Tesla SHOCKER | Critical Tesla Stock Announcement

well Elon Musk is back at it again with

reverse psychology as we get Tesla

delivery numbers on Friday Omar from the

whole Mars catalog on Twitter posted I

plan to increase my stake in Tesla in

the coming weeks and months to which

Elon Musk responded and said please

advise people to be wary of margin loans

Tesla has always been a highly has

always had high variability or has been

a high variability stock my goodness

often with no obvious Rhyme or Reason we

are confident about long-term value

creation but cannot control the manic

depressive nature of the stock market

this initially was seen as bearish but

was it though when I first read the

comment I thought to myself hmm

if that was bearish think about this and

then we're going to get into the

delivery numbers and some of the

catalysts for earnings okay but if Elon

Musk with after hours for trading of the

stocks still open on Friday when he

tweeted this

if it was indeed a bearish comment then

that would almost be seen as insider

trading because if deliveries came in

bad right because you make a bear

comment and then two days go by and then

stock tanks let's say if deliveries came

in poorly then that could be potentially

seen as insider trading but if you make

a bearish comment and then two days

later really good news comes out what

you've actually done is played a little

game of reverse psychology hey look I I

told people not to buy the stock okay I

I would never pump a stock I told people

not to buy it as a matter of fact it's

kind of a potential Elon Musk line right

I actually replied to that tweet and

said signed the SEC appointed Handler

for Elon Musk because as we know after

the 420 Saga Elon Musk is supposed to

have somebody who monitors every single

one of his tweets and I thought that is

the perfect thing to do right before

good news

leave a bearish comment so you could

reverse psychology the SEC man look I'm

cautioning folks the stock just goes up

it's I I'm not pumping it it's just the

stock doing its Insanity it's no Rhyme

or Reason for this

kind of brilliant so what just happened

uh yes well it is a course lecture

filming uh completion day so we're

posting some lectures tonight which is

really exciting new lectures coming out

uh okay but what we actually got were

deliveries we got some pretty incredible

numbers here so the market was expecting

400 and about 45

000 vehicles to be sold by Tesla this is

approximate some estimates were around

448 some were a little lower but nobody

was really higher than about

455. and uh what we got was actually

something I felt like maybe I should

have talked about a little bit more but

it's not attempted to be a Pitch here

but I do have a Tesla affiliate link

when people go to

metkevin.com

task lab you could actually see how many

people I've referred to Tesla and like

30 days ago that was 98 and granted I've

pitched it a few times with some of the

tax credits but that's shot up to I

think it's it's over like 130 now or

something crazy like that and I thought

to myself wow it really seems like that

link is functioning a lot more this

quarter than it previously had and for

me that was a little bit of a leading

indicator like all right whatever the

drama is I'm just gonna hoddle through

these delivery numbers because really

I'm in this one for the long term anyway

but uh personally I'm like do I really

want to trim before deliveries number

delivery numbers as they secure the 7

500 tax credit on the model 3 and the

potential another 7 500 you can get in

California which is like 15 grand in tax

credits it's insane yes it's income

restricted but still like if you were a

sole proprietor let's say an

entrepreneur and you had a money losing

year because you got a startup or

whatever you get 15 grand off a Tesla

Model 3 how nuts is that anyway uh it's

crazy so what do you got over here well

what we actually got were deliveries

that were quite remarkable we got

deliveries that came in at

466 140. that's actually up 83 percent

year over year now that's actually a bit

of a dangerous number what I think uh

this is a little bit misleading to quote

or why I think it's misleading is this

actually refers to Q2 of 2022 and you

might remember Shanghai was basically

shut down for the majority of the second

quarter it seemed like that was a pretty

bad quarter for Tesla and comparing to

that is like comparing to a whole right

I mean when you have a chart that goes

up and then you have a chart that goes

down and even chart that goes up again

when you're here and you're comparing to

the whole obviously that distance that

we just drew right here that x value is

going to be greater than if you compared

to let's say just before the whole which

we'll call the why well the Y in this

case would be q1 2022 so what I did is I

compared to q1 just to understand this

you know the magnitude of this growth

and while Q2 had growth of 83 percent

year over year if we go back and compare

basically 15 months ago to q1 we

actually get about

50.3 percent that's because they had

about 310 000 deliveries that's pretty

remarkable the fact that we're basically

back to now that 50 growth rate which is

remarkable again you know not no no

shade here on Tesla at all now what we

could do as well is we could get the

quarter over quarter comparison we could

just look up really quick the exact

number of the q1 deliveries for 2023

which those were 422 and then we can

kind of create an annualized rate of

growth here right so we have

422 875 that was your q1 number we just

have four six six one four oh so we're

going to divide these and that's going

to be our growth rate quarter over

quarter and if we multiply this by four

x by 4. what you're doing is you're

creating an annual growth rate of sales

not production but if I divide these

four two two eight seven five I get uh

10.23 percent times four I'm at about a

growth rate of 40.92 percent much better

than what Wall Street is currently

estimating of really 25 to 30 percent so

this right here that spread is actually

really good for the stock if they can

hold it up right because if that's wall

Street's expectation and that's what

we're actually growing at well then that

means you you have some Alpha there

right this is uh this is return above

Market expectations which would be your

Alpha

okay great that's why we want to seek

Alpha right hence the website okay so

that's phenomenal uh these are really

really good delivery numbers production

numbers came in at

479.7 and we so again still a little bit

above the 466 but that's old news now we

are producing more than we're selling at

this point initially that was blamed on

a lack of like trains and Freight cars

uh now International Freight really is

in a freight recession and they're kind

of begging for deliveries so I don't

suspect this is as much of an issue

anymore now but uh we're just we're

growing production slightly faster but

honestly they're relatively close so I'm

okay with that now what are the

catalysts that we really want to pay

attention to going forward well

obviously you need to mark your calendar

for July

19th uh now before I talk about July

19th I do want to mention that link down

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click on it there okay so what's July

