Yikes: Major Warnings & Trump Flips AGAIN

So we could see a significant decline in

consumer spending. Uh inflation

expectations have gone up. They know

they know that's going to happen and

businesses business investment in this

type of environment. I would really

expect it to decline. Um we would be

lucky to skirt a recession and I I it

should we I I would expect some

indications in the hard hard data soon.

There's a loss of confidence in US

economic policy and even perhaps the

safety of Treasury securities which are

the bedrock of and um the safest um

asset on the planet. Hey, in this video

I'm going to provide you a big bank

warning from Jamie Diamond over at JP

Morgan in his shareholder letter. I'm

going to break that down for you. We'll

keep it short. We'll also look at a

warning from Morgan Stanley and then I'm

going to give you a breakdown of all of

the tariff updates that you need to know

about. First, as just sort of an

introduction, mostly because I think

it's kind of interesting. Kevin Hed

comes out with an official position from

the Trump administration and just

minutes ago tells us there is zero

chance of a recession in 2025. Quote, no

chance. So, um, the government just told

us there's no recession, so I guess

we're good to go. So,

uh, party goes on. Uh, in honor of this,

the volatility index today is down

17.76%, which I thought was quite

patriotic and almost unironic. It was it

was just perfect. And that's mostly

because things really seem to have

calmed down. The fear indices have moved

from the lowest levels of extreme fear

to extreme fear, but not as extreme of

extreme fear, which is nice. For

example, on the uh greed and fear index,

we've moved from a four to a 22. So,

we're still in the extreme fear

category, but we're almost out of it,

which is leading a lot of folks to say,

"Hey, maybe the market bottom is in."

Well, this is where I think what we

should do is take a look at what JP

Morgan has to say. So, the first thing

that JP Morgan argues in their earnings

call is that it's way too soon to see in

consumer data if we're actually going to

go into a recession or not. And whether

we do or don't, JP Morgan is positioned

for a recession or not. Okay, I'm

bottomlining a lot of research for you

and a lot of the earnings call for you

to keep this simple for you. Jamie

Diamond says we have a 50/50 chance of a

recession. And so, yes, the odds of

recession are substantially higher today

than ever in the past. Uh, and while S&P

500's the the earnings for the S&P 500

are estimated to be at about 5% this

year, he believes that we're probably

going to be closer to -5 to

0%. So, he sees 0% in other words, no

growth in 2025 as a baseline. And I

think this is really interesting because

with course members this morning we were

analyzing some of the forecasts for

earnings for example for Nvidia along

with many other companies and we've seen

a lot of earnings revisions come in and

they've come in pretty harsh to where

the earnings revisions have really

slapped the growth estimates for some of

these companies pretty hard. And now

that lets us update our valuation models

a little bit combining what we think is

going to happen with you know sort of

what the Wall Street consensus is. And

like that's what I like to do. What's

Wall Street consensus? And then do I

believe that's low or high? And then I

could sort of project what I think a

fundamental value for a stock is from

there. This is obviously very different

from oh, Weeble stock is going up. Let's

buy it cuz it's going to go to the moon.

Um, it might be going to the moon right

now probably because only 2% of its

shares are outstanding, which is really

low. Newsmax was 6% of its shares

outstanding and it skyrocketed. and then

subsequently just like any momentum

stock crashed. So I expect the same to

happen at Weeble. Although I will say

before their preferred share adjustments

in 2023, they're actually profitable. So

I was kind of impressed by that. So good

for them. Congrats Weeble. But anyway,

that said, there's there's a lot you

could do here with real fundamental

analysis now that we're getting new

estimates coming out. And Jamie Diamond

gives you a little bit of a formula for

that. Don't expect much growth in 2025.

