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10x EVTOL Stocks | JOBY, ARCH, EVEX, BETA

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FULL TRANSCRIPT

0:00

So now let's analyze the difference

0:01

between Archer Aviation and Joby. Uh

0:05

this is uh Archer's performance. Uh

0:08

since it uh I wonder if it's spacked

0:10

given that it started at $10. I wouldn't

0:13

be surprised if it spacked and it stayed

0:14

at 10 here for a while. As is with most

0:17

stocks that spack, they were down, you

0:19

know, 70 to 80% for a period of time.

0:22

Archer Aviation now trading for just

0:24

above their spa levels at almost $11. If

0:27

you look at uh Joby, you have another

0:29

one that also likely spacked settled out

0:31

over $10 here. Also fell down to

0:34

somewhere in the $3 range and also now

0:36

almost back to $10. So, what can we

0:40

analyze inside of these companies? Well,

0:42

I always like starting with uh the

0:45

fundamentals of the business. And you

0:47

can also get a nice business description

0:50

from these companies in their annual

0:51

reports. It's kind of a little hack that

0:53

I like doing. We grab their annual

0:55

reports and then what you'll find is

0:57

under business description, which is

0:59

usually just a page. They'll tell you

1:01

exactly what they do. So, here's Joies.

1:03

Joby is developing an all-electric

1:05

vertical takeoff and landing EV tall air

1:08

taxi. We intend to operate in cities

1:11

around the world. Our mission is to help

1:13

the world uh connect faster and more

1:15

easily with people and places in a fast,

1:18

quiet, and convenient aerial transport

1:20

service. Okay. One of the things that

1:22

you have to keep in mind with these

1:25

aircraft is that they're noisy. And so

1:28

that's why they're pitching quiet uh in

1:31

their annual report here because they're

1:33

not quiet right now. I mean, even a jet

1:36

engine is really loud obviously, right?

1:38

We don't want jet engines floating

1:40

around low, but helicopters around 1,500

1:42

ft pretty dang loud. these things. I I

1:46

don't know how quiet they could really

1:47

make it because you're breaking the wind

1:49

to create lift essentially. So, the

1:51

noise issue, obviously, they're showing

1:54

this out here in a field, is going to be

1:55

a big issue for air taxis. However, I

1:59

think it's solvable because you can

2:01

create corridors.

2:03

And usually the way you create corridors

2:06

with these things is you just follow

2:07

highways. That's my take. So, I'll give

2:10

an example here. Let's go to Los

2:12

Angeles. Sorry, I don't like LA. If you

2:14

live there, I still love you, but I just

2:15

don't like LA. You know, let's imagine

2:17

for a moment you took off from, I don't

2:20

know, let's pick an airport over here.

2:22

Uh here, let's take Fullerton or

2:24

something like that. I could absolutely

2:27

see a future where a company like Joby

2:30

or Archer or whatever in these taxi

2:32

services is basically able to take off,

2:36

you know, from some facility over here

2:39

or where these planes are parked or

2:40

whatever. It's probably a flight school

2:41

over here or whatever. and they end up

2:44

just following highways, right? Because

2:46

then you're concentrating noise. So, I

2:48

think that's a solvable problem. Uh, and

2:52

then you obviously have, you know, uh,

2:54

parking spots wherever. I mean, the nice

2:56

thing is about being able to fly is you

2:58

don't only have to follow the highway,

3:00

but then you create a corridor where you

3:02

fly maybe across to a different highway,

3:05

uh, you know, and however you go park

3:06

somewhere else here, Compton airport,

3:09

wherever you want to go. So, I think

3:10

it's solvable uh getting this this quiet

3:15

issue dealt with. The Joby EV tall is

3:17

designed to transport a pilot and up to

3:19

four passengers and an expected payload

3:22

of a,000 lb. Now, that's actually pretty

3:24

impressive because that looks like a

3:26

pretty small aircraft, the one we just

3:28

saw in the picture there. I've got about

3:29

500 flight hours as a pilot. And what

3:31

I've noticed in smaller aircraft is

3:34

their payload is really, really low.

3:37

I would say 1,000 pounds of payload.

3:40

Pretty impressive. However, this is

3:43

basically enough for five people, pilot

3:45

and four passengers. You're not going to

3:47

put a lot of baggage in there. In fact,

3:49

a pilot and four passengers assume zero

3:52

bags. If you're going to take a bunch of

3:54

bags, you might just be a pilot and two

3:56

passengers. So, there's a little bit of

3:58

a problem in in payload that you're

4:00

going to run into as well in these. Uh,

4:03

but if you're talking about a few

4:04

business executives and they're just

4:06

taking a briefcase, they got to get to

4:08

downtown LA in and out or whatever, it

4:11

could function. Again, you need those

4:13

corridors where people are going to be

4:14

okay with the noise. According to our

4:16

modeling, more than 90% of urban routes

4:18

in cities such as New York and Los

4:20

Angeles are significantly shorter than

4:22

this. The aircraft is optimized with a

4:24

target of 100 miles. Yeah. Okay. The

4:27

thing is, you need reserves in aircraft.

4:30

So, you're probably not going to want to

4:31

go and it's sort of like drones, okay?

4:34

With a drone, you usually want to land

4:36

when you're at about 20% battery because

4:38

it just the voltage starts dropping and

4:40

you're just going to fall out of the

4:41

sky. So, the reality is you need a

4:44

reserve on top of that. So, you probably

4:47

want to start thinking about landing

4:48

when you're at 50 miles, which means

4:50

realistically you've got about a 50 mile

4:53

charge on this puppy. Not great yet.

4:56

That's one of the other issues is

4:58

batteries are heavy and you I don't

5:00

think have the battery technology yet.

5:02

So it might just be early, you know, to

5:04

get the noise routes to get the payloads

5:08

to be functional, you know, cuz again,

5:11

you like can't get any bags in there if

5:13

you got four passengers. You don't have

5:15

a second pilot worth of redundancy, but

5:17

that could be okay, especially if there

5:20

are a bunch of technological

5:21

redundancies in the actual aircraft

5:23

itself. And so realistically, you've got

5:25

maybe 50 miles of range here, right?

