F%*K

well folks it is official the nasdaq is

down

20.79 year-to-date we are officially in

a nasdaq bear market and the question

now is this is the bottom is this time

to buy the dip or is this just the

beginning i mean if we compare now on

logarithmic charts the decline of 20

all the way back to the decline that we

saw at the beginning

of the dot-com bubble we saw the dot-com

bubble ended up having another 60

to go think about it dot com bubble tech

indices down that is the nasdaq down at

80 percent we're down just 20 now on the

nasdaq so

who's to say there isn't more pain ahead

i mean after all we fell 20

in 2018

simply because the federal reserve was

raising rates and it took them u-turning

on raising rates to flip the script

we've got a few more levels of

uncertainty at this point

so how could now potentially be a bottom

or is it potentially a bottom well to

try to evaluate whether or not we're

near a bottom i think it's very helpful

to look at the levels of fear in the

economy and our geopolitical environment

and then try to determine is it possible

for fear to get worse from here or can

fear get better from here

and this is something for each of us to

evaluate so let's take a look at this

keep in mind every day when i start

thinking about these sorts of thoughts i

always have conversations with you and

my course member live streams give you

insight into exactly what my thoughts

are in terms of what i'm doing with my

portfolio take a look at those programs

linked down below there's a coupon code

expiring on the 25th which is only a few

days away and take a look at that but

for now let's get started with this take

a look at this

so in 2021

these were roughly the fears that we had

higher inflation for longer and the fed

rate liftoff this is where we feared

that oh my gosh we're gonna get 2018 and

if we get 2018 markets could fall 20

percent oh no

okay well now we're down 20 percent

but we have way more than just these

fears take a look at the list of fears

that we have right now

oil somewhere between 100 to 120 per

barrel yeah it's down today great 105

100 608 dollars per barrel doesn't

really matter but the spike in energy

costs from the 90s and the low or the

high 80s where we had been is going to

lead to inflationary panic right

this is suggesting that inflation might

end up hitting eight nine maybe even 10

percent

next month when we look back to march

and see what inflation was actually like

in march and we know these numbers are

way underestimated anyway

now the market's also pricing in some

degree of nuclear

conflict or conflict with nato now i

think this is probably less than 10

because the i think the odds of this are

quite low but the market will price some

degree of this sort of fear in the

market always likes to price in as much

as it can and just because

something like well i guess the way to

say this is things aren't binary right

it's not like okay nuclear war is going

to happen okay today it's not and then

the market just flip-flops back and

forth it's much more like a gradient uh

and so as percentages change we see

markets move right this is why when we

go from maybe a 20 chance of a recession

to a 40 chance of recession we're likely

to see some red in the market and that's

approximately i'd say where where we sit

somewhere now still less likely that

we're actually going to have a recession

uh then then it is likely that we'll

have a recession now i know this is a

little bit of a change from my pov i

previously had these flipped but that's

because i believed that the federal

reserve was going to rug pull us this

summer but they've already telegraphed

that they would not rug pull us in fact

not only are they telegraphing to us

that they're not planning on drug

pulling us but they're telegraphing to

us the memory of first of all fate

flexible average inflation targeting and

what did jerome powell just tell us he

just told us that hey

you know our current target of inflation

is two percent which means if inflation

is let's just say as an extreme uh zero

percent for a while uh like i don't know

five years and uh ten percent for one

year maybe it'll average out to two

percent right just as an example okay

that didn't do the perfect math on that

but what's more important here is what

jay powell just said and he said hey you

know remember we still have flexible

average inflation targeting and while he

was in congress just a couple weeks ago

what did he tell us he told us we might

end up having to move our inflation

target up

that might imply three percent or two

and a half percent or maybe three and a

half percent right and that is a way of

telegraphing hey we're not we're not

planning on rug pulling the market we're

going to go slow with our 25 basis point

rate hikes but we're going to do them

consistently i think the market right

now is pricing in about 7 25 basis point

hikes i think up to 17 realistically are

possible that would bring us to about

4.25 percent uh i wouldn't be surprised

to see that uh though

you know if the fed u-turns at any point

between let's say hike five and hike 17

that would be quite bullish for the

market

market right now appears to be pricing

and some global gdp declined

then of course wow

this is kind of embarrassing but the uh

the apple device here uh auto-corrected

shenzhen china

to uh

that but anyway we've got these new

coveted lockdowns uh in in parts of

china especially the tech hub within

china shenzhen and and these are

creating substantial supply chain fears

again that's just news over the last 24

hours so could be one of the reasons we

saw pain in the market today of course

elon musk on twitter

he didn't respond directly to me but he

asked what did everybody think about

