Black Monday 2.0 | Our Economy is Royally F**K'ed.

Oh man, did Donnie T just set up the

straw that's going to break this

economy's back. We've got to talk about

it. And boy, do I have a lot of research

put together for you to make this as

simple as possible. First, we got to set

the stage. You got to understand where

we are in sort of the cycle of euphoria

right now. And a lot of people are like,

"Ah, there's no euphoria. Earnings are

good. Everything's fine." And then I

wonder, ah, yes, the stock investors are

clearly looking at earnings. There's no

better place I go to find earnings than

a stock like Olo. Oh, this must be some

crazy penny stock, right? I mean, only

penny stocks move like this. Wrong. It

is a $21 billion market cap idea. But

that's okay because everybody's making

money because the stock's going up and

to the right. So, who cares what the

actual earnings are because wait, the

economy is supposed to be backed by

corporate earnings, right? Uh well, not

in the case of Ollo. Their income

statement has no income. Uh let me

quickly hide that cuz it's pretty bad.

Uh oh no, what is this? Oh, insiders

selling every damn stock they can get

their fingers on. Oh. Oh, what about

this one? Oh. Oh gosh. More insider

selling. Uh, more insider selling. More

insider selling. More insider selling.

More insider. They're off. You get the

idea. But that's okay. Maybe that's just

a Maybe it's just idiosyncratic. Maybe

it's not the economy at all. Maybe it's

not the stock market at all. I mean,

it's it's not like margin debt is at

all-time highs.

It is. It's not like, you know, crypto

just had its highest inflows ever

before, you know, yesterday. Obviously,

it did. It's not like stocks have had

their highest month of inflows from

retail investors ever in the history of

investments.

We did just have the highest month ever

of retail stock inflows. It's not like

two weeks ago, Bank of America had the

second highest deployment of stock

purchases by their clients ever. We did.

And at least we haven't gotten to the

point yet where you've got leveraged

ETFs promoting themselves on financial

Twitter to get more people to understand

the power and downsides of leverage than

ever before. Oh, that's now happening as

well.

Well, I guess you could say there's a

lot of hope that everything is just

going to be okay. I mean, after all, GDP

is cranking. All we have to do is jump

on over to the Atlanta Fed real GDP

index and see that everything is fine

because obviously the stock market

trades based off of what GDP is. It's

It's never seen revisions to GDP and and

never traded disconnected from actual

economic realities or earnings. Ever

before, right? Damn. Do I still have

time to get out of my stocks before I

post this damn video?

All right, look. We got to be real here.

We have some serious problems. And yes,

Donald Trump may have just laid up the

straw that does end up breaking the

economy's back. Let's actually talk

about some of the components of what's

going on because right now not only do

we have a lot of hope but we are also in

a very h this time is different

environment. Don't worry about the whole

tangled circle of investments that we're

seeing out there. Just just don't mind

the fact that we have had the highest

capex to sales ratio that we have seen

at companies in the last 25 years.

Fortunately supported yes by cash flow

generation right now.

Will it last? That's the big question.

And the situation with China along with

what's going on with the government is a

big deal. And so, we're going to break

all of this down. It it it is a lot to

take in, but I want to consolidate this

all into one video for you. Remember, uh

I have two goals. Uh number one, I want

to in this video direct you to the daily

wealth. You can now get that totally for

free if you want in the Meet Kevin app.

Download the Meet Kevin app in the Apple

or Android app store. And then number

two, my goal is just to provide value.

So let's get into providing as much

value as I can in this video because

there's a lot to do. So the reductions

in force have begun. Uh people are now

getting letters uh inside of the

government that say, "I regret to inform

you that you are being affected by a

reduction in force action. Please find

attached a notice of memorandum

explaining the riff and next steps. This

riff action does not reflect directly on

your service, performance, or conduct.

