The Stock Market Crash.

holy

sh9t the swing today was absolutely

insane I went from essentially in the

trading portfolio all in on calls and

CPI coming in way better than expected

and printing to going to go puts and

then going we're printing again it was

insane this is absolutely insane the

question now is what is next because the

emotional roller coaster that happened

today

was first I'm going to give you what the

educated masses on X think the answer is

the educated answer on X is but Kevin

this is just a rotation from the big STS

into the dit

docks you can't fault people for

thinking that in fact if you jump into

Weeble here you press market cap oh look

at that everything at least on my watch

list over a $240 billion market cap full

on red everything if I flip market cap

to the small side so all these like

micro and small caps lot of green lots

and lots of green and it starts getting

more Christmas like and red as you get

to the larger market caps so is this

just a cracking of the egg is this the a

sign that low CPI says you can finally

get out of the cash Parks which are your

Nvidia which Parks cash and makes a ton

of cash your your uh apples your Amazon

your metas your Google your Microsoft

take your money from those cuz they've

had their run and then throw it all into

small caps and now the small caps are

going to catch up and pop po po pop push

the market back up that way the equal

weighted S&P 500 can finally have a

chance to Rally again after all the S&P

P 500 weighted by market cap is up

17.75% year to date the S&P 500 equal

weight is up

5.85% so you would expect these to

converge again in fact if you zoom out

over 5 years look how close the equal

weight and the market cap weighted S&P

500 is it's usually always sandwiched

together you generally don't get this

kind of spread now the main mainstream

thesis is Kevin it's normal it's a

normal pullback we're going to see the

S&P 500 go down a little bit and the

equal weight go up and the iwm Russell

200 small caps that'll move nicely up so

just move your money from inidia or some

others or just buy the dip and invest it

into the small caps and everything is

going to be okay after all all the

comments on X are like Kevin Kevin it's

healthy for the market to pull back fine

so now we got the educated comments and

thesis out of the way on X now let's

talk about why I believe it's absolutely

Mission critical that Mega cap stabilize

within the next 2 days especially

throughout the earning season otherwise

we could have a little Poopsy dupsy on

our hands we don't want a Poopsy dupsy

on our hands you're going to see why if

Mega cap do not stabilize I believe

almost all stocks will probably follow

them down that's because we might

potentially go back into an environment

of any news is bad news see good CPI

selloff great CPI selloff bad earnings

selloff good earnings selloff great

earnings

selloff I can't guarantee that but that

is a risk and that's just the tip of the

Iceberg see hindsight analysis is great

you know in a year from now we'll be

able to look back and go it's obvious

this but right now we have to be aware

that what happens

if everything is going to go into a

pre-election selloff which you generally

expect before the election usually it

doesn't happen until September and

October but people already expect the

September October sell-off so are we

just going to have the sell-off before

the next quarters early earnings that is

Q2 earnings which come out you know in

the first month of Q3 it's possible this

is why bottom line there might be an

opportunity to pick up some downside

protection here personally if we lose

momentum on Tesla I know some people are

looking for puts on Tesla I'm not

suggesting that just saying I know some

people are looking for that some people

are saying puts onvia it's very risky to

go for these individual targeted stocks

I think a much better strategy and this

is probably where it makes sense to put

more dollah

if you were looking for protection would

be a call option on S triple Q that's

sqqq that is the short NASDAQ 100 see

because if what's happening is indeed

just a rotation from Mega caps to small

caps then

sqqq should go up if this is a broader

collapse of the market and all news is

going to turn into bad news then SLE Q

well the QQ Q index should also go down

leading sqqq to go up now the SLE Q's

it's a triple leverag ETF is dangerous

okay it does 3x whatever the NASDAQ 100

does in the opposite direction so in

another words if the NASDAQ rebounds 2%

tomorrow you should be down 6% on the

sqqq and you get options on that too you

could be down a lot more so this is

risky this isn't personalized advice I'm

just saying if this is a rotation from

Big to small

the qes will go down so you get calls on

short

QQQ if this is a larger sell-off the q's

will go down I think the play here is

obvious Q's

down unless of course this was just a

little fugazi and we're going to bounce

tomorrow after PPI and everything's

going to be all happy and Roses again I

don't know tomorrow's PPI read is

expected to come in at 0.1 for the month

over month0 2 for both the X food and

energy X food energy trade

year-over-year 2.3 core 2.5 all of those

numbers will probably come in low just

like CPI came in low tomorrow or

yesterday God this

morning the numbers are not bad like

inflation is basically proving to be

eventually transitory which is a good

thing the problem is how much pain are

we going to experience in the market

between now and then and the additional

problem is what happens if prices don't

stabilize folks recession when earnings

come into focus and everything goes down

after bad earnings company stocks fall

when company stocks fall companies tend

to start laying off to minimize spending

and maximize earnings per share when

they do that you end up with less

consumer spending in an environment

where consumers are already spending

less look at what's happening with Delta

Airlines did you see Delta Airlines are

earnings Delta Airlines earnings a Miss

on EPS they just can't sell flights for

as much as they used to be able to sell