inflation and i'm not trying to pat

myself on the back at all

but i replied with my inflation

expectations which you can follow me on

twitter if you don't yet

at real meat kevin but anyway

in addition to replying with sort of my

expectations for inflation i i also

replied and said hey can we get your

opinion too that is do you see any

improvement in supply chains and elon

musk replied to himself

that more broadly things actually seemed

like they were getting worse at tesla

and spacex

not better

this is all before he challenged putin

to a fight but that's that's a different

thing

uh we've now seen the 10-year treasury

yield spike uh it's actually i mean last

just about a week and a half ago is 1.7

our previous peak was about 2

i shorted treasuries at about 1.89

and basically the higher these go the

more money my short makes

and now they've gone up to 2.14 they've

hit a record so at least my shorts doing

well

on treasuries some of my lungs didn't

like today but that's okay i bought a

little bit today but i'll talk to you

about why

uh so 2.1 percent we're actually 2.14

now here after hours on the 10-year and

then of course this this fear about

consumer spending consumer sentiment

declining right so all of these things

are really built into the fear

perspective that we have right now and

it's so wild because if we compare this

to 2021

there is very little reason to be

fearful in fact

if you go back to the fear of let's just

say 2020 here for example what was the

fear that we had in 2020 uh well the

second wave right you remember that the

second wave fear or the election drama

why did we buy the dip like crazy during

these times well we did because the fed

was our friend

this was very clear the fed was our

friend so it was easy to buy the dip

then

now the the fed has essentially no

longer become our friend they kind of

stopped being our friend somewhere in

2021 and that's when we started getting

a little bit more fearful about how

higher inflation for longer and the fed

rate left off but now we have all this

there is a lot of fear priced into the

market right now and so now there are

questions over is it possible that this

could be a bottom

is it possible that

we're we're you know now is the time to

buy the dip and there are a few things

to look at

first of all

i want to look at one quick technical

here where we'll look at a couple

technicals and then i want to tell you a

little bit more about my thesis

so keep kevin up right here so first of

all take a look at this

you got a triple bottom here on the qqq

on the zero percent fibonacci line now

uh if you saw my video last week you

know that i've moved the fibonacci down

from uh where it was at about 320 to

about 3 18 5. and i moved that down when

we hit this bottom right here in about 3

8 when we had about the start of our

double bottom

so i did slide the fib down just

slightly here just to update that

accuracy and i always like to give you

updates when i move the lines otherwise

i don't move them

we did fall slightly below that but

that's okay you can you can oftentimes

extend below the fibs just like over

here but we did close above that fib we

closed about

321 is where we're trading for right now

and after hours but closed approximately

right at the fib

and so what's incredible about this is

we have now tested this zero percent

fibonacci on the nasdaq three times

okay good uh we we haven't really seen

triple dips on the nasdaq here at the

same level uh

of these sorts of extremes and in my

opinion these sort of longer candle

wicks are a little bit of a sign of

potential potentially large margin calls

happening in the industry that is you

know people are waking up this morning

to margin calls they're getting

liquidated and and they're forced to

sell this is why you do not want to be

in margin in this environment right

and we're going to talk about my

expectations as well here but quickly

look at the qq or the sorry the spy here

the spy here closed at 417 which is just

fractionally below my 420 zero percent

fib and look at that you're almost

triple bottoming here as well i think if

my fib was about 20 percent sorry 20

cents lower here

actually probably a little bit more more

like 60 70 cents slower then then we'd

be right under

these candles right here minus the wicks

which i think these wicks are really

margin liquidations here but you're

seeing a very similar triple kind of

bottom here i personally think when we

compare these double

you know two sets of triple bottoms the

spy and the qqq

to this level of peak fear we have

there's this potential that

is the market maybe done pricing in fear

that is have we fully priced in all of

this fear

and see this is where a lot of folks say

no way how could we price in all of the

fear kevin

when we have the feb the fed meeting

on march uh 16th it's it's actually on

the 15th

is when it starts tomorrow it just ends

on the 16th but so we generally say the

16th because that's when we hear about

it

and in my opinion and i said this in

january i think it's very convenient for

people to forget this because they just

like to read titles like there was

somebody who had a really good uh tweet

on on

twitter

they said you may want to go watch

kevin's videos instead of just reading

the titles no different than a karen on

twitter you're trained by the headlines

shout out to babbage thanks i was nailed

it

but see

when i sold in january

i made it very clear that i believed we

would hit a level of peak fear before

the federal reserve meeting of march

16th

and that i wanted to buy back in before

march 16th because i believe that this

is when we would get peak fear

and so this is where i try to challenge

myself because i could also be wrong