It is being taken solely for reasons

stated in the memorandum which is of

course coming straight down from uh the

Oval Office suggesting hey if there is

no funding for your department that and

and therefore you are at risk of seeing

your department's funding cut uh it is

time for you to start essentially firing

people and that's exactly what's been

happening. Now, will that end up

trickling into the economy when all of

these people who end up getting laid off

at the government now try to find work

elsewhere? Yes. Yes, it will. That's

going to be another insult to injury

here. And then, of course, we are back

to an egoboosted tariff war. See, Donald

Trump since liberation day where his ego

actually got hurt and he had to shift

whether it was Howard Slutnik or

Bessant who ended up talking on TV. We

found that Bessant was good for stocks.

So, let's just put Bessant on TV. And

since then, honestly, the market's been

straight up. Part of this is because

many investors know that tariffs will

take 6 to 12 months to really show their

effects. I mean, consider you could go

back 95 years ago to the Smood Holly

tariff era and find that yeah, you had a

stock market reaction when the Smood

Holly tariffs were first implemented

before the Great Depression following

the crash of 29, which you know, the

crash of 29 was like a 20 29% drop.

Yeah, we ended up getting an 80% drop in

the Dow Jones Industrial Average by the

time the depression was over in 32 32 to

33. So what what actually happened was

that even after some of the initial

shock waves of these tariffs 95 years

ago, it actually took 6 to 12 months to

really see the Smooth Holly tariffs show

up in global trade data and GDP data.

Global trade ended up collapsing 40%,

GDP collapsed 15% across the globe. And

so, while those are some pretty extreme

numbers and we don't think those numbers

are going to be as extreme now, it's

worth remembering we're literally 6

months from Liberation Day and the

Smooth Holly tariffs really started

showing up 6 to 12 months after the

enactment of those tariffs. So, we're

right now at just the beginning of where

the oopsy dupsies might end up coming

into play from tariffs. And it's coming

at a time where the catalysts we have

aren't great. See, we actually had a

really wonderful last few weeks. This is

something we've been talking about in

the Meet Kevin membership. We we've been

talking about how, hey, we're going to

have the Federal Reserve in the third

week of September, but after that Fed

meeting, if the government shuts down,

we're not going to get jobs data. We're

not going to get CPI data. We're not

actually going to get any bad news. And

basically no news is just going to be

good news. In fact, we had targets that

the cues would end up making it to 615,

which we made it about 612. We had

targets that if AMD held 200, Nvidia

would go to 195, which is exactly what

it did. We had targets for Tesla and

many other stocks. And all of it was

based on, hey, there's really no lack of

data right now or there's really no data

right now to ruin this party. this is

great. Like, nobody's taking the punch

bowl away. And it got to the point where

we kind of we're all pinching each other

on almost a daily basis or pinching

ourselves on a daily basis. You know, we

have to pinch each other, okay? Uh

going, "Oh man, like this is this is

kind of ludicrous, but we like the

money. We like the green in the

portfolios." You know, a lot of people

are looking at their portfolios this

weekend. They're like, "Damn, I should

have sold Monday morning, you know, like

or Friday morning." And I'm like, I get

it. I I get the feeling entirely. And

that's why I wanted to put together this

video because there's just so much to

think about.

But the most important thing to think

about right now, of course, we're going

to talk about the Chinese situation, but

understand we have an SH9T book of

catalysts ahead of us.

See, when we went from the Fed meeting

to nothing basically over the last 3

weeks, we had just positive things to

look forward to, which we knew was going

to be bad for bond yields, which it was.

you know, bond yields rose again. So,

bad for people investing in bonds or

mortgage or interest rate sensitive

plays. But now the story is flipping.

We're at the flipping point. Now, all of

a sudden, bond yields are plummeting.

People are nervous again about stocks.

Why? Well, here's what to pay attention

to. Number one, we just heard we're

going to get CPI data on the 24th. So,

write on your calendar. 5:30 a.m. meet

Kevin will be live streaming CPI data on

October 24th. So, we've got a new

catalyst, but it's and that was also a

catalyst we weren't expecting we were

going to get. We thought it was just

going to be delayed forever until, you

know, the Schumer shutdown, the Schumer

siesta came to an end, but you already

know my opinions on the politics around

that. We don't have to talk about that

in this video. On October 29th, we'll

have the Fed's FOMC decision, which

right now, most of the market is

convinced that, oh yeah, we're just

going to keep seeing rate cuts. The rate

cut cycle has started. But are we

setting up too much of an anticipation

that the Fed will be doubbish when they

don't actually have data to justify

being doubbish?