19th well it's earnings day so July 19th

is earnings day for Tesla this is uh

this is a obviously an important

Catalyst I want to talk about things

we're going to be looking for uh for

earnings I did have a question that came

up though hey a lot of people

complaining about Twitter with the rate

limiting for messaging is that going to

affect Tesla stock in short no quite

frankly most practical users do not get

rate limited this is only you know

trending because there's maybe a half of

one percent of users who abuse the

system and and basically run AI to

scrape data from Twitter and that's not

what it's designed for you're supposed

to pay for that and hence they have rate

limiting do I actually think that is

going to affect the revenues at Twitter

No do I think that bad revenues that

Twitter could affect Tesla stock and

again again in the future if Elon has to

sell absolutely do I think rate limiting

has an impact on that no

great so now

earnings what are the big catalysts okay

well they're going to be the Catalyst of

what everybody talks about and they're

going to be the Catalyst that I think

actually matter so everyone and their

mom is going to talk about margin and

let's just put it this way anything

under 19 percent

is bad

if uh like their estimates going as low

as 16 so you've kind of got this range

16 to 19 obviously the lower the worse

because your EPS is just going to tank

here

what would be fantastic is getting a two

in the front again so if we can get

anything above a two that would be very

very good however it could be offset by

two big problems that I believe may be

coming to Tesla and that is going to be

your cash flow issue which uh last

quarter fell to under half a billy which

is still pretty good for a company

that's expanding as much it is but you

know consider what you have you've got

Shanghai expansions you've got uh Nevada

expansions you've got Texas and Berlin

you've got uh Northeast Mexico and then

potentially future announcements here of

of other gigafactors this is insane

these are so many things going on at

once and it's actually what Tesla should

be doing uh you know you should remember

if you've been watching my videos for a

while now I've always talked about the

idea of like look once you figure out

the gigafactory model put them around

the world Elon Musk has famously just

recently been to countries like India

and France teasing new gigafactories

coming to those areas Elon Musk does not

like the phrase copy and paste because

he sees each Giga as having a priority I

respect that but I'm a big fan of

expanding what they should be doing is

investing it's like Intel

dump money into doing what is good for

the future of your company you want to

see investment unless it's investment

like what and and I know I piss people

off when I say it but I just want to be

transparent okay look we can still have

coffee together we can still have a beer

together maybe uh

I don't like meta I don't like Facebook

because I think they're throwing money

down the drain of this this virtual

reality stuff I think that's 10 years

down the road quite frankly I think Tess

uh Apple is is already five years ahead

of of meta in terms of technology and I

think the money they throw into reality

Labs is a waste of money and so in my

opinion I don't like investing in

companies that are throwing research and

development and fixed investments into

things I don't believe in whereas with

Tesla I'm like of course I believe in

the Cyber truck and uh the the solar

energy division energy by the way solar

like if you're looking for a weak part

of the market right now

solar

and face you know these kind of

companies anyway those will rebound and

people are gonna be like man I wish

somebody told me to bang the deeper and

stealer hashtag not personalized

Financial advice obviously I don't know

your situation even though I am a

license financial advisor and run an

actively managed ETF and have courses on

building your wealth link down below

anyway all that said uh I believe in

what Tesla's throwing money at the

problem is you could end up going

flat or negative here in terms of cash

flow

any negative here will be

driven by a margin Miss

