The Fed is about to Flip [PREPARE]

it's time to prepare for the Federal

Reserve meeting which is a special day

this June 12th will be very special

because not only are you going to get

the CPI inflation report at 5:30 in the

morning Pacific time 8:30 Eastern but

you're also going to get the FED on the

same exact day it's going to lead to a

lot of volatility in markets and here's

what to expect first you're looking for

CPI to come in month over month at just

0.1% with headline pretty good

core3 which is actually about. 28 right

now so really as long as we get

something in line with expectations on

CPI we should have a positive fed day

which should be bullish for markets you

just don't want CPI to come in with a 04

on that month over month because it's

probably really going to adjust what's

going on at the FED but the FED is

really concerned about two big things

one of those is potentially taking a gun

to the mark okay I mean taking uh taking

too big of a hammer to the market to try

to quell inflation when the reality is

we're starting to see some nastiness in

the actual weeds of the jobs data let's

be real jobs data that came out Friday

the headline looked fantastic it's like

oh look another blowout report but then

you go into the details and you're like

wait a minute part-time workers up

286,000 full-time workers down 625,000

now that's a wild number because that

means for every two full-time workers

that are leaving the industry one come

back as a part-time worker okay I wasn't

expecting the balloon there but yay

let's celebrate yay one person back as a

part-time worker but two people left

yeah we don't want to talk about

that that that like that's a problem and

the Federal Reserve looks past the

headline BS the political BS and they

look and go oh yeah we've got real

weakening here and remember the sectors

that are primarily growing are

government and healthc Care those are

late cycle not great fed knows that and

frankly if we send a signal to the

market that's going to send yields up in

the bond market we might induce another

bank failure I mean consider what

happened with the FDIC report we saw

failed banks in increase uh their uh

risky asset exposure by 15 billion or or

the number of assets that are exposed to

risky Banks increased by 15 billion this

is a good chunk we had a pretty big

increase in the number of not just risky

Banks but also the assets that are

exposed to risk uh by basically being

level four level five risk Banks which

is bad those are the worst levels at the

FDIC so the Federal Reserve really has

to balance this okay so GDP supposedly

is is over 3% which is great we're

booming as long as inflation is

relatively stable call it you know. 28

on that month over month we really got

to start talking about rate Cuts that's

a big deal and so I think the Federal

Reserve really wants to come out this

week and go just give us an inline

inflation report and then can we start

pricing in at least two rate cuts the

market right now is is pricing in uh 1.5

rate cuts for the year and that would be

in December and only8 rate Cuts before

or by November so the reality is you

might get one cut November maybe one cut

December or just one cut December that's

what the Market's pricing in now so you

are going to see this my guess you are

going to see this go the Dot Plot go

from three rate cuts which is what we

had the last time you're going to see

that go down to two to uh so that would

be very normal so this 4.6 here on the

fed's funds rate I think will probably

go to

4.8 now if they keep it stable at 4.6

the Market's going to Skyrocket and

moon if uh and and those are your trades

right so set this up for a moment you're

going to trade pre-market on CPI

obviously I'll be streaming live at the

meet Kevin uh uh Market Channel make

sure you subscribe to that one I'm live

every day at 5:25 in the morning uh so

we'll be covering that I'll go live at

like 525 520 is maybe a little early for

CPI we'll cover CPI if you get a

month-over-month Core read that's above

35 that ends up rounding up to 04 bad

bad news it's going to get put a bearish

taste on everybody's mouth for the fomc

that day okay that's your trade if you

get anything in line or lower bullish so

like.

