The Fed JUST Reset Rate Cuts & PUNTS Banking Crisis.

I'm not sure whether to be excited or

shocked and really concerned after this

fed meeting no not because of the

economy but because of what the FED did

not say now we'll talk about what they

did not say in just a moment which is

absolutely ridiculous but more

importantly right now we'll focus on

what happened today okay so let's go

through it just like we've got it at

ec.com it's all broken out and I will of

course give you some added context fed

rates stay unchanged really weird two

things they did here though they removed

that the banking system is sound and

resilient they removed that they removed

comments about tighter Financial

conditions because Financial conditions

have loosened and they removed

commentary about the potential for

additional monetary policy firming they

removed that and changed that with or

turned that into Inc considering any

adjustments to the target range for the

FED funds rate the committee will

continue to assess incoming data okay

fantastic so what's interesting here is

jome Powell said a few things that were

quite bullish at the beginning of the

meeting beginning of the meeting starts

off bullish we're well into restrictive

territory we've been below trend on job

gains in the uh prior few months

compared to the months before that that

was interesting to me because we've

obviously talked about the idea of

loosening labor markets and the

potential that there's more of a balance

now towards making sure we're not

causing unnecessary employment jome

Powell he's almost like it's almost like

he wanted to cut already and and so he's

sending these little signals but he's

not allowed to because they're trying to

use the March meeting as their signaling

tool think about this for a moment okay

we'll draw this out really quick but

this is what I think they're doing

they're saying here you go we're going

to go into the January meeting and we're

going to punt in January then we're

going to go into the March meeting and

what we're going to do is we're going to

give an updated summary of projections

so we're gonna punt January which was

expected we're going to punt March but

we're going to give the market maybe a

dovish summary of economic projections

right so you take the two CPI and the

two job reports you take those and if

you need to cut you can but you probably

just give a

doish sep summary of economic

projections then he answered the

question very clearly hey if interest

rates stay the way they are or rather

inflation stays the way it has been on

the 6th month which is

1.9% then policy would be in a different

place today absolutely that is a quote

of his so if we stay on the trend we're

on now rates are way lower okay the

question is will we stay on the

six-month path and in order for them to

feel comfortable of that we are going to

punt January give a summary of economic

projections for March and then may one

is probably going to be the more likely

cut time keep in mind drum Powell said

that March is not the base case so March

is not the base case for a rate cut made

that very clear some of the other things

he noted labor demand is exceeding the

supply of workers he did in his speech a

few times Dodge the 6-month PC I think

the reason he dodged the 6-month PC

multiple times which you can see on this

chart the 6-month PC is right here this

like orange line it's 1.9% the 3month is

like

1.6% so I think the reason jome Powell

Dodges the six and the thre Monon is

because he's he he has his prescription

from all the other people of the fed and

they're like look man you need to buy us

until May okay whatever you need to say

buy us until May every other freaking

meeting JP comes up there he's like

inflation on the 12 month is this on the

the six month is this on the 3 months

it's this this time yeah inflation on

the 12- month is still

elevated and then goes dark we he knows

this is

happening so somehow he's trying to buy

time for the other members of the FED

kicking this can down to May and I think

I figured it out now what scares me and

this is the part that scares me I too

thought May was more likely until they

decided they would end the bank term

funding program so I thought they're

going to cut in May it's not going to be

March then they end the bank term

funding program and I'm like ooh ending

the bank term funding program you're

going to end up having to cut in March

then what happens today New York

Community Bank collapses 37% if you

haven't seen my video on it yet it's a

big deal the freaking stock still down

37% this is a massive Bank this is a a

bank that has over $80 billion in

customer deposits and it's down 37% on

the day they're losing more money

quarter over quarter they're taking more

losses and they don't have any more cash

to pay out based on my reading okay

watch the video I have a full video on

the channel about it the New York

Community Bank another big bank failure

is in the Brewing but this is what

actually gets really scary is Jerome

Pal's basically like what banking crisis

we're going to cut in may not March not

only that not a single reporter okay not

a single freaking reporter asked about

the fact that from the statement they

removed

quote the banking system is sound and

resilient so they removed the banking

system is sound and resilient then after

removing the banking system is sound and

resilient what did I just tweet on

Twitter on X I wrote what the f not a

single question on Bank stability at

today's fed meeting after New York

Community Bank Flagstar plummets 37% and

the FED removes banking is sounding

resilient from their statement and and I

go were the reporters instructed not to

ask about banking or were they blind so

they're either dumb and blind or they

were asked not to ask about banking

because this is a big deal so maybe

somebody woke up this morning like I

only have to do the FED meeting today

I'm going to stop doing any kind of

research this is crazy absolutely nuts

okay anyway going back to eack oh

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uh you get those as well okay so what