and he says, "Look, if we have a mild

recession, obviously things will be

worse. If we have a bad recession,

things will be even worse." They say

this, they talk about this in their

earnings call, but it's not so much a

matter of what's in the earnings call

about speculation over what's going to

happen with earnings that matters in

this trade warfare. What matters more to

Jaime Diamond is actually what's

happening on a global level. And this is

the Jaime Diamond warning and bank

warning. I'll provide you that. Then

we'll go into Morgan Stanley and other

tariff updates. The big JP Morgan or

Jamie Diamond warning is right here. It

basically argues that through tariffs,

we are potentially fracturing

relationships that we have that preserve

and prevent war. In fact, he argues the

following. We've got not only the war in

Ukraine, terrorism in the Middle East,

and the real possibility that Iran may

develop a nuclear weapon. In fairness,

supposedly we had pretty good indirect

talks this weekend with Iran. We'll see

how that develops. Everybody always says

that and then who knows. But anyway, uh

Europe's potential fragmentation,

ongoing trade disputes, the rise of

China. If Iran acquires a nuclear

weapon, many other nations around the

world will seek to acquire nuclear

weapons, presenting us with a

catastrophic situation. A nuclear a

global nuclear arms race is the worst

outcome that could happen to our world.

And this may be the greatest threat to

mankind's survival. Lastly, it is

extremely important to recognize that

security and economics are

interconnected. Economic warfare has

caused military warfare in the past. And

Jaime Diamond is right about this. And I

think as hyperbolic as it sounds that

we're talking about nuclear

proliferation, it shouldn't be. We've

been talking about nuclear

non-prololiferation for 30 years or more

now. But I mean do consider the

Palispanisian wars, Sparta versus

Athens, all about money. Ancient wars,

money. Dutch Republic versus England,

money. Napoleonic wars, Napoleon

Bonapart, money. Revolutionary war,

taxation without representation. Wow.

The Trump administration is literally

getting sued by a trade union for that

today because they argue Trump shouldn't

be able to use his emergency powers to

tariff to solve the national debt

because that doesn't deserve using

emergency powers. That's actually

basically a levy of taxation without

representation and that should be

conducted by Congress because Congress

represents us. Of course, Trump

administration argues, well, y'all voted

for me. But then again, we have

representatives for a reason. The war of

1812 was about money. The Opium Wars

were about money. People say Russia

Ukraine is about money. Although a lot

of people also argue that the war in

Ukraine is really just a proxy war

between the United States and Russia and

really the sides of the world. You have

the West, so Europe, Canada, uh, and the

United States along with like the likes

of Japan and South Korea against China,

Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Mind you,

North Koreans, listen to this. I I saved

this. Actually, I didn't save it. I I

read it and then I threw it away and

then No, Lauren threw it away and then I

had to get it out of the trash can. So,

I I resaved it, I guess you could say.

Recycling bin. Okay. But anyway, South

Korea, sorry, North Korea. North Korea

per the Financial Times has more than

11,000 soldiers in Russia. Not only

that, Iran we know has been supplying

drones to Russia. They manufacture

drones in Russia on their behalf. And

listen to this. This is the craziest

piece. And this is actually kind of

scary to me because mind you, China has

called us the enemy. Obviously, the

Trump administration has called China

the enemy. But this is kind of scary.

Look at

this. Kiev

claims Chinese fighters or in

Russia. Kiev

captures Chinese men fighting for Putin.

