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Panic: 2007 All Over Again.

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0:00

but yet they continue to go down in an

0:02

environment where the market's

0:04

correcting. That's telling you that the

0:06

market just wants to reduce positioning

0:08

and work off some of that bullish

0:10

sentiment. And I think that's what we

0:12

are faced with right now. We are too

0:14

bullish on risk assets moving into

0:17

>> Well, the market's selling off again

0:19

because of hardware companies yet again.

0:23

It's always the data centers. And yeah,

0:26

we might be at the data centers in space

0:28

moment, but people are now asking if no,

0:31

not the canary in the coal mine is

0:34

dying, but the owl in the data centers

0:37

is dying.

0:40

All right, let's explain. All of this

0:42

has to do with the drama going on with

0:45

Blue Owl. Now, a lot of people say this

0:47

is not fair, this Blue Owl drama.

0:50

Everything is fine. Everything is on

0:53

schedule. There's nothing to see here.

0:55

In fact, that's literally what Oracle is

0:58

arguing. Oracle says, "Hey, don't worry.

1:01

We are in the final stages of our

1:04

Michigan data center. Everything is on

1:07

schedule. We don't need the help of Blue

1:10

Owl Capital. So screw Blue Owl. We're

1:13

good. Please don't sell Oracle stock."

1:17

Okay, so that's the premise. So Oracle

1:20

is freaking out because their stock's

1:21

down like 5% on the day because markets

1:24

are selling off that blue owl doesn't

1:26

want to touch Oracle. Okay, so here's

1:29

Oracle stock down 5% on the day. Zoom

1:31

out on the day chart. It's not a really

1:33

pretty chart. We're basically going full

1:35

circle on this and it's taking Coree

1:38

down. It's taking NBIS down. It's taking

1:40

Iron down. It's taking AMD down. It's

1:42

taking Nvidia down. It's taking the

1:44

whole damn sector down, which naturally

1:46

is taking the Q's down, which is

1:48

unfortunate because the Q's have

1:50

actually been seeing a broadening out.

1:52

You know, seen a recovery in stocks like

1:54

Target, uh, Nphase has even been

1:57

recovering. Trade desk is trying to pop

2:00

a little, you know, like you're seeing

2:01

some movement in in stocks that used to

2:03

be dead, but the weight of these big

2:05

mega caps is pushing everything down.

2:08

Now, why? What could be going on here?

2:11

Well, what's going on here is people

2:13

understand that when liquidity drives up

2:16

dries up, growth rates collapse. And

2:20

that's the concern. Remember this Kevin

2:22

Walsh piece here. April 14th, 2008.

2:26

Kevin Walsh, the financial market

2:29

turmoil in the Federal Reserve. The plot

2:31

thickens. What does he talk about? He

2:33

talks about liquidity. and he literally

2:35

talks about how there was a liquidity

2:37

shock last August and a quote global

2:40

margin call on virtually all positions.

2:44

What he's referring to is when BNP

2:47

Parabus had to cancel valuing funds that

2:51

created a credit shock and a seizing up

2:54

in private credit. Now, why does that

2:56

matter? Why does anybody care? Well, I

2:59

wrote this out for us to make this very

3:00

simple. In 2007, liquidity dries up in

3:04

August of 20 uh 2007. The Federal

3:06

Reserve panics and starts pumping

3:08

liquidity to try to pump up uh these

3:11

private credit markets in early 2008.

3:14

However, the Fed doesn't do enough and

3:16

they end up being too late because

3:17

they're worried about inflation. And as

3:19

a result, the global economy collapses

3:21

through the Great Recession, starting

3:23

with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and

3:25

of course all the warning signs before

3:27

that. Mind you, where we sit today is,

3:30

yeah, liquidity is drying up right now

3:32

and the Fed literally is panicking right

3:35

now. We just printed billions of dollars

3:37

on Tommo and we're printing money for

3:39

Pomo. And so why does this matter? Well,

3:41

it all matters because Oracle's growth

3:43

is projected to be 33% next year, the

3:46

year after that, the year after that,

3:47

and the year after that. An average of

3:49

33% for the next four years on average

3:52

is predicted. But the problem is all of

3:56

that growth is predicated on them being

3:58

able to finance. They just turned

4:01

negative cash flow. We just saw their

4:03

cash flow go to10 billion. And Blue Owl

4:08

has been a reliable financing partner

4:10

for them in the past. Look at this.

