wtf

Merry Christmas to the short sellers

because oh my gosh the market is selling

off again on some old data and we're

going to talk about that old data in

this video and it's quite remarkable but

it's you know what

just not nearly as remarkable as this

thing called the put call ratio which is

absolutely insane and in my opinion

setting up for a little squeezy dizzies

take a look at this this is the put call

ratio which basically asks okay how many

put contracts or short contracts are

there on the market versus how many call

contracts are there well you take the

numbers and you divide them so for

example if there are 150 puts 100 calls

put call ratios 1.5 simple math need a

further explanation rewind now well that

I should say that ratio is usually

bullishly directed right it's usually

sitting at a number under one which

means you have actually more calls than

you have puts even in March of 2020 we

sat at a put call ratio of like 0.86

over here at the end of 2018 we sat at

like 1.13 folks now we are sitting at

2.0 three and the the only chart that I

could get to go all the way back in time

goes back to 2004 is at least the oldest

chart I got which is a little annoying

because I'm like I want to see that.com

bubble but anyway this is the best we're

gonna have for now look at this even

going through at the very least the

great financial crisis we don't have as

many puts outstanding then as we do now

folks I would not be shocked whatsoever

if we are sitting or setting up I should

say for one of the greatest short

squeezes

in history ever

I personally believe this is just my

opinion that the only way you can make

money right now is by shorting at least

that's what it feels like right and I

think retail realized that realizes this

but because of the ease of trading that

we have today relative to how

complicated it was to do options back

during the great financial crisis I

think everybody their mommy their daddy

their Granddaddy and their

seven-year-old son are going on Robin

Hood going

sure oh I'm making money I like this

game

but when that squeeze comes the covering

oh

I think it's gonna be glorious now

that's of course Mr bias uh to the

upside uh meet Kevin flip-flop or Duty

leading next thing you know tomorrow

I'll be shorting the market too maybe I

already am I don't know you'd have to

join the courses on building your wealth

link down below to know what the heck

I'm doing

but that's the beauty about joining

those you get lifetime access to all my

flip-flops so if I have crazy flip-flops

in the future you get to be a part of

them you also get to be a part of all

the deals that we'll be analyzing for

house hack that'll be really fun we get

to be a part of a whole lot of things so

check out those programs linked down

below the coupon expiring December 27th

it's the holidays coupon see I got my

holiday sweater on what do you think and

and can anybody tell me what game this

is from it's certainly not from a game

that has short sellers

okay so why is the market actually

selling off today well we got the uh GDP

numbers for Q3 for the third damn time

I kid you not we just got the GDP

numbers for GDP for Q3 for the third

damn time

okay this is the third and final

revision of GDP

for July August September

so

July August and September

we still had companies

that were not really worried about

consumer demand in fact they were

worried about inventory but they were

optimistic about the holiday season

right Q4

in most company earnings that I read it

was not until October and November maybe

late September in some cases that they

actually started seeing consumers

spending less and they started to see

the implications of a recessionary

market it wasn't until October or the

end of September at the earliest but

wait a minute Q3 GDP represents July

August September

so of course you're not going to get the

worst of the numbers yet

why does that matter well it matters

because people are freaking out

that the numbers are a little hot

and have been revised up once again now

the revision up is a little bit of a

bummer but again we're looking at the

rear view mirror consider the following

the final read for Q3 GDP

came in at 3.24 annualized so they just

took the quarterly read multiplied it by

four

this was above the 2.93 read we had

about a month ago and above the 2.57

read we had at the end of October

so ever it just continues to get revised

up now it's over now the Q3 is finalized

and we're in Q4 so we'll get our

preliminary Q4 reads in January right

we're clearly out of that technical

recession right uh now the update from

that second estimate also had a change

from or for consumer spending they

showed that consumer spending moved up

from the previous estimate of 1.7 to

actually 2.3 percent which is also

higher than the two percent spend we had

in Q2 so in other words up from Q2 and

again revised up in fact if you look at

this uh graphically right here you can

see

the bulk of the third estimate which is

in Orange and the change in the third

estimate really sits on the right side

Financial Services Insurance a little

bit for food services and accommodations

increase other services on the far right

uh and then of course a little there on

the healthcare side you've got uh you've

got a little bit of a nut job

transportation service is roughly flat

housing and utilities actually down but

when you just look at this from a

Services point of view it's really

services that were popping off now why

is that so scary well services are so

scary to the Federal Reserve because the

Federal Reserve continues to tell us the

reason they have to be more aggressive

and Hike more and more and keep going

and keep going and keep going is because

they're worried about part three of

inflation remember folks part one is

Goods inflation that's going down part

two is uh what we have known as housing

inflation which we already see as going

down part three is uh Services inflation

specifically what that does to wage

inflation and that

kind of mixed hasn't really shown

indicators that it's going down yet and

so this GDP report is freaking markets

out that oh my gosh things are getting

worse not better but once again we're

looking all the way back to July August

September rather than looking forward to

what do we think is actually going to

happen in q1 which is unfortunate

because this means that once again the

Federal Reserve is looking in the rear

view mirror and potentially pushes us

into a dirty and dark recession where we

end up fighting deflation rather than

inflation because the FED overdoes it

now we'll see we're not going to hear

from the FED for another like five weeks

five and a half weeks which kind of nice

you won't hear from them until February

1st but what is the market pricing in

for a Federal Reserve terminal rate

well unfortunately it's up right we used

to this terminal rate back when when the

last fed meeting occurred was sitting at

4.9

then the last fed meeting occurred we

got a little bit more of a hawkish powie

wowie and what did it move up to it

moved up to about 4.95 but what did it

do over the last few days it moved all

the way up to

5.26 and I really really hate saying

this because it's pissing me off but

remember how I've been telling you that

there's one chart that just really needs

to go down one chart that thankfully is

starting to fall and soon enough it'll

be lower than those Peaks that we saw in

2018 and soon enough it'll be trending

down and it'll all be great in the

fedkin u-turn

uh

I have bad news

that chart is the five-year Break Even

chart and uh unfortunately that chart

actually over the last three days

decided to spike again

uh yeah that's not good and

unfortunately markets are still pricing

in this belief that we're going to have

a cut in 2023 you can see here this

orange line that kind of looks like a

hat how it kind of inflects where that

inflection is is November December and

that's kind of implying a potential uh

rate cut so in a weird way you have the

bond market futures Market saying okay

look we think inflation's coming down

but it's not plummeting for the

breakevens on top of that we think the

FED is going to give us a cut but we've

always had to be more hawkish with the

FED than what actual estimates have been

sadly and the FED unfortunately is just

staring in the rear view mirror looking

at Q3 data from a time before in which

we actually had companies starting to

freak the hell out about consumers and

consumer spending like they are in Q4

oh

and um you've got the most puts

outstanding we have ever seen in a very

very long time I think potentially ever

when that flips

it's gonna be glorious

and there's a potential

that flip either comes in January when

people start rebuying after their tax

loss harvesting doesn't have to be Jan

right away at the beginning of January

sometime in January it could be

after we get inflationed out in January

it could be after the FED meeting in

February or it could just be after the

FED u-turns nobody really knows

but there's got to be a glorious unwind

of the shorting that's happening

and I think it's going to be glorious so

buckle up