right and i try to ask myself how can we

get

more bad news

we can

because we can't look for black swans

because you can't see them right we have

no idea what a black swan could be there

could easily be another black swan i

mean look at it this way in 2021 were we

anticipating war with russia were we

anticipating an oil price shock to 130

you know we're re-anticipating some of

the the madness uh that we have now no

of course not were we expecting that we

were going to get omicron that was going

to mostly remove uh kovid from from our

society with the exception of in china

where we have a lot of supply chains and

reliance on supply no of course not

right

so

there's absolutely the likelihood that

there are a lot of bad news things that

just are not priced in yet because we're

not aware of them yet that's fine that's

possible

but if we look at these items here

i'm not sure

that these items by themselves can get

substantially

worse in fact i believe that these items

are likely to get better before they get

worse for example i do not believe that

the federal reserve is going to rug pull

us and they're going to make that

crystal clear

on this march 16th meeting watch my

video yesterday when i broke down uh

it's i think it's called watch before

wednesday urgent or whatever

very important video about the summary

of economic projections that is going to

be a critical catalyst for this market

you really want to understand that video

because when that summary of economic

projections comes out you might want to

sit there ready to trade

depending on you know what you want to

do with your portfolio but we've already

started seeing oil come down right not

only have we already started seeing oil

come down from some of the peaks but

look when opec and acidental whatever

when these massive oil companies tell

you we're not going to drill more oil

because we think these high prices are

transitory

they don't use the word transitory but

they literally tell us like we're going

to take this extra money from selling

oil at higher prices and we're going to

pay down debt and we're going to raise

cash and then we'll have more cash

during the down cycles when the ceos are

telling you they're that that's a sign

that they know these oil prices are

going to go down they will go down

uh so and i've been expecting a

commodities collapse

that does not mean we are at peak

commodity prices don't get me wrong

commodity price could still go up but

i've been calling for commodities

collapse and and you're starting to see

some of that i mean even just look at

the wheat etf w-e-a-t right

you're starting to see that pain that

momentum that carried us up over here is

starting to go away that's because fear

is starting to wane i know that sounds

insane because this is what it feels

like when you're at peak fear like

there's so much freaking fear right now

how could somebody tell you we're

potentially at peak fear it sounds

idiotic right maybe it is but that's why

i'm trying to logic this out like i i

don't have a crystal ball but i do try

my best not only to be as transparent as

possible

not only on this channel i mean i think

i telegraph all my intentions it's so

freaking clear but you know when i do

all my buys and sells i'm the only

person who tells you what i'm doing with

all of my freaking portfolio

uh of course

every single move in the stocks and

psychology of money group linked down

below

but still

that's nerve-wracking i hate the

judgment

because i'm just trying to do my best

though right anyway

so

inflation of eight nine maybe ten

percent for march

spriced in

and jerome powell already told us that

we're expecting a one-time shock from

energy and food prices

again look at what we're already seeing

with food prices on wheat right

i know we've had like a nickel short

squeeze and some madness and things like

that uh that's okay that's gonna happen

those sorts of wild things are going to

happen but anyway i would say this

really gives us upside it's like it's

almost kind of like inflation's so bad

that russia and putin are like let's

just make it really bad

and then it can only go down from there

and i bet you that is what the fed is

betting on

personally

i think a 10 fear of nuclear or nato

conflict is highly overblown so i think

that's an upside as well in fact if you

jump over here

to the ukraine scenarios i did a video

on this this weekend i hope you watch it

i think there are five scenarios uh

gosh man with that that's the siri here

coupon instead of coup

anyway with the ukraine scenarios i

think there are five scenarios a russia

win and then you have a long-term

insurgency in ukraine which would be

disastrous longer-term sanctions this

this would be bad

not good a partial russian win and

zelensky bk

also

not ideal for markets a negotiated end

crimea georgia ended within six to 14

weeks we're only three weeks into this i

think this is absolutely a huge upside

potential i don't really think a coup

d'etat is likely although putin getting

toppled either by the people or the

military is possible and in my opinion

the only reason putin would get pot

toppled is if the military and generals

and the people or and or decided putin's

lost his mind and they kick him out and

they send him to an island like napoleon

bonaparte you know to to go live in

obscurity and and uh you know

solitude

uh so i actually i personally think this

would be an upside and then i really

don't think that this nato war is very

likely i don't think that at all

uh there's a lot of saber-rattling and

there's a reason russia is shooting rpgs

at the office building of a nuclear

reactor it's to increase their

negotiating posture

you know

that you want to you want to create

nuclear fear how about you go over to