5:28

Okay, cool. So that's our Joby aircraft.

5:30

That's the goal that they have. We

5:32

completed our first international

5:34

exhibit uh flight in at the end of 2024.

5:38

We do not currently intend to sell our

5:40

aircraft to third parties or customers.

5:43

Instead, we plan to manufacture and own

5:45

our own aircraft. Aha. building a

5:48

vertically integrated transportation

5:50

company for government agencies, the Air

5:52

Force, the Department of Defense, you

5:54

know, you could actually potentially

5:55

take people from like Vegas or Henderson

5:59

or wherever and fly them into uh you

6:02

know, Area 51 or whatever and and use

6:04

these as sort of back and forth routes.

6:06

Again though, that 100 mile range really

6:09

makes me nervous because if you have a

6:11

100 mile range and you go fly 50 miles,

6:16

you need to sit and park. Well, now the

6:18

darn thing is parking for 2 hours,

6:20

right? If you do a 25 mile trip, you can

6:23

go there and back, but then again,

6:25

you're down for a few hours. So, you

6:26

just don't have the uptime that like I

6:28

mean, think about like a Southwest

6:30

Airlines and and the whole point of a

6:31

taxi is minimal downtime. It's like you

6:34

park, you grab your passengers, you go

6:36

fly, you come back, you land, you park,

6:39

you fuel it up, and you go again. The

6:41

the downtime is relatively limited. You

6:44

know, even larger commuter aircraft,

6:46

your downtime's what, you know, 45

6:48

minutes or so, maybe an hour. But do you

6:51

really want to minimize that? How long

6:53

is it going to take to charge these

6:54

puppies all the way up to full? Because

6:55

you're not doing the first 50%. you're

6:58

doing the last 50% which charges slower

7:01

than the first 50%. So that's going to

7:04

be something to pay attention to with

7:05

with these models over at Joby and

7:07

Archer. We believe vertically integrate

7:09

and they're going for vertical

7:10

integration. This makes sense. I mean

7:12

this is, you know, a big pitch and it's

7:14

kind of cool if they could pull it off.

7:15

When they pull it off, it would be

7:16

great. We operate a powertrain

7:17

electronics engineering and

7:19

manufacturing facility in San Carlos,

7:20

California. Well, that's kind of cool.

7:22

I'd love to visit that. With local

7:24

support from California, we have begun

7:25

the construction of a new plant. Oh,

7:27

that's cool. We believe California

7:29

operations will be able to support low

7:31

production plans and testing and

7:33

development. I mean, that's kind of

7:35

cool. The NEO of the skies. Yeah, I see

7:37

your comment here. I think that's

7:38

awesome. How do you know the 100 mile

7:39

range is not already counting the

7:41

reserve battery? I suppose I don't. I

7:43

mean, you could be right about that

7:45

because it says the aircraft is

7:47

optimized with a target range of up to

7:48

100 miles. Let me just put it this way.

7:50

I think they're gonna give you the most

7:52

salesy item here. But I appreciate you

7:56

saying that because I don't have that

7:59

answer. Maybe if we look at their pitch

8:02

site on their product, it might say over

8:04

here 200 mile top speed. Yeah, see they

8:08

don't downtown to JFK. I mean, these are

8:11

all popular, but those are already being

8:13

serviced by actual helicopters. That's

8:16

another thing, too, you have to

8:18

remember. Yeah, they don't talk about

8:19

their battery here. These companies are

8:21

also going to compete with helicopter

8:23

operators. So, keep that in mind. Okay,

8:26

so let's look at the financials. So,

8:28

Joby has current, we don't really

8:30

honestly need to look at their revenues

8:32

that much. What we need to look at is

8:34

what's going on over here. Job's current

8:36

assets. We've got 122 million of cash.

8:40

That's that's decent, but you could see

8:42

it's burned down in just the last

8:43

quarter by a lot, actually. Look at

8:45

that. What happened here? get almost $80

8:48

million of burn right here uh in the

8:51

cash. I mean, they could have deployed

8:52

it into another asset, I suppose. Total

8:55

current assets went down. Total assets

8:57

went down. Doesn't look like it went

9:00

into very much in terms of assets. Our

9:03

payables are stable and our total

9:06

liabilities plummeted here. Something

9:08

something got paid out here. Earnout

9:11

shares liability, warrant liability. Oh,

9:14

this is all old spa stuff. When

9:16

basically the stock reaches a certain

9:19

price, they just dilute the stock more

9:21

because like insiders get, you know,

9:23

bonuses or early investors get paid out

9:26

more or whatever. Okay, cool. So, as you

9:29

can see, this is a pre-revenue company.

9:31

Holy smokes, dude. How did we spend $134

9:35

million on R&D? And what are you

9:38

spending GNA money on? $29 million on

9:41

GNA. Well, you're not selling anything.

9:44

So, really, this is $29 million of

9:47

general and administrative. Wow.

9:50

Including some related party purchases.

9:51

Well, those are nominal numbers. That's

9:53

fine. Okay. All right. So, I mean, look,

9:55

we know it's losing money. That's not

9:57

the secret here. Uh the question is, how

10:00

long can they sustain with this cash

10:03

burn? So, their cash flow, I mean, look

10:06

at this plant property equipment 15. We

10:08

have a $125 million cash burn in three

10:11

months. And when I add these two numbers

10:14

together here, so Joby does not have a

10:16

lot of cash and we're we're nowhere

10:20

close to actual operations in my opinion

10:23

at this point. I'm very excited about

10:25

what they can do. I think they can pull

10:27

this off, but they need money. So if

10:30

we're burning 125 miller, we do have

10:32

these short-term investments though.

10:34

That's good. So, we're burning, call it

10:37

135. We've got 812 minus the current

10:40

liabilities. The current liabilities are

10:42

good, only about 50 mil, right? So,

10:44

we're paying our bills as they come in.

10:46

We got 762 million available. Divided by

10:48

135, you got 5.6 quarters, you got about

10:51

a year and a half cash for a startup

10:53

like this. That's probably not highly

10:56

unusual.

10:58

Uh, it's not great. What's the line from

11:01

Chernobyl? Not great, not terrible.