28.3 or lower on the core month over

month bullish Moon okay good thing then

you might have some patience though

until the FED meeting because you'll

need the FED to reiterate it but they

will they will probably go down to two

rate Cuts but that's not actually going

to be bearish now if that fed funds

number goes because that's already

priced in right this being 4.8 is

already priced in now if that numberers

46 and they keep it stable at three rate

cuts for the year Moon if that number

goes to 5.25 and they price in zero rate

cuts for the year tank okay so that's

your play that's really what you got to

pay attention to do we really care about

the Federal Reserve GDP projections no

because we really already have those at

the Atlanta fed GDP and it's a they're

good numbers do we care about their

unemployment trajectories yes but do we

really think they're going to change

these much no because these unemployment

numbers are basically a reference to the

highlevel payrolls and establishment uh

and household reports which are quite

frankly skewed by immigration anyway now

is it possible that because we're now

quote unquote closing the Border we're

going to have uh uh a a smaller uh set

of job gains because immigrants uh even

undocumented immigrants can be counted

in some of these BLS labor reports they

should just call them the BS labor

reports but whatever yes they can be uh

and is there a potential that closing

the Border could actually lead to a

weakening in the jobs Market yes but

when well it'll take a few months uh at

least

and that's you know depending on how

much confidence you have that the border

is actually going to somehow magically

seal up but anyway so I don't know that

there's a massive near-term Catalyst

that says oh yeah this is the month

where the jobs data turns but if the

jobs data rolls over like it kind of

already has been in the underlying the

fed's going to start cutting more

rapidly what are the odds of a surprise

cut on on uh Wednesday zero what are the

odds of a coupon expiring Wednesday 100%

in fact we just added one it's coupon

code dotplot it's honestly it's a really

special day because when do you have the

fed and CPI on the same day I don't

think that's ever happened in my career

where they basically have to base their

meeting on CPI data that cames comes out

that morning that's crazy or base their

their sort of you know fomc projections

that's kooky and crazy so that's going

to be wild now there are a few plays

that I'm making and I I these aren't

guarantees they're Hedges but they're

are swing trades I'm talking about them

a lot in the stocks and sitech group and

just in the course member live streams

what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to

place uh maybe two short positions and

maybe I'll go for one call position a

little later this week and so my goal is

to be a little bit more like long

portfolio long Diversified train America

but I want to set up a few swing trades

that I think are going to give me an

asymmetric Victory if we have a riskof

movement which would be like CPI is a

little warm the fed's a little

ambivalent people are a little uncertain

the sell and may go away shows up in

June now that momentum's gone and so I

want to set up a couple shorts and maybe

a long as a swing trade and the goal is

to hold those depending obviously on

what happens with data on Wednesday that

could flip everything but my goal is to

hold those for about 30 days and I think

they're going to play out well for me

now obviously no guarantees not

personalized advice but really what I'm

trying to do is hedge myself for

somewhat of a bleed over the next 30

days as what we get this week just turns

into more uncertainty rather than

Clarity uh I I I think that's a lot of

what we get is just like okay that

didn't add much Clarity so we'll see

this is just a thesis I have uh

obviously if you want lifetime access to

those programs on building your wealth

go to me kevin.com coupon code. plot uh

we'll have it expire Wednesday and if

you have questions email us at staff

kevin.com so um as far as these these uh

these swings I always want people to

remember like my long portfolio the goal

is Diversified 20 30ish stocks you go

long train America that's that's my Mo

but in a trading portfolio you could

different things and Something's

Happened in trading recently that you

should be aware of we have gone from a

period of momentum which is May May m

momentum that's just a coincidence uh so

we've gone from a period of momentum

where you could go long a stock when the

trend was was up and it just kept going

you could go short a stock and it just

kept going uh when when the trend was

down momentum somewhat came with Roy and

kitty but it also sort of left with Roar

and kitty we've seen momentum

substantially slow down we're getting

more consolidation patterns and that's a

precursor to a downtrend so I'm about a

4 and a half on the bull bear scale

right now 10 Ultra bull one is uh Ultra

bear I'm about a 4 and a half right now

so I'm building up some more Hedges you

know I'm not like all in I'm not going

margin here I'm not going YOLO or

whatever and I'm staying away from the

short-term day trade momentum which

worked really well in May made a lot of

money in may obviously there was some

give back over the last week as we

transition to a consolidation period but

now my concern is we go from momentum to

consolidation to bearishness at least

for a brief period of time so from a

trading point of view we might get get

some uncertainty now again if we get a

glorious CPI report Wednesday morning

and a bullish fed okay well maybe then

you don't need your Hedges right then

maybe you just stick with the call uh

play uh that I'm probably going to be

setting

up uh within the next 48 hours so I'm

going to have a massive call play that

gets set up within the next 48 hours and

I think it's worth paying attention to

so stay tuned buckle up for that that'll

be really interesting so uh anyway yeah

these are my thoughts so well let me see

what else there is so we talked fed we

talked CPI projections we talked uh

let's see here we've got Catalyst Apple

could be by the rumors sell the news

today Nvidia posts spit usually by the

way post spit you're bearish so you've

had quite a few stocks that have gone

bearish post split Heisenberg had an

interesting post on this on uh on X

Tesla in the 6 days after the split -2%

Apple

uh 3 days after the split plus 10

following 3 days- 20% Amazon 6 days

after the split - 21% Google Plus 3%

after the split next four days minus 10%

and then Microsoft uh uh 10% decline

after the split so you can get sort of

like a near-term buff here on something

like an Nvidia but uh historically

splits are usually a little bit of a

toppy uh moment so that'll be very

interesting as well so uh yeah that's

okay now we've covered fed splits

inflation jobs trade versus long-term

thesis uh I'll have a real estate video

coming out stay tuned for that uh a lot

of really great insights from traveling

this weekend along with house hack uh uh

updates still hiring by the way we

really it'd be really cool to actually

have some like girl applicants because

it's like 90% or dudes actually lately

it's been like 100% or dudes which is

fine I'm just saying like if you're a

girl don't be afraid

uh but we're looking for bookkeeping

help um legal help so like if you're a

legal intern or a paralegal or whatever

uh software engineer if you just want to

be an intern whether you have experience

or you don't obviously if you don't have

any experience you want to learn intern

you know that's going to be a lot lower

pay than what what somebody with

experience would would uh um be able to

earn which makes sense it's totally fair

but uh you know my goal is always to

take people from intern train them and

and then and then boost you to uh uh to

great pay that's the goal so anyway

those are my thoughts thank you so much

for watching email us at jobs

meetkevin.com if you're interested make

sure to send a 60-second video of your

pitch thanks so much goodbye and check

out the coupon code at meetkevin.com

thanks bye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

Go congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any

thirdparty content I show shall not be

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

and shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate and actively managed

ET F I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house Haack nor am I presently acting as

a market maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house Haack to

always read the PPM at house.com