We just hit a WALL

All right, wood gifts. Donald Trump

basically tanked the market right into

clothes because he started yapping about

cooking oil.

Same day that tariffs on upholster

furniture and kitchen cabinets and

vanities start going into effect,

pissing off a lot of real estate folks.

Boy, we got to talk about the real

estate crash. We'll talk about that

towards the end of this video. But we

need to understand what are people

doing. And let me give you a spoiler

alert. People don't give a flying crap.

Here's literally Bank of America's fund

manager survey saying people are

bipolar. And that's literally spelled B

U Y as in people don't care, they're

just buying. So, we're going to talk

about people not caring, cockroaches,

and real estate. Yes, that's literally

the itinerary for this video. Okay, so

first, people not caring. Look, Donald

Trump is like, "China is taking

advantage of us. They haven't bought a

single one of our soybeans, and I want

my beans to be bought." That's because

like 31% of the crops we make in America

are soybeans and even if farmers go

between wheat and soybeans one of the

years they're getting screwed over here.

So a lot of farmers are suffering right

now. Donald Trump promised them a

bailout sort of like he had to do in

2018 when basically China started buying

soybeans from Brazil. Oh my gosh. It's

almost like there's a pattern here like

history repeats itself. God save us if

this is anything like uh the smoke har.

Anyway, uh, understand this isn't a

surprise. Donald Trump said he would

bail out the farmers like he did in

2018, except now he's blaming Democrats

for not being able to bail them out

because he engineered this government

shutdown so he could cancel now over $28

billion of Democratic funded projects,

including massive solar farms in Nevada,

which is crazy because at the same time

as we're blowing up data center energy

demands, increasing the cost of living

for everyday Americans, we are now

apparently and and we're trying to build

out as quickly as possible more energy

needs. Apparently, we're like

subsidizing the oil and natural gas and

energy lobby here or something because

green energy is just going to get

screwed. So, while we need many more

gigawatts, we just destroyed 7 plus

gigawatts in just one facility in ne

Nevada. Enough to power 2 million homes.

Poof. Oh, sorry. We canled that project

because Democrats.

Uh, mind you, Donald Trump's also firing

a bunch of people, mistakenly firing

over 800 people from the CDC last week

and then trying to rehire

There's a lot to talk about here, but

none of this seems to have people

nervous whatsoever. In fact, it's like

frankly the opposite some of these

numbers in terms of nervousness, which I

wonder if that alone should make people

nervous. But nobody cares that Donald

Trump is like, "Well, we're going to get

the Chinese back. We're going to tariff

their cooking oil because after all of

what the Chinese send abroad with

cooking oil, we buy over 41% of it and

we're tired of it. We're just not going

to have it. You know what? Americans are

going to start making cooking oil great

again. Like I don't even have the

patience right now to do a good accent.

Not that I could if I tried, but it's

just exhausting cuz it's like what?

Anyway, all markets hear about this with

the exception of obviously at the close

because institutions at least or ALOS

pretend to be risk averse. Uh, you know,

this is exactly what we saw with uh the

cues over the last couple days where

when you get Donald Trump saying

something wonky, what do you end up

getting? Oh wow, what a surprise. You

get that sell down towards the market on

close. Look at that volume coming in at

the close. Pretty freaking wild. We'll

have a lot to talk about tomorrow in the

Meet Kevin alpha report. As usual, you

already know about that. I'm not going

to pitch it here. It's at me Kevin.com.

You know the coupon code shumer siesta.