These are real issues where what we

really have is on our side, we have a

CIA that's basically targeting Russians

with US-made weapons, US-made bombs,

US-made intelligence, targeting

Russians, and the Ukrainians are pushing

the launch button, you know, obviously,

and much more. They're sacrificing their

lives, and they're fighting for for

their territory. But there's a lot of

CIA involvement here. They're basically

directly now attacking North Korea and

China on the battlefield through the

guise of Russia versus Ukraine. And so

when you put this together and sort of

the historical context that yes,

economic warfare can turn into global

warfare, Jaime Diamond doesn't actually

have a bad point. Now, of course, he

makes the generic arguments too that,

hey, we need better education in

America. Social media algorithms are

making people too divisive. He argues

that. He's got a whole piece on that. He

talks about how again we need more

education and we need more

industrialization in the United States

for national security purposes. We can

agree on all that good stuff, but I

actually think he provides a very real

warning that like who cares about just a

recession. This trade war is more than

just a recession. At this point, a

recession almost feels like a foregone

conclusion. I'll give you Morgan

Stanley's warning in just a moment, but

this isn't good. Especially since you've

got somebody as big as Jaime Diamond

arguing, hey, you know, be careful. This

trade war that's going on could lead to

a lot of unintended consequences and

they could be really bad for the longer

term future of America. All right,

enough of that. It's doom and gloomy

enough. I want to talk about what Morgan

Stanley says as a result of sort of like

all of this I don't know what you would

call it uncertainty or uh yeah you know

sort of Trumpism whatever you want to

call it art of the dealism right uh

before I do that I just want to quickly

shout out take me 10 seconds here the

MCA membership expires tomorrow at 11:59

p.m. Basically what that means is the

pricing that there is now is going to be

a lot higher uh after 11:59 p.m.

tomorrow's the 15th already. So, if you

want to lock in this pricing, look at

that. It's less than a buck 63 a day or

it's a buck 63 a day here. Buck 63 a

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and get access to all the courses, all

the new lectures, the trade alerts when

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streams where we literally talk tactical

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strategies, alpha report, everything.

You want to be part of this and the

fundamental analysis that we do,

consider subscribing. Go to mekevin.com

and you will lock in your price forever

guaranteed. The price will not go up on

you. that is great. But if you join

after the 15th, the price will go up and

when the price goes up, you're locking

in that higher price. So, this doesn't

make doesn't mean you get a bad price,

but it's going to be a lot more than

this. So, this is a pretty good deal.

And I encourage you to check this out

over at mekevin.com within well the

next, you know, 24 hours or however long

it is between when you're watching this

video and uh 11:59 p.m. on the 15th. So,

check that out over at mekevin.com.

Okay. So now we need to talk Morgan

Stanley and get through some of these

other Trump updates because there are a

lot of them mind you also. Oh yeah, this

is worth mentioning this as well. Look

at this. Uh China ready to work with

Vietnam. China is already working with

all of our allies. China's working with

Canada. China's working with the

European Union. China is working with

Vietnam. They're working with Japan.

Basically, all of our friends are

working with China. Meanwhile, now China

is essentially fighting us on the

battlefield in Ukraine. It's crazy. So

Jamie Diamond has a really good point

here and it's something we should pay

attention to. That said, Morgan Stanley

uh has some thoughts on this. So Morgan

Stanley argues that there's so much in

the way of volatility right now that you

kind of have to come into this expecting

that there's going to be more drama

coming. They literally say investors

should be prepared to be fooled many

more times. They say, "Fool me once,

shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on

me. Hold your convictions loosely and

keep your stop losses tight. If a master

plan exists, such as offsetting negative

economic impact with tariffs of the

tariffs with fiscal and monetary easing,

it's unlikely to work the way Trump

expects. So in other words, even if they

magically try to solve everything, don't

expect the economic damage is going to

be limited." Now, this is a pretty

negative POV by Morgan Stanley. And

honestly, I've seen a lot of pretty

negative institutions. It's one of the

reasons why I think today we had some,

you know, we ran at the beginning of the

day, we had a pullback in the middle of

the day, and a little bit of pullback at

the end of the day, too. But overall, it

was a relatively positive day, but we're

just not getting that aggressiveness to

the upside. Probably because a lot of

people are looking, saying, you know

what, this is the perfect time. We're

still relatively near all-time highs.

Let's take some money off the table.

Let's diversify. People are going into

gold. People are fleeing the dollar.

