The *BULL TRAP* | MAJOR WARNING

Will the Kevin Hasset rally continue or

are we going to tank? Uh, in this I'm

going to give my prediction on time

frames and dates that you want to pay

attention to, especially if you think we

can get a bullish all-time high. I'm

going to point out exactly when I think

that could happen. We're going to go

through the catalyst. But first, what

actually kept the market booming this

morning or got us to boom this morning?

A couple things. Number one, we just had

the best unemployment weekly claims

numbers since April, which is bullish,

but that's also a really lagging

indicator. So, it's really more of like

a short-term bullish element. Second, we

got Kevin Hasset yesterday. He's pretty

much going to be the tool that right now

Trump is using to pump up the stock

market. It's sort of like the plunge

protection team is back. Oh, three weeks

of a stock market selloff. All right,

release some good news, Kevin Hassid.

And then immediately it turns into, oh

well, everybody's going to cut rates. I

mean, everybody wants rates to come

down, and people naturally see rates

coming down as being bullish. I mean,

frankly, the Wall Street Journal has

this large piece about the Fed's tool

for calming short-term funding markets.

Part of that is because we're starting

to see some of that repo stress again.

You saw that not just today up at 4

billion, uh, but also yesterday at 2.75

billion. Those are just on treasuries.

7.8 billion and 10 billion on MBS's. So

you could see a little bit of a pop off

on the right over here on repo. But

people think this is going to relax come

December 1st. So even though this could

be a little bearish, people think that

bearishness will go away soon. Uh and

really the bottom line that people think

is actually really epitomized by one of

these top comments in this Wall Street

Journal article, which is this guy uh

right here. Steven writes, "The upshot

of all of this new liquidity we could

get December 1st as the Fed stops

vacuuming up money from the economy

because they're going to stop

quantitative tightening is potentially

more inflation. But if not, then at the

consumer level with assets like real

estate stocks and AI investments, in

other words, stons up, real estate up

because rates down and more liquidity."

I think that's a really good summary of

what people think about December 1st

coming up and Kevin Hasset. So, you have

to think we we have some really good

>> bullish catalyst.

>> Yeah, bullish catalyst right now and we

don't really have a lot of bearish

catalyst. Look, here's the menu of them.

Okay, now uh keep in mind that while we

have this menu, I want you to write down

a couple dates and we're going to go

through this list of dates. We also

tomorrow the stock market is closed. So,

start with that. Tomorrow's

Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving. I wish

you the best on Thanksgiving. I hope you

have a great time with family. I'll

probably do a little live stream just in

case you're lonely and want to hang out

a little bit. We'll do a little hangout

tomorrow. But anyway, Thanksgiving, the

market is closed tomorrow. Friday, you

have a half day. Friday is Black Friday.

We already have our Black Friday sale

for the House hack artificial

intelligence called Reinvest AI. We just

announced it. You can see the video on

my channel or you can check it out at

househack.com or reinvest.co is the same

company. You could get our AI or you can

invest. Read the offering circular. And

we also have the Black Friday sale for

all nine courses now over at the Meet

Kevin membership. You get the new

reinvest course as well. That's at

meetke.com. Uh so those those are Friday

catalysts. But here are the next

catalysts. So the bearish catalyst we

have really there are only two. I've got

ADP December 3rd. That's going to be the

full month of November. And then I've

got the ADP weekly set for December 9th.