4:13

Blue Owl financed a $15 billion data

4:17

center for Oracle in Abalene, Texas, and

4:20

an $18 billion data center uh in New

4:23

Mexico for Oracle. The fact that Blue

4:26

Owl is now bailing on these deals is

4:29

raising a red flag. Why would Blue Owl,

4:33

who makes a living off not only

4:35

financing Oracle's data centers, but

4:37

also financing Meta's data centers, all

4:40

of a sudden bail? And that's why markets

4:42

are skittish today. Now, Blue Owl says,

4:45

"Hey, you know what? Uh, we were going

4:48

to finance money for this 1 gawatt hour

4:51

per hour data center in uh Seline,

4:54

Michigan, but you know, we decided not

4:56

to do that after negotiations stalled.

4:59

You know, the private lenders basically

5:02

like Blue Owl, they're like, you know,

5:03

we're going to need uh some better terms

5:06

because things are getting a little

5:08

spooky out there. You know, Oracle CDS

5:10

has just jumped to 150. We were 128 on

5:14

the 2nd. We were 134 on the 12th. Here

5:18

we are on the 17th. We're 17th. We're at

5:21

150. It's starting to get a little weird

5:23

out there. We keep going in the wrong

5:25

direction on this debt. And so Blue

5:27

Owl's like, "Oh, no, no, no, no. We're

5:29

going to need some some better, you

5:31

know, guarantees that you're not going

5:33

to burn us." And so apparently Blue

5:35

Owl's like, "JK, you know what? we're

5:38

not going to do the $10 billion deal

5:39

with you when they've previously done a

5:42

$15 billion deal and an $18 billion deal

5:44

with Oracle. So basically, a cash well

5:47

that used to be valuable and reliable

5:50

for Oracle is now not valuable or

5:52

reliable. Now, part of that could be

5:55

because Blue Owl is getting sued. Blue

5:57

Owl is getting sued in a class action

5:59

lawsuit. The class action lawsuit, as

6:02

they usually do, claims that Blue Owl is

6:04

experiencing meaningful pressure on its

6:07

assets from business development company

6:09

redemptions. As a result, the company is

6:11

facing undisclosed liquidity issues. You

6:14

can actually see the chart of those

6:16

liquidity issues because if you look at

6:18

some of the Blue Owl funds, you could

6:20

see the price to book value of some of

6:21

these entities is actually trading at 80

6:25

cents on the dollar. So, you know,

6:27

you're taking a 20% loss. This is the

6:29

week chart, by the way. Here's the day

6:30

chart. You're taking a loss on actual

6:33

net asset value on some of these Blue

6:34

Owl funds. So, there could be two things

6:37

at play here. It's possible, and this is

6:39

the jaded version of Kevin. The jaded

6:42

version of Kevin says Blue Owl is in

6:44

they're in a lawsuit for liquidity

6:47

issues and they're giving away money or

6:50

lending money too easily. Their private

6:53

credit books are falling apart. They're

6:56

selling at a discount to NAV. their

6:58

attempt to salvage that collapse by

7:03

buying their own stock

7:06

and then eventually still giving up on

7:09

the merger. Blue Owl calls off merger

7:11

between private credit funds, inflicting

7:13

losses of 20% on investors. Right? This

7:17

is all an attempt by Blue Owl to go,

7:19

"Hey, we're we're going to try to pump

7:20

up our own stock. You know what? We'll

7:22

we'll lend a little less. We got to deal

7:24

with this class action lawsuit. we got

7:26

to deal with investors bailing on us

7:28

now. You know, maybe we'll pull back a

7:30

little bit and try to signal, no, no,

7:32

no, we're we're being safe. We're being

7:34

scrupulous. You know, this is kind of

7:37

like what banks do as well, right? Like

7:39

banks do this as well. They're like,

7:41

okay, guys, they'll have their little

7:42

huddle up meetings and they'll be like,

7:44

"We need to kick out 10 people from the

7:47

bank, like customers. It could be Donald

7:49

Trump or whatever. You know, we've

7:50

always heard about him with debanking."

7:52

And they don't necessarily tell you why

7:55

they kick people out. They just do. And

7:57

the way they do that is they can hide

7:59

under the employee client or attorney

8:02

client privileges at banks. And the

8:04

whole intention is to conceal why they

8:06

actually kick people like Trump out. And

8:08

it can never come up in discovery

8:10

because attorneys are in the compliance

8:12

departments. That's how Trump gets

8:13

screwed out. That's how that information

8:15

never shows up in compliance. But the

8:17

point is the bank turns around and

8:19

brands. Nope. See, we kicked some people

8:21

out. We are being smart and prudent with

8:25

risktaking. That's the same thing as

8:27

Blue Owl in my opinion. I think that

8:30

Blue Owl is bailing on this Michigan

8:34

data center because Blue Owl is trying

8:36

to say, "Hey guys, hey, you know what?