11:06

Not great, not terrible. Let's compare

11:08

that to Archer. Uh, and and I have I

11:11

have no horse in this race race. So, I I

11:15

don't want anybody to think that, you

11:17

know, I have a bias for either of these.

11:18

So, they're doing the same kind of

11:20

pitch, you know, a commuter, which is,

11:23

you know, what Hilos do as well. Okay.

11:26

So, similar pitch, different aircraft.

11:29

Archer announces planned Los Angeles air

11:31

taxi network. That was in August. Oh,

11:35

see this is smart. I like this. Oh my

11:37

gosh, look at this. This almost follows

11:39

the highway the way I was talking about.

11:41

Although I don't know if these are the

11:42

actual flight routes or if these are

11:44

just like sort of hoped passages, but

11:47

this is cool. Now, how far are these?

11:50

Plans to launch network in Los Angeles.

11:52

10 to 20 minute electric flights. That's

11:54

cool. Land at LAX,

11:57

USC,

11:59

various different destinations. Okay,

12:01

that's cool. Los Angeles Rams begin as

12:04

early as 2026.

12:07

Yeah, but what kind of approvals do you

12:09

have to do this? Because I think they're

12:11

just saying we plan to do that or like

12:13

we hope to do that, but do they have

12:16

anything from the government that says

12:18

they care? Well, I guess the University

12:20

of California is engaged to be part of

12:22

the network. I guess a private entity

12:25

like Well, I mean, technically, well,

12:27

yeah, it's a private entity. I guess

12:29

technically they could probably do it on

12:31

their private land. It's like, hey, you

12:33

could land over here. That's kind of

12:35

cool. So, these are designed for back

12:37

and forth flights of 20 to 50 mi with

12:40

minimal charge time in between. So,

12:42

they're kind of trying to address the

12:43

concern that I had. 100x quieter than a

12:46

helicopter at cruising altitudes.

12:49

Really,

12:50

if that's true, that's very impressive

12:53

because helicopters are also quite noisy

12:56

at cruising altitudes, though. So, in

12:58

other words, takeoff and landing might

13:00

be pretty noisy, but then at cruise,

13:02

these puppies might almost just glide.

13:04

Huh, that's interesting. Redundant

13:06

systems, that's fine. Designed to carry

13:08

a pilot up to four passengers and

13:10

carry-on luggage. See how they specify

13:12

specifically carry-on luggage because

13:14

again, they they just don't have the

13:15

payload for this, right? 100x is that

13:18

like 20 dB quite I know, right?

13:21

So, Governor Nuome commented this is

13:23

what Okay, whatever. I don't really care

13:24

what Newsome is talking about. Yeah. So

13:27

I I guess if you make an argument that

13:30

you have a partnership with a private

13:32

entity, this this could function. Okay.

13:35

All right. Fine. So let's look at their

13:37

I mean they're not going to have

13:38

earnings either, but let's see if their

13:41

cash burn is like how different their

13:44

cash burn is. First quarter results. So

13:48

operating. Okay, what do we have here?

13:51

Net loss in the quarter of also about

13:54

$und00 million. We do have a billion

13:56

dollars of cash though. So you have

13:59

Let's see what the cash flow is. Wait,

14:01

why do I see AI here? AI partnership

14:04

with Palunteer. Get out of town, dude.

14:06

Everybody is partnering with Paladier.

14:08

That is the funniest thing ever. That I

14:10

just saw it out of the corner of my eye

14:11

and I'm like, wait.

14:14

Archer has forged a foundational

14:15

partnership with Palanteer to build

14:17

artificial intelligence for the future

14:18

of nextgen aviation technologies. The

14:20

company's plan to include the

14:22

development of next-gen software

14:23

utilizing AI to improve the range. Dude,

14:27

hey, quick reminder. If you want to earn

14:29

a 5% yield plus all of the upside in my

14:33

real estate startup, we are offering a

14:36

nonacredited investor round where we

14:38

will pay you a 5% yield plus you get all

14:42

of the upside in the stock when your

14:44

stock converts in the future. It gives

14:46

you an opportunity to diversify away

14:48

from rich stock market valuations,

14:50

diversify away from most tariff risk,

14:52

diversify away from the craziness of the

14:54

treasuries market, especially with these

14:56

Moody's downgrades. You diversify into

14:58

fixerupper real estate, which is what I

15:01

believe I do best. This is my baby. I

15:04

call it my little Berkshire Hathaway.

15:05

Now, maybe I'm biased, but I've got over

15:07

$5 million of my own money invested into

15:10

this business, and I'm so excited for

15:12

what I think we're going to be able to

15:14

do with this business over not just the

15:16

next years, but the next decades. So, if

15:19

you want to invest in my real estate

15:21

startup, go to househack.com and know

15:23

that I will do everything for this

15:25

business in my power to make sure we can

15:27

do the absolute best that we can. Make

15:30

sure to read the solicitations and

15:31

disclosures on the house hack website

15:34

because there is risk with every

15:36

investment. What? You're using AI to

15:40

improve the range? This is mostly

15:43

mechanical.

15:45

I don't that seems like I mean like

15:48

maybe you could use AI for logistics,

15:51

right? So the way you do that is like

15:53

hey I got I need to go here, here, and

15:55

here. I've got people I got to pick up

15:57

here, here, and here. I've got these

15:59

payloads I've got to move and AI can put

16:01

that data together. That's what I think

16:04

what they mean here. But I don't I don't

16:06

think AI is somehow going to make my

16:08

propellers and my battery more

16:09

efficient. I don't know, maybe I'm

16:11

wrong. I think this is probably more

16:13

just logistics planning, which is

16:15

basically the same thing that you would

16:17

see at um you know, like UPS or

16:20

whatever, right? So, this isn't really

16:21

that big of a deal. Archer plans to

16:24

deliver its midnight aircraft to the

16:26

United Arab Emirates in the coming

16:27

months for planned deployment later this

16:29

year. Okay. Archer recently secured

16:31

design approval for the first hybrid

16:33

helport. Well, I mean that's cool. Abu

16:36

Dhabi. That's cool. Okay. Okay. S.