That's actually somewhat bearish for the

economy, right? Again, we're going from

no data is great news to a crap, now

we're going to get CPI data. Now we're

going to get the Fed and they might not

forecast as many cuts. Then now we've

got Apac on October 31st, Halloween and

November 1st, which is maybe when Donald

Trump will speak with President Xiin

Bing. Maybe not. Then we have bank

earnings starting this week. So we're

going into full steam ahead Q3 earnings

season here.

On top of this, the S&P 500 is literally

up 32% from April. People are worried

about jobs and the potential that this

jobs report is going to drop all of a

sudden. We're going to go, "Oh, whoa, we

just got blindsided on jobs." People are

worried about corporate capex and the

potential that maybe we're overdoing it

a little bit with this cyclical

investment nature we're getting out of

Nvidia, AMD, Open AAI, and the other

companies. We've talked about that

plenty. A lot of that, by the way, being

fueled by debt financing. This is why we

just saw the largest liquidation in the

crypto markets in the history of crypto

markets. We also have this assumption

that tariffs are not going to have an

impact on our economy, which

historically is false. Of course, in the

near term, like the first 6 months, wow,

tariffs haven't really had an impact.

Duh. That's what we've been saying since

Liberation Day. It's going to take

months to show this stuff up in the

data, especially since people and

companies are going to go through

inventory they have to sort of delay the

impact of tariffs. And we're sitting at

recent record high inflows. All of this

together with the fact that Bloomberg

Intelligence suggests analysts expect

profit growth of 7.4% for US stocks in

Q3 suggests we have this really insanely

high bar for the stock market right now.

Like let me just simplify that in like

one sentence for you. Okay, it's like

hey yo GPT give me a summary on this

crap. Okay, it is that stocks at record

high, debt at record high, spending at

record high, expectations at record

high, assumptions of Fed cuts at record

high, and assumptions that there ain't

going to be any problem with tariffs at

record highs.

What direction can we really go when

that is what the setup is? We have a

really really high bar to avoid

profit taking. This is probably the

highest bar ever in the history of

financial markets. I don't think the bar

has ever ever ever been more looney

beans inflated.

Now, that's not to say there aren't

actual real companies making really good

money. Like, Facebook's valuation is

really low right now. We did a

phenomenal fundamental analysis on this

in the meet Kevin membership, which

remember you get lifetime access to if

you join at meet.com. Use coupon code

schemer.

On top of that, Nvidia isn't even

technically properly valued based on its

earnings per share growth expectations

for the next four years. It's actually

selling at a discount.

But we feel these companies are at

record highs and so people aren't

choosing to invest in those. Instead,

they're going for the profitless

companies like the Olos, the Annealing

Quantum plays, which are mostly a vast

scam. Some quantum plays are great,

others not so much. Uh, and then of

course plowing money into anything that

is related to rare earths because yes,

if Donnie T says rare earths are what

we're going to invest in, then one day

we'll see the profits from those. Even

though we really have no heavy rare

earth refinement in the United States

and we have just 4% of the capacity to

actually process rare earth minerals

compared to China, which isn't great. In

other words, China eats our lunch in

this for days. Which of course, that's

where we need to talk about China. See,

the reality is all of this started

because of China. That Donald Trump is

now suggesting an extra 100% tariff on

Chinese goods will be imposed starting

November 1st. That's up from 57%

for now a

130% total. Now, of course, a lot of

people are hoping that Donald Trump will

taco, as in Trump always chickens out

and we'll end up getting some kind of

90-day pause or delay in tariffs and

we'll be able to keep the party going.

Of course, Donald Trump is also

suggesting that we're going to ban the

exports of any and all critical software

to China next month, which apparently

might include companies like Oracle and

Microsoft, to which Craig Lawrence on X

writes the following. Oh, damn. You mean

China won't be able to use SAP, Oracle,

and Microsoft software? Won't this

increase their productivity?