8:38

No, no, no. Too much risk at Oracle.

8:41

We're going to be prudent and we're not

8:43

going to actually lend to Oracle. even

8:45

though we've already lent them 15

8:47

billion and 18 billion, we're just not

8:49

going to lend to them again. That's the

8:52

red flag because now people wonder, well

8:55

crap, if Oracle has negative free cash

8:58

flow and they rely on debt to keep

9:01

expanding, well, they look cheap based

9:03

on these growth rates, but wait a

9:05

minute, if they don't get their

9:06

financing, their growth collapses. This

9:10

is really bad, right? Well, let's see

9:12

what their buddy Cororeweave is saying.

9:15

Because remember, we already talked

9:16

about how Oracle is saying, "Hey guys,

9:18

uh why don't you just bring your own

9:20

chips to our data centers? We're kind of

9:22

running out of money to finance this

9:24

all. Please bring your own chips." It's

9:28

crazy. It's bad, right? For some

9:30

transparency, by the way, just on my

9:32

positioning, uh by the way, we have that

9:35

we did like a coupon for two hours, a

9:37

special one called Ton W Tony because of

9:40

Tony in the live stream. Thank shout out

9:42

to Tony in the live stream. But just a

9:43

little bit of transparency here just on

9:45

my positioning. I want to show you

9:46

Coreweave. So uh and that'll work on the

9:48

reinvest AI at househack.com and uh the

9:51

meet Kevin membership the alpha report.

9:53

But anyway, uh some transparency on

9:55

Alpha this morning. Uh I've been talking

9:57

about weakness and hardware for a while

9:59

and I haven't said this publicly yet,

10:01

but I sold about $2.5 million of Nvidia

10:04

uh between 180 to 205. So some of my

10:07

sales were at 205, some were at 200,

10:09

some were at 195, some were at 190, some

10:10

were at 185, some were at 180. Uh, and I

10:13

sold about $2.5 million of Nvidia. So I

10:15

just like I'm just making that public

10:16

now. And this has been known to course

10:18

members for, you know, over a month now.

10:20

Uh, that, you know, I've started selling

10:22

my Nvidia. I'm I'm not exposed to these

10:24

data center plays. I don't have any

10:25

shorts in these plays. So I just want to

10:27

be clear about that. But I've also been

10:29

saying that this hardware risk is a

10:31

problem because it's a big it's a big

10:33

part of the cues. Now, I was hoping

10:35

because of the 607 bounce yesterday that

10:38

we would actually continue to bounce

10:40

slowly on the cues, but it's actually

10:42

bad because we just lost 607. I hope we

10:46

can regain 607, but the weight of what's

10:49

going on at Oracle, Coreweave, NBIS,

10:52

Iron, AMD, and Nvidia is very heavy.

10:55

Like, this is heavy pain. We actually

10:58

don't have a lot of bad catalyst between

11:00

now and January 9th. It's just the data

11:03

center stuff. That's why paying

11:05

attention to this data center stuff is

11:07

really important. Look, by the way, at

11:09

what gold and silver are telling you.

11:11

Gold and silver spiked when we had the

11:13

private credit panic in 2007 over here

11:16

and then spiked when we had QE. And look

11:19

what we have now. This should tell you

11:21

about the private credit plummet

11:25

or or well the risk that we're seeing in

11:27

private credit, right? because gold is

11:29

skyrocketing in part as a proxy to

11:33

private credit risks.

11:36

Keep that in mind. Now, something to

11:39

watch. Go to Coreweave's

11:42

investor relations docs. You go to

11:44

Core's investor relations docs, you're

11:47

going to see a few things. So, let's

11:49

start at the top. So, here's their last

11:51

earnings call. And what does Coreweave

11:53

tell you? Who's another, you know,

11:54

financing developer? First, they're

11:56

like, "Hey guys, don't worry. Our debt

11:58

doesn't mature until 2028. Keep in mind

12:01

2028 isn't that long away for long-term

12:05

financing. This is not like 30-year

12:07

fixed rate financing, right?" And then

12:10

they're like, "Guys, don't worry. These

12:11

delays in data centers are temporary."