else uh Dr Powell says we thought we

needed a softening economy now this was

bullish he says we thought we needed a

softening economy but we might not need

a softening economy and if we cut too

late we could end up hurting the economy

too much we have confidence in the

economy but we want greater confidence

on inflation he refused to give how much

time that greater confidence would be

does he need 7 months 8 months 10 months

12 months of data what does he need

because he makes it clear that the

six-month path of inflation right now is

good and he made that clear later he did

mention the stock market started selling

off after he mentioned this he mentioned

that hey we're not declaring Victory

there's still some healing going on in

labor and the supply chain uh uh side

and we have no idea exactly where things

are going to go and if they're going to

disrupt inflation his worry is that if

inflation anchors above 2% on the 12

month then we have to hike more or stay

higher for longer right stay at well

basically stay at 5.2 54 longer if

inflation anchors below 2% he says that

would not be what we would want uh and

that would basically imply rate Cuts uh

he's asked you know he asked he's asked

sort of about a summary of the economy

and he says look growth is still strong

labor market indicates the labor market

is strong two years of Labor Market

under 4% that hasn't happened in 50

years 6 months of good inflation data

this is a good situation let's be honest

this is good but there is a chance we

could see growth which hasn't happened

yet there is a chance we could see more

pain in the labor market uh and there's

no guarantee that 12-month inflation

will come down so he's really looking at

that 12 month to be con uh convinced

that it's down does that mean he's going

to wait 6 months probably not because he

would go too far uh now we did this is

shocking we did not end up getting Bingo

uh we got a lot of items here but we did

not get bingo today uh we did not hear

anything about that banking sound and

resilient otherwise we would have had

Bingo that he said that every freaking

meeting that should have been an easy

one didn't talk about New York Community

Bank Red Sea geopolitics manufacturing

China Germany nothing the only thing we

talked about at this meeting was

basically uh PC over and over and over

again we didn't even talk about the bank

term funding program bro this is like

critical information are the banks going

to owe all of their money back at the

bank term funding programs expiration a

or I mean cuz if they owe it all back

when a banking crisis are they going to

get loan extensions or they going to

have some kind of repayment period what

if a bank needs help afterwards but

these are important questions this is

like the first time I'm like pulling my

hair out going bro what why are these

questions like mental these were so bad

uh I don't get it so either the FED is

trying to like hide the banking issue uh

in the bank term funding uh crisis or

they're blind to it and and I don't know

which one's more scary that it's being

censored or people are blind to the

problem I don't know but it's a

problem uh regarding March he made it

clear that March is not the base case we

already touched on that the reverse repo

facility does not have to go to zero to

start having cuts and yes you could have

Cuts with QT okay great uh so now the

big question is what happens all right

here's what's gonna happen the market

needs to

unpriceable for March so we're going to

go from a coin toss to like 20% okay

that's why the market is red the

Market's going to have to absorb that we

have to wait six more weeks between

March 20th and May 1st for the rate cut

big deal it's 25 basis points for 6

weeks suck it it's not that big of a

deal but the market is going to have to

eat that up and so the Market's going to

have a little bit of an adjustment here

once we finally unpriced the March rate

cut then we need to pay attention to the

banks the rest of

earnings uh and uh and then we just sit

here and pray and within the next uh

probably two weeks we're expecting to

fundraise for househ hack.com uh again

if you want more updates on the real

estate startup there's a link down below

we have uh another update uh video that

we posted about a week ago and we'll

have another one coming out soon go to

ec.com to see my full summary on uh you

know pretty much the research that we do

some of the things that we're paying

attention to uh and then of course go to

meetkevin.com to check out that coupon

code for the courses on building your

wealth and access to those course member

live streams in the meantime uh huge

thank you really appreciate all of you

it's uh you know it's been a ride the

last few uh uh few years and the fact

that uh you know somewhere around 22,000

of y'all chose at the same time to hang

out with me uh is pretty remarkable so

uh as a as a thank you go

yourself is that clear all right I had

to do it anyway that's the FED update

thanks so much I'm going to pay

attention to the banks now if you

haven't watched the rest of the bank

videos go watch the bank videos join me

in the market open live stream why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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