Oh, damn. Satisfying.

Uh, but like, let's understand the

relationship here between Trump and

China to see are we going to get more

90-day tacoing?

Quite possible. which would be great,

but it's really just kicking the can

down the road. Or is this the moment

where China not only digs in its heels,

but Donald Trump digs in his heels? I

mean, Donald Trump coming up on midterm

elections and during the quote unquote

Schumer shutdown, wouldn't want to come

across as weak on China, would he?

That'd probably be somewhat ego

bruising, especially since Donald Trump

in his truth social post says that this

Chinese aggression came quote out of

nowhere, which is ironic because China

has been building as we should have been

our or I should say, you know, we should

have been building this, but China is

building their rare earth infrastructure

since we kind of gave up the ball in the

70s. China has also been moving soybean

production and investing in Brazil to

basically hedge against the United

States power here since the 1990s. And

then of course Trump 1.0 know really

told China you can't rely on US

interdependence that much and you might

start insolating yourself which of

course China had a wonderful five six

seven years here to start insolating

themselves from and that's why they have

the power to be more aggressive today

than ever before and see this is

probably the biggest risk factor here

see Donald Trump announced a framework

deal with China in June

China didn't comment on the deal.

Instead, they suggested, "We support

free and fair trade." This is actually

very similar to Donald Trump's style of

announcing deals and then p pressuring

the other side to accept the deal that

he announced that they already had, even

though he never talked with the other

side. It's the same thing that he did

with Hamas

in this recent negotiation with Israel.

There's just a really big difference

between Hamas and China. China doesn't

need to get bullied into a deal. Hamas

is broken, leaderless, and their

financial backer, Iran, got pretty damn

humbled in fairness, to credit to Donald

Trump.

China, though,

this is a little different. Trump's

unilateral trade deal here really

doesn't have a chance,

and that does create a risk of a

prolonged final boss in the tariff

warfare. see Europe and Canada and

Mexico and individual countries and

continents,

they kind of have to roll over to Donald

Trump because Donald Trump does

represent the most powerful economy and

most powerful consumer in the world. So

yes, Donald Trump is able to leverage

the hegemonic power that the United

States has created. It's going to piss a

lot of countries off and they will

become less interdependent over time

because of it. we are sort of decaying

our um moral bank account, if you will.

We're draining our moral bank account by

doing this, right? China, though,

they're the final boss. And China sees

themselves as either equal to the United

States here, worse, superior to the

United States. Very possible. But it's

not just that. China sees themselves as

morally justified here. Now, how do we

know that? We know this because China

just yesterday, on the very day that

Donald Trump announced these new

tariffs, had their international trade

representative for the Chinese Ministry

of Commerce visit the G20 trade and

investment ministers meeting in South

Africa yesterday. And guess what China

said when they were there?

They said the following on screen here.

The individual called on all parties to

uphold the multilateral trading system,

free trade, oppose unilateralism and

protectionism, avoid trade restrictions,

remove green trade barriers, and

leverage their comparative advantages to

jointly support developing countries,

injecting impetus to green

industrialization and sustainable

development. Oh, Kevin, I can't listen.

What the hell did you just say, Doc?

I know this is a stupid paragraph, so

let me break this down. Okay, they said

China said, "Let's have multilateral

trade, aka let's screw Trump for forcing

his own unilateralism on people, his

singleminded way." Then they say, "Let's

have free trade, aka, let's screw

Trump's tariffs," which are obviously

not free trade. tariffs are basically

unfair trade being used in as sort of

like a counterweight argument by Trump

for oh well but China's been unfair you

know and people make this argument all

the time that China's been unfair it is

true like China steals our intellectual

property that's terrible China doesn't

care okay they want to build up their

own industries they're being selfish

this is true on the flip side is China

truly dumping solar panels on the US

market or is China just better at

manufacturing and able to manufacture

way more at a higher quality than the

Germans or Americans can do at lower

prices. And then Americans are like,

"Well, do I want higher quality,

more of them for a lower price, or do I

want to buy American or Deutsch and pay

more and have lower quality?" Like, you

know, so we think about dumping, you

know, sometimes we got to balance that

out a little bit. All right? Like, well,

I don't know. I kind of want to be

dumped on and I but anyway so then you

know they say let's oppose unilateralism

and protectionism aka let's also oppose

Donald Trump right like can you see what

I'm doing here is like the Chinese are

digging in their heels here they say

let's work together to remove green

trade barriers who is throwing up green

trade barriers right now oh uh let's see

who calls it the green new scam oh right

because windmills are killing our whales

Then they say, "Let's work together,"

