The Tesla ETF & Deliveries Preview

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hey everyone meet kevin here let's talk

about the tesla etf tesla's deliveries

for q1 2021 which are bound to be

released

within the next 24 to 48 hours and hey

let's also talk about well the future of

tests though

it's very very important okay so here we

go first thing first

the tesla etf so when we think of etf

usually we think of things like

arc invest arc x rk arc g

r f vanguard s p 500 uh you know index

fund which is kind of a style ets are

two types of ets

an index based one or an actively

managed one

a little nuance there it doesn't matter

so much uh and yesterday i came upon a

comment

that i thought was really brilliant what

do you think of this

what if you could buy an etf an exchange

traded fund

that included charging companies

a uh maybe a set of battery companies

an insurance company for vehicle

insurance

regular consumer cars residential

consumer style cars like mom and pop

cars your car my car

commercial vehicles like for deliveries

solar panels

solar inverters solar roof

grid sustainable energy products like

mega packs

power walls for powering people's houses

automation robotics and

robo taxis well that would sound like a

pretty freaking awesome etf

and then you kind of draw the connection

you're like wait a minute

tesla is literally all of those things

tesla

stock and tesla as a company literally

has their hand in the cookie jar of all

of these things it's incredible how fast

tesla is we think of tesla which is like

oh you

picture of a model 3 pops up in your

head or a cyber truck

that is just one part it's kind of like

you could buy faraday

solutions the car company let's say uh

or fair to futures

and uh get uh get access to a car right

you could buy quantum scape and get

access to battery technology you could

buy charge point and get a charging

company

you could buy geico and get car

insurance you could buy a rival to get

commercial vehicles

uh you could buy solar panels from

canadian solar you could get solar

inverters and power walls from en phase

and you could get uh you know grid

products probably from somebody else i

can't think of a name right now but you

could get a top automation from

nvidia and qualcomm and intel's mobile

eye

and robo taxi probably those as well

right those are all

different companies which in theory they

each do

some of those things really well like

end enphase does really

well at solar inverters and battery

backups for houses

but tesla stock itself literally does

all of these things and this is what

makes tesla so multifaceted

and i think when we think of tesla stock

we just think about cars and the

production of cars

we completely forget that they're making

innovative batteries the 4680 cells

that they're expanding their

supercharger network faster than any

other company is expanding their

supercharger network tesla's got around

a thousand superchargers combined other

companies have around 4 000

superchargers

and i don't mean all chargers i mean dc

superchargers

tesla's killing it one of the largest

semi trucks the tesla semi is gonna

probably start getting delivered to

pepsi

here towards the end of the year and

we're going to see a factory designing

or manufacturing the semi trucks outside

of nevada

probably this year which is incredible

because originally we were thinking oh

the semi-truck will be built in

uh in gigafactory texas and austin uh

well now we might have

two lines assembling and delivering and

producing and manufacturing and

delivering

semi-trucks it's incredible so when we

put all of these things together yes wow

tesla really kind of is like a really

volatile etf because look it goes up and

down like 33

all the time right but in some ways it

kind of is like

somewhat like an exchange traded fund

it's obviously not we can't call it an

etf

but it kind of acts that way because it

covers so many different things

it's like the best potential diversified

growth play if you can only ever pick

one stock to invest in look at all the

different verticals you get

really really incredible we don't even

give respect yet to car insurance

or the future of uh tesla's dojo

super con computer that could

potentially be its own standalone

business

it's absolutely incredible but uh enough

sort of

gawking over tesla and this etf idea

let's just take a moment and talk about

delivery numbers

for q1 our expectations for those so

here's the thing

wall street expects 174 000 vehicles to

be delivered

this is uh slower than the pace that uh

tesla has leaked

that they are trying to reach tesla is

trying to get to

one million vehicles per year uh here in

2021 so

this year they're trying to get to one

million vehicles and break that one

million per

uh year number obviously next year it

should grow even more

wall street really expects tesla to

deliver somewhere around 880 to 900 000

vehicles this year

which would be significantly more than

the 500 000 that they delivered

in 2020 but one million

vehicles delivered would be doubling

that 500k from 2020

and would really really go to show that

wow tesla can scale a lot faster than

they're oftentimes given credit for

and we're really at the beginning of

that s-curve but think about it when

when you have

the gigafactory berlin hopefully coming

online this year giga

austin coming online this year the

expansion at shanghai and fremont coming

online

this year into next year and now an

expansion outside of giga nevada

for the semi-truck line this is

incredible

the we're just at the beginning of

tesla's growth

however we do have quarterly data coming

up

quarterly data is going to be a little

