Watch BEFORE Tesla Earnings! [$TSLA]

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encourage watching this video before

tesla earnings let's get right into some

of the notes that i have for tesla

expectations for tesla what the heck you

should be expecting and what might

happen here we go jeffrey's upgraded

tesla just a few days ago to 950 dollars

per share from 850

they see a strong capacity ramp up and a

demand ramp up this is good bank of

america upgraded

tesla from 800

to 900

kathy wood maintains that her 2025

target for tesla is three thousand

dollars per share and that is her base

case not even her bull case

credit suisse reiterated tesla at

neutral saying that there are three

themes playing into focus for tesla

number one the build out of berlin the

upside in gross margin and sourcing

dynamics which

generally means how they build out their

supply chains where they're getting

their sources from and the more

efficient they are essentially that

contributes to margin and of course

berlin is an entirely new region for

them uh despite the fact that they're

already shipping cars from china to

europe to sell vehicles in europe uh

giga berlin i think will be huge because

i've personally always believed that

europeans and i could be wrong but i

think europeans want european cars i

know that's like a very like culturalist

if that's a word but i'm just gonna like

move on from that anyway

okay here are the expectations adjusted

eps for tesla is expected to come in at

1.5 1.585

that is about uh that has been revised

up by analysts

9.11 in the last four weeks now this is

really important because when tesla came

out with delivery numbers at the

beginning of october for q3 with a big

beat a lot of analysts came out with

upward revisions which means the stock

ran on expectations that earnings would

beat so we are expecting earnings to

beat based on what tesla told us this is

why analysts are already revising up

remember the stock market is trying to

consolidate as much information as it

can as quickly as possible

so that way you could get in and make

money as quickly as possible that's at

least the theory

there were 10 upward revisions and only

one down revision for adjusted eps last

quarter remember the estimate for tesla

was 0.974

and eps came in with a huge beat at 1.45

and the stock fell

now obviously recently it's gone up but

it was only it's only running up here in

anticipation of earnings and in

anticipation of deliveries we came out

of the uncertainty of september

especially a lot of the uncertainties

around china and now we're kind of

moving into more positive

territory although there's going to be

anxiety going into earnings today

gap eps expectation is 1.161 i'd write

these down okay adjusted eps 1.58

adjust or gap eps 1.16

revenue expectation

13.7

billion this has been revised up about

4.6 percent 11 upward revisions in the

last four weeks

the last earnings estimate by the way

was

11.36 billion and we beat that with

11.95

billion that's pretty big now honestly

we've had about a

19.7 beat on vehicle deliveries so in q3

we beat vehicle delivery expectations by

roughly 20

right now analysts only expect revenue

to go up

about let's see here

one second

11.95

we're going to go to 13.7

analysts are only expecting earnings to

go up about 14.6 percent even though we

beat on deliveries

by

19.7

so there's about a five percent burn

that analysts are including here because

they think supply chains are going to

hurt margins to the downside analysts

actually think we're going to see margin

go down so a really really big catalyst

for tesla stock today is can elon musk

deliver not only more vehicles

but also on a supply crisis

with higher bottom line profit to tesla

more margin

and see right now analysts have a net

revenue of tesla or for tesla estimated

at

1.797 billion that's revised up 11.2

percent in the last four weeks but again

this could be

beaten

as long as those margin numbers come in

strong

now the announcement does come this

afternoon now right after i will be

covering this live so make sure to come

to the channel live

we do expect the average price of cars

to potentially go up

though some analysts expect it to go

down

i personally think it's going to go up

because in q2 we only delivered 1898

model uh model s's and model x's

now we're going to be delivering or we

did deliver

9275 model s's and x's so that's 8 000

more cars at let's say 130 000 in

revenue each could even be more

that's just over a billion dollars

of additional revenue just having these

s's and x's

personally i think this could set tesla

up for a really nice beat on margin and

since analysts are kind of expecting

margin to go down a little bit because

the supply chain crises

having a beat thanks to s and x pushing

margin up could be pretty impressive uh

i'm excited by that see right now if you

took about 232 000 vehicles the threes

and y's times 49 000 average selling

price you get to about 11.36 billion in

revenue this is this is you know roughly

uh

just the threes and y's if you add a

billion dollars for the s's and x's and

i did this math uh i'm just i'm kind of

speeding through this a little bit and

you use 130k average you add in that

about a billion dollars now you're at

about

12.368 billion in revenue and if you

divide that by the deliveries we had we

should be seeing the average price per

car go from about 49k to like 51 300 uh

specifically i wrote down 51 319. so

we'll see

uh this that's about 2 000 more two

thousand dollars more per every car

tesla sells just because they're selling

richie cars like the s x

so the s x really creates the bottom

line boost and margin for the entire

freaking company those s's and x's those

plaids encourage all your friends to get

them but remember what i say don't buy

tesla buy tsla

all right

well by the way we're killing it in

china it's worth noting that chinese

cars have a much higher margin than

those made in europe tesla delivered 74

000 cars in china up 20 percent

uh tesla is expecting a movement of 4.3

after earnings average movement after

earnings historically has been about 5.7

up or down most of the time it's now

so far we have uh here's some analysts

reporting that there's little evidence

of

oems closing the gap

to catch up to tesla's lead i did test

drive full self-driving and i filmed it

i got to really post the video i don't

know maybe tomorrow i'll post a video uh

it's kind of as expected

it's not mind-blowing yet uh but then

again i've been with my version of

self-driving since uh 2017 and i've seen

it evolve so i'm probably a little

harder to impress there are some areas

where i'm like okay i know this car is

going to fail trying to do this it's

just not going to work which is fine

that was expected there are some other

areas where the car was just stupid like

it'd go through a four-way stop and then

stop in the middle of the four-way

intersection and then i just i didn't

even move it i'm just like

when are you gonna recover

stay tuned for that video

the nh tsa

question tesla and why it didn't recall

the autopilot software on wednesday in

response uh this was in response to a

recent over-the-air update from tesla

which improves tesla's vehicle ability

to identify parked emergency vehicles

and the nh tsa has been investigating

crashes of teslas into emergency

vehicles and now wants to know if this

was actually a stealth recall this

software update

honestly it sounds like the

federal government has has a thing for

um tesla i i don't get it it's it's very

annoying it's probably unions and union

appointments and things like that and

i'm not trying to bag on unions okay i

think unions have their place

uh you know but uh

hey whatever so okay here how do we play

tesla now well i personally believe very

carefully i trimmed a little bit of my

exposure to tesla this morning

uh so i sold a little bit of tesla right

at market open which is perfect because

i set a limit order right here and it

instantly executed which was great

because we dipped and now we're kind of

right back there

sold a little bit of tesla uh this was

really because i'm in margin if i was

not in margin i would not be selling

tesla but i sold a tiny little bit of

tesla i also closed some call options

that i had on tesla i still have call

options i still have a boatload of

shares so i really just probably went

from like tesla let's say at 100 to

tesla like 95 right

so not like a massive change here just

using that five percent to kind of

reduce some margin because i don't like

going into earnings with margin i'd

rather

if tesla skyrockets

potentially sell a little bit more to

pay off the rest of the margin

uh and if tesla falls now use the fact

that i paid off some margin to maybe

sell some puts or buy some shares back

so that's my strategy i kind of expect

tesla to fall unless we get an insane

margin beat which we might that's where

it's gonna be margin because the

analysts aren't as optimistic and i

think it could happen because of those

s's and x's so i'm bullish

but i'm cautious so i'm cautiously

bullish

thank you so much for watching this

video by the way if you like my

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october 29th because that's when the

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watching and we'll see you next one

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