16:40

They're also out of California. I wonder

16:42

where these are parked. This is just at

16:44

an airport somewhere. I bet you I could

16:46

fly into this airport where these are

16:48

parked and uh and go see them. Just go

16:52

walk over to him. Probably get in

16:54

trouble. So, I'm not going to do it.

16:55

Don't sue me, bro. Don't I have a button

16:57

for that somewhere? I think if I push my

16:59

sound effects, I'm going to break

17:00

something again. I need to fix my little

17:02

soundboard. All right. So, do we have a

17:05

cash flow here? Because I don't actually

17:07

have a full statement. So, let me do

17:09

this. Let's go to because they only gave

17:12

you a Q1 press release. So, we go to the

17:14

SEC filings. We're going to go to a

17:17

quarterly. Oh, there it is. Perfect.

17:20

This is much easier for me to read.

17:23

Okay. And also just to look at their

17:25

difference in business. It should be

17:26

roughly the same. Uh it was a spec. Oh,

17:30

they don't give it in a 10 Q. Of course,

17:31

it's only in the 10K. That's fine. Um so

17:35

what do we have over here? This we have

17:38

$1 billion here. Good. Yeah, we were in

17:42

the 10 Q over here. Okay, perfect. Just

17:44

making sure. Good. So we have a billion

17:46

dollars of cash. Look at this. Their

17:47

cash has actually gone up. How did their

17:49

cash go up by $200 million? Well, let's

17:52

find out. It's over here on the cash

17:54

flow statement. They'll tell you cash

17:57

flows. Here it is. Ah,

18:01

they issued $300 million of shares

18:04

proceeds from registered direct

18:06

offering.

18:07

But when was that? Yeah, just in the

18:09

last three months. Interesting. Email

18:11

them, Kevin. They might do an interview.

18:13

I'm down. I I would I'd be look what's

18:16

kind of weird now is I've never analyzed

18:18

these companies uh like as a pilot. This

18:23

is my first time as a pilot analyzing

18:26

this and I think it's kind of cool

18:28

because my mindset now is coming from

18:30

the angle of okay, how much weight can I

18:33

carry? Uh you know what kind of winds

18:36

can I land in? How much reserve fuel do

18:39

I need? Which in this case is battery.

18:41

you know, like what are what are my

18:42

safety features, right? Like all these

18:44

things matter now and that and you just

18:47

don't really think about those when when

18:49

you're not in that world, which totally

18:50

makes sense. So looking at it now, it's

18:52

kind of exciting. Cool. So net loss 100

18:55

mil. So they raised money. I actually

18:58

think these companies probably won't run

19:01

out of money because there's so much

19:02

hope around them that they could just

19:04

keep doing that. They could keep raising

19:06

money, right? So what are they spending

19:09

money on? Oh, you know what? Let's put

19:11

these side by side. Oh, the Q's are up

19:14

nicely. Well, that's what I thought

19:15

would Oh, and Nebas. Nice.

19:18

I'm just looking at the ones in our

19:20

alpha report this morning in the course

19:22

member live stream. We were talking

19:24

about Nebas and Corewave and and and

19:27

some others and targets and that. And

19:30

so, I'm just seeing the momentum move on

19:31

those. We even talking a little bit

19:32

about AMD, although that was because of

19:34

a course member. So, shout out to them.

19:37

Okay, so this was let's look at the

19:40

expenses here. Who's spending more

19:42

money? Here we go. So R&D and then we'll

19:46

compare it to R&D over here. All right.

19:49

So on the left we have Joby and on the

19:53

right we have Archer. So R&D here we

19:58

spent 103 mil. Over here we spent 134 in

20:02

the quarter and that was R&D. GNA. Both

20:06

of them are pretty up there on GNA. 40

20:09

mil and 29 mil. I'm still a little

20:12

frustrated by that. But Joby actually

20:14

has a bigger burn. It looks Wait, but

20:17

Job's net law or operating loss is

20:20

negative 163. But then we have

20:24

Oh, okay. Well, this is this is uh this

20:27

has to do with warrants and earnout

20:28

shares. Okay, that's not going to be

20:30

ongoing. So, let me just look at the

20:32

operating expenses. loss from operations

20:35

144, loss from operations 163. So Joby

20:38

has a little bit less capital and

20:41

they're burning more money and Archer

20:44

just raised like $300 million on the

20:46

market. So I think the way to look at

20:49

these plays when when you look at both

20:51

of them is they're kind of options on

20:56

the future. like you're not really close

20:59

to these doing anything anytime soon in

21:02

terms of functional revenues. My guess

21:06

is you've got probably, you know, I

21:10

could see test flights in 2026,

21:13

like actual test routes, but those are

21:17

going to be money losing flights. You

21:19

don't have the battery technology yet

21:22

and you really need to figure out how to

21:25

increase the payload so you could take

21:27

more passengers ideally than just four

21:29

people, right? Because if you're going

21:30

to do that flight, it'd be nice to take

21:32

like 12 people, you know, and some

21:34

baggage, right? Fine. But whatever, you

21:37

know, maybe maybe they could charge

21:38

enough. I don't know, four people for

21:40

that kind of flight. It it just seems

21:41

like the revenue like the the cost per

21:44

ticket is going to be so high. I mean,

21:45

think about it this way. If if I took

21:48

that thing off, let's say if I had a

21:50

helicopter, if I went from one part of

21:52

LA to another part of LA, I would

21:54

probably expect to spend 1,500 bucks for

21:57

one person to get from one point in LA

21:59

to another point with a helicopter,

22:01

right? takeoff, land cycles, warranty

22:04

programs on the engine uh for the

22:06

helicopter or engines for a multi-engine

22:09

uh the uh for like a plane uh warranty

22:12

program on just parts and repairs uh

22:15

your landing struts, whatever. And I

22:17

don't know much about helicopters, but

22:19

I'm speculating that you would have to

22:21

spend that sort of money plus the fuel

22:23

obviously and the pilot, right? You got

22:24

to pay for all these things. If you put

22:26

four people into it, well, four people,

22:29

1,500 divided by four people, that's

22:31

$375 a person. That's your break even.

