An Urgent Warning to Investors

hey everyone meet kevin here in this

video i'm going to provide some

suggestions for getting through the pain

of this recession and market crash

because look folks here's the thing

there's no questioning it our markets

are in correction the s p 500 just

crossed into the correction territory

down 22 percent year to date things have

just gotten worse nasdaq technology down

31.23 percent year to date tesla ford

down 44

apple down 27 and speculative assets or

recent ipos be it crypto robin hood

coinbase they're down 60 to 80 percent

folks if you are suffering in this

market

we're all suffering right now i'm down a

lot and it sucks for example tesla is

down 400 million dollars on just their

bitcoin position and elon musk isn't in

the 200 billion dollar club anymore he's

lost that status square's lost like 42

million on crypto microstrategy's down

like 1.1 billion on crypto and at the

same time 30-year mortgage rates in

america that one place that's been

holding out making us think that oh well

at least real estate hasn't corrected

yet is about to especially since this is

the chart of the 30-year mortgage rate

now at 5.87 percent on an index which

means those who are actually qualifying

and getting pre-approved are likely

getting pre-approved for between 6.2 to

6.5 folks that is nearly 4 percent

higher than where we were in december so

how are consumers responding well

they're taking on more debt consumer

debt has risen to the highest level the

highest level of increases that we have

seen since we started tracking consumer

debt in the late 80s in just the last

two months being devastating total

revolving credit has never exploded this

high as it has in the last two months

and we have an average of 25

more margin debt than we did just two

years ago a personal savings rate at the

same time down to 2008 levels we're now

saving less than five percent of our

incomes which is no surprise when

interest rates on anything from credit

cards to student loans to home loans to

car loans are skyrocketing and the pain

is being felt by everyone take a look at

this here's a chart of six figure

earners in the united states if they're

feeling the pain we know lower incomes

are also suffering 63 percent or six in

10 millennials making between 100 to 150

000 per year reported now living

paycheck to paycheck that's crazy six

figures used to be the gold standard and

now six and ten millennials are living

paycheck to paycheck in this threshold

and it's not just them it's even 49 so

half to 55 percent of millennials making

more than

150 000 per year also reported living

paycheck to paycheck and boomers who had

been making six figures plus for decades

potentially

one in four to one in five of them are

also living paycheck to paycheck if we

look at the bottom quintile of earners

the bottom 20 percent of earners have

less money than they did in 2019 and

folks this chart here is as of december

of 2021 that's before we went through

five to six months of stock market hell

and insane inflation the bottom eighty

percent of americans barely have more

cash than they did in 2019 and since

this measure was taken in december of

2021 we could assume that right now a

lot of that excess cash is just straight

up

gone so it's really unshocking that

consumer sentiment has now crashed to

the highest level of negativity we have

seen since 2008 with more people now

reporting that they feel negative about

economic and future conditions than

positive that's right we have flipped

more people are now negative than

positive in the consumer sentiment

survey but then again how could we not

have negative sentiment when we're at

40-year highs with an inflation disaster

the ukraine crisis leading to food and

energy shortages and new fears that

china is aggressively conducting

flyovers over taiwan even reportedly

buzzing canadian planes raising concerns

that putin's war in ukraine will

encourage other countries like china to

invade taiwan and other countries to

nuclearize and get aggressive as well so

again where can we go to know that we

feel like crap well we could look at

real estates of gdp real estates of gdp

now close to zero percent meaning our

economy is stagnating yield curves are

inverting again meaning the bond market

is predicting a recession within the

next year quite frankly we might already

be in one and of course massive

inflation quite frankly is no surprise

since we printed five trillion dollars

since the start of the pandemic that's

30 percent of the money that we have in

circulation and quite frankly there's a

reason why the pandemic was the shortest

crash that we've ever had because we had

a big fat money printer to bail us out

which we don't have

today so when retail stores are telling

us that their inventories are now

skyrocketing that inventories are up

130 at crocs over a three-year average

that amazon has 77 more inventory the

target has 61 percent more inventory

that home depot has 53 more inventory

it's no surprise because people have

decided to stop spending money because

they don't have any left

and that's why buying the dip has also

started to dry up retail inflows into

the stock market are finally starting to

slow down and the question now is will

the stock market bottom around the same

time as retail investors say enough is

enough it's time to capitulate and so

where are people making money today well

the people making money today are the

ones shorting the market

sqq which is the triple short nasdaq is

up 122

the

short arc k etf s arc is up more in the

last seven months than kathy woods arc

fund has been up in the last five years

combined

big five has a 44.8 short interest ratio

camping world is at 43.9 percent short

and bed bath and beyond sits at roughly

30 short investors realize that the

spending days are over but the last

place people are still spending money is

in the place that we just don't have the

capacity to actually support it air

travel we don't have enough air traffic

