Warning: Buckle up for this Rug Pull.

you're the Catalyst to watch for the

next about week and a half and there are

some big ones including the numbers

coming out for the Consumer Price Index

which is in just a week from today and

in a week from now we'll also start

getting some of the initial earning sets

most of the juice coming right after

this upcoming week but first let's get

into some catalysts in terms of

expectations so today we'll get some

Factory orders and durable good numbers

we'll also be getting the fomc minutes

those uh will be out at 2 p.m Eastern 11

A.M Pacific that'll be the big Catalyst

for today we'll be looking for what is

the Fed actually think in terms of this

idea of a hawkish skip Jerome Powell

told us he didn't want to call it a skip

or that he shouldn't call it a skip but

what does that mean does it mean that

you've paused or does it mean that there

are maybe many more raid hikes to come

in his recent discussion with Sarah

Sarah Eisen he suggested that

forecasters were expecting potentially

as many as two or more rate hikes coming

of course markets seem to be relatively

calm about the idea that okay we might

get another 25 or 50 BP from the fed or

even a little bit more because frankly

if we look at the past year we had 500

basis points of change in interest rates

going forward we've got maybe another 50

plus or minus so 10 of what we had over

the last year it's kind of like getting

spanked really hard for a year long and

now they're kind of just like you know

softly touching us it's not a big deal

anymore of course then you wonder when

is the lagging impact of those previous

spankings really going to come through

uh tomorrow we will be looking for ADP

employment numbers which is exciting

because it leads into employment Friday

that's a big deal for this week

employment uh numbers tomorrow are

expected at 5 15 a.m We will expect that

private payrolls report it's really a

tool that we use to try to be critical

of the actual official government data

with which is useful we'll also get some

job changing uh payrolls numbers in

terms of how much rate wages are rising

remember we do not want any indicators

of wage price spiral and even though

wages can still grow above three percent

to be consistent with two percent

inflation we want to make sure those

numbers aren't disanchoring so we'll

take a look at that tomorrow we are

expecting 200 23 000 jobs in the ADP

report tomorrow

that is down from the 278 000 jobs in

the prior release so we'll go through

that private payrolls report in detail

initial jobless claims which come out

tomorrow as well are expected at 2 45

with continuing claims that's 1.75

million both of those roughly stable

PMI numbers uh tomorrow at 6 45 a.m

California time expected at 54.1 with

jolt's job openings out tomorrow as well

a lot of catalysts coming up it's not

just those darn minutes but the joltz

number is expecting to finally show some

decline from 10.1 million to 9.9

although frankly that's relatively low

and even at 9.9 with about 6 million and

uh unemployed we're still looking at

about

1.65 job openings

two unemployed individuals it's

shrinking Jerome Powell was really

hoping for this number to get closer to

one to one

but it's been a very very slow Trend to

get job openings to actually close

mostly As businesses continue to either

labor horde or have enough profitability

which enables them to labor horde and

hopefully spend through this recession

or whatever we're going to call it

as far as catalysts I I don't know when

we're going to have the next coupon

expiration I can only imagine many of

you were highly curious as to when that

is going to be but of course the courses

are linked down below

then we've got the two month at payrolls

uh revision that'll come out with jobs

data on a Friday so we'll be looking at

revisions as well as the job numbers so

what kind of job numbers are we

expecting on Friday well in the last

report we had 339 000 jobs in this

upcoming report excuse me in this

upcoming report we're looking for 225

000 so a pretty big drop in that

payrolls number although still vastly

positive I think JP Morgan has an

estimate that maybe maybe just maybe

will actually go negative

in payrolls as soon as September but

frankly if we get a June report at 2 25

it seems wild that in just basically

three months or three more reports July

August and September will actually be

negative but who knows unemployment rate

is expected to drop actually from 3.7 to

3.6 looking for average hourly earnings

coming in at uh 0.3 which is nearly

consistent with the 3.6 percent that you

would like to see uh three point uh or

sorry three percent would be consistent

with two percent inflation

0.3 percent would be consistent with 3.6

at an annualized rate of wage gains so

that would be a little hotter than that

three percent you'd be looking for to

get to two percent CPI but uh getting

closer which is good we really don't

want to see that number this anchor that

wouldn't be great uh and average hourly

earnings year over year expected to be

4.2 percent

uh labor force participation rate

expected to be stable at 62.6 then on

the 10th going into next week we'll have

wholesale inventories and trade sales

data as well as the big one CPI

mark your calendar if you have not yet

for CPI data release on the 12th that'll

be very important July 12th we will have

the CPI month over month expectation set

right now 4.2 percent which is up from

the 0.1 percent of the priority however

core month over month is expected to be

down from the prior read of 0.4 to 0.3

with a listen to this now that we are

comparing year-over-year inflation to

the peak level that we had last year who

here remembers leave a comment who here

remembers to win CPI on the beaches of

Germany well there's a beach of a lake

they killed beaches but anyway it's

doing that streaming from the beach in

uh a beach in Germany last June and we

got the highest report I still remember

uh ever basically in the last 40 years I

still remember making the thumbnail

because the expectations were 8.7

percent

and so I made the thumbnail with a big

nine percent in it and then we ended up

getting like a 9.1 it was insane but

anyway why that's so important is we are