Remember that we just had evidence that

the slow bleed is continuing. Now in the

Me Kevin membership I update the bear

bull scale uh pretty regularly and what

I wrote this morning is that nothing's

really changed on my bear bull scale

right here. I'm at a 5.0 on the bear

bull scale and we're we're really 50/50

on recession right you know I think for

out like I want to be transparent with

my biases. I think for IPOing House

hack, I really don't want a recession

because I think I can IPO sooner if

there's no recession. Duh. That's

obvious, right? But look at like the

bullishness that you have going into

next year. You get the hasset cuts. You

get the tax benefits of the big

beautiful bill really taking effect next

year. Fiscal stimulus, maybe you even

get stimulus checks. You know, the

downside is the slow bleed on jobs. And

that's what we're seeing with the ADP

data set. ADP data set showing us weekly

data moving down to negative 13 and a

half thousand isn't great. Now JP Morgan

is bullish and they've got this S&P up

20% by 27 bull target. The reason

they're bullish uh is mostly outlined by

their 2026 JP Morgan playbook. And a lot

of the things that I just summarized,

not including Hasset, but including rate

cuts and fiscal stimulus or whatever are

in this outlook. Now, we've gone through

this outlook before. I'll give you just

like a quick little sampling of it

because I don't want to sound redundant,

but I do think like recalling some of it

is useful. JP Morgan actually sees a lot

of clients holding more cash right now

than they did before the pandemic. And I

wrote down that this is actually

contrarian bullish. It's kind of like

this morning I was talking in the alpha

report about how hey, consumer stocks

right now are on now their fourth day of

rallying. Well, you know, obviously we

didn't know that this morning when the

market was opening. We thought they

might be on their fourth day of

rallying. So, think like Dave and

Busters, Target, Fun, Chipotle,

Cheesecake, Red Robin. Like, some of

these stocks have absolutely been

killing it and we've been watching and

talking about it every day because we've

been watching the collapse and now we're

at this little round out. Some people

are like, "Oh, this is just a trap." But

understand the bullish catalysts. The

bullish catalysts are potentially what

JP Morgan is saying here with cash. This

idea that yes maybe artificial

intelligence progress might be stalling

which is my take but their belief is

that you know right now investment is

contributing massively to artificial

intell or to GDP growth. Uh and this is

great because it keeps GDP propped up

until of course artificial intelligence

U-turns. And this is where I have to be

a little like cautious with like what

what I'm saying here because I'm not

saying we could be blindly bullish. Yes,

JP Morgan has some reasons to be

bullish, but what I call this right now

is a tactical rally now that could

potentially get us to new highs.

But the risk is the slow bleed

continues. Now, why does that make

sense? Because look at my list of

caddies right here. So these bearish

catalysts are not until December 3rd and

December 9th. And really like ADP data

usually isn't enough to move the market.

Look at the bullish catalyst we have

right now all the way through December

10th. No earnings until January. Okay?

So it's hard to get bad news. We're

pretty much done with earnings. We just

had John Deere, Hula Packard, Dell,

Nvidia, you know, we had a lot of our

earnings. The Fed is likely to cut

December 10th. When we went hawkish with

Powell, the market sold off for three

weeks. Now we are actually expecting the

cut for December 10th. That's bullish

bullish catalyst. No October CPI, GDP,

jobs data. Now that's bad in the long

term as an economist or you know a macro

analyst. It's bad. But in the short

term, monkey see no evil. Short-term

bullish. We get a delayed jobs report

after December 10th. we get liquidity

constraints ending December 1st at the

Fed. That's Cyber Monday. Uh in my

opinion, there is a shot at all-time

highs by December 9th. So, I actually

think you have rally mode between now

and December 9th. And I think the

consumer stocks could join with that.

Now, mind you, in greed and fear, the

reason I say consumer stocks are part of

this is because look, and and I'm seeing

this breath is rising. Where's breath?

Right here. Stock market breath. Look at

the U-turn that we're seeing right here.

Now, could it be a trap? Could we fall

off the cliff again? Of course. But

breath has gotten so low, which is the

number of stocks rising versus

declining, right? It's gotten so low

that it makes sense we're seeing a

reversal again. Six flags up again 3%.

Look at this. Look at these on like an

hour chart. These have been straight

down for a while on a day chart, on a

week chart, but on an hour stock the

last four days, six flags up. Robin Hood

bouncing. Chipotle bouncing. Target

bouncing. Uh Red Robin bouncing. Uh

Dave, uh yeah, Dave and Busters

bouncing. Right. This this is increasing

breadth. We're seeing a recovery form,

which is good. You know, AMD regained

200. That's a critical line in our alpha

report. Uh you've got uh coreweave.