12:15

Keep this in mind. These delays in data

12:17

centers are problematic. Not just

12:20

because they slow down financing, but

12:23

you're also in part getting delayed

12:25

because of stuff like this. Look at

12:27

this. Detroit Metro Times residents

12:30

raise alarms over environmental risks

12:34

tied to massive data center in Seline

12:38

Township.

12:40

Right? And so what you see is state

12:42

regulators are facing increasing

12:44

pressure to slow down a 7 billion $2.2 2

12:47

million square foot data center proposed

12:50

for rural Seline Township

12:53

where residents and environmental groups

12:55

warned the project would destroy the

12:57

wetlands. And then of course they get

12:58

into talking about energy as well,

13:00

right? Like energy slowdowns and stuff.

13:02

Oracle like coreweave is also

13:04

complaining about its data center

13:05

slowdown because I guess they couldn't

13:07

pour concrete cuz oh my gosh it rains in

13:09

Texas. Imagine that. But like the fact

13:11

that we're getting so granually worried

13:15

about

13:16

uh frankly

13:18

not being able to pour concrete for our

13:21

data centers causing delays. The fact

13:23

that that is making news is a sign that

13:26

this financing for these companies is

13:28

really sensitive. And so of course in

13:30

their earnings calls they're like, "Oh,

13:31

don't worry. These delays are just

13:33

temporary. Everything is fine, guys.

13:36

Everything is fine." So if I scroll down

13:39

a little bit more, what do I see over

13:41

here? You see this Nvidia contract in

13:44

our revenue backlog. Okay, so Nvidia is

13:47

providing financing by underwriting some

13:51

of the computing infrastructure. Okay,

13:53

we already knew that Nvidia backs

13:55

Cororeweave. Nvidia has a 7% stake in

13:57

Coreweave. But what here's what's more

14:00

important. Look at this. How do you

14:03

think about your path going forward

14:05

between the different ways of funding

14:07

your business? It's all about funding

14:09

your business, right? And I always say

14:11

you should think of a red flag when you

14:14

hear things like, "What about creative

14:17

or innovative financing, Kevin?" Like

14:19

when I hear people do these deals in

14:21

real estate, you know, we don't have

14:22

creative financing for our real estate.

14:24

We have no bank debt for our real

14:25

estate. We don't have any debt on our on

14:26

our real estate. When I hear creative or

14:29

innovative financing, I think very high

14:33

risk financing shouldn't require

14:36

innovation. If you had a 30-year fixed

14:38

rate mortgage on data centers, would you

14:40

need to innovate financing? No. You'd be

14:43

happy. Instead, what do you have? You

14:46

have the following. Thank you. Here's

14:48

the CEO. Okay, Mike. So, look, we've

14:52

driven innovation on the technology

14:54

side. We've driven innovation on the

14:57

financing side, right? Ho ho ho. The way

15:01

I look at this is well, we will look at

15:04

the full suite of potential ways

15:06

financing uh of financing and expanding

15:10

our footprint and we will choose

15:12

whatever is the most coste effective

15:16

way of increasing our scale and serving

15:19

our clients. So, uh, if we need to start

15:22

leasing instead of building data centers

15:24

because we don't have the financing

15:26

capabilities, well, then that's the path

15:29

we'll go with.

15:31

But we've seen a lot of different

15:33

structures. We've created a lot of

15:36

different structures that have given us

15:37

access to capital over the last 3 years.

15:40

And we believe we're going to explore

15:42

the full suite. We're going to explore

15:45

the space fully with more cowbell. and

15:49

we look forward to uh those deals. You

15:52

know,

15:53

everything is fine. We don't deal do

15:56

deals unless this financing is already

15:58

spoken for. So, uh everything is fine.

16:06

Yeah. That's that's why. Okay. Why

16:10

folks? It's because that's why

16:12

>> that's why people are nervous that when

16:15

Blue Owl bails on financing that

16:19

everything starts looking a lot less

16:21

stable. You know, I tweeted uh a

16:24

response to this. It's no surprise CDS

16:26

are going up as well. I um I quote

16:29

tweeted uh Bloomberg and uh and I wrote

16:32

unpopular opinion. Open AI is running on

16:37

fumes and will promise to use anyone's

16:40

chips in return for an investment. I

16:43

hope I'm wrong. Sam Olman has the power

16:47

to single-handedly push us into

16:49

recession. And then of course there were

16:51

some additional comments about like,

16:52

hey, why doesn't OpenAI scale back on

16:54

like some of their costs by cutting back

16:56

on free user uh exposure? And I'm like,

17:00

the problem if you do that is that if

17:03

you cut back on on your expenses because

17:05

of uh uh you know data center issues or

17:08

whatever, then new user growth tanks and

17:11

then new investments would vanish. Keep

17:14

in mind that Oracle right now or uh Open

17:16

AI like what we quote tweeted here,

17:19

OpenAI is in discussions to raise $10

17:21

billion of investments from Amazon and

17:23

use the online retailers AI chips. Yeah.