so if you get like a 16 margin you're

going to be negative free cash flow and

they don't actually have as much cash as

people say people like they have 20

billion dollars on the balance sheet

are you literally just reading one line

of the balance sheet then because if you

look at the bills they have

they've got like 23 billion dollars in

bills it's kind of like if you're at a

desk and it's like look I got 20 billion

dollars I'm rich dude you have 23

billion dollars of bills you're upside

down bro

oh well at least we're making money well

I don't know are you right that's the

point so we're gonna be looking at the

cash flow number specifically the free

cash flow number I've been referring to

the free cash flow number here going

from to under half a bill and then

potentially negative free cash flow just

takes out the capital goods Investments

uh it's just you have to subtract that

from the next line of the cash flow

statement

we do that kind of stuff by the way

every day in the course member live

streams where we're analyzing in detail

various different companies uh whether

it's companies that just reported on

earnings or otherwise it's really good

and you get an archive of fundamental

analysis that I think is super high

quality and has been a very good leading

indicator for a lot of stock movements

lately which we've been very excited by

so anyway

um

what is the next Catalyst well obviously

margin free cash flow I would say this

is probably priority number one uh this

however is probably number one shocker

uh and then I I like followed by a close

second shocker would be a raise I really

think this is likely and who knows maybe

what we talked about earlier with Elon

is is exactly what elon's teasing here

but if they do a money raise I think

people initially are just going to lose

their mind but it wouldn't be on like it

wouldn't be surprising for Tesla to

raise five to ten billion dollars uh

with the stock where it is because you

know it's it's at a nice much nicer

level than where it has been much of the

last year and uh you know if you

consider the market cap of Tesla right

now it's at 820 billion dollars even if

they raised 10 Billy you shouldn't be

too nervous about it like is it really a

reason to dump the stock because you're

worried they're going to do a raise that

would represent 1.2 percent of the

market cap the stock tends to move down

more than that so you could see a five

percent downward movement but with these

delivery numbers honestly you'll

probably be up more than what you you

would be down following a raise Tesla

might actually be smart to announce the

raise before earnings because think

about it usually what happens is you get

the delivery numbers so it's good news

for the stock stock goes up then you get

earnings that's when you get margin and

free cash flow and future forecast stock

usually goes down so when would the best

time be to raise in my opinion right

before earnings

uh so I think it's coming I think it's

coming within the next year almost

certainly

but I'm okay I'm prepared for that and

I'm not afraid of that I'm willing to

huddle the stock through that again I

think it'll be relatively nominal

compared to the market cap of the

company and again the reason I say this

is just so when it happens you're not

like oh my God they're dumping on retail

what is this no this is this is totally

normal and you as an investor providing

that liquidity for Tesla to do that is

enabling Tesla to build more factories

it's the whole point it's the whole

point of the stock market I really think

people forget what the point of the

stock market is people think the point

of the stock market is for you to make

money

that can happen if you play it correctly

that can happen but the point of the

stock market is actually to provide

liquidity for a company it creates a

Marketplace for small slivers of

ownership stake in their company which

can generate money for them and it also

helps them compensate their employees

and their employees feel good when the

stock goes up and blah blah blah blah so

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very much for watching and see in the

next one good luck and