Cororeweave has to be above the 69 line

and Cororeweave is barely, you know,

it's not recovering as well. Like I'm

not making long bets on Cororeweave. I

think this will be a bag holder stock in

the future and it will be part of the

artificial intelligence downfall of the

future. But the 6847 line here, this is

great that we're holding it. Short-term

bullish, longer term doesn't really tell

us much, right? So breath great,

liquidity, great. Go back to the

catalysts over here. You got a 100 day

moving average balance on the S&P 500

and the NASDAQ 100. 595 was maintained

on the Q's. And I actually think this is

a great opportunity to diversify. I

think you have between now and December

9th, you know, I'm not saying like get

out before December 9th. Uh, but I think

you have a a critical opportunity

between now and December 9th to ask

yourself, okay, do I want to diversify

from some stocks that I have a really

big allocation in, I have a lot of big

profits in, and do I want to diversify

those into, you know, if I'm convinced

there's going to be a soft landing into

some consumer stocks or maybe you like

some of the stocks on the meet Kevin,

top 10 stocks to buy for the next 10

years list. You know, that's not

personalized financial advice. It's just

a way of saying that when you get these

tactical bounces, there's an opportunity

to do a few things. You can bet on a

soft landing. You could pay off debt.

You could pay off margin. You could

raise cash for a new dip. You could

invest in House Hack and earn 5% uh and

all the upside in the stock. You know,

read the details at househack.com. The

offering circular. This video is not a

solicitation. There's risk with every

investment. You know that. Uh, but I

also think that, you know, this this

Ukraine peace deal, mind you, I think

Putin is not sincere. Like, I think

Putin is just buying time, but I don't

think you're going to realize that Putin

is just buying time before December 9th,

so it's actually a bullish catalyst

versus a negative catalyst. Now, then,

of course, a lot of people are like,

"But Kevin, you know, crypto is in like

this weird like bare cycle." But I

actually think what's happening in

crypto is what I call the anti-treasury

stock meme phase. So in other words, you

had this massive momentum in treasury

stocks, crypto treasuries, and now

you're getting the anti-me movement

because people are making more money on

stocks than on crypto. So they're taking

profits on crypto. I don't think it's a

fundamental indicator. I don't think

it's a very good leading indicator for

what's going on in the market. It's

pretty hit or miss. Even Bitcoin's hit

or miss.

uh you know old five for for in my

opinion old five is a scam and this is

my opinion and the reason for my opinion

I gave two months ago it's a video that

actually did not get a lot of views I

posted this video two two months ago it

got like 27,000 views no nobody cared

about my warning but over here the stock

was like 78 $9

and I called it out as a scam I said

that you know this was a a crypto mining

play in 2019 that somehow failed because

of a storm on Halloween in 2020, right?

I'm like, is this insurance fraud? Then

they got into doing an energy upgrade

scam. Then they got into doing an

appliance recycling scam. Oh, I guess

there are one of the same. Then they got

into applying for a crypto exchange

license in Lithuania. And then they got

into biotech and doing drugs.

Somebody's doing drugs here. But really

what what old five is, you know, which I

have a support line for the stock at

zero. I think it's going to zero. It's

going bankrupt. Really what it is, it's

just a rugpole of people who see a video

on Fox News of the Trump family going,

"Hey, hey, you know, we're going to

revolutionize finance." I'm like, "Guys,

you know, this is where I issued my

warning. Right here is where I issued my

warning. You could look back and look at

the dates. I issue my warning. I'm like,

this is a scam. It is a scam. That's it.

All they're doing is issuing stock at

Alt 5 to buy World Liberty Financial

Token." Why would you buy World Liberty

Financial Token? It's to provide exit

liquidity. So that way the poor saps

watching Fox News going, "Oh, Donald

Trump's gonna revolutionize finance,

honey." They put their money into the

scam and then it goes down AND THEY'RE

LIKE, "OH, WHAT THE HECK? What's going

down? This is this is a rough ride,

honey." Well, no duh. Did you read the

financials? Did you read the business?