which is not what Trump wants to do, and

support green energy, which again leaves

Donald Trump behind. You're basically

giving China the next decade to get what

they want with green energy. So, you

want to invest in green energy, solar,

uh, inverters, panels, windmills, or

whatever. You should be investing in

these Chinese companies because they

they just got handed a license to

dominate that sector by Donald Trump.

And I mean, frankly, you got to

understand where Donald Trump comes

from. It's not that solar panels or wind

are bad. There is no one source of

energy that is purely without their

downfalls. I mean, nuclear is pretty

damn good, but we still have, you know,

we got to build the infrastructure. So

there there are issues there as well,

right? But it's really that Trump's

tirade against solar panels and wind is

really just a way to get Republican

votes because of the oil and natural gas

lobby.

Wind and solar are actually really great

and really useful.

But Donald Trump wants the oil and gas

lobby votes, which is exactly what he

does with crypto. Trump doesn't give a

flying f about crypto. He just wants the

votes and he wants the donations and he

wants the money because he wants to win

and he wants people to get on their

knees and tell him that he's right.

At the same time, for the sake of

propping up politicians, you've got in

America, you've got the Chinese

Communist Party building like armored

robotic army for their people uh or or

armor for their people. Armor armored

robotic armor. robotic art. I know

whatever the hell you would call this.

>> Like what?

>> Like the robots we're building

do a horrible job at folding laundry.

And this is the kind of stuff that China

is working on.

You know, China's kind of just like

they're eating our lunch with

manufacturing. They are creaming us. And

in part, it's because China's government

is very different than ours. They can

unify their country under we will

build battery infrastructure for

electric vehicles. We will build out

rare earth minerals. We will build out

robotic armies. We will build the best

drones in the world. Those are

directives. Drones in the world. Those

are directives that come from the top

and then they happen. Whereas in

America, we get, "Hey, I'm running for

office." And then you get the phone

call, "Hey yo, it's your homie Vlad. Yo,

you know, we could use a little less uh

SEC regulation around stable coins and

tokenization and and you know, crypto.

While we're at it, I got my Gemini Bros

here. you know, we were thinking um of

looking for a candidate we could throw

like a hundred millies at, you know,

just to help him with a little bit of

funding. Uh cuz uh you know, we we we

believe in you. You know, we believe in

you, but there are other options as

well. You know, nobody likes crypto and

to token what more than I do. Hm.

Obviously being a little physicious

here, but I don't think that's too far

from reality.

But this is why I hate politics, okay?

It's very slimy. It's it's disgusting.

This is why like when when I ran for

governor in California, I learned so

much about how broken the game is. And

you know, we funded with you guys. You

know, we got over one vote per dollar we

spent, which is phenomenal. You know,

Gavin Nuskum was spending like $15 per

vote that he got and we got almost a

million votes. You know, we we did

really really well. But the point of

that is like I didn't take any special

interest money or lobbying money or

whatever. But that's also probably why I

didn't lose or why I didn't win because

I didn't have all that money to spend,

right? So like politics and money. But

unfortunately when when you realize that

the reason this tangentially makes sense

is because China doesn't have that

problem. They're in power. They don't

have to worry about sucking the titty of

some industry that wants uh uh you know

once you know regulation or their SEC

lawsuit or the you know dropped or their

Trevor Milton you know out of jail or

whatever because you know in exchange

for donations to politics because

they're in power so it doesn't matter.

