*Huge* Trade Deal SIGNED by Trump | Vietnam IMPACT

Donald Trump just struck an art of the

deal deal with Vietnam on trade. Now the

question is, is this deal actually going

to lead to a stronger US economy and

what's going to happen to jobs or

inflation? But we're going to talk about

that in this video. But first, some of

the concepts or frameworks of the deal.

So this is actually more than a China

framework. It actually seems to have a

functional deal. Vietnam to pay 20%

tariff on any goods it sends to the

United States. Last year, Vietnam sent

about $137 billion to the United States,

and that level has been straight up

skyrocketing. In fact, Vietnam has the

third largest trade surplus of any

country with us. In other words, we have

a giant trade deficit with them. That's

because we only import about $13

billion. Sorry, we only export about $1

13 billion to Vietnam. So 13 billion

goes from us to Vietnam. We take about

$137 billion. So it's about a 10x

difference for every $10 that we import

from Vietnam. Vietnam imports about $1.

Now Vietnam's like, "Ah, we promised to

import more, including agricultural

stuff. Who cares? Why are we seeing

surges from Vietnam imports? Well, part

of it is frankly because a lot of our

companies manufacture over there.

Restoration Hardware, Lululemon, Nike,

Gap, IKEA, Lego, Intel, Ford, Toyota,

Apple, Samsung, Adidas, that's the

German way to say, uh H&M, Under Armour.

These are a lot of companies that

manufacture and are relying on on

Vietnam at least some part in their

manufacturing process. Now, initially

when we saw this deal announced that

there was a deal with details to follow,

stocks like Nike and Restoration

Hardware popped on the news, but Donald

Trump said details to follow. Then the

details came out and that's when things

got a little funny. Now, I'm going to

explain why things got a little funny

and what this means for jobs and margins

and all that in just a moment. But what

I do want to mention is this morning we

were talking about not only in the

course live streams but also very early

this morning we were talking about hood

when we saw our volume start rising here

on hood we saw this as a potential

breakout confirming our 90 in the

pre-market and the next natural spot is

100. So we're very very bullish on hood

right around here. Now, if you want

analysis like this every morning, even

before the market opens, make sure

you're part of the Meet Kevin Alpha

report, which comes out every morning

before the market opens and we put it

together to g together and analyze

potential trades or historical trends or

otherwise. This is a little bit more of

a 50/50 trade right now that we're at

about 100. But anyway, if you want

analysis like what we did on Hood over

here, which played out perfectly,

especially with this increasing volume,

very impressive. I mean more volume over

here than we had during the first 10-15

minutes which really helped drove this

of course risk factor now that volume is

declining. Make sure you join that meet

Kevin alpha report. You get all all the

courses all the course live streams the

alpha report every day the market is

open the new lectures coming out

especially the ones on Trumpomics. So

stay tuned for that because that'll be

all about the big beautiful bill. Stay

tuned. So that said, uh we now have to

understand what does this mean for

margins? Because here's the thing.

Liberation day, we went to 46% tariff on

Vietnamese products. Then we went to a

10% tariff. So which is still higher

than what it was before. We were closer

to a trade weighted average of maybe 3%

tariffs on Vietnam. That went to 10%

after Liberation Day's pause. problem is

now it's slightly more than 20% because

we're going to have a 40% tariff on

trans shipping which is Chinese products

going through Vietnam to the United

States. Probably one of the reasons we

saw uh you know Vietnamese trade explode

and that trade deficit with Vietnam

explode is because of trans shipping and

just more manufacturing going to Vietnam

over China because of the 2018 trade war

making Vietnam a more desirable place to

manufacture. That said, you have to

remember how this actually functionally

works for companies. Okay? So,

understand this for a moment. When Nike

sells you a $150 shoe,

about I'm going to say

COGS probably 25%. Let's go with 25% on

COGS. 37.5

is probably the cost that uh applies to

Vietnam.

So tariff at 20% is really on 3750

not not 150. Very important to remember

that right now

that

works out to about a $7.50 tariff

uh on the total product. That's not a

big deal. That works out to 750 divided

by 150 which is

7.5 divide by 1.5 5%.

Oh, I look up and it already did my math

for me. Apple AI. That's funny. I was

not expecting that. Anyway, 5%. Uh, so

could

could Nike shoes go up in price 5%.

probably not. Now, why would they not go

up? Because revenues are collapsing

uh about 12 to 26%

at Nike. Uh online uh closer to mid20s

collapse. Converse down mid20s

total revenues down well over 10%. What

does this signal? They don't have

pricing power. They have small pee pee.

Okay, nobody wants small pee pee. And so

when you have small pee pee and you

you're limited on your pricing power,

the last thing you do is raise prices.

Instead, you try to innovate your shoe

with designs or whatever or uh increase

advertising, right? And this is exactly

what Nike is doing. They're trying to

innovate and increase advertising

because they can't raise prices. The

problem is

if that doesn't work, where does the

pain show up? Not in CPI, which is

consumer price uh index inflation in uh

it. Yes, it shows up in PPI, which is

producer price uh you know index

inflation. Uh, but the Fed doesn't

really care about PPI. They care about

consumer prices.

If consumer prices don't go up, where

does the 5% pain go?

Jobs, just like the ADP problem that we

had this morning. Again, this is very

slow though. very slow, very lagging,

uh, and very damaging when it shows up.

Until it shows up, the party can keep

going on. So, in the short term, uh, a

short term, having a trade deal is

great. It also sets the stage for other

deals. Unfortunately,

uh, so I'll just say sadly, it sets the

bar high, right? It basically says we

want bigly tariffs. Like Donald Trump

wants revenue. He want he's addicted to

this tariff revenue. That's bad for jobs

long term. So good for markets

short to medium-term,

you know, which would be like 3 six

months, right? 36 mo uh longer term uh

could reduce growth

and jobs.

That's my take on this Vietnamese trade

deal. Again, nice to have, but also

somewhat problematic. Hey, look at that.

What a surprise. I said higher risk to

keep playing this at 100, especially

with volume falling. And look at it

happen. And it's happening live. It's

not like we're doing some replay here.

This is the same stuff that I do in the

alpha report in the morning. In fact, I

said the trend on circle is down. We

know this. And if as soon as we lose

183, which is the 18287 line here, we're

going to keep going down. The momentum,

just understand, and we've been

following this momentum and talking

about this in our alpha report all year

long. The momentum went coreweave and

then the momentum slowed on coreweave.

Where did it go? Circle. Circle goes,

you know, from $30 to $300. It was a

crazy 10x. Okay, we were talking about

the entire way. Then the momentum is now

dying on circle. Where is it going?

Well, it's actually going to fintech.

Who's winning? Robin Hood, SoFi, makes

sense. What the next cycle is, we don't

know. But for right now, it seems to uh

uh it's likely to stick to fintech until

like the next big, you know, IPO or

whatever comes around. This is just

simple momentum trading. Anyway, that

gives us an update on B. Why not

advertise these things that you told us

here? I feel like nobody else knows

about this. We'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes.

Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.