17:26

because they need to. They need to take

17:28

money anywhere they can and they're

17:29

willing to make any promises they need

17:31

to. Waller this morning said, "Thank

17:34

goodness we're hearing Waller and Trump

17:35

talking. Waller is a way better choice,

17:38

but we're hearing Waller talk about the

17:40

labor market being very soft and that

17:42

rates are potentially still 1% above

17:46

neutral. That's a big problem. That

17:49

means we have a lot more rate cuts to

17:51

do. That Waller is legitimately fearful

17:53

about the labor market." Wells Fargo,

17:56

anybody but JP Morgan. Wells Fargo is uh

18:00

uh suggesting the following. Look at

18:01

this. Wells Fargo says, "The last labor

18:04

market that we saw indicates the labor

18:07

market is still struggling to maintain

18:09

its footing. We just saw the worst

18:11

October drop in un in employment since

18:14

2020. And the labor market is only up6%

18:18

from last November driven by healthcare

18:21

and social assistance.

18:23

This is scary. This is a really big

18:25

problem, you know, and this is why like

18:28

I made a I made a call this morning and

18:30

I'm not trying to frustrate people on

18:31

this and yeah, I did just put the

18:33

reinvest banner up, but I made a call

18:35

this morning in the alpha report when

18:36

Tesla was, you know, 490 or whatever it

18:39

was over here. I made a call this

18:40

morning in the alpha report and I said

18:43

it is time to be prudent on Tesla. Like

18:46

I'm gonna be very transparent about

18:47

this. I said that in 2011, I wish

18:51

somebody would have grabbed me by the

18:52

shoulders and said, "Kevin, it's at

18:54

record highs. You have trash for

18:57

catalyst ahead of you. The market is at

18:59

a precarious point. I wish somebody

19:01

would have shaken me and said, "This is

19:04

a great time to sell some calls or take

19:07

some profits." This morning in the

19:09

course member alpha report

19:12

you I we talked about selling calls and

19:14

how if you sold what was it like April

19:16

or May calls you could make like you

19:18

could literally be selling Tesla shares

19:20

effectively with a premium you're

19:21

getting for like $550

19:25

because you're getting paid like $60 on

19:27

some of these sell calls. You know

19:30

obviously if you sell calls the risk is

19:32

that the stock declines even more than

19:33

that and that's of course why you know

19:35

the sell call premiums are so high. the

19:37

sell call premiums are very high and

19:39

volatility is not even high on Tesla

19:40

right now. The 5day and 10day moving

19:42

average for volatility on Tesla is

19:43

actually below average. But anyway, I'm

19:46

like please like diversify. And so yeah,

19:49

I mean obviously I'm a little biased.

19:51

This is where I get biased. I'm biased

19:53

and I think that a great way to

19:54

diversify right now is investing in

19:57

either like take from some of these

19:59

individual stocks, have some money in

20:01

cash, pay off debt, or shameless plug,

20:05

go invest in something like house hack,

20:08

you know, no bank debt. It's literally

20:10

backed by real estate. Did you see the

20:12

Michael Bur piece on real estate? Let me

20:14

pull up the Michael Bur piece on real

20:16

estate. Michael Bur just talked about

20:18

usually bad things come to the stock

20:20

market when you have uh household wealth

20:25

lower or real estate as a percentage of

20:27

net worth lower than equities as a

20:29

percentage of net worth. The last time

20:31

that happened was in 1998 and then it

20:33

happened in the 60s both of the times

20:35

right before bigly recessions. Michael

20:37

Bur was talking about that and so then

20:40

real estate normalizes and becomes a

20:41

greater part of people's net worth. I

20:43

personally think that aligns almost

20:45

perfectly with diversifying into a real

20:47

estate company. On top of that,

20:49

obviously, we have our real estate AI,

20:51

which you could join if you want. We

20:53

have our release schedule of what our AI

20:54

is and everything at houseack.com or

20:56

reinvest.co. But yeah, I mean, if you

20:58

click invest in the company, you can

21:00

invest. You get 5% as a yield paid

21:03

through conversion plus all of the

21:05

upside in the stock. It's real estate

21:07

backed. You invest with a credit card, a

21:09

wire, no fees if you want. I I don't

21:11

obviously recommend you go in debt. read

21:13

the offering circular. There's risk with

21:14

every investment. But I think now is a

21:16

great time to look and go, "Yeah, dude.