bit interesting because

the wall street expects 174 000 vehicles

to be delivered and

there is a good chance that uh tesla is

actually going to

miss this delivery expectation i

wouldn't be shocked if it comes in

dangerously low at like 150 to 160

000 now i hope it doesn't but it

wouldn't shock me and that's because

there have been some issues

first the model s and x have been going

through their refresh cycle

maybe not as big of a deal because they

make up a smaller percentage of vehicles

sold at tesla anyway compared to the

model 3 and model y

so it really depends a lot is going to

depend on how well those have scaled up

for us to see a tesla beat it would be

extremely bullish

like if tesla came in it's like we

delivered 180 000 oh my gosh that that

should move the stock pretty

nicely if we get at or a little bit

below expectation

i think a lot of folks think that's

probably what's going to happen

and again we i mean we even had a fire

at gig of fremont

it's not good you know it was a small i

think it was uh

one of the metal tooling shops or

something there was there was a fire at

one of these

it was a small scale fire but it's still

a fire and that causes delays that

damages products uh and damages

machinery and causes delays

so wouldn't shock me to see a miss on

tesla's deliveries here in q1 q1 is also

notoriously a slower quarter

for electric vehicle manufacturers

wouldn't be surprised to see some more

pain for neo

as well especially since they shut down

their line for about a week

now keep in mind the reality is these

electric vehicle manufacturers

they might all be suffering right now in

this electric vehicle sell-off

but we've sold off so substantially in

the ev space

it's possible that these delivery

figures will only actually make a

difference to the share prices

if they're way higher than expected

because we are slowly starting to see

you know the last couple days we've been

green on for example tesla neo

maybe we're starting to see a little bit

more of a push towards

the future of these uh of these

companies growing well

and getting back to a higher stock value

than where they are now because we've

sold off over the last five weeks

but yeah i mean i don't think personally

sort of a bottom line

i don't believe that this quarterly data

is going to be that exciting i don't

think it's going to be that good i

wouldn't hang my hat on it for

short-term

you know calls for example i might hang

my hat on tesla for short-term calls

just because

tesla's momentum has started trending

towards the stock price going up again

but uh these delivery figures i'm not

very optimistic about

but it's not going to negatively affect

me in the event they come in low i'm

kind of expecting them to come in low

and usually i'm pretty optimistic about

tesla and i'm not expecting them to do

poorly

and this quarter though had a lot of

issues not just the fire

uh but also the snx refresh where

they're changing the steering wheel and

changing so many parts they're taking

the facilities offline for a bit

while they conduct this refresh and

they're full steam ahead of trying to

get these

these manufacturing lines back up and

running in full capacity

so not super optimistic about this

quarter however very very optimistic

about the long term

and especially the fact that we've had

the leaks from

elon musk and uh you know tesla

that uh they're targeting a million

vehicles this year

which quite frankly means if we come in

at 160

this quarter which you know elon already

knows what the deliveries are likely

going to be like

so he's already got probably a very

accurate estimate in his mind

so when he thinks we're going to get to

1 million vehicles this

year produced think about what that

means let's say we come in low this

quarter 160

and the next quarter we get to say 250

just as an example

160 plus 250 is uh 410

that means we're gonna have to do 590 in

two quarters

towards the end of the year uh which is

approximately

295 000 vehicles per quarter that means

we're probably by the end of this year

gonna be somewhere around 300

000 vehicles per quarter produced and

sold produced and delivered

by the end of the year if we get to that

kind of pace going into 2022

300 and growing right but 300 000

vehicles

times four quarters is 1.2 million i

think we're going to grow

way better than that once we get into

the next year but i think we're really

going to see some

a massive growth so for example my

projection might be

160 000 for q1 get to say 250 for

q2 but then we're probably going to

overshoot

three pretty quickly go to either 300

000 and q3

maybe we get to that 325 350 000 and q4

and next year we start getting into

ideally for 2020 we start getting

ideally to 400 000 vehicles per quarter

because

that's going to put us on pace for 1.6

million deliveries in 2022

which is roughly my target and i'm super

excited and bullish about that

but that's how i expect this this

deliveries period to ramp up

so we'll see we'll see i think there's

going to be we're definitely going to

want to be patient here

we'll see how these deliveries come up

but i think we're at the beginning of a

curve here in 2021 is going to be

sort of the last of those really slow

growth

start years going into 2022 i think

we're gonna blow expectations out of

water

out of the water q1 2022 that's still a

year away

which for me i look at as a benefit hey

the longer tesla takes to go to the moon

more time i have to buy more shares

thanks so much for watching if you found

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we will see you in the next one thanks

bye

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