actually a year away from that now which

means we are going to lap that number

which makes our year-over-year

comparison pretty good in fact listen to

this instead of a four percent like we

had in the prior read we are expecting

headline CPI to be just

3.1

that's insane especially because if we

miss that by just two uh uh tenths of a

percent will be a 2.9 percent and

remember inflation expectations are

trending down we're the lowest level in

two years in inflation expectations for

the three years out as we talked about

yesterday and why does that matter

because they can often be

self-fulfilling

if people expect low inflation what

happens they don't tend to go out and

buy buy buy

and it tends to self-fulfill lower price

increases and a more moderated economy

so that CPI report is going to be

delicious next week and it will be what

ends up as the deciding factor for the

June 22nd fomc meeting from the FED

which happens two weeks

after our next CPI data so we've got

still got a little bit of a weight here

for the FED three weeks from today

basically for the FED two weeks or sorry

one week from today for CPI data on the

13th we'll get PPI data uh then we'll

start looking at some import prices and

University of Michigan consumer

sentiment surveys again

but probably what's going to be more

entertaining is the fact that starting

the week of the 14th on Friday the 14th

we are actually starting to get Bank

reports in the mornings we'll be looking

at JP Morgan United Health Citigroup

Wells Fargo all of them reporting in the

AM of Friday the 14th and that is going

to set off the ringing Bell

for earnings season by the way shout out

to gas man and

31095 for remembering yeah that uh that

that June report and uh thank you by the

way for mentioning entertaining

househack video Kevin I'm not so sure

about the dot dot dot ellipse you've got

there but I'll take it thank you anyway

as far as earnings

uh we got a lot of them a lot of them

coming out uh specifically on the 18th

of Tuesday you're going to be looking at

Bank of America Schwab Morgan Stanley

PNC Bank of New York Mellon in the am

then in the afternoon on the 18th this

is close folks this is less than two

weeks away interactive brokers JB Hunt

on that Wednesday the 19th in the

morning you'll have Goldman Sachs

Halliburton U.S Bancorp NASDAQ Ally

Financial First Horizon uh so a lot of

banking stress will be looked at then of

course you'll get the juicy stuff you're

ready for this Netflix United Airlines

IBM Steel Dynamics isn't Tesla I'm

pretty sure Tess Roblox pretty sure

Tesla is on the 19 no sorry Roblox isn't

there pretty sure Tesla is on the 19th

as well but I'm going to confirm that

because I don't see it on this list

anyway am on the 20th you get Johnson

and Johnson Taiwan semiconductors DR

Horton we really want to see what those

home builders are up to

uh let me quickly get it here Tesla

earnings release which I suppose a a

note is a in store for the uh the home

builders the home builders uh have

killed it uh you know I mean prices even

as prices were falling uh mid to late

last year even as prices were falling

for Real Estate the Builder stocks were

doing well and then of course this year

so far price has been falling so you

have been rising so real estate has not

been a short this year given that prices

have been rising and potentially the

catch-up play there in my opinion uh

yeah confirming July 19th for the

earnings announcement after hours but

anyway for Tesla but uh as far as

uh the the home builders possibly the

way to play catch-up on the home

builders if real estate does well if it

does solar we'll see but uh that's the

Left Behind stepchild of the uh stock

market rally over here so we'll pay

attention at uh so the solar industry as

well obviously earnings this uh uh you

know upcoming earnings season could be a

catalyst as well given the lack of sort

of wholesale ordering that really

crushed some of those q1 numbers coming

out of Q4 which is usually where you

have a big solar push so uh those are

some of the big catalysts coming up

obviously regarding Tesla not only are

people going to be looking at vehicular

margin which might actually go negative

for a certain you know the standard

model of the model 3 in China which is

wild which means if we get less orders

in China that could be good

given that China has relatively started

slowing down maybe we have more us and

European sales for that model three

which could boost margin which would be

good obviously the next red flags for

Tesla are going to be negative free cash

flow and uh potential money raise uh But

after those delivery numbers uh over the

weekend there's a there's a lot of

optimism for Tesla

Tesla did end up closing up 6.9 percent

on Monday which is quite remarkable and

uh if you want to be aware of these sort

of quite remarkable uh posts then it's

really important that you follow me on

Twitter at realmeetkevin see I wrote

Tesla literally closes up 6.9 you can't

make this stuff up and there's a

screenshot of it and then sure enough

within two minutes of me posting that

out of nowhere comes Elon Musk liking

the tweet

hahaha so anyway uh that's uh that's

where you've got uh your calendar

shaping up uh this uh you know I I would

say by far the biggest Catalyst out of

all of this is going to be the uh the

CPI read obviously uh the CPI reads a

big deal it's going to dictate exactly

what ends up happening with the fact

that we're going to get another hike or

not if we get a miss here I'm very

excited I I would love to see a Miss I

am nervous that there's a chance we

could end up getting a beat as in like a

higher number although sometimes people

call like a lower number A B but anyway

uh there is a risk of uh of a higher

core thanks to travel

specifically that air travel the hotels

the lodging people have just been

spending I think more than the seasonal

adjustment is going to consider so

there's that risk but you know what

it ain't fun if there's no risk now I

want you to know this when it comes to

AI

time is what's going to make you money

and if you can prove that value to an

employer you'll always be able to be

employed so this is another way of

making sure that you don't get replaced

but

foreign