22:34

You got to make a profit on that. Well,

22:36

somebody's not going to spend $500 to

22:39

avoid a 20-minute commute. So, the cost

22:42

to operate these things would be my

22:44

biggest question is like, can I get

22:47

these down to an operation cost of $750

22:50

an hour? Well, let's say I can operate a

22:52

Joby or an Archer at $750 an hour. half

22:55

the cost of helicopter and I could put

22:58

four passengers in it. My break even is

23:01

about $200 a person. Okay. Are people

23:04

going to pay say $300 to get from one

23:08

end of LA to the other? Some people

23:10

will. That's not that bad. Uh you know,

23:14

if you want to forget two hours of

23:16

traffic and you know you're some CEO or

23:19

whatever, you're making plenty of money,

23:21

it's an option. It's interesting but

23:23

then you have to convince people on

23:24

safety. You need the noise routes. So

23:26

point is are these in the future?

23:29

Absolutely. I think there's no doubt

23:31

that there is a future here. I think the

23:33

limitations right now are politics

23:35

around noise and permits payload and

23:38

weight break even costs aren't even that

23:40

matter that much of a matter right now

23:42

because once they start operating the

23:44

stocks will go up and they'll be able to

23:46

raise plenty of money from their stocks.

23:48

Uh that said, you're constantly likely

23:51

going to get diluted. So when you get

23:53

these momentum runs right here, it's not

23:55

actually a surprise to me that after the

23:57

stock ran in November and December, they

24:00

issued a crapload of shares and the

24:02

stock went down because that's what they

24:04

should do. It just gives them more cash

24:06

to survive longer. So, you know, good

24:08

for them. So long-term future, yes,

24:12

between now and then, there are a lot of

24:14

things to look at. battery tech,

24:15

regulation, safety, profitability. So, I

24:20

wouldn't bet against these companies

24:22

because once they figure it out, they'll

24:24

be worth way more than they are today. I

24:26

mean, what do they trade at? I mean, $7

24:28

billion, that's already quite a lot for

24:30

like a money losing idea, right? Six and

24:34

seven billion for money losing idea.

24:36

It's already quite a bit, dude.

24:37

Coreweave keeps going. Let's go. This

24:40

was in my alpha report for trades today.

24:43

Okay. Uh, send Kim Kardashian up there.

24:45

She'll do anything these days, says

24:46

someone.

24:49

Uh, okay. Let's see here. Archer

24:50

Aviation is re I want to see some of

24:52

your comments. Somebody writes, "Archer

24:53

Aviation is recommended by Arc Invest."

24:55

Kathy Wood, I like how you like

24:57

specified like, "Oh, by the way, you

25:00

know, Kathy is ArchInvest."

25:03

Thank you for clarifying that. Somebody

25:05

says FAA can't handle the traffic they

25:07

have now. Might be issues there. Yeah,

25:09

especially through busy areas like LA.

25:11

But that's why I think they'll do

25:12

corridors and and I think they can route

25:15

traffic around specific corridors. So

25:18

I'm less worried about traffic. Although

25:20

I respect the concern because it's a

25:22

disaster if they are on like perfect

25:25

corridors every single time. Might not

25:27

be that big of a deal. Does the physics

25:29

make sense on short distance air travel?

25:32

So much wasted energy. I don't believe

25:33

in flying cars. Well, I mean it's not

25:35

about the physics or the energy. It's

25:37

about time, right? People who don't want

25:41

to sit for traffic in two hours because

25:42

they have an important meeting that's

25:44

going to make them $100,000. They'll pay

25:46

$500 for a ticket to go get there faster

25:49

so they could get to the next meeting.

25:51

Right. It's sort of the nature of the

25:53

economy after all. Right. Let's see

25:55

here. Oh, that's funny. Thank you for

25:57

saying that. Yeah, I see a comment here.

25:59

Uh what was it? Uh where was it? 12248

26:04

AMD resisting to the scent like Kevin's

26:07

alpha report. Uh, thanks Renee for

26:08

saying that. Yeah, if you're not part of

26:10

the alpha report yet, remember you can

26:11

get that at meetc.com.

26:13

Joby has more FAA certifications under

26:16

the new FAA EV tall rules. Hm. Okay.

26:19

Well, let me look at those. FAA EV tall

26:22

rules. Let's see what they came up.

26:25

Advanced air mobility. What is this

26:28

umbrella term for an aircraft that's

26:30

highly automated, electronically

26:31

powered, vertical takeoff and landing,

26:34

air taxis? milestones.

26:37

Oh. Oh, this is to certify the actual

26:40

aircraft to fly. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. That's

26:42

very good. That's very good. So, they

26:45

are they have a a pathway to certify the

26:49

aircraft to fly, which is good because I

26:52

do think we can get air corridors. I

26:54

still am worried about battery range and

26:57

um payload, but that is very

27:00

interesting. Thank you for mentioning

27:01

it. Can you honestly think?

27:04

Oh, Mav Mav, you need a hug. Okay. Wall

27:09

Street article, Wall Street Journal.

27:12

Okay. Rumors circulating. Okay. We'll

27:14

take a look at that in just a moment.

27:15

So, Joby has Toyota as an investor and

27:17

manufacturing partner. So, that I

27:19

actually think is quite valuable. I

27:22

think the Japanese

27:24

industry as as well as the Chinese,

27:26

frankly, are are great partners. And I

27:28

think if you can manufacture these with

27:30

a with an Asian partner, you'll do very

27:32

very well. So I do actually like that

27:34

with Joby on on a Toyota partnership.

27:36

Archer announces partnership with uh

27:39

Anderil to develop hybrid EV tall

27:41

military aircraft raises additional 430

27:44

mill.

27:45

Nice. Yeah. I mean so basically they

27:48

sold stock on the news of this

27:50

partnership. I respect that. I mean

27:53

that's cool. military partnership.

27:56

That's a perfect use for this perfect

27:59

use because you're not you're less

28:01

worried about, you know, downtown LA

28:04

politics and the bull crap of trying to

28:06

have noise corridors. You don't care. A

28:09

military partnership for Archer.

28:12

Very smart. As well as having a

28:14

manufacturing partner. Uh, very, very

28:18

interesting. So, I totally agree with

28:19

that. So, I like that. Thank you for

28:21

bringing that up. You could use drones

28:23

to find wedge deals by taking photos of

28:25

the roofs.