21:18

There are ser Well, people are

21:20

apparently taking the advice. I got a

21:21

giant red candlestick there on Tesla."

21:23

But no, I think it's a fantastic time to

21:25

look and say, you know, this is why I

21:27

made my video yesterday uh about Tesla

21:30

like like Tesla's due for an imminent

21:32

collapse I wrote yesterday. And it's not

21:34

because I bearish Tesla. I love Tesla.

21:36

But it's it's just I want to send a

21:37

message that I wish in 2021 somebody did

21:40

that for me and said like forget house

21:42

sack among go like just diversify just

21:46

pay off some debt just be a little bit

21:48

more insulated for a crash that's it uh

21:52

anyway okay so uh let's go back to this

21:55

Oracle piece for a moment let me get rid

21:56

of this uh reinvest banner so if I go

21:58

back over here what do we have here the

22:01

AI market is propped up on growth

22:03

estimates that rely on debt at

22:06

expanding. You mean 2021? What did I

22:07

say? Yeah, I meant 2021. 20. Yeah. Sorry

22:11

if I said 2011. You know what I mean?

22:12

It's 2021. You I'm not going to go back

22:15

and fix that in editing. You know what I

22:18

mean?

22:20

Uh this AI market is propped up on

22:23

growth estimates that rely on debt

22:24

expanding. Right now, we are seeing debt

22:26

contract, right? That's the problem.

22:29

That's why and and you know we the

22:32

reason we did the W Tom thing is because

22:35

like this isn't to dump on it's not Tom

22:38

it's Tony it's it's win Tony was what it

22:40

was that's what we did W Tony we made a

22:43

special coupon for Tony because Tony

22:46

said hey you know if somebody sells like

22:48

somebody gets that money right like the

22:50

money goes somewhere and I make the

22:52

argument that no it evaporates and this

22:54

is why down markets are so bad because

22:56

at the same time markets can go up and

22:59

we generate wealth out of thin air. The

23:02

same thing happens on the downside and

23:04

people forget this. So we made an

23:05

example here. Let's say you have a

23:07

million dollars of Tesla stock at 480 or

23:09

490 or whatever and then there's some

23:11

kind of shock. Leman Brothers bank

23:13

failure liberation whatever. Now all of

23:15

a sudden there are no buyers until 350

23:18

and then one jerkoff sells Tesla at 350

23:22

and one jerkoff buys Tesla at 350. Now,

23:25

all of a sudden, the last reported trade

23:27

is $350.

23:29

You just instantaneously on your

23:32

million-doll position at Tesla lost 27%

23:35

in net worth.

23:38

So, the point is in down markets, money

23:41

evaporates. And if right now we're in a

23:43

market that is propped up by debt and

23:46

the debt is starting to tighten, that's

23:49

bad. Why is the debt tightening? One of

23:52

the reasons people are worried about

23:54

regulation. Another reason people are

23:57

worried about lawsuits. You know, we

23:59

just saw uh that uh uh Blue Owl is

24:02

getting sued. But on top of that, look

24:05

at this first brand's collapse ripples

24:08

through private development

24:09

corporations. They're all shaking in

24:11

their boots because of this. On top of

24:13

that, you now got the regulators after

24:15

them. Financial Times US prosecutors

24:18

charged triolor executives over

24:21

systematic fraud. Both first brand CEO

24:25

is probably a fraud. Now they're

24:27

charging thericolor folks with fraud.

24:29

Which means everyone like Jeff who

24:32

lended to them. All of the lenders are

24:34

now under the radar of the SEC

24:37

investigating them because they're like

24:39

why are you lending to these people? I

24:41

kid you not. Look, Reuters. US SEC. Oh,

24:47

freaking Reuters. Uh, US SEC

24:50

investigates Jeffre over first Brand CL.

24:53

That's how Oh, here I meant to put it

24:55

up. That's how credit starts tightening.

24:59

People get nervous about regulation.

25:01

They get nervous about lawsuits. They

25:04

get nervous about all the crap. The

25:05

Economist makes it pretty clear. The

25:08

reason to fear a bare market is that

25:10

American households have more to lose

25:12

than ever before. Stock ownership

25:14

accounts for 30% of their total assets.

