Blood Bath Continues | Time to Buy Stocks & Crypto?

hey everyone me kevin here three things

we've got to talk about in this video

first we're going to talk about

information at home the united states

and we're going to talk about russia and

then we're going to talk about china

we'll also throughout the video talk

about uh pricing and markets uh bitcoin

oil odds of a recession and is now

potentially the time to buy let's talk

about that so first the market is

pricing in now a 68 chance of a 25 basis

point hike by the federal reserve which

is interesting because it was just about

a week and a half ago that we were

pricing in near a 100 chance of a 50

basis point hike by the fed it looks

like the market is really thinking the

fed is going to continue on there uh

don't worry eventually this inflation

will be transitory course and they're

going to go for that 25 25 2020 and so

on and so forth

throughout the rest of the year for all

of their fed policy meetings we've got

another seven policy meetings coming up

and all seven of these could experience

a 25 basis point hike which would bring

us to about one and a half to maybe one

point seven five percent the in terms of

a fed funds range some estimates show

that maybe we'll actually make it to two

percent by the end of the year but that

would probably require some more fed

aggression or the fed essentially

turning even more hawkish than what the

market is pricing in right now so if we

get a 50 basis point hike at this point

in march it would come as a shock to

markets with most markets now pricing in

just a 25 basis point hike and then

already starting to price in cuts in

2024 so the market's planning for sort

of some short-term slowness from the fed

raising rates too much over time here

and then eventually you turning on those

rates by 2024. in europe already seeing

that u-turn getting priced in in 2023

where rates might get cut in 2023.