So it's no surprise that China corners

rare earths. Now, in fairness, we corner

AI chips, but interdependence

has always been a tool for the United

States. And right now, what we're kind

of doing is it's it's sort of like we're

dismantling our jet engines while we're

in the middle of flying. And we don't

have the tools to put it back together.

China has the tools. We used to, you

know, think Swift Banking. The Swift

banking was basic banking system was a

way to sort of say to all of our trading

partners, hey, hey, yeah, let's use the

Swift banking system. Let's all work

together. And then when terrorism struck

in 9/11, we were able to use the Swift

Banking system to go track down

terrorists and scumbags who kill

Americans.

Now, obviously, there's a limit to

government surveillance, and we saw the

risks of overreach of that with Edward

Snowden and the Patriot Act and the

problems with this. Uh but but remember,

China doesn't give a flying f about any

of this. They are basically able to use

the weapons of US interdependence where

everybody relies on the United States

and kind of turn it into now everybody

relies on China from a manufacturing

front, from a technology front, from a

weapons front, from now a rare earths

front, China's really smart in that. and

they realize that if they put up a

stand, there's going to be this US

versus them where basically China starts

squeezing Europe to say, "Hey, you know,

we're going to hurt you if you support

Trump too much." Right? It's also why

why do you think Donald Trump hasn't

actually put secondary sanctions on any

other country buying Russian oil yet?

China and India

because it's not powerful enough.

China's too strong.

You know, Biden tried fighting China,

too. We worked with the Netherlands

under the Biden administration to limit

ASML exports to China for the EUV, uh,

you know, and ultra violet lithography

machines, uh, and extreme ultraviolet

lithography machines. We tried limiting

some of the best exports of these

machines to China. And then, of course,

China just ended up stealing the

technology and the manuals for how to

design these systems. So again, like

nobody here is saying China is without

fault, but China has political unity

where they can really hurt us. And what

we're doing is we're picking a fight

with a unified, very powerful country

without actually having our own

replacements set up yet. you know, like

maybe we should build out our rare earth

mining first, which we haven't done and

won't do until like the end of the

decade before we pick a fight with

China. Just just saying it's crazy idea,

right? But the problem is we don't

really have a government that can help

support these sort of investments

because a it's so divided by politics

and b it's now actually getting worse

because Donald Trump is basically

gutting the very government weapon that

we need against China.

Let that sink in for a moment. We are

literally gutting staff at the Office of

Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.

That is a perfect example of

institutional decay. China is doing the

opposite. Half of the staff at the

National Security Council, which

coordinates security across the entire

government, gone. State Department,

massive cuts, all going to the Oval

Office. the amount of ambassadors that

have empty or ambassador ships that have

empty seats right now internationally

probably not so good for diplomacy or

building that interdependency whereas

what's China doing China's going around

opening the legs going hey don't worry

we'll fill the void because remember one

thing when it comes to diplomacy or

regional hegeimons or whatever when a

strong existing power leaves or pisses

off its trading partners by monetizing

what it's built up for decades, which is

what Trump's doing. He's monetizing our

reputation banks, right? And he's

draining those banks. Eventually,

they'll be empty. Well, what happens

when you do that is you create a power

vacuum. And anytime you create a power

vacuum, somebody else steps in. So,

while we degrade the United States

government, China is promoting

government integration, not just in

China, but around the entire world. This

is really an economic and governmental

weapon. Much like back in the day, it

used to be, hey, who had more nukes?