It's a fully disclosed scam is my

opinion on it. Like, I don't think I

don't think they misinformed anyone. I

think they were blatantly blunt in their

financial statements, but not on Fox

News. On Fox News is we're going to the

moon, boys and girls. So, I think stuff

like this is dragging down the whole

crypto ecosystem. Like, I also think

that Stretch is probably going to go

down as a Ponzi scheme, uh, STRC, you

know, which is one of the feeder funds

for, uh, Michael Sailor Strategy. Uh,

and so it's not a surprise I put in

Sailor. It's not a surprise that

strategy right now is selling for less

than NAV. You know, they've got $56

billion of Bitcoin. They're trading for

$49 billion. It's because you have sort

of this anti-treasury momentum. You

know, all momentum comes down. The

anti-treasury momentum is leading to a

sell-off in crypto. That's my opinion. I

don't actually think it's a fundamental

leading indicator of recession because

while I do think we have a 50-50 shot of

going into recession, I think if we go

into recession, Bitcoin is going to go

down way more. So will stocks, you know,

risk assets will go down a lot. Interest

rates will come down a lot, so it'll be

great. You know, I actually think it'll

be great for uh real estate, but a very

specific kind of real estate. In fact,

here, look, if you go to reinvest.co,

Co. Uh, scroll past the reinvest AI

product. Scroll past invest in AI and

reinvest. I think it's right here. Our

real estate. I put it. Did I put it

here? Yeah, here. See? High quality,

high growth, slowbuild locations. That's

almost where all of our real estate is.

And I really want you to think about

that phrase. High quality, high growth.

That's where the jobs are, but slow

build. So what happens when you keep

supply low but people kept coming in? So

demand up, supply low, and then add to

that fuel lower rates. What do you think

happens? It's it's like shaking up a can

of soda and then opening it. It's going

to explode up. That that's my take. You

know, that's obviously I mean we don't

it doesn't matter to us because we don't

have any debt on our real estate. Like

we have literally no bank debt. We don't

charge fees. We don't have like

acquisition or disposition or all this

like bull crap fees that all these funds

are doing. We're a real estate and AI

company. That's it. You can see what our

AI is and what we're doing and you can

see the properties we own. There are

like 12 more I need to add to this list

because we just bought like 11 or 12

properties. So, we'll have to add to

this list, but whatever. So, point being

I like kind of bullish honestly between

now and and D9. Now, maybe I'll be

wrong. you know, people like I did this

in April as well. In April, I'm like,

hey, like tariffs are bad, but we're not

going to see the effects of those

tariffs until a while in the future.

It's going to take 6 to 12 months for us

to see those effects. And then I said,

so, you know, strategy could actually be

buying and then just set a trailing stop

if you're nervous. Like last week, I

bought the dip, uh, you know,

reallocating to my top 10 stocks to buy

for the next 10 years. And you know, my

vision in April was that it's going to

take a while for the bad news to hit.

And trailing stops, if you're nervous,

are a great tool for getting in because

if you're nervous, worst case, you set

your limit to get out, right? Topic for

a different video, though. Now, there

are some things that are bad, but people

don't pay attention to these bad things.

Like, for example, the Chicago M&I

business barometer index indicates that

employment is falling at a faster pace.

This is bad. We know this is the

problem. Backlog of orders worst since

March of 2009. That's not good. Overall

index down since May of 2020, worst

since May of 2024, and it's seen as a

leading indicator. That's all bad. It

could be though because we had a lot of

inventory building during the tariff

disaster, right? So, I want you to think

about that. You build up inventory

during the tariff disaster. Uh, you

know, all the taco and the summer and

everything. people are buying like crazy

because they're trying to get ahead of

the um you know increasing in pri

increases in price. So now all of a

sudden you're kind of seeing a give

back. Retail sales for September are

trash. Chicago M&I is bad. That's not

good. Uh but some of that could be a

normalization post the COVID craziness.

So it's not a foregone conclusion that

it's definitely bad. Certainly not

near-term bad. Uh, quick shout out by

the way. I just saw Man Manuel, you just

joined. Uh, lifetime access to the

foundation membership. Reinvest AI.

Robert joined. Ryan joined. Thomas

joined. Marshall joined. Benjamin

joined. You all just joined Reinvest AI.