28:27

I mean, yeah, I guess technically.

28:30

Uh, I'm just I want to buy my own Joby

28:33

and my own Archer. I'm going to go fly

28:35

myself around from my backyard. Kind of

28:39

cool. Okay, cool. So, those are my

28:42

thoughts on Joby and Archer. Uh, again,

28:45

I love the direction of where this is

28:46

going. I do think military is the way to

28:48

go. the more of these partnerships, like

28:50

they will be part of the future. It's

28:53

just a time issue. That's it. And how

28:55

much stock do they have to burn in the

28:58

meantime because obviously they're

29:00

losing cash, right? So, your investment

29:02

is kind of like a lifeline to those

29:05

companies to keep them with their R&D

29:07

and manufacturing or whatever, whatever,

29:09

whatever, which is fine. Uh, but just

29:11

know it's it's going to be a while until

29:13

we get to profitability. It's something

29:14

where like Warren Buffett would look and

29:15

say, "Hey, too speculative for me." But

29:17

then again, he'll miss the boat when and

29:20

if they hit and they get their approvals

29:22

and their certifications and their

29:23

profitability and he'll wait until

29:25

they're like dividend cash cows, right?

29:27

But before these are dividend cash cows,

29:30

we're probably looking at like 15 years.

29:31

So, who knows? Could it be a

29:33

generational opportunity? Maybe. But

29:35

another way to look at it too is could

29:37

there be a really big buy the dip

29:39

opportunity in a recession? Probably.

29:43

Because in a recession, people are going

29:44

to have less money to buy these stocks.

29:46

So the stocks plummet and then when the

29:49

stocks plummet and they raise money

29:51

because they have to, they push the

29:53

stock to these, you know, $3 lows, they

29:55

basically become a penny stock, right?

29:57

So those might be these might be the

29:59

opportunities to invest in sort of these

30:01

more speculatives. Just because the

30:03

market is more euphoric now doesn't mean

30:06

that the actual underlying business

30:08

fundamentals have changed at all over

30:10

the last, you know, 6 months. Again, not

30:12

bearish, just it's just going to be a

30:14

time issue. a good append, you know, uh

30:18

a good little addin to our Joby Archer

30:20

video where you've got Beta Beta

30:23

Technologies. We don't have financials

30:25

for for them because they're a private

30:27

company, but basically they're an EV

30:29

tall manufacturer

30:31

uh that

30:33

you know sees the future of these EV

30:35

talls expanding from just being regional

30:38

operations under 200 miles of range now

30:43

to up and down the east coast by the mid

30:45

2030s and across the country by 2040.

30:49

That's because of the limitation as they

30:52

say now being batteries which makes

30:55

sense. Uh the batteries are very very

30:57

heavy and you need a lot of battery to

30:59

get a good distance. So you're doing

31:01

these 15 20 minute flights. Uh and then

31:04

you go land.

31:06

Totally makes sense. Uh and kind of

31:10

exciting. Uh I mean here's just yet

31:12

another competitor compared to Archer

31:14

and Joby. Uh and I think they were said

31:17

they were raising somewhere around uh

31:18

what I think maybe like a $3 billion

31:20

valuation. We we should look really uh

31:22

we'll look in just a moment but uh yeah

31:25

actually we'll just let's see beta

31:27

mobility

31:29

investment

31:31

uh valuation. Let's see what they've

31:32

got. So they raised

31:36

beta technologies not mobility.

31:40

Beta technology raised

31:44

ah series valuation of $3.78 billion

31:47

which is a bit of a discount from Joby

31:50

and Archer which are trading for you

31:51

know5 to6 billion right now. And here's

31:55

a company that's private, but uh you

31:59

know, at least based on what they're

32:00

saying, they minimize their cash burm by

32:03

selling batteries and and parts uh you

32:06

know, components or technologies,

32:07

whereas Joby and Archer don't, you know,

32:10

they're using cash that they're earning

32:12

or basically collecting from

32:14

shareholders and throwing it into uh

32:16

into the business to uh expand these EV

32:19

talls. So, kind of an exciting biz. It's

32:22

also worth noting that Embraier,

32:26

one of the commenters here, brought it

32:28

up, but it's true. And we've we've

32:30

talked about this. I mean, years ago, I

32:32

remember talking about Embraer uh

32:34

getting into these mobility plays as

32:36

well. But here's like an Embraer

32:39

article on uh you know, their

32:42

partnership with Eve Air Mobility. This

32:45

has actually got a ticker Eve X

32:49

uh a global leader in manufacturing and

32:51

providing services for EV tall

32:52

announcing a significant advancement in

32:54

the first flight of its EV tall

32:56

prototype team of engineers blah blah

32:58

blah I think they spun this business off

33:01

Embrier who manufactures actual business

33:03

jets right now uh and regional airliners

33:07

they I'm pretty sure spun this off

33:11

through its relationship with Embry Air

33:12

the third largest aircraft manufacturer

33:14

Eve is able to take advantage of

33:16

Embria's 55 year history in designing

33:18

blah blah blah and manufacturing with

33:20

letters in of intent for 2900 EV talls.

33:23

So this it's turning into quite a you

33:25

know competitive space which makes

33:27

sense. I think that's just sort of the

33:28

direction you're going. But here's

33:30

another option. Here's a EVE is a 1.66

33:34

billion company. big market or a

33:36

partnership also another spa big

33:38

partnership with um Embraier

33:43

little bit of a newer company though and

33:44

smaller see 174 employees beta

33:47

technologies has like 800 employees uh

33:50

and this one founded in 2020 where

33:52

whereas a lot of the others were 2015 to

33:55

2017 so Eve a little bit newer spin-off

33:57

from Embri also spacked uh it'll be

34:01

interesting to see where they go but uh

34:04

I guess you could look at Eve Eve. Uh,

34:07

just do Evall here. And yeah, there we

34:10

go. Eve mobility. And you can see their

34:12

EV tall. So, yeah. Okay. Well, this

34:14

one's green.

