what people's

expectations or fears might be

for inflation and how those might

manifest

in the price of bitcoin notice when

congress talks about spending money

or we get closer to passing a stimulus

package bitcoin goes

up but more interesting to me is

scenario number two because it's one we

haven't talked about that much before

and i always like looking at alternate

scenarios because

no matter what we think or believe or

think evidence points to

there's always the possibility that

we're missing something

after all people measure inflation in

dozens of different ways with

asset price inflation real estate stock

market we have food price inflation

commodity inflation

regular consumer purchases inflation

inflation rears itself in crazy ways

but there's a metric that came out this

morning that came as

a surprise and this surprise becomes

very important

for expectation number two by the way

quick note before i talk about scenario

number two i just want to mention that

i just wired 250 000 to block fi

to start my investment into bitcoin at

block fi

yes my first nine bitcoin are at robin

hood and robin hood did announce that

one day

i'll be able to transfer that bitcoin to

a crypto

wallet which i look forward to but for

now i will be buying my new bitcoin with

block fi

and if you want to get a free 250 or up

to 250

when you sign up for an account with

blackfy make sure to go to metkevin.com

b f that's like blockfi medkevin.com

b f check that out and when you sign up

and deposit money

you will get up to 250 dollars totally

for free

and you could get that reward in your

cryptocurrency of choice

take a look at this cnbc headline

article

u.s producer prices post

biggest gains since 2009 the u.s

producer prices

increased by the most since 2009

in january as the cost of goods and

services

surged suggesting inflation

at the factory gate was starting to

creep

up the producer price index or ppi

for final demand jumped 1.3 percent last

month the biggest gain since december

2019 or sorry 9 2009 when the government

revamped the series the labor department

said on wednesday

folks here's the chart of the producer

price index and if we zoom out we could

see the producer price index going all

the way really back to the 1920s

but what's most relevant to us obviously

is the more

near-term or recent term and that brings

us all the way back

to well 2009 and the recession here and

we noticed this

massive spike in the producer price

index going

into the 2008 recession in fact things

really hit the fan

in september of 2008 many would argue

the midst of the global financial crisis

and potentially even the start

and we'll notice that the producer price

index increased going

right into it only to come crashing down

starting essentially in the september

2008

reading now what's interesting and we're

not here to talk about the next market

crash by any means

but let's zoom in specifically to the

recent producer price index

here and see how this might relate to

bitcoin so here's the thing

in january of 2020 the producer price

index was 199.3

and the ppi plummeted in february

march april and didn't start recovering

again until

may this means when we do a

year-over-year comparison

and we get february's data which we'll

get in march

we're going to see a comparison from

here to a line that keeps going

up which means inflation data and the

ppi are about to come in

real hot especially on a year-over-year

metric

they're going to come in very very high

i mean look at this trajectory here

we went from 200.6 to 204

let's say we go to 208 in february of

2021

and we compare 208 to 196.7

well we take 208 divided by 196.7

and we'll have an inflation reading of

5.7

year-over-year on the ppi if we go to

let's say we go to 210 in the next month

in march

but then we compare to 193 or better yet

we go to 210 in april let's say and we

compare to april's data

inflation will look like it is somewhere

around

13 on a year-over-year metric

what's fascinating here because we know

we're comparing year over year and this

is where the scenario gets

really interesting what's fascinating

about the psychology that's going to

happen when we see these scary data is

that we might

actually begin to anchor our

expectations for those three months

and then onward that inflation is here

and federal reserve chairman jerome

powell says that inflation works in

really interesting ways

inflation occurs when people expect

inflation so if we see three months of

year over year oh my god

what looks like really high inflation

and all of a sudden people's inflation

expectations

skyrocket and we start seeing oh my gosh

people think forget about two percent

inflation we might see three or four

percent inflation

and that might be here to stay that

motivates

producers and consumers or maybe not

consumers but that motivates producers

and suppliers

to raise their prices in anticipation of

inflation

and then you self-inflict inflation and

if inflation then does not

fall off once we get to let's say summer

2020 data

compared to summer 2021 data because all

of a sudden we're self-fulfilling

inflation federal reserve chairman

jerome powell says that is how inflation

can work

it's very weird how it works but it can

work that way if that happens

and a substantial chunk of people

believe

that oh my gosh bitcoin is the savior

when it's time to invest in an

inflationary time which we haven't seen

in a while

we haven't really seen it since 2017

2018

when we really started seeing rates

trick up which also happens to align

with the last

insane run of a bitcoin then it's

entirely possible that we could see

people actually invest

more money into bitcoin during not only

