Capitulating. The GREATEST Housing & Stock Great RESET.

oh boy could the great housing and stock

market reset be upon us in this video

we're going to discuss a problem that

unfortunately might not be

realized and if we come to realize it

could be really bad for stocks and real

estate before I talk about the problem

which we'll get to in about 30 seconds

it's worth noting what's going on in the

world fear fear gaug is back over 20

we've had the worst October in the stock

Market in 5 years real estate in the

last 45 days has hit a wall we are

studying the market on a daily basis

with my real estate startup and we see

the impact into the wall it's worsening

by the day allocations are getting cut

to stocks just like they were getting

cut in the 2022 bar Market back to

October of 22 levels that's where we're

getting cut back to that was like that

was the bottom of our stock market over

the last few years uh with the exception

of coid obviously was October of 22

we're now cutting stock allocations at

companies on Wall Street per Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs and otherwise to October

of 2022 allocation levels some of the

steepest losses have been seen in the

NASDAQ in The Last 5 Years and look

everybody has their turn to be right

it's really easy to make fun of the

Bulls when they had their turn and then

stocks correct it's easy to make fun of

crypto when they had their turn to be

you know go to 69k and then correct it's

easy to make fun of bears when you know

they had their have their turn now and

then eventually they won't have their

turn again everybody goes through their

cycle I really believe that but

something that's critically painful now

is that Goldman Sachs believes the

Federal Reserve won't be done keeping

their boot on the next of the

economy until jobs print negative that

is until the economy actually starts

firing people people actually start

losing their jobs that's when the

Federal Reserve might finally be done

because that's when their Narrative of

Maximum employment starts getting hurt

and that's the first time they have to

start evaluating uh-oh well if right now

we have maximum employment then we just

need to fight inflation but as soon as

that maximum employment gets threatened

then is the first time they can

critically ask themselves okay have we

done enough and until the job Sprint

goes negative we might be suffering with

boot so why is that what is this thesis

that contributes potentially to a longer

term great reset well it has to do with

cash and I want to start about thinking

about this cash idea

from the real estate point of view and

then you're going to see how it relates

to stocks but nobody's made this

connection as far as I'm aware it's

something that through the research and

studying and reading that we do we're

like oh wow first real estate prices

year-over-year in many markets are down

0 to 10% it's not actually that horrible

when you consider that mortgage rates

are now over 8% and and they were under

3% that's an over 500 basis point move

in mortgage rates which should reduce

buyer purchasing power by

50% yet prices in some markets like

Florida are slightly positive year-over

year the national average is down maybe

about 5% and some other markets are

maybe down 10 to 15% especially the coid

markets where we're seeing kind of a

coid reversal it's kind of like the

markets that boomed the Boise's and the

Austin they're having a little bit of an

unwinding and the markets that people

were fleeing are maybe a little bit more

stable at least when it comes to

California and Florida is this unique

exception where despite homeowners

insurance rates that are so unaffordable

people don't even want to have

homeowners insurance anymore people are

still flocking to Florida but what's the

cash thesis the cash thesis is that

people had so much extra wealth built up

during the pandemic so much in excess

savings that they are actually able to

insulate the loss of their 50%

purchasing power by accepting a higher

level of payments as a percentage of

what they otherwise would have been used

to so in other words if you're like hey

you can afford a $500 a month car

payment and you're used to a $500 a

month car payment then all of a sudden

somebody gives you $50,000 in stamy

money let's just say I'm being extreme

here okay to make the point and then

somebody's like you want that new car

well now the payment's going to be a

thousand bucks you're like dude I got an

extra 50 man like what's another six a

year like no problem I have the car paid

off before I'm out of my

50 the same to obviously a different

extreme could be what's happened in the

housing market where you actually had so

much propping up of excess money that

what did you end up getting left with

you ended up getting left with people

who had such a larger amount of coffers

that they're like no problem I'll take

the higher interest rate cuz I want that

house I want that property I want to

live given that and I will refinance it

when rates are lower I've got to have it

now because I can afford it now I don't

know if I'll be able to always afford in

the future but I want it now because the

pandemic taught us that life is short

unfortunately that attitude is exactly

what Jerome Powell has to squeeze out of

us it's a little graphic but it's kind

of like getting waterboarded okay like

you get waterboarded in torture okay

it's like you're you're getting Li

thrown down on the table and Drome pow's

doing this and you know they're dumping

buckets of water on us if you get up and

go that all you got I'm still buy that

house I'mma still buy the dipon stocks

can be like all

right and then you get it again how

about now I still feeling good how about

now and it's

literally the economy getting

waterboarded the economy is getting

tortured the economy is just still so

resilient and strong it's not until you

actually start choking near death which

will be measured by job loss the FED

might U-turn and that's why and it's

it's it's so interesting because

everybody always wants to be right

everybody knows people do their best and

people are right people are wrong I've

been right many times but I've also made

some oopsy dupsies not to mention any

names and face oopsy dupsies uh still

hope uh but anyway take a look at this

TS Lombard was a longtime B okay they've

been a bear throughout 2022 and that's

why they got a lot of popularity like

Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley bear

throughout 2022 what happened in the

summer of 2023 when the stock market was

going straight up for months in a row

they actually flipped Morgan Stanley's

like you know what or Mike Wilson's like

I was wrong now and and and they they

flip they're like you know what it's

time to go bullish uh you've got TS

Lombard that's like you know what we're

increasing our allocation to equities

because have to because you know we

don't want to get left behind or TS

Lombard here said that those are things

we covered this summer The Bears felt

they were so wrong that even the Bears

capitulated and you know what that was

the sign of the top folks hindsight is

2020 and I missed it when the Bears

started capitulating that was our

warning sign that was our red flag when

Mike Wilson and TS Lombard your resident

Bears get up and say

we can't handle it anymore this economy

is too strong and they stop torturing

the economy as bears

do then all of a sudden that's when you

know you've hit a peak and guess what

jpow the torture he just keeps going but

you know what there is a risk that he's

not oh I'm looking at the wrong camera

there is a oh well you got my side shot

there is a risk that jow is going to

just keep going until our

GDP approach us under 2% which TS

Lombard actually believes it could

happen in Q4 they think that earnings

recession will drive us into a

deterioration below 2% that Q3 was an

anomaly but Q4 q1 will drive us below 2%

in fact they expect real GDP which is

how we measure GDP inflation adjusted to

be 1.5% in Q4 which will still make our

annual GDP rates we over 2% but the

point is we'll be squeezed down to

finally below trend is that finally

what's going to lead to joblessness and

then the FED u-turning

possibly but it's not just TS Lombard

it's even folks like Goldman Sachs who

are saying we need to see the

joblessness we need to see the tortures

Flinch and the reason the Market's done

so well is because people have had this

excess cash to buy the home and to buy

the stocks the problem with that is you

don't convince the FED that they've done

enough so what happens when people are

finally out of cash and this is where it

gets interesting think about this what

happens when people finally say I'm done

in the real estate market you know what

that looks like that looks like every

seller and their mom right now saying we

are going to put our homes on the market

in Spring and then what if the buyers

then don't have cash and all of a sudden

you see yes low inventory but low buyers

now creating some balance but now buyers

have dropped even lower so you're seeing

real estate hitting a temporary wall but

then what happens when Real Estate

inventory starts doing this that's what

we're watching closely with my real

estate startup deadline to invest in

that for 2023 here is November 1st go to

house hack.com to learn more Somebody by

the way in our last house hack video

absolutely nailed it it's a first

commenter that I've I've I've seen that

probably summarized what we're trying to

do with that company so succinctly uh

and and they saw s the vision so well

the mini funds part of your company is

fascinating me the most it's over here

on this um more Niche video our first

renovation by real estate startup we

have multiple Renovations going but mini

funds the mini funds part of your

company is fascinating me the most it

seems you may be selling the real estate

to institutions investors as a property

backed security that then has instant

positive Equity since you bought them at

a discount still going through the

offering circular but if you pull pull

this off this is crazy stuff

man no guarantees in the startup World

anyway what happens in the spring when

finally the money is

out that's the fear that exists now so

what does that mean does that mean paper

hand right now on all the stocks you

have stocks can often amplify the fear

beforehand so it's possible that you

paper hand now you've already hit your

second bottom there's no guarantee of

that though with real estate though

110% patience that's what house hack is

doing strategic deals where people are

begging us to buy the properties right

now no liquidity we literally have

people with like hoarder homes and moldy

moldy homes or or or situations that

they can't get out of where they're like

please we need the cash tomorrow like as

I'm starting to see that where people

sellers are like Kevin Kevin please

please please can you give us a like I'm

literally getting sellers Kevin can can

you give us a non a non-refundable

deposit please please that's the fear

you discount that to insulate yourself

anyway if you want to learn more about

the strategies that I employed to build

wealth and how to deal with this sort of

psychology of money make sure to check

out my courses at meetkevin.com they're

less than $100 each we've got a lot of

them coming out within the next few

weeks and we're really excited to prell

them they'll all be worth double check

out my housing startup at househ

hack.com uh or just go to meet kevin.com

you'll see all the little things at the

top including Financial advice and folks

I'll see you in the next video just do

keep in mind even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser wearing a Christmas

sweater right before Halloween I'm a

licensed real estate broker and I'm

becoming a stock broker yeah stock

broker too this video is neither

personalized Financial advice nor real

estate advice for you it's generalized

perspective and that should make sense

right I don't know your personal

situation I can't give you taxt or legal

advice and any third party content I

show like these research reports I can't

endorse them I I can't tell you that

these are 100% correct I'm just showing

you and commenting on what other people

are saying uh and so remember that this

video is not reasonably sufficient

information for you to make an

investment or to evaluate a security uh

any products I promote could be

Affiliated probably are and the goal

obviously of providing value is to not

only make sure that my family has the

ability to survive uh but also that we

can be here to keep providing value we

just had little twin babies and we're

bringing them home very shortly I can't

wait to share them with you on video

thanks so much for watching we'll see

you soon bye not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take