A Oh, there's Ashford. Ashford joined

the Meet Kevin membership. That Black

Friday sale. Uh, there's another Meet

Kevin membership. But most of y'all

Reinvest AI. Wow. Hopping off on that.

Well, thank you for joining. But anyway,

going back to here, then of course you

still have the private credit disasters,

right? I mean MIT thinks AI can replace

11.7% of the labor force. All this is by

the way in the Meet Kevin app. Um bond

rating agency expects more defaults in

2026. We talked about Jay Clayton and

this pipeline of defaults still coming.

These are all bearish things for 26. the

depreciation, Michael Bur issue, private

credit, liquidity problems, the slow

bleed of labor, all of those are real

issues that we're going to have to get

through between now and the end of 2026.

If we can get through those, hey, JP

Morgan will be right. You know, we could

boom this this article here about bull

case uh 20% up by 2027. Yeah. Uh and and

we see that in their JPM outlook. uh

their JPM outlook for 2026. Remember

what they're very enthusiastic about uh

in investment wise. Let me just get to

the bottom line of this because we had

covered this one before. Uh they say the

biggest risk right now is not having

exposure to transformational technology.

I think that's a little bit of a sales

pitch uh for you know they they argue

like could there be an AI bubble? Yes,

but there's a bigger risk not being a

part of the bubble. [laughter]

But the four opportunities they say are

MAG 7, which I actually think will be

most secure in a uh, you know, in a

recession. Like you're still going to

they're still going to go down, but

they're not going to go bankrupt, right?

Uh, at least we don't think so. I mean,

I guess Tesla's part of there, you know,

[laughter] see how much money they blow

on XAI. But anyway, uh, they talk here

number two opportunity. uh they see

networking equipment, transformers, who

knows maybe Micron, SanDisk, Vertive,

right? MP is basically what they're

talking about. I actually also mentioned

over here uh likely less risky than Fun

Play, Chipotle, Home Depot, the consumer

stocks, but those consumer stocks are in

a hole. And since I wrote this, I wrote

this, when did I write this? I wrote

this ah when did I last look at this? I

think I looked at this like a month ago.

Uh it's probably like three weeks ago.

you know, consumer stocks still come

down quite a bit. Uh, but then the other

things they look at big, look at this,

this was before the Gemini and TPU

boost. Big companies like Google may

compound AI integration faster. The

vertical integration, we literally

foreshadowed it right here. We wrote it

down. Very interesting cuz they wrote

cloud businesses of Microsoft and Google

are vertically integrated and I picked

Google out of them. So that was a few

weeks ago. That's why you got to

subscribe and watch the whole videos. Uh

oh and and since then we have launched

our AI beta product at house hack.com. I

mentioned that up here. Uh and we

actually did a lifetime membership

instead of two to four years. Uh so

that's kind of cool. That's at house

hack.com. What do we have here? Private

credit credit companies. So yeah, we're

basically hearing here mag 7 best

upside. Um, you know, there was some

super micro enthusiasm.

They said, uh, yolo into private

opportunities like GPT, anthropic shares

is what they said or robotics. You know,

that's that's kind of what they argued

here. Although we did get a big Google

shout out there before the TPU Google

announcement. So that was in the JPM

piece. Mind you, they also talk real

assets as a a store of value. So, I was

actually impressed because they do talk

about real estate as well as a hedge

against inflation.

Uh and uh yeah, here the housing market

shortage. So, they spent quite a bit

talking about the benefits of investing

in real assets like real estate. And of

course, I did the the you know,

shameless plug, real assets such as

house hack. Yes, that was the JP Morgan

piece. That's really the foundation for

why you're seeing that 20% bull target

over there. Now, some institutions this

morning are talking about, you know,

they referenced the Bitcoin slide here

as well. Deutsche Bank talks five

reasons for the Bitcoin slide. They say,

uh, a drop in equities and risk

sentiment. That's temporary though.

That's greed and fear problem. You've

got hawkish turn in US monetary policy.