it all comes down to though how strong

and lasting will inflation be and the

place not to look for an answer is in

the consumer confidence survey that came

out today we had consumer confidence

come in slightly better than expected at

110.5 versus the expectation of 110 this

is down from january but the problem was

the a one-year inflation expectation for

consumers actually rose to seven percent

that is up from the six point eight

percent expected and this is not ideal

because any time the federal reserve

sees that inflation expectations are

becoming what's known as entrenched

more and more then the fed is more

likely to raise rates and be more

aggressive to bring that expectation

back down see inflation does this funny

thing where it's kind of a

self-fulfilling

matter essentially if people believe

there will be inflation and believe

there will be high inflation then

they're more likely to spend more money

today leading to those prices actually

rising to the levels expected so you've

got this really weird thing going on

when it comes to inflation and a lot has

to do with expectations big fears now

that supply chains

resolving themselves won't actually end

up solving our inflation issues as we

end up with either a wage price spiral

or more of what companies like gm or

ford are doing where they're purposely

throttling supply chains to keep prices

high

you also probably don't want to look at

home depot earnings for any sign about

how inflation and higher labor logistic

or supply chain costs are affecting

business home depot fell the most today

that it's fell falling in the last year

it's down over five percent

all thanks to these inflationary

pressures we did get the purchasing

managers index come in at uh 56 this is

sort of getting back to a more normal

level again after a brief dip in

january due to omicron now we've got to

talk about well first of all macy's beat

as well and i have to say some of the

recovery stocks have been doing quite

well macy's beat dave and buster's

actually still doing quite well as a

stock still worried about the debt loads

that some of these though really macy's

has some phenomenal real estate and they

announced today that they will not plan

on separating their company into sort of

an online business and a retail business

they're going to keep the company

together so a lot of enthusiasm here

along with share buybacks announced

and dividend but what we've got to talk

about is the potential that geopolitics

is actually

creating a buying opportunity and this

is of course where we talk about russia

we know that joe biden's going to speak

at 11 a.m pacific 2 p.m eastern today on

russia so he'll probably be live

somewhere around 30 minutes later

because they always seem to be about 30

minutes late but anyway what's important

is that right now geopolitics especially

our ukraine issues and we're going to

talk about china in just a moment

are potentially creating a buying

opportunity and the evaluation that you

have to make here is

do you believe that inflation will end

up being transitory that when supply

chains resolve themselves

inflation will come down and the federal

reserve will be able to relax on their

hikes

and that remember for inflation to

persist we need prices not just to go up

once but to go up once and then again

and then again right and that becomes a

tough thing to do over and over again

you raise the price as we've said as an

example before of this apple pencil from

100 to 110 dollars to get another 10

level of inflation we'd have to raise

the price of this pencil to 121 dollars

could that happen well i mean if you

look at oil the answer might be yes we

hit 98 dollars today on brent we're

getting dangerously close to that 100

figure which is going to create a lot of

inflationary fears

but if you're not worried about the fud

of inflation and for whatever reason or

whatever your belief is which could

happen you believe that inflation will

end up going down we're going to start

seeing that month over month inflation

number or reading come down

then geopolitical issues can oftentimes

be a good opportunity to buy the dick

usually according to bloomberg it takes

about three weeks during geopolitical

issues like war it takes about three

weeks for us to find a bottom we

generally see an average decline of 5.5

percent and it takes about three weeks

to recover in full so three weeks down

average decline about five and a half

percent three weeks to recover but the

takeaway here is that geopolitical risks

tend to be short term so if you're

looking for an opportunity to buy the

dip it's entirely possible that the

drama over russia and ukraine could

create a short-term buying opportunity

and i would

generally if if i was not concerned

about lasting inflation i would

generally be seeing this as a wonderful

opportunity to buy companies that i like

at even lower prices

now let's talk a little bit about russia

it's no surprise that right after the

olympics ended russia decided to

recognize the separatist regions of

eastern ukraine the independent regions

now

apparently at least according to russia

needing the protection and peacekeeping

of russian troops and this has now been

declared an invasion of ukraine by joe

biden concerns are now that russia will

also end up making its way to the

capital kiev and that u.s or the united

states has now pulled all of its embassy

staff out of all of ukraine not just

certain parts and parked them in hotels

in poland until further notice other

countries have also been withdrawing

embassy staff

it's worth noting that these these uh

sort of little nibbles uh bring a lot of

people's memories back or at least

historical memories of back to 1938 and

1939 where german troops marched into

austria to annex the german-speaking

part of austria

germany a lot of all they speak german

and austria so all of it uh and about a

year later germany ended up you know

invading poland but don't worry it's

just austria don't worry it's just

poland don't worry it's just the

separatist region of ukraine now russia

of course is saying that the situation

in the donbass is worsening and that

individuals here need to be protected

remember just last week russia was

offering stimulus money

to people to leave it was like 113

dollars they were giving people 113

stimulus checks to essentially leave the

region

leading up to their invasion so they're

trying to get people out of this russian

speaking area and into russia

now the russian parliament was just

voting to approve putin's uh deployment

of troops uh in in the uh

the donbass region and potentially even

further uh parliament has just given

that approval to putin

now we also have a lot of references

coming back to joe biden and a lot of

individuals wondering why does it seem

like joe biden is not being the best

potential teammate here for ukraine

obviously individuals say that biden is

in a very difficult spot because on one

hand if you start having us troops

shooting at russian troops you end up

potentially with world war iii whereas

if the united states helps ukraine in

covert either behind the scenes maybe

they help militarily without of anyone

actually knowing u.s troops are there

maybe they supply weapons which ukraine

is asking for more u.s and

more weapons from the u.s and the united

kingdom just this morning they did that

they've already received over 500

million dollars a worth of other

equipment and weapons and they're

seeking more

but anyway uh a lot of this talk about

biden is sort of bringing back memories

of campaign era biden where joe biden

said on twitter vladimir putin doesn't

want me to be president he doesn't want

me to be our nominee if you're wondering

why it's because i'm the only person in

this field who's ever gone toe-to-toe

with him and so a lot of folks are

looking back at this going

what are you doing now

well uh obviously

a little bit of a

in between a rock and a hard place and

we're looking at what sanctions packages

are expected to come not just from the

united states potentially today the

european union as well but also the

impacts of germany cancelling nordstrom