34:16

So, no no shortage basically of uh

34:19

competitors here. Oh, look at this. They

34:21

even let you pick a route to fly. Uh,

34:24

okay. Let's do Miami. Oops, that's so

34:28

funky. Miami to South Beach. Oh, that'd

34:31

be nice because that's like a 45minute

34:33

drive. You know, the airport's like way

34:36

inland over in Miami and uh getting to

34:40

South Beach. You basically have to, you

34:41

know, get across the bridge right next

34:43

to downtown Miami and it's a pain in the

34:46

butt. So, I my guess is it's at least a

34:49

40-minute drive depending on traffic.

34:51

But, we're going to look right now.

34:52

Okay. We're going to reveal it together.

34:54

Let's Let's Oh, 20. It's Wow. It's 20 to

34:58

24 minutes. I was wrong. I was wrong.

35:01

Shorter than I thought. But anyway, I

35:03

guess it depends on the time of day

35:05

because I feel like I've taken this

35:06

drive before and I've been stuck in

35:07

traffic and it sucks. So, it could be

35:10

time of day. Right now, it's 8. It's

35:13

11:00 a.m. on a Tuesday. So, I don't

35:17

know. Let's be mean and just go to like

35:20

4

35:22

p.m. Let's see what it says.

35:26

Oh, wow. Yeah. Look at this. Look at

35:28

this. during rush hour. 35 minutes to an

35:31

hour 20. That's what I've been stuck in

35:33

before. So, if you happen to go during a

35:36

crappy time, you're screwed. 30 minutes

35:39

to an hour. That's where my 40 minutes

35:40

is coming from. So, anyway, okay, let's

35:42

fly it with Eve.

35:49

Oh, see, they even use 45 minutes as an

35:52

average drive time. The EV tall, they're

35:54

saying 15 minutes. Now, one thing that I

35:59

think people forget when it comes to

36:01

aviation,

36:04

it's not just the flight time that

36:07

matters. It's also the leadup time.

36:10

Like, you got to drive yourself to the

36:13

airport. You know, by the time you drive

36:15

yourself to the airport, you could have

36:17

already been there,

36:19

right? So, you have to drive yourself to

36:22

the airport. after you drive yourself to

36:24

the airport. I mean, this might be good

36:27

for like arrivals to the airport, right?

36:29

So, maybe you flew into the airport, but

36:31

then you got to walk to wherever the EVE

36:33

terminal is, okay? So, you have to

36:35

adjust for that. Then you have to board

36:37

the plane, check in. You're not going to

36:40

put a lot of baggage in the thing

36:41

because they can't carry baggage really

36:43

yet. And by the time you actually are

36:46

buckled up and able to, you know, start

36:49

taxiing to take off and you're sequenced

36:52

in for traffic, it's going to be another

36:55

20 minutes, 30 minutes. So like when you

36:58

actually add these time frames up, this

37:00

I don't know how desirable of this this

37:03

one is. I don't think this is a good

37:04

example because I don't think you're

37:06

saving that much time. They should they

37:08

should have a better example than this.

37:11

I don't know anything about Sydney,

37:14

but let's see what they're doing here.

37:17

Popping over 50 minutes versus See, this

37:20

is a better example because it shows how

37:22

you have to take this weird roundabout

37:24

way to drive. 6 minutes versus 50. Kind

37:27

of cool. Singapore. Let's try this

37:30

airport. See, I like this. Okay, that's

37:33

a tunnel. Oh, they have a tunnel though.

37:37

45 minutes versus nine. But still, all

37:40

the check-in pro, it's like a novelty,

37:43

right? If they've got a tunnel, may as

37:45

well, if you've got the car, use the

37:46

car.

37:48

I don't know. So far, those aren't very

37:50

exciting. They should really pick better

37:51

routes. You know, something where like

37:54

there's not a bridge to go over water.

37:56

90 minutes versus 19. All right, maybe.

38:02

Anyway, it's coming. It'll be part of

38:05

the future. Which of the companies to

38:07

pick? I don't know because air air

38:10

travel the problem with air travel is

38:11

it's such a commodity.

38:13

Uh it's

38:17

they're probably just money losing

38:18

businesses. So best case scenario, you

38:21

become like a manufacturer and you just

38:24

sell the product to operators because I

38:27

think the business probably just loses a

38:29

bunch of money because, you know, how

38:32

are people going to be motivated to pay

38:35

uh for these,

38:37

you know, flights unless they're

38:38

substantially cheaper because you're not

38:40

saving that much time passengers between

38:43

say uh Newark and JFK or JFK and

38:47

Westchester uh as a this. So, first of

38:50

all, it was four passengers on the

38:51

airplane. Instead of coming out and

38:52

checking it out, why don't you come? You

38:53

should come fly with us. I would love

38:55

to. It's an amazing experience. What

38:56

does it mean? Do I get to wear a

38:58

parachute?

38:59

You don't. You can if you want, but I

39:00

don't think you need one. We We I mean,

39:02

we had years of safety requirements

39:04

testing to bring us to the level to be

39:06

able to carry passengers. This is the

39:08

electric uh aircraft company that just

39:10

did a Hampton's to JFK flight. Point

39:13

that the recurring cost of flight is

39:15

nearly insignificant. As I mentioned

39:17

after the flight, going from East

39:18

Hampton to JFK was about $7 of

39:21

electricity. It's transformative, but

39:23

total cost is what we care about. Low

39:25

cost and it's super safe because the

39:27

safety standard keeps going up. And this

39:29

is going to totally change aerospace.

39:31

Well, let me ask the obvious question

39:33

here. We talk about range anxiety all

39:35

the time when it comes to electric

39:36

vehicles. When we're talking about

39:38

electric aircrafts, I have to imagine uh

39:40

that anxiety is tenfold at least.

39:43

Actually, it's like one

39:45

in aviation. We have compulsory

39:47

requirements to carry extra energy

39:49

that's measured in hours, right?

39:51

Typically 45 minutes plus an alternate.