They're fleeing the treasuries market,

which is a mistake. If we go into a

recession, the Treasury market is going

to be your best yielding asset of 2025,

but whatever. That's my take, not

personalized advice for you. Uh, but

there are also risks, right? I mean,

look at the the spread between the

2-year and the 10ear. It's 53 basis

points. Anything over 50 puts you at

shock risk. Imagine you're at the gas

station, you spilled a bunch of fuel

over the floor and you're just waiting

for that guy to walk by who thinks it's

funny to throw a cigarette, you know,

flick a cigarette over at your puddle of

gas. This is a problem. That's the

situation we're in right now. And I

think that's why a lot of the

institutions are like, man, all right,

we think earnings estimates are going to

come down. We think growth is going to

come down. A lot of companies are going

to pull guidance. They're not going to

give us guidance because it's too soon

to tell what's going to happen. Academy

Securities has a POV on this. Uh they

suggest that we basically we need to

become familiar with this Trump behavior

where we say these outlandish things and

then or we do outlandish things and then

they just sort of get normalized and

then they go away. Like the last time we

heard anybody mention Canada as the 51st

state was Marco Rubio in mid-March and

Academy Securities is like are we just

giving up on that? Like are we no longer

annexing Canada? nobody's talking about

it anymore. And they kind of use this as

a way to say like, hey, maybe they'll do

that with stocks or or tariffs as well.

So, Academy Securities actually goes

bullish and they say, quote, "I can be

comfortable that for now the lows are in

for stocks and the wides are in for

credit spreads as the economic slowdown

I fear will take longer to play out and

might be preempted by rapid policy

alignment." Okay. So, in other words,

Academy Securities has hopes that, hey,

you know, we'll get our tax cut plan.

We'll get some positive movement on

tariffs and everything will be fine. And

in fairness, we got some incredible

exemptions this weekend that were really

good for big business. I'll put up all

the exemptions on screen. They're right

here. This is the list of uh categories

for exemptions. Computers, computer

parts, smartphones. Uh mind you also

certain manufacturing equipment that's

critical for companies like SpaceX where

they buy machines from China to

manufacture their Starlink chipboards.

Uh these are included in the exemptions.

A lot of people got pissed over the

weekend that this was just like a big

Wall Street bailout for big firms like

Apple or Nvidia and Dell and Microsoft

and they or Google and they really left

behind smaller businesses because toys

and furniture and all that stuff.

They're still subject to 140% tariffs

with China. Donald Trump to this came

back and said, well, you know, all these

are still subject to the 20% fentanyl

tariffs. We're just moving them to a

different bucket. And so you've got a

lot of this sort of like classic

Trumpism, which is not that they're

purposfully trying to be as, you know,

erratic as this. It just seems like they

sort of make a decision and then they

don't really think much after they make

the decision and they just announce the

decision and then when people are like,

"Wait, but what about this?" They're

like, "Oh, yeah. This is actually what

we meant." So, so this this is one of

the reasons we're getting this

volatility. And this is, I think, why

some institutions are like, "Just get

used to it." Like that's just what we're

going to have right now. But at least

now it feels like we're going down

rather than up. And in fairness that

seems true so far. You can see her here

uh contribution to average US tariff

rate by end use. This was before

liberation day. Uh this was on the

initial wave of tariffs. Uh here was

liberation

day. Here was uh liberation day with uh

a a walk back of liberation day. So one

week later when liberation day was

supposed to go into effect we

unliberated and this was without uh all

of the reciprocal tariffs on all the

other countries and then here we are

with the exemptions for electronic

components. So you can see the average

tariff rate has still gone from

somewhere around 2% to 24%. So we're

still at major tariff rates. you know,

Donald Trump is freaking out saying,

"Hey, it's not fair that, you know, the

mainstream media is is is purposefully

trying to ignore that we're trying to

say, you know, China is still products

from China are still subject to an

existing 20% fennel tariffs." He's doing

this out of somewhat of a frustration

because it has been very confusing to

follow exactly what all these changes

are. So, a lot of people are having

problems. And I'm not here to defend the

mainstream media. But it's just it seems

like every hour there's a new

interpretation of what's going on,

especially because right after this

post, then you got Bessant saying, "Hey,

we're still expecting to get a lot of

revenue from China and a lot of tariffs

to stay in effect for China." Then we

got Lutnik saying, "Remember this pause

is just temporary. It's coming back."