controllers we don't have enough pilots

we don't even have enough planes to

service the amount of people who want to

fly so really once again and take a shot

every time i say it's unsurprising but

it's unsurprising that airfares rose 18

in one

month in april which is over a 200

inflation rate annualized and another 12

percent

in may that's insane at some point even

wealthier consumers are going to either

be out of money or they're going to be

unwilling to spend especially if we get

those cracks in the real estate market

that we're expecting

with real estate rates now four

percentage points higher

i'm unsurprisingly expecting the real

estate market to correct and if the real

estate market corrects potentially as

much as 20 to 30 percent

we expect people to spend even less

money especially on construction

and places like home depot lowe's and

travel because some of the wealthiest

people that we have in america are

landowners it's one of the best ways to

build your wealth in fact folks this is

why i have a program on how to build

your wealth by investing in real estate

you can become a millionaire investing

in real estate and we have a crash

opportunity coming up this is why i

absolutely recommend you check out the

links down below for the programs on

building your wealth especially that

zero to millionaire real estate

investing course

but i have some free suggestions for you

here and these are not financial advice

for you but i want to help you become a

survivor so the very first step is i

highly recommend you subscribe to the

channel stay up to date with the latest

market news and as i see things changing

in the market i can tell you about them

it doesn't mean that you need to change

your portfolio every single day but it

does mean that you can be aware of

what's happening before

regular people in america realize it and

you can be one of the survivors the more

informed you are the more likely it is

that you can be a survivor so what are

the steps to survival well step number

one be patient so here's the thing about

patience folks take a look at this chart

it's all about recessions see the blue

line that's the s p 500 right now and

it's laid over bear markets going all

the way back to

1929 when there was no recession but we

had a bear market in the stock market we

see the gray line over time that is days

before and after a peak prior to the

bear market right so basically what you

really want to know is that we're the

blue line and we still have the gray or

the black line ahead of us and the big

difference to determine if we've hit

bottom or not

is whether or not we're actually going

to have a recession

see if we don't have a recession we

could potentially at least comparing to

history be at a bottom now that's

because you could see the bottom of that

blue line is lower than the gray line's

lows however if we do end up having a

recession we could have multiple more

lows ahead of us

even with some bull traps that is bull

runs in between maybe lasting anywhere

between

three weeks to six weeks so this is very

important to keep in mind but it's not

just that look at this the s p's bear

market durations have an average but

it's not just this when but it's not

just this ignore the recession for a

moment if we take a look at bear markets

in general the median recession time is

eight months no

but it's not just this take a look at

bear markets in the s p 500 the average

duration of bear markets is 11 months

we've only been in this for five months

so far take a look at this crash in red

compared to all of the other lengths of

bear markets and this is why we have a

median bear market time of eight months

so buckle up for more pain and again

don't think about the bailout that we

got in march of 2020 sure with the covet

crash it took us 103 days to recover but

the great financial crisis took a

thousand and nine days to recover and

the dot-com bubble took us one thousand

one hundred sixty-five days to recover

the recovery from coven was a total

fluke and so far

we've been

at a 111 days of pain so far

and we're not even starting the recovery

day time frame yet because look at that

great financial crisis had pain of 352

days

dot com bubble had pain for 638

days we're a baby bear market with a

long way to go but look sometimes these

are opportunities in fact a fed u-turn

oftentimes marks the best time to invest

now who knows some say that this could

be a different time that this time could

be different and the true bottom will

come before the federal reserve switches

to accommodation potentially in late

2023 or in 2024 but then again the most

dangerous words investing or

historically this time is different

instead you should be prepared for being

extremely patient before the federal

reserve even remotely becomes

accommodative so don't get too

optimistic on green days and don't get

too pessimistic on red days patience is

going to be key for investors for all of

2022 and likely a lot of 2023

and see the next most important step

this is step number two is literally

surviving the market the most important

thing here is not

losing your money and realizing massive

losses let me show you why let's say you

invested a hundred thousand dollars for

40 years and let's say you invested that

at five percent per year investing in

index funds and you didn't care if the

stock market went up or down you just

held through it all at five percent per

year

and then you compared your returns to

somebody else making ten percent per

year because maybe they're a really good

stock picker but for 40 years you held

taking an average of 5 per year through

good times and bad

but the other person who doubles your

returns almost every single year for the

next 40 years and doubles your returns

for 38 out of 40 of those years with a

95

success rate

ends up losing money in just two years

year 10 and year 20 on a 40-year horizon

they take a 60 percent loss in their

trades that means you are steady yeti 5

averaged out over time 40 years if you