25:16

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not trying

25:18

to say I'm a like a mega bear. You know,

25:21

we made this bear bull chart in the

25:23

course member live streams, by the way,

25:25

just so we could kind of track where I

25:27

stand with the um you know, bear bull

25:30

bullishness or or whatever, right? Uh,

25:33

and so if I go from,

25:36

oh, where is it? Uh, you know what?

25:39

Here, got it up. If we go over here to

25:41

the bare bull scale, I actually make my

25:43

notes as to where I am on the bare bull

25:45

scale. And I'm still sitting mid-range.

25:48

You know, I put my notes over here

25:50

about, you know, what's bearish or

25:51

what's bullish or why I'm revising. You

25:53

can see I've been mid-range. You know, I

25:56

actually went really bullish right here

25:57

on November 19th. And that's also when I

26:01

made a video on the channel called buy.

26:03

And the market from November 19th

26:06

through like December 10th, which is

26:08

what we called, was like straight up,

26:11

right? And but then of course people

26:12

like, "But your titles are

26:13

flip-flopping." It's like, "No, man.

26:14

Like I'm I literally break down exactly

26:16

what I'm looking at every single day."

26:18

And now now we're tracking it, too. So

26:20

you can see it's actually pretty stable.

26:22

Uh, the reason I'm bringing all this up

26:24

is because this the problem is people

26:27

are asking me, Kevin, Oracle's peg is so

26:30

low. Isn't this a buy the dip

26:32

opportunity? And the question is, it's

26:35

only a buy the dip opportunity if you

26:37

believe they can achieve their growth

26:39

expectations. If financing stops, the

26:42

growth will plummet. So, you have to

26:44

realize some companies are exposed to

26:46

requiring more financing to grow. A

26:50

company that sells an AI product or a

26:52

SAS product doesn't rely on financing,

26:55

doesn't rely on on, you know, selling

26:58

stock or raising money because the cash

27:00

flows are so high. Like our margins are

27:03

huge from from the AI that we sell.

27:05

Doesn't have to be us, could be any AI

27:07

play, but you know, if you're if you're

27:09

SoFi and you have to issue shares to

27:12

make loans, that's tough in a down

27:15

market. If you're Oracle and you have to

27:16

rely on financing, uh, you know, that's

27:20

tough in a down market because you're

27:21

negative free cash flow. That's all.

27:24

It's it's all just designed to be an

27:26

education around in a down market,

27:28

private credit compresses. And when

27:30

private credit compresses, valuations

27:32

that look cheap might not actually be

27:34

because then their PEG ratios skyrocket

27:36

and so you actually end up buying

27:38

something very expensive. So that's

27:40

where I personally I'd love and I have a

27:43

little bit of exposure to Meta, so I

27:44

just want to be clear about that. It's

27:45

not a lot, but I have a little bit of

27:46

exposure to Meta. It's one of the

27:47

reasons I like Meta. Not saying they

27:49

won't go down if everything goes down,

27:51

but one of the reasons I like Meta or

27:52

even Netflix. Like I think the Netflix

27:54

selloff is a steal. Like I think that's

27:55

a buy. Again, I'm not trying to like,

27:57

oh, you need to only buy my stuff. Like

27:59

I give you other opinions, too. Like I

28:01

think Netflix is a steal because they

28:03

don't rely on issuing stock to finance

28:06

their business. Now, in fairness, they

28:08

are taking on debt to do the Warner

28:09

Brothers deal, which I think they're

28:10

going to get. The Kushers have backed

28:12

out. Paramount's going to get rejected.

28:13

Warner Brothers is going to push to to

28:15

reject the Paramount deal. So, I think

28:17

this like Netflix is going to be a

28:19

behemoth. They're not relying on issuing

28:21

stalker debt to keep going. Uh, the

28:24

acquisition does have debt though, so

28:25

there's an asterisk there. But broadly,

28:27

if you look at the financials of

28:28

Netflix, outside of the acquisition,

28:31

they don't need to do take on data or

28:32

financing. They buy back stock. The same

28:34

is true of Meta. You know, Meta, what I

28:37

love about Meta is that Meta actually

28:39

went to Blue Owl and got $27 billion of

28:42

data center compute with the rights to

28:44

cancel at certain intervals. I think

28:46

it's every four years. And Meta's not

28:48

going to hold the data center back. Blue

28:50

Owl's investors are, which is exactly

28:52

why we go full circle to the Blue Owl

28:55

Development Corporation selling for, in

28:57

this case, this one's selling for 87

29:00

cents on the dollar. Blue Hour

29:01

technology is selling for Blue Owl

29:03

Technology is selling for 20 cents on

29:04

the dollar and the performance hasn't

29:06

been sorry 80 cents on the dollar 20%

29:08

discount. Uh and the performance of

29:09

these hasn't been that great because

29:11

people are nervous about private cut. So

29:15

there you go. That's that's like I think

29:17

an exhaustive breakdown of what's going

29:19

on here. Somebody says Sam Bankass

29:22

freed. Yeah. I mean like you're relying

29:25

on continued capital inflows in his case

29:28

to fund his fraud, right?