And again, all of it is really

exhausting. But I will say something

that is positive because I'm trying to

give you as much of a balanced POV as

possible is the Chinese embassy in the

US has said China is assessing the

related impact of this you know

exemption. This is a small step for the

US side to correct its wrong practice of

unilateral reciprocal tariffs. Okay,

that's kind of cool. Obviously uh there

are some other pieces from institutions

that say as a macroeconomist the issue

is uncertainty weighs on corporate

confidence and this is probably going to

be a lot worse than 2018 to 2019 which

significantly reduces our economic

outlook and this is fair and so this is

kind of where you just have to pick

which boat you're on you know are you on

I don't care if we go into a recession

we'll be fine which is basically the JP

Morgan way do you think we need to be as

worried read as, "Oh, we're going to

have a nuclear war and an apocalyptic,

you know, fallout." Probably not. But

are there reasons why people are fleeing

to gold and away from the dollar and

treasuries? Yeah, because it's becoming

a little harder to understand and

predict America. Some people are

predicting that Donald Trump wants to

just default on the US debt, default on

treasuries. Basically, stop paying

interest on treasuries or stop paying it

back. That'd be crazy and it would

mostly just hurt Americans. He's also

been talking about potentially delisting

Chinese ADRs, which just again hurts

global confidence in investing in

America. So, there's some real problems.

Again, maybe they're all just part of

the art of the deal, just like, you

know, pardoning Trevor Milton or

pardoning the three fraudulent founders

of BitMX or, you know, firing the person

who was pursuing fraud charges against

the executive over at Fat Brands after

Donald Trump. donated or had donations

from that executive who worked for Fat

Brands and then all of a sudden that

prosecutor gets fired because, you know,

oh, some executive made delicious

donations to the Trump uh, you know,

administration. Uh, another one that was

found guilty of market manipulation and

fraud, Justin Sun invested $30 million

into Donald Trump's World Liberty

Financial, which is really nothing at

this point. uh and Donald Trump and the

you know Trump children have taken

control of the whole organization

basically. Uh this person donates

donates invested $30 million into World

Liberty Financial and then all of a

sudden oh charges

dropped. So you know a lot of people are

like huh this is interesting including

like why all of a sudden are so many

white collar fraud and bribery charges

being dropped? Oh, because we ended the

enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt

Practices Act. Why did we do that? Well,

the Trump administration says because in

other countries bribery is normal and we

want to be competitive. Okay, fine. But

the point is people like there are

businesses and companies and investors

who look at the America and they're

like, "Okay, this is like the premium

server where they're going to ban

hackers."

And now all of a sudden somebody came in

and started sound like nah we we don't

really care if people are hacking. Like

if somebody hacks, you know, good on

them. I guess they figured out how to,

you know, cheat better than you. Uh and

and that's frustrating a lot of people.

So that's just like I'm not trying to

take a POV on it. I'm just trying to

voice the opinions of of some. And

that's why you're seeing somewhat of a

flight from the dollar and bonds and

into gold. And it's also why you're

seeing some softness in stocks. Like

you're not really seeing a skyrocketing

in stocks again with the exception of

like Weeble where like 2% of their

shares are outstanding which is crazy

again because Newsmax has six had 6% of

their shares outstanding as as free

float you know tradable float uh and

they skyrocketed and then died like a

meme stock. Weevil only 2% outstanding.

Wild. So even lower even trying to go

for small trying to go for even less

liquidity. It's crazy. So anyway, all of

this I think is really interesting and

it really goes to show why there's just

so much uncertainty. But I think as an

investor, you just have to look at all

this and say, "All right, can I get

through a recession?" Yes or no. If you

can, great. Then just keep investing in

what you're good at. If you're good at

buying the dip, keep doing that. If

you're good at real estate, keep doing

that. If you're good at both, do both.

For us at House Hack, we're going to

keep raising money. You're welcome to

invest with us if you want. You earn a

5% yield. You get upside protection uh

because you get 100% of the upside of

the stock as long as our stock value

goes up and you get downside protection

which is kind of cool. Check it out over

at house hack.com. We have an accredited

race going on and a nonacredited race.

Make sure to read the uh paperwork

because this video can't be a

solicitation. All that said invest the

way that you think is right for you. But

so far things do seem to be chilling

out. V is chilling and we're basically

just gearing up for the next shock

because that treasury curve suggests

we're primed for it. Hopefully it

doesn't come. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.