Today, it's like who's got the economic

power. So, all of this for now, these

short-term deals and everything, all

this sort of like tariff coercion and

supply chain stuff or whatever, this

works great in the near term, but in the

long term, we are going to be depleting

our institutional banks or our or like

well, the systems that America stands

for. And it's a problem because all of

that just leads China to say we're going

to dig in. I don't actually think

China's going to roll over on the Tik

Tok deal, and I don't think that China

is going to roll over on these trade

negotiations. Now, is it possible that

Donald Trump tacos and we get more

90-day delays? Of course, that's very,

very likely. But the closer we get to

midterms, you get this duality

happening. The closer we get to

midterms, the more Donald Trump wants to

look strong against China and the more

those original tariff impacts start

biting, which remember we're just at the

beginning of that 6-month cycle. Now,

Scott Bessett, Treasury Secretary, has

been suggesting that talking could avoid

this problem with China, but here we

are. We're supposed to be preparing for

talks, and now the talks are maybe

falling apart. Donald Trump's on one

hand suggested maybe we won't talk,

maybe we will. It's neither confirmed

nor cancelled. It's a little confusing

at this point, but for now, we still

rely on each other, China and the United

States to a lot. So hope is that cooler

heads will prevail and we'll just delay

this stuff for a little while longer. So

a lot of what I just said, you have to

think about that as like very very long

term, right?

The direction we're going in is not

great. But what we got to now think of

is what do we do in the short term?

Well, the short term tells us that

it's all going to come down to this

week. This week, markets are going to

tell us how much they're caring about

these nearterm catalysts, right? So,

short-term, long-term, short-term, what

are we looking at? Earnings expectations

are we're going to smash and beat. The

high bar is set. Job concerns. We

probably won't get jobs data until

November. So, do we really care? Maybe

not. Capex spending, honestly, is

probably going to keep going. Even if

the stock market falters for a few

weeks, probably going to keep seeing

deals and blowing of money. Like, I

don't see that stopping until, you know,

you actually get real economic damage.

And I think it's too soon to call for

massive economic damage. Now, of course,

it's possible that the stock market

selloff lasts so long that the ability

to spend money on capex by raising money

through the stock market fades. That of

course is going to hurt the capex cycle.

But that's more of like a second or

third order effect. You know, at first

we got to get through these catalysts.

So, if we get through these catalysts

and we ignore the job issues, we're okay

with the Fed cutting, you know, two or

three times between now and next summer,

and we continue to hope that there's no

tariff impact and maybe Trump tacos and

we get more 90-day pauses,

everything could kind of keep going. We

might get some volatility, but

everything could kind of keep going

for now. The problem is we are

definitely building up a lot of debt.

Not just debt in the trade war or

government debt with our ability to

fight China in the long term or labor

market debt. These are all things that

we're going to have to pay for at some

point in the future and they'll probably

be a pretty darn nasty downturn at some

point in the future. Near-term though,

the only thing people are going to care

about so the next six months is taco.

And if we get taco, the euphoric party

could keep going. So, I'm going to be

looking at earnings over the next two

weeks very, very closely. Again, I'm

expecting to see a continuation of

capex, not too many job concerns. And

even though markets might trade down

because there's nervousness over what's

going on with this trade war, I don't

know that it's enough to be a

recessionary impact. Almost certainly

isn't. Now, if the market like if this

week starts a sell-off that ends up

lasting for the rest of the year, like

we don't get a Christmas clause rally,

you know, Santa Claus rally, Christmas

clause, then a market downturn itself

could actually lead to true firings and

economic pain. And that's where we

always get back to this debt. We've

already built up the six-month

unemployed chart. You already know that

chart's been going up for a while. We

are building up massive debt on that

front. But it's also worth remembering

that that 102 yield curve sits at 52

basis points right now. We are above

shock territory. This could be the straw

that actually pushes us into a 100 basis

point on inversion. Then we're in true

shock. Market continues to sell off.

That's when you get the layoff cycle and

that's when you really get the poopy

dupies. So, let me bottom line all of

this. Okay,

next few weeks are critical. We need

taco to keep the party going. We must

taco to keep the party going. We must

keep the debt going and avoid the margin

calls. We must avoid people paying off

their debt. And we must pray that

earnings beat the way we already expect

them to beat or more. As long as that

happens, we could be okay for a little

while longer. But yeah, we're on

borrowed time. Now, if we start missing

on earnings, the trade war intensifies,

then yes, we are at the most shockprone

we probably have ever been in the

history of financial markets. We today

are probably the most shockprone ever

and that is scary. And if any of that

makes you fearful, no, don't worry about

getting life insurance. Instead, join

the Me Kevin membership and see exactly

when I hit the sell button before

anybody else does.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Pafra there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.