six reactors in ukraine that are

responsible for you know 15 plus percent

of the energy output of ukraine and just

um

start blasting away you know that that's

going to create some fears so uh that's

terrible but anyway i do think that a

negotiated end is highly likely we've

seen softness from putin on this we've

seen softness from

uh zielinski on this

okay

so

uh

that uh that in my opinion means we have

uh uh upside

again on the ukrainian conflict which

really i mean i suppose could be another

line i'd have been here so i'm just

gonna put ukraine in general because you

have that the upside on nuclear fears

but then you also have just upside on on

ukraine in general uh

you know there there are other

downsides uh i don't think we're gonna

see this rug pull uh this 725 basis

point hikes or whatever no problem the

markets did fine when we had this

between 2004 and and 2006

which uh that is literally what jerome

powell said we should compare to

so he thinks we're more like a 2003 and

four

than like a 2007 right

that's his comparison okay his words

uh the or the rate hikes of the early

like look when i listen to jerome powell

i listen to every word people think i'm

crazy but there's a reason he ends up in

my dreams at night most of the time

nightmares

okay this sounds wrong anyway uh

the the recession fears okay so so this

is tbd right

the recession fears could be a problem

here uh because they're going to give

some some resistance to higher prices

what what recession fears are going to

do is they're going to prevent us from

hitting all-time highs you're not going

back to all-time highs probably not this

year honestly we're not going back to

all-time highs so if you're you're if

you're buying call options thinking

we're going to go right back to all-time

highs i don't think we're going back to

all-time highs anytime soon could be

wrong don't think so

the global gdp decline will also

keep this sort of limitation here the

the shenzhen lockdowns and the inflation

i think there's really only upside from

from this because omicron will will fade

the chinese gets sick everybody's gotten

sick with lomicron let's move on now i

know there's some renewed fears about

delta cron we've heard these fears

before

we'll wait and see we'll see

uh sure that that's just another

potential

uh you know black swan but uh

it's not something i'm worried about

right now but then again you know

things could change so we'll keep an eye

on that okay so we'll put we'll put a

little asterisk down here and we'll put

delta c

okay kron i'll just write it out okay

then uh you know same thing i think

upside for elon the logistic issues the

treasuries okay this is a problem for

the real estate market it does not have

to be a further problem for the stock

market i i really would not be surprised

to see the tenure go all the way up to

three percent

that's just my expectation and it's not

gonna be great for real estate in in the

short term it's going to create some

headwinds

so we'll watch this and then same thing

with consumer sentiment this is this is

sort of a sideways risk but i think one

once some of these other issues go away

it's likely actually that consumer

sentiment would rebound

so i'm actually going to say that has

upside okay so in my opinion

everything here is either like

max fear priced in or has upside

unless of course there are some other

you know black swans right

so the big thing that's stopping people

in my opinion from buying today

are uh two-folded one margin calls

because they haven't been watching me

since november telling people to get out

of margin literally since november i've

been saying close your call options get

out of margin

or limit your margin because i did go

briefly into margin for a short period

of time myself

stupid don't do that

i never got marginal

okay two

margin uh margin calls are gonna be a

big issue number two fat fear seriously

uh people

who do not pay close attention to jay

pal

think he's going to come out with

another big rug pull

maybe he will

i don't think so we just heard him two

weeks ago in congress lay out his plan

the summary of economic projections is

going to be interesting because that's

not just j pal that's everybody together

right

but we'll see

so in my opinion

if you're investing in this market

uh or not and you're sort of on the side

waiting wondering what to do

in my opinion

if you are going to sell if you're

looking for a sell opportunity

my expectation is the time to sell is

probably somewhere between march 16

to march 25 27 some something like that

right before we get back into labor and

cpi and fears like that maybe even

the 25th that way you're a week before

labor

on april 1st and then cpi on april 12th

uh i think this is potentially you know

saint patty's day kind of excitement

time

but that also potentially makes

the time to buy

today

uh march 14 to 16 at

11 am

my thesis

could be very wrong

so uh we just wanted to provide you

updates on this uh one thing i would say

in terms of which stocks that you choose

i would really lean probably towards

companies that have the best capacity

for handling supply chain issues

in my opinion those are your

bigs all right

uh just a quick example there's some

other names that i have maybe we'll talk

about them in the course uh in the

morning probably will

uh but just as an example and you can

kind of think about this yourself

all right so

my thoughts check out the programs

linked down below on building wealth i

appreciate you watching this a little

bit of a longer video but i think lots

of good information my goal is to bring

you as much value per minute as possible

hopefully you agree with that and we'll

see in the next one goodbye