What matters more is that right now

global recession concerns are at the

lowest levels that we have seen in three

and a half years. Bond allocations are

at the lowest level since October of 22,

even though the 2-year just dropped

below 3.5. briefly the 10-year fell

below 4% today, which that could be with

Powell's dovish U-turn, we could start

seeing yields tank. It would actually be

exactly what the Fed should be doing. By

the way, like I think the Federal

Reserve should be doing whatever they

can to get rates lower because I

actually agree with them that inflation

from the tariffs will be present but

will be mostly transitory and then rates

are going to plummet because they have

to support the labor market. Even if

only half of the labor market is

suffering, it's still half of the

country that they're going to have to

support with their dual mandate in

focus. Anyway, uh fund manager survey

investor sentiment is the most bullish

since February, basically before

liberation and stock allocation is now

at 8month highs while at the same time

we're at dangerously low levels of cash

and the only thing people are worried

about is private credit, AI bubbles, and

cockroaches. Yeah, the cockroach's

comment comes from Jamie Diamond saying

there's a possibility of more credit

stress ahead. Saying that when you see

one cro cockroach, there are probably

more referring to the bankruptcies

ofricolor and first brand groups. Okay,

we got to talk about that a little bit

more in addition to talking about gold

and the future valuation of gold, the

risks in the market. Uh but towards the

end of this video, we've got a lot to

mention about real estate. Just a quick

spoiler alert, Carrier was really

freaking bullish in the second quarter.

They're like, "Oh, wow. We're kicking

butt. Our, you know, sales are up 3%

year-over-year. What tariffs? Yo, we're

kicking butt." I guess they've never

heard of something called a pull forward

because now they're like, "Oh crap,

something hit the wall in September and

October, and that's creating some

concerns about the housing market." So,

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member FDIC. And yes, there are some

concerns when it comes to housing. Here

is that update from Carrier. Carrier

said this week that volumes in the

residential business would be 40% below

last year's level. A much weaker rate of

demand than the company forecast only

six weeks ago. So in other words, 6

weeks ago they're like, "Everything's

fine. Everything's great." They're

basically like contributing to this GDP

estimate of like, "Oh, everything's

wonderful." And now all of a sudden

they're like, "Oh my gosh, we're going

to have to 8K this," which is like an

SEC update because our numbers are going

to be way worse than we thought. So all

of a sudden they hit a wall. Oh my gosh,

what a surprise. You mean you mean

tariffs could eventually have an impact?

No. But anyway, uh we saw a similar 33%

plunge in US air conditioner shipments

in July, 18% drop in deliveries of heat

pumps, suggesting the trend isn't just

limited to carrier, although carriers

trying to offset that with their

installations into data centers. New

single single family home sales are

expected to decline by low to mid single

digits this year. Mind you, this whole

like real estate issue, which if we go

to the Bank of America fund manager

manager survey is very reminiscent of

what we saw in the early8s, we didn't

actually see a housing price crash. What

we saw was a volume collapse. Housing

volumes fell. And so, if you look at

institutional allocation amongst fund

managers to real estate, it's low. I

even wrote LOL on it. Net asset managers

who say they're overweight real estate

it's at like here what is this uh fund

FMS real estate allocation is net 12%

underweight net 12% underweight current

allocation is seven standard deviations

below long-term average. So we're below

long-term average though we're still not

quite negative like we were after the

bubble pop in 2008. Though this is

really a different bubble. Not to say

that this is different. It's it's a

bubble. Let's be clear. we are in a

euphoric mania. But it's sort of like

the crash that caused, you know, the

double dip recession in the early 80s

was an inflation shock of the mid70s,

which somewhat you could argue we've had

an inflation shock now. The crash of the

dotcom era was obviously excessive

valuations in AI. Ah, today, you know,

people like, oh, we could justify, you

know, no worries. Of course, fund

managers are still worried about a

private credit event in an AI bubble.

Jamie Diamond, by the way, was the

cockroach guy. He's like, not trying to

call him a cockroach, though I'd love to

cuz I hate the bank. Uh, I used to like

them a lot, but I'm like, man, you guys

just you guys don't like you're so

behind on your technology, dude. They're

like I tried. It's kind of like you're

you're dating and then you're like, man,

they treat me like crap. Uh, and then

all of a sudden you date somebody else

and you're like, oh my gosh, there are

people like this out there. Banking.

