this month could be hell.

hey everyone me kevin here in this video

we're going to talk about important

calendar dates coming up in projections

for those important calendar dates

you're not gonna want to miss writing

these down because they're gonna be big

catalysts potentially number two very

ugly because we've got a disastrous

number that just came out and number

three a tiny little bit of technical

analysis on some good old crypto but

first comment down below if you would

like me to do a review of any particular

ticker symbol that you have questions

about

and i recommend before you comment it or

maybe after you comment it look to see

if somebody else has voted that ticker

symbol up because i'm going to look at

the top ticker symbols in about a couple

hours and then i'll probably do at least

a commentary video on it or maybe some

kind of deeper review on it we'll see

let's have fun with it let's see if you

all want to get back into some of the

fundamental analysis which right now we

pretty much exclusively do in our course

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they're like i don't believe that the

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to the wayback machine you know that

website where you can kind of go back

into different time zones or like past

dates and they're like oh my gosh he

ain't lying the prices really go up

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folks let's get into the video so first

july 5th which is tomorrow we get

factory orders we're expecting a half

percent month-over-month increase that's

up from 0.3 percent in the prior month

if we we'd like to see factory orders

coming strong this is a good sign for

global gdp and especially with the

potential of a rebound in china which is

leading a lot of folks to flock to

chinese etfs and speculate on the

chinese consumer rebounding after

lockdowns which in my opinion has a risk

of being a temporary sort of reopening

play but then a longer term drag is the

chinese consumer is still faced with

developers all around their country

going bankrupt thanks to the real estate

crisis in china i don't know how much

i'm excited to bet on the chinese

consumer but i do think there are some

short-term catalysts to see some big

movements here especially since media

all across the world is reporting that

well hey china might actually help

global gdp stay propped up and maybe the

globe can stay out of a recession just

because of china so factory orders july

5th 7 a.m more interestingly and then

we'll get to the scary ones we get some

things on july 6 like the purchaser man

purchasing managers indices there are

two well in this case we're getting two

reported services and composite services

is expected to come in at 51.6 any

number above 50 means growth composite

expected to come in at 51.2 which is the

same as the prior uh prior reads those

come in at 6 45 am and we get some good

ones okay the first thing we're going to

get is at 7 a.m we're going to get the

new jolts numbers this is the job

openings set of data and we're expecting

job openings to come in at 11 million

job openings that's still

still probably somewhere around 1.8

times the job openings per unemployed

people that we have so even though we're

down from 1.9 job openings per

unemployed person we're really not

seeing a big drop off here in job

openings however we've recently started

seeing layoffs and so there are wonders

that hey if this number misses bad and

let's say it comes in at oh my gosh a

bunch of job openings were cancelled and

it comes in at let's say 10 million or

something ridiculously low

could that be a sign that affirms a

recession is indeed coming which

remember what is terrible in a recession

is a firm in fact the first day i bought

a firm i said this is a great play for

an expanding economy terrible play for a

recession

who would have thought at that point

which was like last october that

we would we'd be talking about or

potentially in the midst of a recession

just the short six to nine months later

oh well anyway the federal uh that jolts

uh number comes in at seven am followed

by at 11 a.m the federal reserve's

minutes hmm oh we love getting the

minutes from the fed because this is

where we can get an idea as to how

aggressive is the fed gonna get here

what are we gonna be looking for we're

gonna be looking to see are we getting

any kind of estimates in terms of what's

their terminal rate are we looking at

3.25 probably not anymore we're probably

looking at somewhere between 3.75 and

four and a quarter in terms of the fed's

terminal rate for the fed's funds rate

in case you don't know what that means

it means we have a lot of pain ahead of

us and the higher number that is the

worse so we're going to be looking for

hints are we going to be getting another

75 in july maybe maybe not are we going

to be getting 50 or 25s towards the end

of the year right

and these are the questions

that that will try to glean from the

federal reserve's minutes again mark

your calendar that is wednesday at 11

a.m all of these times pacific standard

time now at the moment

markets are pricing in a 93.3

chance of the federal reserve giving us

a 75 basis point rate hike in july so

maybe the minutes will just be another

backward-looking tool however maybe

we're not looking for only rate hints

maybe we're also going to be looking for

hints on

hey do you see any actual signs of

inflation potentially peaking based on

the estimates that we're seeing from the

from what's happening in markets sure we

see some sectors in terms of commodity

prices decreasing but folks you don't

even want to know what the bloomberg

consensus is for inflation coming up and

when i say bloomberg consensus i don't

mean like one company's consensus i mean