go 40 40 years back stock market on

average returns 7.9 percent not even

considering dividends you go forward

assuming just five percent through good

times and bad

without selling

you ended up doing substantially better

than the person who actually had a 10

return doubling your performance

95 of the time in fact that 100 000

would have grown to over 650 000

for the person who had just a 5 percent

return over 40 years and the person who

had double that return had between 15 to

20 percent less money than the patient

investor who wasn't the trader trying to

double the return of other people those

two loss years cost them

long-term outperformance over 40 years

and so this is why patience is so

important and staying out of debt and

margin debt and credit card debt is

critically important see the pandemics

taught us something very important that

there's no such thing as job security

people said there was job security

working for the police department and

then defund the police happened people

said there was job security for cutting

hair and then the pandemic happened and

people cut their own hair folks you

should never ever get complacent with

your job and this psychology is very

important because it keeps you out of

debt and that

staying out of debt helps you be that

survivor who can patiently survive

through the hard times if you're in debt

you should be motivated to get out of

debt as soon as possible i mean credit

cards margin debt car loans and anything

that lowers your ability to build your

wealth fast track paying these off and

get out of debt this is what it means to

be a survivor

and folks that's just step two being a

survivor getting out of debt making sure

you have the

realization that your job is not

permanent and of course making sure that

you are patient because this is the time

to be patient and the example i gave

shows you exactly why don't be a loser

in the hard times

next step get educated do what you can

to better yourself professionally delay

retirement if you have to this is the

time to try to make hay this is the time

to take on the other job and work hard

get educated get a license become a

licensed real estate agent people need

your help more than ever now people need

your financial suggestions more than

ever now if you can become a series 65

licensed financial advisor a registered

investment advisor become a cpa help

people make money by preserving their

wealth because if you can start in a new

industry at the bottom of the market and

you become a survivor during the tough

times you can win big during the easy

times anybody can make money in a bull

market if you can help people make money

and save wealth during a difficult time

you're a hero who's always going to make

it and this is why if you're thinking

about oh i don't know is now a good time

to become licensed or to become a coder

or go to a coding boot camp or whatever

absolutely now is the time to double

down and make more money than ever

before and step number four folks

concentrate into cash and your highest

conviction investments now this is

different for everyone so it's not

financial advice i give a lot of

suggestions but i can't give you

financial advice because i'm not a

financial advisor and i don't know your

situation and i've got lots of

suggestions this is why i have programs

on building your wealth link down below

they're 50 off now the largest discount

that we've had so that way you can take

advantage of everything that we know

especially about building wealth through

real estate which is our most popular

sales program right now but take

advantage of that coupon code because it

is expected to expire within the next

week so check it out link down below but

folks

cash is really important right now folks

like to say that oh well cash gets eaten

away by inflation no it doesn't cash

only gets eaten away by inflation to the

extent that you need that cash for

groceries and energy like gas or travel

expenses but if you have cash available

for investments and investments like

assets are getting less expensive

because real estate prices are falling

or stock prices are falling your dollar

is actually building wealth not losing

wealth and so remember folks cash is a

great opportunity and concentrating into

your highest conviction investments will

help you become more patient some people

say now's the time to diversify i

personally highly disagree with that i

think you bet on train america you bet

on the american recovery

and if you have high conviction names

that you want to bet on within that you

do so but you bet on the best american

real estate the best american companies

in america in general i don't personally

think diversifying in down times is the

best suggestion but folks everyone can

have a different opinion on this and

these are my suggestions and your urgent

warning

for this recession or potentially

upcoming depression now just a side

additional note for those of you still

watching at this point i just want to

mention that when lauren and i bought

our first home in the bottom of the real

estate market in 2010 to 2011 folks

everybody around us told us it's a

terrible time for real estate this is

the worst time to buy real estate oh i

feel sorry for you oh my gosh this is

terrible

stupid stupid stupid don't listen to

other people listen to yourself and if

you feel like something is a good deal

and there's a good opportunity whether

it's in stocks today or maybe in real

estate or in a year or two from now when

we start seeing an increase in

potentially job loss and foreclosures

folks

get

ready that's my best suggestion for you

and i wish you the best because we are

doing exactly that we're getting ready

to buy real estate we're buying stocks

today and we're going to be buying real

estate in the next two years because

we've already sold our real estate at

what we think is the top and we're

excited for an opportunity to get back

in soon thanks for watching folks and

we'll see you soon