Okay, whatever. uh like that's already

flipped to bullish between now and

December 10th because you know we're

expecting the rate cut now. So yes,

power went bearish now things are going

positive. So you expect some bullish

reversal here, right? Outflows from from

crypto vehicles profit taking. Yes. So I

say that IBIT is really losing its

virginity uh of a market correction. So,

uh, that's because IBIT has never been

through a 30% decline in Bitcoin prices.

So, it's not a surprise you're seeing

the largest outflows for this product

because it's the first time they've

actually experienced a 30% decline. You

know, Bitcoin actual holders have

already been through this many times

before. So, you know, not really a big

deal there. Uh and then TS Lombard

uh they do talk about uh weak corporate

tax payments uh for September. Not

bullish potentially because of the

normalization post the tariff pull

forward. Uh they talk, you know, a

little bit about how Trump will probably

lose uh the Republican majority in

Congress next year. I actually generally

see a stalemate in Congress as bullish.

Uh we see you know I see the tactical

rally between now and D9. What else did

they mention here? Drop in margins.

Margins and employment and wage growth

declining are the longerterm issues.

It's basically what um TS Lombard here

is saying as sort of like a little

recession warning sign. And it's fair,

totally reasonable. It's like I was

looking analyzing a little bit earlier.

Why is workday stock down 9% and why has

it gone nowhere in 5 years? I think it's

mostly just because people are nervous

about the labor market because there was

nothing that I saw on the earnings call

that suggested nervousness and they

actually beat and raised on their

numbers. So, uh you know it's just

people are aware that we are going

through a slowb blade in the labor

market. Look at that Dave and Busters

man up 7% again. We've been talking

about this, I think, every day since

Friday in our uh course member live

streams in the morning, which remember,

you pay once, you get lifetime access to

those course memberships over at

meetke.com. We've had members since, you

know, 2017 in there. Uh somebody this

morning mentioned, I've been here since

2019, you know, and it's uh see people

mention that all the time, but that one

I saw specifically this morning. That's

great. You get a lot of value out of

that. That's at meet.com. Black Friday

coupons live. Uh Google

the one thing I want to end with is uh

you want to watch Google a little bit.

So Google ran 10% since the TPU

announcement. Okay, 10% on the TPU

announcement is insane. It literally ran

an AMD an entire AMD. It ran up on the

Google announcement or on the TPU

announcement. That's kooky dooked. Uh

however, it is a little bit of a risk

gauge. You know, if Google breaks out of

331, it means we're going uber bullish.

Everything's going green again. We're

going to the moon.

Google being kind of flat to negative is

a little bit like, you know, people are

cautious. People are diversifying.

People are raising cash. people got, you

know, caught with a tail between their

legs on leveraged ETFs and margin and

they're a little gunshy about chasing,

you know, the the momentum cuz there's

no other way to describe a 10% increase

in the stock when EPS might

fundamentally move 3% over the next 2

years on on a TPU inclusion. To say that

they deserve a full AMD buildin here is

is is just wild. Uh, so this is probably

healthy that it's not memeing more.

[laughter] Uh, but anyway, this gives

you a breakdown of everything uh, that's

going on. Uh, and then of course, always

remember, go check out the product. We

got reinvest.co or house hack.com. Same

company. You could learn about the AI

product, what you get now versus what

you get in the future. Keep in mind, we

have a lot of development and future

phases. So, it's a very early uh,

release product that comes out in

December. You could read what's coming

next year, what we're in process on

building and what's out now. What's out

now is obviously very limited relative

to what's coming out. But uh what's

coming out, you know, once those

features come out, we expect to raise

the price. Raise raise.

So uh anyway, check that out over at

houseack.com or reinvest. And then of

course uh remember that you could also

get into the alpha report by going to

mekevin.com. You get that reinvest

course as well, which I'll be dropping

next week. uh a continuation of Trump

economics and a bunch of new lectures

which is very exciting. Some

diversification, debt, trading, finance

for children, insurance, liabilities,

entities, real estate, long-term wealth,

and this is in addition to all the other

courses as [music] well. So, pretty

exciting.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. [music] Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.