flights for this is what American

Airlines warned of about a month ago we

already saw this coming on top Now Delta

is arguing it Delta is down 3.99%

today they're year today up 11% but from

their Peak on May 20th they're down

15% then you look at Pepsi another one

that's telling you the consumer is

weakening so much that they actually

have to reduce prices you're going into

a deflationary environment McDonald's

and all the other Staples will probably

continue to fall The only things that

probably will actually hold up would be

pricing power style stocks because they

have the ability to continue to price

but not if everybody gets laid off and

see that's the next phase of the problem

when things start slowing down at Delta

and Pepsi and Walmart and and McDonald's

or whatever you end up having to lay off

especially when the stock market's

falling and see unemployment spikes are

typically very sudden this is why that

famous indicator everybody keeps hearing

of called that s rule almost triggering

a

recession the Su rule measures the

velocity of job loss it compares the

12-month moving average to where we are

now in the Delta between the two you

don't have to understand the mechanics

of it just know it basically triggers

when the rate of job loss is

rapid and see at first job loss starts

like a little piece of of paper on fire

like imagine I took this little notepad

on a little edge of this piece of paper

here and lit it on fire I could probably

sit here with this piece of paper and it

on fire 30 seconds maybe a minute then

I'm going to drop it but I'm not going

to drop it I mean hopefully I put it out

but I'm not just going to drop it see

that would be like the slow burning

right of unemployment Rising when the

trigger goes off dropping this paper

it's like it falling into a pool of

kerosene is bad or

nitroglycerin and you don't even need

fire to light

nitroglycerin we're not going to get

into that but anyway it's just bad then

GDP plummets and you confirm a

recession some suggest again this is

just a rotation Kevin don't worry why

are you pushing for a crash I'm not I do

not want a crash I promise you I

absolutely promise you it is much better

for all of my

startups got three of them for us not to

be in a recession because remember how I

just never really have gotten above an

eight on the bull bear scale again and

I'm kind of like you know I'm just going

to make sure I have this little safety

net of cash because we got a lot of

expenses we got seven kids we got three

startups we got to make sure we can put

like the prop under if we need to and

hold it up right these are very very

important things and we we for our

personal scenarios situations we want to

make sure we have many many many

millions of dollars available even if we

go into recession so we can just Coast

for the next three or four years and get

through a recession and Recovery if

there's a recession I don't want to do

that because they burned my cash it'd be

bad it'd be a lot of suffering and job

loss it would

suck so I want markets to rapidly

recover I want this sell-off to be a

nothing Burger in fact it could be a

glorious buy the dip opportunity look

you got an 8% off sell on Tesla uh you

know uh and really we could talk Tesla

in a different video okay this we

already knew the roboox event was going

to be a nothing Burger the problem is

now you just sort of like accelerated

that

concern I'll talk about that in a

separate video though Jesus Lord maybe

elon's selling somebody says anyway uh

look I I want a bullish Market but

insurance might not be a bad idea here

and we got to look at the reality check

Market valuations have gotten nutty the

put call ratio is way skewed in favor of

calls right now like everybody's been

yoloing and that's probably got to flip

you're probably going to see volatility

indices Skyrocket so maybe you go calls

on vix but deflation is coming that

hurts earnings and then you're going to

see more layoffs we just literally fully

priced in the September rate cut so

we're getting a rate cut in September

per the market right now let me double

check we

are yeah9 995 now okay it was now it's

like half a basis point under uh uh 1%

It was slightly over 1% but we've

essentially fully priced in a rate cut

for September we have now priced in one

and a half Cuts in November and we've

priced in two and a half cuts for

December and for January we've priced in

a full three Cuts so in other words the

market starting to

go whoa whoa if this is more than just a

rotation ouch so how do you play this if

you're not sure of the direction

tomorrow you line up

sqqq just buy one share to keep it like

in your portfolio in your visibility

okay the second thing you do is you buy

iwm or just put it at the top of your

portfolio like you just buy one share of

those two and they'll be sitting there

at the top of your portfolio not

personalized Financial advice then then

then then then then watch them if they

both start going down

sqq well sqq is going to go up right

because it's uh it's an inverse uh but

basically if if the NASDAQ 100 starts

going down and iwm goes down recession

odds go up the yield curve is already

steepening not great because that's

usually painful so if we get a

steepening of the yield curve between

the twos and tens and both of those sell

off

QQQ iwm

the more that happens the more days in a

row that happens the more we are pricing

in a recession which is

very

bad okay that's it now the last thing

that you should really

consider is remembering that tomorrow

the prices and the courses go up on

building your wealth so if you want to

see exactly what positions I'm buying

the strikes I'm buying what I'm doing

what I'm not doing uh what am I

flip-flopping how am I flip-flopping you

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thank you so much good luck out there

okay I'm seriously a little nervous do

not advertise these things that you told

us here I feel like nobody else knows

about this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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