39:53

So an hour of extra fuel. So wherever

39:55

you're going, you plan for that. You

39:57

charge up appropriate such that when you

39:59

land, you have about an hour extra fuel

40:01

to accommodate any contingencies. Unlike

40:04

driving on the road, it's a very

40:05

controlled environment. So the range

40:07

anxiety is kind of irrelevant in this

40:09

case. Unless you're going to Newark

40:11

because then you could be just circling

40:13

for hours. You could be. But remember,

40:15

you could land at Peterborough, you

40:16

could land out in Essex, you could land

40:18

anywhere if you start to get to a low

40:20

fuel just like you would in a regular

40:22

airplane. So, let me ask about um how

40:26

advanced the technology is. Like, can

40:28

you build a ton of these? Um can you

40:31

start flights soon? Are is charging

40:33

something that takes forever? Um so,

40:35

we've built a charging network all over

40:36

the United States. It's we've covered

40:38

the entire East Coast, gone to the West

40:39

Coast. charging takes about as long as

40:41

it Yeah, Embra Air has um they have

40:44

investments in air taxis. Uh I can't

40:46

remember which brand. We should look it

40:47

up. Length of the flight. So, you can go

40:49

all over the East Coast. We've flown

40:51

across the country and back. We have all

40:53

kinds of flying going on. Um it's uh

40:56

it's it's not a limitation at all. In

40:58

fact, it's a hell of an opportunity for

41:00

our business because we own the charging

41:02

network. So, not only are we the

41:03

aerospace company, we're the fuel

41:05

provider as well. Yeah, fair point

41:06

there. Eve, Eve Air Mobility, you're

41:09

hoping to get FAA certification by 2027.

41:13

There is some skeptism out there that

41:15

it'll happen that quickly. So, what

41:17

gives you the confidence that this could

41:19

be something that happens in the next

41:20

year or two? Yeah, I mean, quietly up in

41:22

Vermont, we have we have led the charge

41:25

beyond all of our public peers on

41:27

certification and entry into service.

41:29

So, we achieved a market survey ticket

41:31

that allowed us to carry the passengers

41:33

last week. That's a step towards

41:35

certification. We have articles like the

41:38

hardest articles, the motors, the

41:39

inverters, the new stuff that are in

41:41

type inspection authorization, which is

41:43

one step away from certification right

41:45

now, which is way ahead of the balance

41:47

of the industry. So, we're not a big

41:49

marketing company. We're a technology

41:50

company. I'm an engineer. I'm a pilot.

41:53

And we've quietly chunked away and done

41:55

the right things for a safe, reliable,

41:57

repeatably produced aircraft. and to the

42:00

facility. We built a a a huge aerospace

42:03

manufacturing facility specific for

42:05

electric aviation in Vermont. And uh

42:08

it's actually almost 200,000 square feet

42:10

and it'll make 300 aircraft a year. Wow.

42:12

You raised I mean what I consider to be

42:14

a ton of money at the end of last year,

42:16

right? Over $300 million in series C. Um

42:20

how quickly do you burn through that?

42:21

When's the next time you're going to

42:22

need financing? Yeah, what's fortunate?

42:24

So we've raised about $1.2 2 billion

42:26

total and we also have an import export

42:28

bank of America. They have 800 employees

42:30

just under $1 and a half billion dollars

42:31

of capital has come into the company.

42:34

However, uniquely in this space, we're

42:36

making money selling chargers, selling

42:37

propulsion, selling batteries. So, our

42:40

cash burn is pretty low right now. We

42:42

likely will do another financing round

42:44

towards the end of the year this year,

42:46

but uh right now we don't need any

42:47

capital. We're very well financed and

42:49

we're paying for a lot of the things we

42:50

do through the sales of our technology.

42:52

Well, with that in mind, let's talk

42:54

about the future of the business. Could

42:56

you imagine going public at any point?

42:58

Would you be open to being sold to maybe

43:01

a Boeing or an Airbus or one of the

43:02

other big uh aircraft makers out there?

43:05

What does the future look like? Please

43:06

tell us now on national television. So,

43:07

so I will certainly So, yes, I can

43:09

imagine the the the course will at some

43:12

point probably intersect with a public

43:14

company. No, the the answer is I have no

43:16

interest in selling the company. This is

43:18

something I've been dreaming about. This

43:19

is my senior thesis in college. Finally

43:21

materializing 20 plus years later doing

43:24

something transformative for good for

43:25

him. That's awesome. And changing the

43:27

way the world will move. I have no

43:29

interest in getting out of it. This is

43:30

awesome. I mean, I get to fly the

43:31

planes. I get to build the planes. I get

43:33

to share it with people that I care

43:35

about. All of our employees fly. This is

43:37

like a dream come true. I have no

43:38

interest in getting out. Dude, I don't

43:40

disagree. And I'm honestly going to try

43:41

and take a weekend uh to drive up and

43:43

see your facility in Vermont. Um one

43:46

better. I'll come down and pick you up

43:48

and then we'll That would be fantastic.

43:50

We live right by the Westchester

43:52

airport. We'll fly the electric plane to

43:53

the electric plane facility. When when

43:55

uh when is this when are electric planes

43:58

going to replace um you know fossil fuel

44:02

uh powered jets. So So it will be

44:06

regional mobility. We'll be less than

44:08

200 miles. Then we'll go to 400 miles by

44:10

the 2030s. Then we'll be up and down the

44:12

east coast by mid 2030s. By 2040, 2045,

44:16

we'll be going across the country in

44:18

electric planes. The energy storage

44:21

keeps going up. Electric aviation is is

44:24

really fit to go to high altitude

44:25

because you don't have to breathe,

44:26

right? So, the aircraft can go pretty

44:28

fast, pretty high. So, the cost of

44:31

operation plummeting, the economies uh

44:34

economy is driving the scalability. This

44:36

is like what we were talking about

44:37

yesterday in the Archer Joby uh

44:39

comparison. more easily suited to

44:41

autonomous flight as well or even you

44:44

know control from. It's a modern

44:46

aircraft that's all fly by wire which

44:47

means it's all computer controlled so

44:49

autonomy is a natural fit for an

44:51

electric airplane. We've flown our

44:53

aircraft numerous times autonomously.

44:55

The military is already buying our

44:57

autonomous aircraft. All right, Kyle. Uh

44:59

I feel like we're just getting started

45:00

but we have to leave it there. Hope to

45:02

have you back. That's awesome. I think

45:03

that's really

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