29:33

Uh let's see. You know, the judge

29:35

actually ruled in that Sam Bankman Freed

29:37

situation. The judge issued a ruling and

29:39

said that people could not have known

29:43

that they were a fraud. They were so

29:46

secretly fraudulent that nobody could

29:48

have known. That was very interesting. I

29:49

saw that. Somebody says, "Will House

29:50

hack pay dividends when it goes public?"

29:52

I don't know. Like I think sometimes

29:55

people like people asked me these

29:56

questions. They're like, "Oh, well, like

29:57

what are you gonna do in four years?" I

29:59

don't know. Like somebody asked me

30:00

earlier like that's actually why I wrote

30:02

this down. Somebody asked me earlier,

30:03

"Hey, Kevin, are you guys going to

30:05

finance if if there's a crash and rates

30:06

go to zero?" Maybe. But here's the

30:09

problem. You only want to finance this.

30:11

Write this down. You know, if you if you

30:13

don't watch another video from me and

30:14

you're like, "I'm done with Kevin.

30:16

Unsub, dislike." Fine. I still love you,

30:19

but please take this with you. Okay?

30:21

Take this lesson with you. Debt is

30:23

great. When the Fed goes to zerp. Okay.

30:27

Oh, that's not that's not a good color.

30:29

Uh, when the Fed goes to Zerp, debt is

30:32

great and there's inflation. So, you

30:35

need ZERP and inflation because

30:37

inflation makes your debt cheaper to pay

30:39

off. So, you want ZERP and inflation.

30:42

However, if we're at ZERP and deflation,

30:46

you don't want debt. You don't want to

30:48

make these promises. That's crazy. You

30:52

should never make promises like that. 1K

30:55

in house hack or 1K in Reinvest. I mean,

30:57

they're the same company. Okay, I'm just

30:59

gonna be transparent about this. The

31:01

reason I like reinvest for a few

31:03

reasons. Okay, like one, Reinvest, if

31:06

you write it out, it kind of stands for

31:08

like real estate invest, right? But in

31:11

the future, there are a few things we

31:13

want to do with Reinvest. not just the

31:15

AI, but in the future, you know, in the

31:17

long-term future, what we're kind of

31:19

thinking about doing is enabling people

31:22

uh to reinvest in real estate through

31:25

stable coins by basically, you know, put

31:28

put real estate uh on blockchain, but

31:30

not just real estate, certain real

31:32

estate, also loans, you know, no

31:35

guarantees. This is all in the future.

31:36

Also loans, right? So if you use our AI,

31:41

you ideally uh in the future swipe up

31:44

and get a loan uh on chain instantly uh

31:49

through the reinvest app and then then

31:52

if you want to, you know, reinvest your

31:54

profits or whatever, you could kind of

31:56

it's it's you can do that all through

31:57

the app. Like this is an ecosystem that

31:59

we're trying to build. We're really

32:01

really early days on this. So none of

32:02

this is obviously guaranteed. It's just,

32:04

you know, but that's that's why what

32:07

people always ask, Kevin, why why the

32:08

it's like, okay, well, cuz I think it

32:11

flows with all of that, you know, if you

32:13

open up the Meet Kevin app right now, it

32:15

actually when it loads, it says reinvest

32:17

with Meet Kevin. I think it's kind of

32:19

cool. Uh, so anyway, uh, all right,

32:22

good. So, good luck out there. I love

32:24

you all. Stay safe. I'mma go. But before

32:28

I go,

32:30

thank you so much for being a subscriber

32:32

of the channel. Love having you here and

32:36

we'll see you in the next one.

32:43

>> Why not advertise these things that you

32:44

told us here? I feel like nobody else

32:46

knows about this.

32:47

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

32:48

see how it goes.

32:49

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

32:50

much. People love you. People look up to

32:52

you.

32:52

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and

32:55

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

32:56

get your take.

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