2. this is an opportunity for russia to

send natural gas and oil directly over

to europe

and unfortunately germany has cancelled

this

as in response to russia's aggression

now russia believes and has released a

statement that they believe the

cancellation of the nordstrom 2 pipeline

will be temporary

we also see that commodities like a

nickel which are important in ev

production are skyrocketing to all-time

new highs especially on these russia

tensions because there are fears that

essentially extracting nickel from

regions around russia and ukraine might

become more difficult

as these tensions escalate russia also

expects uh to uh

essentially maintain peace in these

separatist regions and at least right

now they say they don't plan to go any

further but we've heard this before you

know as a week ago it was we have no

plans to invade in fact we're

withdrawing some troops at the same time

more troops were being brought and then

they ended up invading

uh at least the separatist regions all

right so

now

all of this

is is to say that yeah obviously there's

somewhat of an opportunity potentially

to buy the dip again as long as you do

not believe that inflation issues will

last now we do have to talk about

bitcoin and china but folks just take a

look for a moment here at where we're

trading on the spy first of all look at

these multiple rejection points here

along the

23.6 fibonacci here we've tried breaking

out a few times here but we just haven't

made it and we've really been getting to

about that 430 line that's where it

seems like the spy is trying to head

trying to consolidate around uh qqq

obviously i had a little bit of a spike

here at the uh almost looks like a

double top here a little bit of a an

excitement uh or exciting spike as the

day opened up but unfortunately that has

quickly been sold another sort of

convictionless rally who knows though

maybe we'll rally into the close we do

need to talk about bitcoin though uh

glass node via cnbc reporting uh that

for bitcoin there recently has been a

lot

of uh

languishing activity they say very low

on-chain activity low money moving in

and out of accounts they say that 28.7

percent of bitcoin toddlers are at a

loss right now and if you bought within

the last five months you are 54 likely

to be underwater and this particular

group being the most likely to sell and

glassnote is now reporting an increase

of wallets that have been essentially

extinguished or dropped to zero now

bitcoin fear index sitting at 20 out of

100 which is the extreme fear level if

we go out to the day chart here on btc i

know we're going to see a whole lot of

lines here but it's worth just zooming

in here for a moment because we could

really see that once we broke this 42

000 shelf right here where my mouse is

last time we broke the 42 shelf look at

that we went right back down to about

that 36 level and that's essentially

where we dropped to right now if we go

to the one hour we could get a little

bit more of an up close and personal

look over here we briefly dropped to

about a 36 381 which sits right here on

the 36

376 support level you can see just five

dollar

five dollars away from a bounce on this

line here pretty incredible if you don't

have these lines yet i definitely

encourage uh writing these down here

i'll hide myself for a second

uh and right now we are struggling

around that 37 6 line so you could copy

those there on the right

okay and now we've briefly got to talk

about oil and china oil obviously news

about the north stream too

and uh expectations that this

cancellation was coming from germany

leading oil briefly to surge up to 98

dollars per barrel on brent near that

100 level that has come back down and

relaxed a little bit a since

which is very very good we just got news

as well coming across here that the

mints agreement was quote dead long

before the don boss was recognized by

putin so this is a slam on a peace

accord between ukraine and russia putin

now calling that dead

now oil oil recovering uh recovering

that is going down which is kind of the

opposite of what we think when we

recover but anyway uh going recovering

for all of our energy sakes dropping to

about 96 at a point a five on brent just

below 93 on wti

now briefly we've got to talk about

china

china look home sales in china continue

to fall ratings are getting yanked on

bonds like crazy i mean there's still

disaster in the chinese property market

it just doesn't get any coverage right

now because everybody's focused on

russia

a lot of and this is crazy a lot of

resignations are happening particularly

amongst auditors

yeah that's not good

we also have these general properties

that stock down 81

after it struggled to repay its debt

china's venico one of the largest

developers says they are at the last

legs of being able to survive now the

good news is china is trying to ease

funding restrictions mortgage rates have

been cut uh this is encouraging some new

and renewed activity but so far we've

got 27

major companies in china that have so

far failed to repay their debts since

2018. the situation doesn't seem to be

getting any better right now and it

comes at the same time as there are more

fears again

that china is cracking down on

specifically textile companies and so if

you we look at the weebs today we can

typically see here uh yeah that's right

you've got alibaba and i believe neo

yeah look at that alibaba and neo

trading near the bottom of our watch

list here baba down about 5.28 neo down

about 6.33 bobo really dancing around

this

112 113 line right here take a look at

some of these other record lows though

here we've got roblox down seven percent

down at a record low 46-13

so far down about seven percent after

they spent about 10 percent of their

market cap

over 1.1 billion dollars

acquiring a banking

software company remember sofi got

approval for their banking charter after

acquiring a bank i want to say earlier

this year it was about march of 2021

so earlier last year rather we're in

2022 now in fact today happy 2 2 2 2 2

day but anyway uh

this uh this banking charter approval

was obviously seen as a a massive

catalyst and an exciting catalyst for

sofi it did briefly lead to a run with

increased volume but as is usual in

today's market convictionless rallies

lead to

sell-offs

down about seven percent after they used

all stock uh to end up purchasing this

software company so no cash just all

stock which is a lot of dilution about

ten percent in terms of dilution

stock down about seven percent so that

remaining three percent essentially

valuing potentially the benefit of sofa

having their own a banking software

company although for 1.1 billion dollars

a lot of folks are scratching their

heads wondering

could you not have written a program for

1.1 billion dollars

if donald trump can do it you could do

it

anyway

robin hood look at this back down

dragging along the bottom here down six

a percent today lemonade also at an

all-time low right now 25

you've got tesla at 8

20.

tesla really dropping intraday here

certainly doesn't help that you've got

the felicity ace still on fire because

of all those car batteries uh in the

atlantic ocean this is a a

ship carrying uh

thousands of vehicles uh including

porsche tycans that caught fire and it's

been on fire for days because

it's become almost impossible to put out

these car battery fires and so that that

certainly isn't helping the ev sector

today loose it also down about two

percent

uh arc down about 1.62

and if we jump on over to the s p 500

just to see its behavior right now we

could see it trending a little bit

closer to that 230 but playing around

the uh sorry the 430 line playing around

the 431 line right now

well folks there you go there's your

update if you are looking for those

morning live streams course member live

streams make sure to check out the

programs on building your wealth link

down below the path to wealth course

just had a massive surge of new lectures

posted and i'm super excited to release

another batch today from lectures that

were filmed yesterday so thanks so much

and we'll see you in the next one

goodbye