these three months but thereafter

people start taking money out of stocks

and real estate

and taking anything they can get their

hands on and plowing it into

bitcoin because some people perceive it

to be an inflation hedge again whether

or not

it is does not matter it's the

perception that matters

and remember what happened last time we

started seeing inflation we started

seeing rates go up to combat inflation

folks it's right here take a look at

this this run

november of 2017 right here this run

was right as the fed was really starting

to talk about

raising rates in 2018 and that's what

they did now obviously that run-up

wasn't sustainable and it consolidated

but what's interesting is if you zoom

into around november of 2018

that's when the stock market started

falling but it's also

when the federal reserve said we're

going to pause on raising rates for the

time being

inflation estimates are coming in lower

right here november the ppi comes in

lower than expected and what happened to

bitcoin prices when it came in lower

than expected

it's this drop right here from that

november reading

you get a decline going into december

now look i'm not trying to say that

bitcoin's price is solely the result

of whatever this random measure is of

the producer price index

i'm not suggesting that if cpi does

something crazy

we are going to guaranteed see bitcoin

go up but i believe that in scenario

number two if the federal reserve is

wrong

and they're proven wrong because

inflation sticks around

it could be because people expect

inflation to come

inflation comes and when inflation comes

people flee to bitcoin as a reserve

asset

and when inflation comes and if

certainly when that comes

if the federal reserve makes any kind of

u-turn on their policy decision and says

folks we gotta raise rates to dampen

inflation guess what's going to happen

we're going to see a stock sell-off

we're going to see a real estate

sell-off

bitcoin will already be much more

mainstream when this happens in the next

few months it's obviously already much

more mainstream

now than it used to be and in my opinion

it's entirely possible

that bitcoin could begin its run to 1

million dollars

in 2021. now i don't

believe that bitcoin is going to go to 1

million dollars in

2021 but i think the run

of bitcoin going in that direction could

be

highly correlated to what inflation does

i don't really know which scenario is

going to happen

if i was a betting person i would

probably put

my bets on the belief that there's an

80 70 to 80 percent chance we don't see

this

self-inflicted sustained inflation and i

could be wrong

inflation after all we know is not

something that generally follows modern

economies that are expanding

we have a modern economy that's

expanding it's expanding at a slower

rate than it used to

but it's expanding and it's expanding

through technological innovation

and technology tends to create deflation

not

inflation prices come down not up sure

we can keep running the money printer

but at some point congress's appetite

for running the money printer

will stop and that's where i believe

it's

probable that we're going to see

temporary inflation

that'll soften that could lead to very

volatile cryptocurrency movements

over these periods of going through

inflation to

not i think that scenario is more likely

that's

more likely where i'm going to place my

bets now i do believe that bitcoin could

triple

within these periods it wouldn't shock

me to see bitcoin 150

000 by april may or june wouldn't shock

me at all especially when we start

getting some of these crazy

year-over-year inflationary

figures but we also can't predict the

future and so the other scenario is also

a real possibility that

surprisingly inflation sticks around and

people

do raise their prices because the

expectations of inflation are here

and all of a sudden now we fulfill the

expectation we get

money velocity that comes back up

because people are spending more

right now we've got 25 percent more

money in circulation

but people are spending way less so it's

hard to have inflation because there's

not so much demand but if everybody goes

back to spending like crazy

kind of like we used to do well yeah

inflation could be here

and so that brings up the possibility

that sure there's in my opinion a real

20 to 30

chance that bitcoin could literally go

on a rocket ship to the moon

and stay on a rocket ship to the moon if

inflation stays here

now i do have to give credit to some

folks who

say hey kevin look bitcoin's price has

nothing to do with inflation

and there are some people who say that

but

what i would challenge is how many folks

invest in bitcoin

as an opportunity to escape the fiat

and to avoid or potentially hedge

against inflation

and the more people invest in that the

more buying power we have

to actually drive bitcoin's prices

when inflation shows up anyway let me

know which scenario you think is more

likely is scenario one more likely where

yeah we see bitcoin go up it's not going

to be anything extreme

but bitcoin could come down again after

inflation expectations and actual

inflation subsides

or are we going into a hyper-inflation

environment are we going to see a

sustained

high inflation is the fed going to be

wrong and is bitcoin going to basically

follow the market uh or follow inflation

up and

become a primary hedge against inflation

and maybe

actually really be that hedge

that we're looking for i don't know but

i want to know what you think let me

know in the comments down below

make sure to get your free up to 250

dollars with block five via the link

down below or go to medkevin.com bef

like blockfi and folks we'll see in the

next video