But anyway, Jamie Diamond, he's like,

yeah, you know, um, the credit event

that we saw withricolor, you know, if

there's one cockroach, there more. I

mean, we already touched on this, but

why does that matter? It matters because

the focus of where concerns on risk and

valuations are today or really AI, the

cockroaches of private credit, which

encompasses, mind you, debt, not only of

investors, but also of buy now pay

later. Buy now pay later is a huge

bubble. The New York Times magazine just

had a great piece on buy now pay later

about how people are just basically

leasing a lifestyle and eventually

you're going to run out of the ability

to keep leasing that lifestyle. But

volumes are collapsing in real estate

housing activity, not prices. And one of

the ways I like looking at this and sort

of monitoring this is seeing what's

going on on the Redfin data center. If

we jump to the Redfin data center, yes,

broadly, when you get these news

headlines, we're like, "Oh my gosh,

what's happening with housing?" Uh,

there are problems with these issues in

terms of volumes. But you look at actual

median sales prices. Of course, every

year you have an up and down. You have

the like May bump. Every single year you

have that May June bump. Duh. It's

buying season. But 2025 is still well

above 24 by 4% well above 23 by uh you

know another 2% actually that's probably

even more as I mean you could look at

the chart yourself. You get it. Uh and

then obviously you could get sort of

like macro in this if you want. You

know, you could go into like San Diego

where 2025 is somewhat converged but

slightly above what you've got in 2024.

Or you could go into New York City and

you go into uh New York, New York, you

could see New York also somewhat

converging with 2024 but still above,

right? So, broadly, nothing really to

see here in the real estate market.

Okay. So, what about even Miami? It's

fine. Again, volumes problematic. All

the other stuff, it's not that bad. I

think that's why Goldman is like, "Hey,

like we're putting the housing market on

a four." So they have this little scale

where they put where the housing market

is and they say that over 50 years we've

determined that a reading of five is in

line with historic norms and zero

represents the weakest market outside of

the financial crisis. Uh and that was in

1982 and it was like even weaker than it

is today even though that was just a

volume correction and real estate prices

were mostly flat. That's how bad it got

in ' 82 was flat. Not as like the

financial crisis where these numbers

were probably negative. But anyway, they

see the market right now as broadly in

line with longerterm averages for real

estate, which is interesting. So then

where are people throwing their money?

Well, if you look at the fund manager

survey, people are throwing their money

first of all on the belief that we're

going to get a Chris Waller. If you

actually look at Cali though, the

betting markets say that Hasset has a

greater chance. I think that's because

fund managers and economists want

Waller. Nick T posted that. Uh and then

Hasset is wanted by Trump because

Hasset's Let's be clear, he's just he's

just a shill. We don't even have to go

deeper into that. We talked about that

in the Fed meeting uh video. But anyway,

scroll up here for a moment. Let's look

at some of these other charts.

Expectations for higher bond yields have

risen to the highest level since June of

22. This to me is crazy because Powell

is literally talking about turning the

vacuum cleaner off and no longer selling

bonds, which would be huge for the bond

market. I actually think we might have a

breakout on bonds the moment we get this

double set of jobs data September,

October. You could potentially see TLT

rocket over 100 or over 110 or whatever

because people are going to go, "Oh

crap." We'll see. Or we'll confirm a

soft landing, right? That's that's we

don't know. Anyway, uh individual

productivity. So, uh, 52% of fund

managers say AI productivity is already

happening. I think it's individual

productivity that's happening, not sort

of corporate revenue. Talked about that

in the last video as well. Uh, and then

over here you can see recession

expectations are the lowest since 2022,

which either puts us in 2007 and totally

blind for what's about to happen or like

2014 or 22 and we're really just about

to take off with valuations in the

market. The only thing that really makes

me nervous out of all of this is right

here. Fund manager average cash levels

declined from 3.9 to 3.8%. The sell

signal for Bank of America was triggered

in July and the hard sell comes at 3.7.