all the consensus together averaged into

a consensus okay

when i tell you what that cpi projection

is you're probably gonna vomit stay

tuned it's coming up in about two

minutes okay so uh wednesday july 6th

that will be a busy day again we'll get

uh pmi uh the bigger ones are gonna be

jolts and fed minutes

jolts for recession fears fed for dude

like any any sign of hope with you all

like anything

anything july 8th we'll get uh

july 8th is friday we got some big

catalysts coming up on this one just a

three business days prior to the cpi

release three business days prior to the

cpi release what are we gonna get we're

gonna get the federal or the

unemployment rate bureau of labor

statistics unemployment we rate that is

expected to come in at 3.6 which is the

same as the last month's unemployment

rate we are expecting to get a five

percent year-over-year and

month-over-month 3.3 gain in average

hourly earnings if we miss on average

hourly earnings and average hourly

earnings come in at like a 0.4 0.5 or

worse like a 0.6 or 0.7 that's great for

workers absolutely terrible for markets

we are expecting the labor force

participation rate to take up one-tenth

of one percent but that's not what

people are going to be looking at people

are going to be looking at that 5 30 a.m

release friday morning of 0.3 percent

for the month over month hourly earnings

friday morning something also quite

entertaining happens

i go on vacation now we'll be back and

forth so we won't be won't be you know

straight

uh it's it's probably the longest

vacation yet and uh in case you're new

around here let's get you into the tune

here so take a look at this beginning of

october i decide i'm to dye my hair

green what does that do it leads to this

beautiful rally in the stock market that

lasts until mid-november

which is where we peak out right around

november 23rd and 24th i had so much

green around me stock screen net worth

is at the highest level it's ever been

green hair everything's green i'm like

crap i need a change and right before i

went on vacation to mexico what did i do

i decided to dye my hair red november

25th i dye my hair red and folks what

immediately follows as i dye my hair red

well we start getting some volatility we

start getting some pain i go on vacation

the market drops in december and we're

like oh man like december's getting uh

it to be a little rocky we're not

hitting all them all-time highs again

right then i go on a vacation right

before my birthday in january what

happens

weep there's my birthday my birthday's

right there where the mouse is on

january 28th yeah sorry about that

so uh we thought okay well hey like no

worries right like it can't get much

worse right sure kevin can go to back to

back vacations by going to florida and

then going to florence italy and that

could lead to weep

yeah so uh i'm sorry in advance i'm i'm

giving you notice as much as possible

here but uh yeah i i'm gonna be uh i'm

gonna be gone uh and out of town for for

a little bit uh actually like the rest

of the month starting on the eighth and

again you know some back and forth and

stuff but yeah

sorry about that in advance just i just

wanted to let you know yeah maybe i need

to tie my hair green again before i go

oh but anyway uh then at least

at least we have uh the cpi numbers that

we can look forward to and boy oh boy

look forward to we can so uh inflation

we thought peaked at eight point like

four eight point five percent the last

three we got eight point six percent

were like

oh god it hasn't

peaked oh

folks don't worry the bloomberg

consensus if last month was 8.6

on screen i don't even want to say it

it's on screen it was 8.6 and then that

was last month when we thought oh my

gosh this is hell like this is bad the

consensus now is that it's going to come

in at 8.8 percent year over year and not

only that but the month over month is

gonna go from one percent to

one point one percent yeah

month over month which would be an

annualized inflation rate of 13.2

we're doing just fine folks everything

is just

fine don't worry july's gonna be a great

month especially since everyone's

betting on a fed u-turn

oh but don't worry at least we have good

news and that the atlanta fed estimate

is doing pretty decently see take a look

at this the atlanta fed estimate says

don't worry

analysts across the board think we're

good with gdp we'll have gdp somewhere

around three percent and we're fine

that's the blue line here it was

analysts in general thinking

everything's going to be fine well the

atlanta fed real gdp indicator has um

has been a little more bearish here at

one point dropping to nearly zero

percent but don't worry folks the

atlanta fed gdp now estimate is now

oh dear it is uh more than negative two

percent yeah it's it's under negative

two for gdp which if that's the case for

q2 and we just got a downward revision

on q1 gdp then we probably already are

in a recession and not only are we

probably already in a recession but this

recession's probably going to last a

little longer than folks were hoping but

don't worry folks at least at least we

could do some technical analysis on

bitcoin because see this is what we call

a double top and usually what we do we

look at a double top is we look at how

low was it on the left and how long was

it on the right to get to some kind of

equilibrium and uh oh oh oh god oh god

that's that's in like the btc 13 000

never mind folks get yourself a free

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in a recession folks now is the time to

be doing fundamental analysis and even

if you watch the live streams and you're

like i'ma do the opposite at least

you'll pick up some things along the way

and you'll learn folks thank you so much

for watching

happy 4th of july and hello kitty