So we are on the like we're knocking on

the door of a hard sell from Bank of

America. Now, this also comes at the

same time as the International Monetary

Fund is like, hey, um, you know, there's

some crazy stuff going on right now. And

if we look at just broadly, we might

actually end up having some problems

here. Look at this. Global markets are

too comfortable with risks, including

trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and

yawning government deficits, which

combined with already overpriced assets

increase the chance of a disorderly

market correction. This comes at the

same time as people are now writing

articles like this is the dumbest stock

market in history and they're basically

bagging on passive market investors

because the only thing people are doing

to do their fundamental research is

they're uh well basically looking at the

chart and if it goes up they buy and

since a lot of passive funds are going

up they are getting bought hookline and

sinker. Now is this problematic and

where is my head on all of this? Well,

I'm going to tell you, I've been

mid-range on the bull bear scale. I

really, really, really want this job

data, but I'm grateful to see the Fed is

already preempting some of it. I'm going

to play videos of the kids while while I

talk about this cuz it's me talking.

You're going to get to see Max. You're

going to see some babies here. Uh, and

I'm really excited about that. But

anyway, so look, here's the thing.

I want us to confirm a soft landing

because I believe that that is going to

be best for all Americans. All Americans

will be able to reinvest uh into more

stocks, into real estate, into House

Hack AI. I want House hack AI to go to

the moon. If we have a recession, that

might get delayed a little bit. Like

we'll be fine because we're pretty much

a cash operating company and we'll just

buy the dip on a lot of houses. But like

I, you know, if I had a bias, I want

this soft landing this thing. And I'm

really grateful that Jerome Powell is

waking up to the risks. This pivot today

was critical. Remember, I don't know if

you remember, but the last Fed meeting

we had, I'm like, "Bro, please go

doubish." I don't I didn't think he

would. We talked about like, "If he ends

up going dovish, we're going to be under

4% on the 10-year yield. But if he goes

neutral, we're going 415." And it's

literally exactly what happened. The

statement was doubbish. We go under 4%.

tested, fact checked what Kevin

predicted. Then boom, we go to 415 after

because he ends up going neutral. It's

what we predicted in the meet Kevin

Alpha report. Remember, you get those uh

every time we have events like this. You

get lifetime access to it. So, you buy

it once and you just keep getting it,

which is great. But, uh understand that

this U-turn, the markets aren't going to

appreciate, but it's very bullish. This

is what the Fed should do to support a

weakening labor market. And I couldn't

be more grateful to hear that the Fed is

finally waking up to realizing, listen,

there if we take out tariffs, there's

basically no inflation. And so, we're

going to focus on the labor market. This

is a very bullish U-turn. So, while it's

also concerning because it's like, are

we already too late? which would be the

bearish side. It is bullish from the Fed

because it means they're acting and then

the question is just will their actions

be enough. That's always the question,

you know, is it actually going to be

enough or are they going to have to run

that money printer really hot just like

they did or have every single time in

the past to actually mark a real bottom?

And in which case, what are we going to

go through before that happens? I mean,

you openly have Morgan Stanley saying,

"Uh, yeah, right now a correction would

actually be healthy." Uh, and mind you,

a lot of people are really really

pumping gold. In fact, I forgot to

mention that, but uh, gold valuations

obviously, you know, off the charts

right now. Net percentage of uh fund

managers saying gold is overvalued now

at 41% up from 24% and is now considered

the most crowded trade followed by the

MAG 7 and short dollar trade and then

long crypto. Uh so gold as far as fund

managers only a 2.4% position but uh

that's now considered the most crowded

trade. So kind of wild update but anyway

this gives you a little bit more color.

So bullish on the Fed action. I just I

just hope it's not too late. But this is

exactly what we need to keep whether you

call it the bubble or the economy or the

boom going is a soft bet. Hasset will

actually be perfect for shilling it. So

in fairness, it's probably bullish to

get a HSET. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.